Patrick Mahomes Week 1 film review: looking at every snap of a... controversial (?) performance.

Going through the tape to see what Mahomes did on a snap by snap basis as the Chiefs decimated the Cardinals defense.

This article is unlocked for everyone, as Patrick Mahomes’ play was something of a hot topic yesterday. It will also provide a another preview of how we’ll be breaking down Mahomes’ snaps this year. If you like this sort of analysis beyond the box score, you can subscribe for $12 a year by clicking this link.

Football is back. The Chiefs are back. Patrick Mahomes is back.

And that means we have a chance to get back to doing one of the most fun things in sports; Breaking down tape of Mahomes on a snap by snap basis.

One of my favorite things to do in this job is to try and contextualize/evaluate quarterback play in a way that goes beyond the box score. To that end, I’ve charted pretty much every snap by a Chiefs quarterback since the 2013 season. Over the years I’ve tweaked the system a bit and added a few nuances here and there, but the goal is always the same; Separating what the quarterback does from everything else around him in a way that allows us to get a real idea how the player did on his own two feet.

Quarterback play is difficult to accurately quantify. Even the best statistical tools we have are all trapped by the flaw that they measure the result rather than what the quarterback specifically did on a given play. A 2-yard screen pass can result in 75 yards and a touchdown, while a gorgeous 15-yard out from the opposite hash can result in an incomplete pass if the receiver doesn’t do his job. Statistics, even the best ones, tell us the “what,” not the “how.”

Here’s an easy example from Week 1; On one of the Chiefs’ goal line touchdowns Mahomes simply pitched the ball underhanded to RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire in a play that any quarterback could make. For another, he did… well, I’ll just show you.

From a box score standpoint, these plays are the same. From an analysis standpoint, one is a play any QB should make easily. The other involves staying calm with pressure coming, holding the ball long enough for Fortson to start to clear the middle of the field and then making an off-balance lofted throw (with a defender right in his grill) without stepping into WHILE laying the ball out ahead to a spot only Fortson can get to it. Even saying that sentence is stressful, let alone completing that throw.

You see the problem? The stats tell us these are the same, because they define the “what” (a short TD) and not the “how.” And the “how,” as well as eliminating other factors involved in the play, is necessary to evaluate the quarterback.

So for those who haven’t been reading here or at The Athletic (or SB Nation before that), I set out years ago to try and find a way to quantify what really matters from a quarterback’s play: Accuracy, pocket presence, vision/awareness, playmaking, and ball protection. If a quarterback does these things well, he’ll consistently play well.

With that in mind, when reviewing a QB’s snaps on all-22 I chart each throw for things that track those aspects of QB play: Plays/yards created, franchise throws, multiple read plays, accuracy in and out of the pocket, flushes (being pressured off his spot), drops and yards lost, potential INTs, missed receivers, and “happy feet” snaps. For a more detailed description of these you can check out the Preseason Week 2 review. But we need to get started, because we’re doing a little extra this week.

One of the talking points that made the rounds following the Chiefs’ win was that Mahomes’ PFF grade didn’t match up with what most expected.

Jarad Evans @PFF_Jarad

PFF's highest-graded QBs in Week 1 so far 1. Josh Allen - 91.5 2. Kirk Cousins - 85.1 3. Ryan Tannehill - 81.1 4. Justin Herbert - 79.8 5. Jameis Winston - 79.6 6. Lamar Jackson - 76.8 6. Jalen Hurts - 76.8 8. Patrick Mahomes - 71.5 9. Tom Brady - 70.0 10. Davis Mills - 68.1

This led to a spirited debate about what it means to quantify QB play, how to grade what Mahomes does specifically, and whether or not Mahomes, on a snap-by-snap basis, was really that impressive against the Cardinals. Because what PFF does in its charting (essentially grading every snap from a -2.0 to 2.0 scale in half-point increments, as set forth in good detail here) is a little different than how I do things, an apple to apple comparison might seem a little tough. However, it’s doable to at least talk generalities.

That said, I want to talk more than generalities. So in addition to the usual charted numbers, I also went back and “graded” every snap by Mahomes utilizing the same system. I’ll be adding that in today as well (and provide a link to a Google doc so you can see each snap’s grade and a blurb on it) to at least examine where one might land and why, since it’s a topic people are interested in. But first, here are Mahomes’ numbers from the usual charting, and let’s talk about what he put on film vs Arizona.

(NOTE- not all passes can be charted for accuracy, so numbers can look wonky. ALSO, keep in mind that all of this is done in search of information. None of this is intended as a dunk or a flaming of other analytical methods. Let’s all learn stuff together!)

For a frame of reference, here is the “2021 Mahomes season summary” article, which also contains the summary of 2018. I’ve also looked at multiple other quarterbacks utilizing this same methodology and wrote about a few of them for The Athletic.

The first thing that jumped out to me upon charting the numbers for this game was the ratio of “holy crap” plays (basically a guarantee in any Mahomes game) and the lack of glaring errors. Mahomes didn’t miss a single open receiver within the framework of the offense and had only one happy feet snap (and that one he was actually able to convert into a completed pass to Juju Smith-Schuster while on the run).

Further, while he had one potential INT dropped, he was otherwise safe with the ball by my charting. The only other throw that can close to a potential INT was to Marquez Valdes-Scantling in the back of the end zone, but it was made with the defender’s back turned and wasn’t a real risk of a pick.

Mahomes had a half-dozen inaccurate throws, including a pair of deep passes to Hardman that just barely missed on long touchdowns. However, his ratio of accuracy to inaccuracy was quite solid (81.6% accuracy is excellent by my historical charting). He was consistently making good throws to open spots. His only other major mistake on the day was a dropped bad snap, which he picked up and handed off to CEH (which was again fumbled, something that could be put on him or the back).

That’s a summary of the “bad” from Mahomes; A handful of inaccurate throws, a happy feet snap, a potential pick, and a fumbled snap. Let’s talk about the good. We’ll get to the mind-bending stuff at some point, but first it’s worth noting that Mahomes was processing his reads and finding the open receiver extremely quickly, whether pre-snap or post-snap. Watch his head movement here as he goes 1-2-3 reading the coverage vs the route combinations.

This is the sort of quick “scan the field, find the guy” throw that Mahomes made on multiple occasions vs the Cardinals when the initial read wasn’t open. Of course, thanks to Reid’s scheme and Mahomes correctly identifying the coverage pre-snap, there were even more plays where he was able to throw to this first read. That said, doing so requires identifying where the opening will be and still making a precise, accurate throw. Which Mahomes did snap after snap for nearly the entirety of the game.

Going through reads pre-snap and post-snap efficiently wasn’t the only thing Mahomes was doing throughout the game that showed his growth. He also did excellent work throwing with timing and anticipation multiple times, regardless of whether he was under pressure on the play.

Keep an eye on the process here for Mahomes. He starts with Kelce as his first read given his 1x1 matchup. When the defender utilizes the always-effective method of “grab and hold on for dear life” to try and neutralize Kelce, Mahomes shifts his focus right. He knows MVS is going to be turning on a comeback route, and he knows where it’s supposed to occur.

Mahomes waits for a beat knowing that the route vs the leverage should result in an opening. In the meantime, backup guard Nick Allegretti gets beaten inside quickly and starts to give up interior pressure. Mahomes has to get rid of the ball but waits until the last possible second so the route can develop. Even then, watch where MVS is as Mahomes starts his throw; His back is turned and he’s just starting to plant. Mahomes has to make a “spot” throw here with accuracy and velocity in order to catch the receiver, and he does it as he’s starting to get hit and without being able to step into the throw.

Those types of spot throws, particularly with accuracy and velocity while under pressure, are throws that most quarterbacks simply can’t make with any sort of consistency. Mahomes did it multiple times against the Cardinals, showing anticipation and getting the ball to the right spot.

Hey, look, it’s that “subscribe for $12 a year link again. How’d that get here? We’ll be doing this every week with Mahomes, plus looking at multiple other aspects of film review and general analysis. Hit that link!

Speaking of getting the ball to the right spot, Mahomes’ placement Sunday was consistently on point, ranging from “good” to “spectacular.”

On what was arguably his best throw of the day (the fact that it’s arguable provides some context in its own right for some of the throws Mahomes made Sunday), Mahomes works out of play action (they used more of those looks Sunday from under center, a nice wrinkle that helps vary up pass protection sets) and is looking for Kelce the whole time. The poor linebacker actually does everything in his power to get a ton of depth to stop the route, but the placement here is just otherworldly.

Mahomes was doing more than just making good throws on the day, though. He consistently climbed the pocket effectively on snaps that required it while scanning the field, making the correct reads even when having to deal with pressure. He also consistently read Arizona’s blitzes accurately and found the spot vacated or the space left vulnerable (we’re spamming the word “consistently,” but it is what it is). The ball was often out quickly as he put it right in a vulnerable spot for a gain. When his reads weren’t there and a checkdown/dumpoff had space, he utilized it and didn’t try to play hero ball.

This is all very efficient, very safe stuff that is hard to do consistently throughout the entirety of a game. It’s easy to say “operate within the offense” but it’s harder to do it for an entire game and not get bored or start taking chances or just make a mistake. It’s an area Mahomes has had to improve throughout his career, but he never “pressed” throughout the game and tried to grab yardage that wasn’t there (outside of his lone potential pick). Again, all very efficient stuff that goes towards cerebral, smart quarterbacking.

Of course, while doing that he was also doing a bunch of “yep, that’s Mahomes” stuff, like puppeteering defenders to create throwing lanes.

This is one of my favorite things Mahomes does. While he’ll scramble when necessary, he generally likes to utilize movement to try and get defenders to move clear of throwing lanes. Here, he faces quick pressure (Allegretti recovers enough to send the defender sprawling, but the pocket is compromised), and he escapes through the B gap.

With Arizona playing zone, the defender underneath on Noah Gray has his eyes on Mahomes and just can’t help himself. He stays home momentarily, but Mahomes threatens to scramble with some space and so he has to respect the threat of a run-in TD. As the defender closes, Mahomes flattens out his scramble and simply dumps the ball off to Gray (if one can call an across-the-body-against-momentum throw a dumpoff, no matter how short). To go back to the point we started out with, this play looks easy in the box score but requires multiples steps that most quarterbacks don’t string together with any sort of consistency.

And then, of course, there were the flat-out voodoo plays.

I don’t have much analysis for you other than “that isn’t fair,” but I’ll give it a shot. Mahomes starts his reads left and doesn’t have an opening. The Cardinals execute a solid stunt that results in a much quicker defender looping around Orlando Brown, so Mahomes has to step forward to avoid getting sacked. The problem is that Brown, in a valient effort to keep up with the speedier defender, laid himself out and is now in Mahomes’ path. Stepping farther inside to avoid Brown completely would bring him within arm’s reach of other defenders. So now what?

“Now what” is apparently hopping around Brown’s body even as he falls, twisting his hips like Jamaal Charles avoiding contact (OK, that’s an exaggeration). While doing so he keeps looking down the field and sees Skyy Moore crossing the field with separation, BUT that route is going to take him right behind Juju (and Juju’s defender) in a moment. So the ball has to come out immediately. Mahomes fires without setting his feet and adds his “yep, that was a good one” flourish at the end. Again, this isn’t fair.

It would be one thing if Mahomes only made one or two plays like this Sunday. But there were multiple “it’s not fair” moments, starting with his first touchdown (a perfectly placed throw lofted to Kelce with an unblocked defender right in his face). And, as we discussed above, he was doing that while also doing the little things (timing, placement, pre-and-post-snap reads, climbing the pocket) successfully snap in and snap out.

And that’s where we get to the “snap by snap” stuff. Like I said earlier, this normally isn’t part of the analysis as I would simply summarize the generalities of the good vs the normal vs the bad. But since it’s been a topic of discussion, it seemed right to do it with specificity this week.

So here’s a Google doc with every snap “graded” utilizing the same -2.0 to +2.0 scale discussed previously.

MAHOMES WEEK 1 SPREADSHEET SNAPS

There’s a lot of information to sift through there, but I’ll summarize it a little.

The basic takeaways I would have after utilizing this method is that it brought me to the same place I was already at with my own charting (which makes me think it’s pretty reliable, for what that’s worth). If my counting is correct, I arrived at 23 “positive” plays (ones I’d view as at least above average for an NFL QB) with 6 “negative” plays (the opposite). The total positive “score” was +18.0, with a negative score of -4.0.

In other words, Mahomes had almost two-dozen “above average” plays, with 8 of them ranging into higher level plays. In the meantime, he had a pair of plays I graded as quite bad, then 4 plays that were below average. In the meantime, he made multiple other plays throughout the day that were “execute the offense effectively” plays while avoiding mistakes.

I’m not able to do the “charting to grades” calculus, not knowing the methodology used, but I’ll say this; It’s hard for me to believe that a player who made several dozen “good” plays and multiple great ones while having very few mistakes on the day would receive less than a relatively glowing review.

It should be noted that one could come to a very different “score” if they have a different idea as to what is important and what isn’t in quarterbacking, as well as what is an “expected” play vs an above or below average play. And that could easily explain a large discrepancy between what I see vs what someone else sees, as you end up in a very different spot over the course of 65 snaps (imagine a “0.5” difference of opinion on, say, 15 different plays). This isn’t a referendum on anyone else’s final analysis of Mahomes vs Arizona, just a discussion of my own utilizing a similar process along with my usual methodology.

That said, based on my own charting, I would say Sunday’s game wasn’t one of Mahomes’ best 10, but it was a very good game with an excellent combination of executing the offense, making exceptional plays when needed, and generally avoiding mistakes.

But, as Dalton would say, opinions vary.

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