Patrick Mahomes vs the Broncos; Footwork, streaky accuracy and a weird game
Examining what went wrong (and right) in the Week 17 film review of the Chiefs' QB.
Each week here (or as many as I’m able), I review every snap by Patrick Mahomes, charting things that gauge quarterback performance and measure traits like accuracy, pocket presence, vision/awareness, playmaking, and ball protection. The idea is to quantify how the quarterback played beyond the box score and contextualize his play from supporting cast and scheme. You can find the terms and methodology here. This week, let’s talk about a weird game and what went wrong (and right) on some deep throws.
Patrick Mahomes has reached the point to where he’s looked at (and critiqued) differently than any other quarterback in the league. After a year of destroying the NFL statistically despite losing one of the best wide receivers in the league, the debate as to who the best quarterback in the world is has largely vanished. It’s Mahomes. Always was.
In case you’ve forgotten, Mahomes tends to be at the top right of virtually every chart that gauges quarterback play (a hilarious phenomenon I wrote about last year that has remained true this season). Tyreek Hill or no Tyreek Hill, he’s statistically so far above every other quarterback that the MVP race feels like a foregone conclusion.
One thing that means is that when Mahomes has a poor snap, we notice. And when he has several in a row (or more than just a couple in a game), we REALLY notice. And that brings us to Week 17 against the Broncos. Despite the Chiefs putting up points and Mahomes ending the game with over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns (base stats never tell the whole story, mind you), one of the primary questions I was asked after the game was “what’s wrong with Mahomes?”
This is a fair question, though it’s worth keeping in mind that it’s being asked after a game where he made throws like this down the field:
Sinking the ball into that hole in the zone with velocity, timing, and accuracy, is one of the throws/plays that separates quarterbacks at the NFL level. It’s a pretty play.
But again, the question about what was ailing Mahomes on other snaps is fair, and was especially prevalent regarding the deep ball, where (notwithstanding the above throw) several shots were taken but missed down the field that could have been big plays, or even touchdowns. Well, let’s talk about it by looking at every snap (we’re finally back to it after missing some games, and I’ll get to those eventually so we can look at the entirety of 2022 when it’s all said and done).
If you are unfamiliar with how I chart and write about quarterback play, the (unlocked) Week 1 review explains the methodology and reasoning, as well as the definitions used. The goal, as ever, is to separate the QB’s play from what is around the QB to get a better gauge on how he did on his own. You can find the previous pieces by clicking the links below:
Let’s look at the numbers and talk about accuracy on a weird day against the Broncos, then talk about what went wrong (and right) for Mahomes on Sunday.