Patrick Mahomes 2023 film review summary: Beyond the box score

Looking at every charted week (18 of them!) of 2023 for the Chiefs QB.

This article is unlocked for everyone to read and share, as it provides the context of how Mahomes played beyond the box score in tough circumstances last season. If you like this sort of analysis beyond the box score, you can subscribe for $12 a year by clicking the below link. We’ll be doing this stuff all year for Mahomes again in 2024.

Every year since 2013, I have reviewed and charted the vast majority of snaps taken by the Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback.

As you may imagine, since 2018 that’s been arguably the most fun job in the world. I’ve reviewed/charted snap after snap of the greatest start to a career any quarterback has ever had, and I’ve gotten to call it WORK. It’s been very rewarding, and also incredibly fun watching him change and develop as a QB over the years.

I always try to write a summary of the year’s film reviews each season. It’s a way to figure out if there are any trends to keep an eye on. It’s also a great deal of fun to see hours and hours of work translated into a neat little package of information, and I’ve always learned something I didn’t expect. You can find the 2021 Mahomes film review summary here and the 2022 Mahomes film review summary here (the older ones are available in the archives at my old stomping grounds of The Athletic).

Following the 2022 season, I wrote this about Mahomes summarizing his film from that year:

The short story is that Mahomes played quarterback at a higher level than he ever has in 2022, and also at a higher level than anyone else I’ve ever seen/charted. He’s managed to blend being the most creative playmaker in the game with being a cerebral assassin that will take the easy throws.

And now, we’re already a year later. Some things have stayed the same, like the facts that the Chiefs were once again the Super Bowl champs and Mahomes was once again incredible at creating yards out of thin air.

Some things have been a little different (the offense was not nearly as efficient or consistent as it had been every other season under Mahomes). But the process? That remains the same; Looking at each snap to try and separate what the quarterback did from the stat line. I reviewed 18 games in the 2023 season (including every playoff game), and I’ve summarized that data now so we can see if there are any takeaways from last season.

Before we get going, a little reminder of the history and process of charting quarterback play on this site.

Since 2013 I’ve spent an inordinate (some might say unhealthy) amount of time trying to properly contextualize quarterback play. This started with Alex Smith and has continued during the Patrick Mahomes era. The goal-turned-seriously-this-is-not-healthy obsession has been to break down in a tangible way how the quarterback played SEPARATELY from what the other guys on the team did. You know, go beyond the box score (one of the main points of this Substack), because those numbers often fail to tell the real story.

I set out years ago to try and find a way to quantify what really matters from a quarterback’s play: Accuracy, pocket presence, vision/awareness, reading defenses pre-and-post snap, playmaking, and ball protection. If a quarterback does these things well, he’ll consistently play well. And the stats sheet isn’t necessarily going to let you know whether he did those things well on a game by game (or, at times, even season by season) basis. Only the film can tell the whole story.

And so that’s what we look at every week (or as often as we can) here. If you are unfamiliar with how I chart and write about quarterback play, the (unlocked) Week 1 review explains the methodology and reasoning, as well as the definitions used. Here’s a list of the weeks I was able to get to it in 2023.

-Week 1 (UNLOCKED, lays out the terms and methodology)

-Week 2

-Week 3 (no article, but the numbers are there in a week he was virtually flawless)

-Week 4

-Week 5

-Week 6

-Week 7

-Week 8

-Week 9

-Week 11

-Week 12

-Week 13

-Week 15

-Week 16

-Wild Card Round

-Divisional Round

-AFC Championship

Super Bowl LVIII

You can check out each individual game by clicking on them, but I’ll have the “numbers” I charted week by week listed out below. You can also utilize the 2021 and 2022 film review summary articles (linked above) for frame of reference, and I’ll be looking at those numbers to compare what Mahomes did over the course of 2023 to those seasons. I’ve also got his 2018 numbers as a constant comparison for his most impressive “base numbers” statistical season (a low-key terrific example of how the box score doesn’t tell the whole story is that Mahomes was a significantly better QB in 2022 than he was in 2018, yet the box score doesn’t show it because of changed circumstances).

The goal here, again, is to separate Mahomes’ play from the factors around him and talk about him individually as well as things that may have affected his play. Let’s dive in and see if there’s anything to learn from 2023.

Mahomes’ 2023 numbers

Here are the charted number AVERAGES for Mahomes from 2023 (if you never have, you really should read about the methodology and what each term means in the Week 1 film review linked above).

(NOTE- Because not all throws can be charted for accuracy, the numbers will look a bit wonky. I also do not chart ACTUAL interceptions/sacks/etc, as the box score picks that up)

There are a few things to take from those numbers I think, but it’s probably easiest to talk about it once you’ve seen the numbers from 2018, 2021, and 2022:

Mahomes 2018

Mahomes 2021

Mahomes 2022

All right, now you’ve gotten a chance to look at numbers from different seasons. Take your time to really dive back and forth and you can see some of the progression in Mahomes’ game over the years (and you can see his "raised “happy feet” numbers and missed shots in 2021, where he famously went through his worst stretch of football for a brief time, including the AFC Championship that year). With the comparative issues in mind, let’s take a look at a few things.

The first thing I’d note is that the drops problem in 2023, while real, weren’t quite as bad compared to previous seasons as I would’ve expected. Part of the reason they were so much more the focal point in 2023 was the TIMING and NATURE of those drops (they were consistently in big moments). Additionally, it’s worth noting that while a mere 5 yards per game might not seem like much, every little bit matters when the offense as a whole is struggling a bit.

Another thing I noticed was (I believe) the result of Mahomes losing trust in his non-Kelce (and eventually non-Rice) receivers over the course of the season. See those “missed shot” numbers? 1.8 missed shots per game is the highest I’ve ever charted for him, and more than double his 2022 numbers. Mahomes is a terrific QB in this regard (not missing open receivers within the framework of the play), and seeing that number jump sharply again after dropping in 2022 (notice how it was higher in 2021, another year where the offense had some growing pains) is good evidence that he wasn’t trusting what he was seeing as much.

Let’s give your eyes a break from text with an incredible throw vs the Raiders.

Another thing to note from the numbers is that Mahomes, despite playing in an offense that was a marked downgrade in his supporting cast from prior years, still managed to improve his numbers in several key spots. The first is that his potential INT number dropped again, as he continued to learn where he can stretch his limitations and placed the ball at risk even fewer times in previous seasons. One reason I think this is noteworthy is that with the offense sputtering it must have been incredibly tempting for him to press and try and force plays. But he didn’t do so, and that helped the offense avoid negative plays from his end.

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Another interesting number is that Mahomes’ accuracy percentage jumped yet again to an insane 87%. That’s a freakish level of accuracy, particularly when you factor in all the problems the offense was experiencing in the WR room around him. He was throwing dots all over the field.

Mahomes has improved his accuracy every year in the league, and it’s a big part of why he’s developed as a QB. However, it also has to be worth noting that part of the reason his accuracy would jump is the fact that the Chiefs almost never took shots down the field after a certain point in the season. Downfield throws are, by their very nature, less likely to be accurate (if you throw down the field accurately 75% of the time you’re doing incredible). So shifting the offense to basically entirely dink and dunk stuff would give the QB an accuracy boost (and I think it does here).

I think you can also see that change in offensive framework reflected in the number of “franchise throws” continuing to drift down. Mahomes has, over the course of his career, become more and more of a game manager who then breaks out “fire-breathing dragon” 6-10 times per game, as opposed to playing hero ball 20 snaps or more per game (unless it’s required).

For those who want to dive even deeper into the numbers here’s the game-by-game breakdown.

We could spend hours and hours going through each game and remembering how they went (both DEN games, for example, were particularly rough for Mahomes last year in terms of missed shots and happy feet plays). But I’ll let you draw whatever inferences you want beyond the ones I’ve made (I look forward to reading the comments and seeing what takeaways you found that I missed!), except for one more thing. And it’s a big one.

Look at the playoffs as opposed to the regular season. The first thing is that his accuracy percentage jumped just a tiny bit, from 87% to 87.4%. The reason that’s notable is in the playoffs you start facing better and better defenses, usually in worse weather than the regular season. Even maintaining accuracy percentage that time of year, when everything is harder, is impressive. Mahomes raised it just a bit. He also (very) slightly raised his “franchise throws per game” numbers during that stretch, so it’s not like he wasn’t still slinging the ball.

But way more so than that, look at his potential INT, missed shot, and happy feet numbers. To be perfectly blunt, these numbers (especially the latter two, along with accuracy) are what separate average QB play from good QB play from great QB play from incredible QB play. And look what Mahomes did in the playoffs in each of those areas compared to the regular season.

• Potential INTs per game - 0 (0.4 during the regular season)

• Missed shots per game - 0.25 (1.8 during the regular season)

• Happy feet snaps per game - 0.75 (1.2 during the regular season

I cannot stress this enough… when it mattered most, during the toughest time of the year, Mahomes raised his level of play to something close to perfect. It wasn’t ACTUALLY perfect, as he still had bad snaps (I’ve yet to ever chart an actually perfect game from any QB ever). But Mahomes, knowing his offense could not afford virtually any mistakes on his part, managed to continue to make plays while almost never taking anything off the table with a missed shot, happy feet, or a poor throw. It’s incredible.

Mahomes’ charted numbers weren’t as good overall as they were in 2022 (with the exception of his accuracy percentage), but if I had to make one argument as to why Mahomes is the GOAT in the making, I’d point to that postseason run (the latest postseason run in which he played exceptional football game in and game out. The man has had one bad postseason performance out of more than a season’s worth of games) and the way he once again adapted to what his team needed.

2023 was a tough year for Mahomes. But for as much as his box score numbers took a dip, his charted numbers remained very good. And in particular, when the lights shone brightest, he ratcheted up his play to something close to perfect. And that’s worth remembering, maybe even in conversations with people who talk about his “down” year, as you have the chance to say that beautiful phrase…

“Well, when you go behind the box score…”

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