Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl film review: No mistakes
Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl film review: No mistakes
Mahomes was as close to flawless as it gets in guiding the Chiefs to their 2nd Super Bowl in 4 years, making plays when necessary while avoiding costly mistakes.
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Patrick Mahomes should not have had anything left to prove prior to Super Bowl LVII.
After all, he had just come off a Divisional Round in which he played on one leg for most of the game and still managed to do enough to push the Chiefs past a tough Jacksonville squad. He followed that up with a gutsy performance on a bad ankle against Lou Anarumo and the Bengals in the AFC Championship, silencing the idea that without his mobility he’d be dragged down to earth. Shouldn’t that be enough?
If it weren’t, then the Super Bowl served as an opportunity to put the final nail in the “only the completely blind or willfully ignorant doubt Mahomes’ greatness” coffin. The vaunted Philadelphia Eagles defense, known for being the best pass rushing group in years, was coming to town (figuratively). Stacked with talent on the defensive line and in the secondary, this was a group that seemed tailor-made to force Mahomes into mistakes. And on the other side of the ball was a highly impressive offense that could capitalize on any mistakes.
The only way to beat a team like that was to minimalize errors while still moving the ball. And Mahomes, as ever, understood the assignment.
In a game where the Eagles dominated time of possession (partly in a good way, but also partly due to a crucial fumble by Jalen Hurts, who was stellar but had a few costly errors) the Chiefs were able to put up 31 points of offense despite a missed field goal taking away 3 points on a good drive.
I already wrote about Andy Reid’s exceptional play calling and game plan against the Eagles, as well as how well the offensive line performed against a supposed mismatch. But even with those things going well, Mahomes needed to have a steller performance himself to prevent a loss against a red-hot Eagles offense that was only stopped a few times all day.
So how did Mahomes perform? We could look at the stats, but given the low number of possessions that’s a bit tricky. The most reliable way, as ever, is to check the film, charting for things that actually measure quarterback play. And so, one more time for the 2022/2023 season (until the “full year” review), that’s what I did.
If you are unfamiliar with how I chart and write about quarterback play, the (unlocked) Week 1 review explains the methodology and reasoning, as well as the definitions used. The goal, as ever, is to separate the QB’s play from what is around the QB to get a better gauge on how he did on his own. You can find the previous pieces by clicking the links below:
Let’s talk about different forms of greatness, and how Mahomes showed off his ability to win in any way necessary against a tough Eagles defense.
First, let’s look at the numbers and talk about what they showed when you break it down on a snap by snap basis.
(NOTE- Not all passes can be charted for accuracy, so the numbers may look a tad wonky at times)
The first thing that might jump out to someone is that Mahomes didn’t have many “franchise throws” against the Eagles. And that’s true. While he made some excellent plays, Mahomes didn’t have a ton of throws that I’d label that way. Part of that was due to scheme, but part of it was due to Mahomes refusing to make life more difficult than it has to be and making quick decisions/throws to players who had a window. He also had himself a day diagnosing the Eagles’ defense and understanding where he could get the ball without risking pressure.
This was Mahomes’ first throw of the day, a nice chunk of yards to Travis Kelce (of course), who dominated the initial drive for the Chiefs (of COURSE). It serves as a good example of how Mahomes spent his day, surveying the coverage, identifying where the hole is going to be, and making a throw to a spot before Kelce comes open. It’s also worth noting that he puts that ball on a line to get there before the safety can crash down even if he hadn’t slipped.
All of those things make this snap a great example of how Mahomes dissected the Eagles when throwing the ball, but there’s an added wrinkle here that I thought was especially interesting. Prior to the snap (so not shown here), Mahomes had Kelce motion across the formation from left to right. The Chiefs often do this to try and identify the coverage. The Eagles had a defender follow Kelce across the formation, showing man coverage. However, after the snap, the Eagles dropped back into zone. It was a great disguise using what the Chiefs often do (motion) against them to create confusion.
But it didn’t work, because Mahomes is just as good at reading defenses post-snap as he is pre-snap. And this is where his “does everything well” ability comes into play. Most quarterbacks live in a certain methodology based on their strengths. Do they rely on pre-snap reads or their ability to digest information quickly post-snap? Their arm or their athleticism? Creation or knowledge of the schematic options? Mahomes doesn’t have to choose, because he can do literally all of it at a high level.
Mahomes understood that while his OL was playing well, to win against the Eagles he needed to read the field quickly pre-and-post snap and get the ball out fast with accuracy. And he spent the whole day doing that, utilizing his physical skillset to keep up with the necessities of each play.
After the first drive, the Eagles dedicated a great deal of their attention to Kelce, trying to force other receivers to beat them. It’s a good strategy, and an expected one, but it led to plays like this. Mahomes drops back surveying the field and goes right to left when he sees that the linebacker in the middle of the field is trying to jump Kelce’s route. He knows that means Juju Smith-Schuster should come open over the middle without the LB in the throwing lane.
Mahomes ends up with some pressure late in the play as Joe Thuney is slowly giving ground to a bull rush. This takes away his space to step into a throw. But the ball has to come out immediately or the LB will recover to jump into the lane. So Mahomes, as he ever does, makes the throw in a way the play’s setup demands, snapping the ball out sidearm with little support from his legs. And it comes out with HEAT on it to prevent the LB from getting back to the right spot.
Look at this throw as the ball is released.
This is the perfect marriage of mental acumen meeting physical gifts. Many quarterbacks don’t sift through coverage this quickly (it’s not bad coverage by the Eagles’ LB). Of those who do, only a small number of them are able to make the throw under the circumstances without having to reset their feet (and thus letting the window close). That’s what Mahomes’ combination of mental and physical ability allows for; Making plays that few others can consider, let alone execute.
Mahomes’ fast decision-making was a boon for the OL all game. Not to take away from their exceptional performance, but Mahomes helped them out repeatedly by being fast and sure with his decisions. When his initial read wasn’t there he quickly either found a checkdown or moved to try and create a throwing lane.
It’s worth noting that after the Eagles began working like crazy to keep Kelce from taking over the game, Mahomes simply went to his other targets to move the ball through the air. Nine different receivers were targeted with eight making at least one catch. Primarily, Mahomes started looking for Smith-Schuster to take advantage of openings against zone once the Eagles settled for shifting coverage in Kelce’s direction.
One of my favorite plays of the game exemplified Mahomes’ efficient and mistake-free approach to the game, as well as the need to move away from Kelce as a primary target. It’s a play where Kelce himself knew where the ball should go. Watch Juju (bottom of the screen), who is lined up to Kelce, as well as Kelce.
This is a pretty simple route combination that anticipates zone and the cornerback dropping to account for MVS running deep (just because MVS didn’t collect stats doesn’t mean he didn’t play a valuable role). That leaves one secondary defender to choose between Kelce and Juju, and he stays inside on Kelce’s route.
Kelce, seeing this, hilariously points to Juju on the off-chance Mahomes is stuck on him as a read (no one sees the field like Kelce as a receiver). Of course, the help isn’t needed as Mahomes is already releasing the ball after reading the field (well, from the center of the field to see if the safety stays on Moore’s inside route and working his way right). It’s worth noting that this is a throw to the sideline from the opposite hash and requires some serious heat to get there in time for Smith-Schuster to gain valuable yards after the catch.
This was the first 1st down of the Chiefs’ game-winning drive, and it exemplified the way Mahomes played throughout the evening; Leaving no fat on the bone and taking everything the defense gave him.
Playing that way, if one were to believe Mahomes’ detractors, is not something he does well. However, he executed it at the absolute highest level against a very tough defense on the biggest stage. To deny it is to simply deny reality at this point. Very few quarterbacks have an opportunity to show how wrong a narrative is about them the way Mahomes did against the Eagles, and he delivered. He didn’t miss open receivers. He didn’t force the ball. His only “happy feet” snap came when everyone down the field was covered. Nearly every aimed throw was accurate. Like I said, no meat on the bone. The EXACT way Mahomes supposedly “can’t” win.
If you’ve read this far, you clearly enjoy going beyond the box score and reading about the Chiefs, something we do all the time here. Hey, look, it’s that “subscribe for $12 a year” button again!
Of course, Mahomes being Mahomes, it wasn’t just a game of ruthless efficiency. When needed, he created yards out of nothing.
There’s not a stat for “that should be impossible,” but there should be. This play exemplifies why “created yards” is a stat I track and why it’s so valuable.
This should be a sack. The Chiefs should be facing 2nd and 14 (give or take) and be in a spot that the Eagles’ pass rush can pin its ears back and attack the offense. Instead the Chiefs gain good yardage and get a first down that puts them close to field goal range. It’s a complete drive-shifting play that allows Kansas City to keep their whole playbook open. The yards gained here don’t reflect the level of impact it has when a quarterback takes a negative and turns it into a positive.
Mahomes was taking everything the defense gave him all day, but when the defense (which didn’t really play BADLY outside of a few tough red zone snaps), didn’t offer anything easy, Mahomes just took the yardage anyways. He did this with his arm several times, but also (bad ankle and all) with his legs. On the Chiefs’ first drive of the 2nd half, in addition to the above created yardage to Kelce, Mahomes also snatched an additional 14 yards with his legs on a play where no one was open. Keep in mind that was when Kansas City trailed by 10 and desperately needed a score.
And, of course, on the final drive of the day, with the game tied…
On a do-or-die down, the Eagles went with their bread and butter; Rushing five excellent pass rusher to force the ball out. They opted for man coverage behind that rush after watching Mahomes/Kelce/Juju shred their zone looks on virtually every snap they tried it. It makes sense as a gamble given Mahomes’ ankle, and they really didn’t have much of a choice (Kelce and Juju had both already made catches against zone looks that drive, and the Chiefs were running well on them).
And to start off with, the look works. They had every Chiefs’ receiver well-covered on the play, and the pocket was getting collapsed. But Mahomes recognized that by rushing and playing man, the Eagles lacked a true spy. And he took off, gaining yardage that came close to icing the game for the Chiefs.
People can talk about penalties/etc all they want, but this play was what essentially swung the game for the Chiefs.
Mahomes was facing the toughest defense he’d seen all season, was playing on an ankle that was less than 100%, and was asked to basically play a flawless game in order to keep up with an opposing offense that kept scoring and kept the ball out of his hands. He was asked to play the role of game manager extraordinaire while still creating when it was necessary. And he did all of it with the whole world watching.
There’s no debate anymore. There’s no doubt. There’s barely even delusion at this point. Patrick Mahomes is unlike anything I’ve ever seen, a shapeshifter who can win any type of game playing any type of style against any type of defense. And that’s a big part of why the Chiefs are once again Super Bowl champions.
Sometimes if you’re blessed you get to see a Maestro at work in all his glory. PM15 used the whole orchestra to deliver a masterpiece to the biggest audience. That we’re his everyday minions makes it that much sweeter. Great article w/ great analysis on a great performance. Simply “Greatness”!
Really enjoy your analysis Seth, keep up the good work!