Patrick Mahomes 2022 film review summary; The best he's ever been

Looking at how Mahomes' film review numbers stack up against previous seasons and how he improved yet again. Where (if anywhere) can he get even better?

This article is unlocked for everyone to read and share, as it provides the context of how Mahomes was somehow better than ever in 2022. If you like this sort of analysis beyond the box score, you can subscribe for $12 a year by clicking the below link. We’ll be doing this stuff all year for Mahomes again in 2023.

Last year, when I summarized Patrick Mahomes’ 2021 season of film reviews in early July (I was a lot more on top of things back then, clearly, as we’re in August this year), I wrote this; “2021 was the strangest of Patrick Mahomes’ career.”

What I meant was that 2021 was the first time Mahomes had any sort of “dip” in his play by my numbers, even if only for a brief period. As defenses continued to sell out to take away the big play, Mahomes (and Andy Reid) had to adapt, and the result was a year in which he was again the best quarterback in football but there were at least some flaws to point at.

Now, we’re a year later and about to do the same thing; Summarize a year’s worth of Patrick Mahomes film review. And rather than saying anything about how strange 2022 was, I’ll say this instead:

2022 was the very best Patrick Mahomes has ever been.

Before we get into all that, here’s some background for those of you reading who don’t know the context of this project.

Since 2013 I’ve spent an inordinate (some might say unhealthy) amount of time trying to properly contextualize the quarterback play of the Kansas City Chiefs. This started with Alex Smith and has continued during the Patrick Mahomes era. The goal-turned-seriously-this-is-not-healthy obsession has been to break down in a tangible way how the quarterback played SEPARATELY from what the other guys on the team did. You know, go beyond the box score (one of the main points of this Substack), because those numbers often fail to tell the real story.

I set out years ago to try and find a way to quantify what really matters from a quarterback’s play: Accuracy, pocket presence, vision/awareness, reading defenses pre-and-post snap, playmaking, and ball protection. If a quarterback does these things well, he’ll consistently play well.

And so that’s what we look at every week (or as often as we can) here. If you are unfamiliar with how I chart and write about quarterback play, the (unlocked) Week 1 review explains the methodology and reasoning, as well as the definitions used. Here’s a list of the weeks I was able to get to it in 2022.

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 6

Week 10

Week 11

Week 17

Divisional Round

AFC Championship

Super Bowl

An 11-game sample size isn’t quite as large as I’d like to get, but it’ll do. For frame of reference, here’s the 2021 film review summary. We’ll utilize those numbers for context shortly, along with his 2018 numbers (which I often utilize to demonstrate progress over the course of his career).

The goal of all this work isn’t just to celebrate how incredible Mahomes is. Well, OK, that’s a part of it. But another goal is to see any changes we can find in the numbers over the years… OR if we see numbers stay consistent despite change around him (like, I don’t know, losing one of the very best wide receivers in the league to a trade or something).

Let’s look at Mahomes’ 2022 numbers, compare them to 2018 and 2021, and talk about why I can say so confidently that 2022 was the best Mahomes has ever been.

Mahomes’ 2022 numbers

(please don’t mind that unnecessary zero that Excel slipped in there on me in the accuracy column that I missed until it was too late)

And here are 2018’s and 2021’s numbers, in that order, for purposes of context.

Mahomes 2018

Mahomes 2021

What the numbers tell us

There are a couple of things that these numbers say that absolutely blow my mind, and are worth noting.

First, Mahomes’ accuracy (already quite high) jumped up yet again. It’s one of the ways he’s consistently improved as a pro (though he was already quite accurate from the start), and is demonstrative of his freakish consistency game in and game out. This is one of the more underrated aspects of his play. People gasp about his creativity but it’s that consistent accuracy that makes him great and not just flashy.

Accuracy, as much as arm talent/strength, allows Mahomes to make throws that most other quarterbacks aren’t willing to try. And in 2022, he took another step forward in “placement” throws leading receivers away from defenders or on their back hip/shoulder.

By making throws like this, Mahomes can be, for lack of a better term, safely risky. He maintains his reputation as a gunslinger by making throws into tight windows and off-platform where necessary, but he’s managed to become more and more accurate over the years when making said throws. He has also become better at knowing when to hold ‘em and when to fold ‘em, and as a result we don’t see as many errant passes.

Speaking of knowing when to cut loose and when to play it safe, you can see that same thing in Mahomes’ stats on potential interceptions. His 0.5 potential interceptions per game is the lowest of his career. What makes that even more interesting is that he had one game in which he threw FOUR potential interceptions (Week 2 against the Chargers). Here’s a week by week breakdown of his numbers.

(I’m a big believer in showing one’s work for purposes of accountability, so hopefully this helps provide a little more information for those who are interested)

Look at what happened with potential interceptions immediately following the Chargers game. Whether it was intentional or not, Mahomes tightened up his “risky” throws and accuracy to such a degree that I only charted a single potential pick that was on him in the remaining nine games. To be able to bounce back from such a rough performance and then best his previous efforts in that area is highly impressive, and it’s demonstrative of his improved accuracy and decision making even as he continues to be creative (nearly 700 created yards in 11 games) and make big-time “franchise” throws. It’s even more impressive when one considers he did it with Tyreek Hill no longer in the building (and thus fewer “wide open to Hill” moments).

Speaking of decision making, you can notice another subtle step forward in Mahomes’ “missed shots” and “happy feet” stats, as both dropped from 2021 and bested his 2018 efforts. Mahomes has reached a point that it’s rare for him to miss a genuinely open receiver, and he’s often making the throw before the window is apparent. His decision making and progressions post-snap have simultaneously improved AND sped up, and you see that in his lowered missed shots and happy feet. Watch him go 1-2-3 here in under 2 seconds.

Mahomes knew he had a free rusher here, which generally means getting the ball out hot immediately. But he’s able to go through his progressions so quickly that he gets to his third man and releases before the blitzer can get home (shout out to Trey Smith for slowing the rusher down just a hair).

Hey, look, it’s that “subscribe for $12 a year link again. How’d that get here? If you haven’t hit that button yet, you should.

The number of “franchise throws” Mahomes makes remained lower than what he did in 2018. But when you combine that with what you see in a decease in inaccurate throws, happy feet, and missed shots, it’s pretty easy to connect the dots and note why this isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Mahomes continues to make spectacular plays/throws when it’s needed, but he’s improved significantly (even from 2021 to 2022) at choosing when it is NECESSARY to make those plays. If it’s not, and there’s an easier (or more guaranteed) option available, he’ll take it.

In short, the version of Mahomes we saw in 2022 remained a terrific playmaker who creates yards at a rate much higher than other quarterbacks (I compared him to multiple other players back in 2019 for The Athletic) as well as a player who makes franchise throws at a high clip… and ALSO an efficient, smart player who almost never makes mistakes.

Mahomes has become something of a situational chameleon at this point, and that’s a new development from 2022. Are you playing a conservative 2-high zone shell? He’ll dink and dunk you to death in the underneath windows or with sideline hole shots. Flooding shallow and intermediate? He’ll go over the top. Rushing 3? He’ll sit there patiently and wait. Get pressure? He’ll get loose and create better than anyone on the planet. Blitz? He’ll consistently find the open zone left vacated before you get home. Man coverage? He’ll throw back shoulder or just wait a beat and scramble for an easy 8-10 yards (or more).

Mahomes took the league by storm by being special enough to play his style of football regardless of what the defense did. He can still do so, but he’s also (in his 5th season as a starter) now become an elite pre-and-post-snap processor that is willing to change his approach depending on what the defense decides to throw at him.

And if you’re saying some version of “but Seth, that basically sounds like the perfect quarterback without any real weaknesses…” you’re absolutely right. That’s where Mahomes is at now. There’s nothing he is even average at, let alone below average. His traits range from good to elite to “one of a kind,” but there’s nothing that’s a legitimate area of struggle for him. It’s like watching a character in a video game level up to some sort of final form.

What’s left for Mahomes to improve on? The reality is not much. There are only a few traits left for him that fall short of elite. The first is his pocket movement, which can still get away from him a bit at times. He’s high level there at this point and his movements within the pocket have “shrunk” over the years, with 2022 being the best he’s been at it. But it’s still an area he could get even better.

The other area to examine, and one that was more noticeable last season, is his in-pocket deep ball accuracy. While he’s generally a good deep ball passer, he’s not in the “very good” or elite category there right now when it comes to moon shots down the field. And at times, it cost the Chiefs bigger plays.

I’ll use an example of a play that was a good play that could have been even better involving a receiver who was on the other side of some of those slightly errant throws.

Here, Mahomes hits MVS for a big gain. It’s a decent throw considering the distance down the field (deep throws are, by their very nature, harder to hit perfectly). But it’s not a great throw in that MVS has to slow down and wait for it. Look at the separation MVS had here as the throw is leaving Mahomes’ hand.

That separation only increased as the ball traveled (once MVS leaves someone behind down the field those long strides are almost impossible to catch). There’s no safety over the top to help. Had Mahomes put a little more air under this or pushed it a little farther down the field, it’s a touchdown.

Mahomes had a few deep balls like this to MVS last season that cost some yardage, and a few more that were beyond his reach that robbed the Chiefs of big gains (likely why some of them laid up short as he tried to ensure he didn’t ovethrow it). Every quarterback is going to miss some of those, but it’s probably the area where Mahomes could improve the most in terms of consistency (going from good to great there could mean another 250 yards and 4-5 touchdowns for MVS this year, and that is not hyperbole).

But these are nitpicks, and we all know it. The short story is that Mahomes played quarterback at a higher level than he ever has in 2022, and also at a higher level than anyone else I’ve ever seen/charted. He’s managed to blend being the most creative playmaker in the game with being a cerebral assassin that will take the easy throws.

In other words, it’s a really, really great time to be a Chiefs fan as you watch something historic unfold in front of your eyes. Don’t blink.