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He destroyed them...a masterful dissection of a Vance Joseph led defense. Maybe you should give PFF some pointers Seth lol

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Sep 13, 2022·edited Sep 13, 2022Author

FWIW, Sam and I are having a pretty great discussion about the nuances and differences here, and he's been quite good about it throughout. Could be that those small differences in snap by snap opinions end up at a very different place!

If we figure out a way to make content out of it you guys will be the first to know haha.

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I would really like to hear more about the differences with play examples. In my opinion, it would greatly increase both the community's knowledge base and PFF's credibility.

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I have found PFF grades useless unless the player is 260 lbs or above. And even then, there is a Jared Lorenzen or JaMarcus Russell that they would probably get wrong.

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That's what we're hoping to accomplish! Stay tuned, we'll see if we can make something work.

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Certainly anyone that watched week one games and doesn't have Mahomes and Allen the top 2 guys lose credibility with me. Josh's picks felt very Mahomes 2021 to me. But if you had Geno Smith above Mahomes in week 1, I just can't take you seriously.

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One thing I would suggest is that in a good measurement system you shouldn't be able to say "it's a small difference, applied consistently" that results in a big difference in the final result. That would literally be considered a systematic error in science. I think that's indicative of a problem with one or both methods rather than being an acceptable resolution.

Would also be curious if Sam can reconcile why PFF grades are so much lower on Mahomes than BOTH other advanced stats and film review.

Finally, are PFF grades correlated with points scored / winning the way that something like EPA is? Which is more strongly correlated?

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I think that's where we find the problem with treating something that has subjectivity backed in (football film review) as something that's tangible/objective (a numerical grade). It's actually one of the reasons I have an issue with those grades being treated as more than "the opinion of the analyst by whom that grade was made."

Still certainly valuable! But not something nearly as hardline as a "Madden grade," which is literally dispositive as to the player's ability.

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Thanks for another great write up Seth! Last year was a growth year for Mahomes, which was the biggest reason for his struggles, imho. He seems to have made a substantial leap, (at least in his first outing). If Mahomes starts dissecting defenses in the way Brady or Manning has done it's going to be one heck of a year for the Chiefs. Can't wait for Thursday!

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Agree, 100% Walt. The reason I think this was one of PM’s best was his calm and coolness from start to finish. It was like a perfectly executed script…. Like they had rehearsed it from start to finish. PFF will never capture that. But Seth will!!!

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He looks better than ever on a small sample size. I think we'll know more Thursday. He's facing a good pass rush with a talented secondary, and a team that I assume won't blitz him a zillion times (what an asinine gameplan by ARI, seriously). So that should provide us with more info!

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Sep 14, 2022Liked by Seth Keysor

Can our tackles hold up? I think that's the match up to watch Thursday.

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No, they can't. The question is how they're going to scheme around that fact. Quick throws, a lot of help, outside, zone-run/stretch-play passing, taking snaps from under center and running the ball hard.

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Hey I will take those subjective misses every week. It puts Mahomes and the team in a great frame of mind to go destroy the next opponent. Especially when it is a conference game. Love seeing big Red keep his foot on the pedal to allow subs in the game.

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It was a fun thing to see Henne, the new Human Victory Cigar!

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Really enjoyed this, Seth. I am not nearly as analytical as you, so this is very good information for me. In addition to watching the clips and reading along with it, it's also just so darn fun to see these plays again. I found myself exclaiming several times Sunday how you are not supposed to be able to do the things he does. I watched that clip of the downfield throw to Kelce over and over, noting something different each time. The ultimate result was that the poor LB could not keep up, the DB was frantically flying in to help, and the deeper DB was resigned to just helping with the tackle. The placement was PERFECT, but of course Mahomes had to throw it in that little window long before Kelce would even be there. True head-shaking stuff. Thanks again for the insights!

Oh, and one slightly off-topic comment. I was astounded at how many times the Cards blitzed Mahomes, knowing how well he does against it. I was open-mouthed at the thought that Vance would do that after Mahomes had burned him so many times while he was Head Coach at Denver. I finally decided with the injuries that Arizona had at DE and CB, he must have just decided it was his only hope -- and it ended predictably for him.

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Arizona's gameplan was genuinely inexplicable. I get injuries, but MAN, they have to know that blitzing is the kiss of death.

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Appreciate your analysis, as always. These are the good ol' days, folks. I'm savoring this Chiefs dominating win flavor. Sunday was glorious. Thankful and hungry for MORE!

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Yep, these days should be enjoyed!

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Awesome article and appreciate the extra time spent towards the spreadsheet analysis

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Glad you enjoyed!

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“That said, based on my own charting, I would say Sunday’s game wasn’t one of Mahomes’ best 10, but it was a very good game with an excellent combination of executing the offense, making exceptional plays when needed, and generally avoiding mistakes.”

5-0 Tds/Ints 360 yards - not a top 10 best performance. Gracious.

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And a 77% completion rate to boot

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Yep. he's had games that weren't nearly a statistically dominant that I'd call better!

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Seth, one of the talking heads said that on a per drive basis it was the 2nd best game Mahomes has had as a Chief. But he didn’t elaborate on the numbers. Another point is that Andy Reid did an excellent job coaching, scheming his players open, against a team that Kingsbury said reflected their practice habits. Apparently Kingsbury's comment was a nod to his QB and a sign of perhaps a little trouble in paradise. Thoughts?

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Sep 13, 2022·edited Sep 13, 2022

Good call on Reid's coaching! I think the talking heads forget about the difference in coaching when they're predicting whose going to be the AFC West champ, (as if 6 straight wasn't enough evidence, lol). Looks like Denver's coaching bit them in the butt last night.

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IDK what Kingsbury might've meant to be sure, but Reid did a great job undressing their coverages for sure.

I didn't know about the points per drive, but it makes sense. They scored on all but 2 drives, and only one of those scores was a FG!

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I saw the number earlier. It was EPA per drive, maybe around 2.5

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I watched the game live and then again via the NFL+ condensed broadcast. I'm glad your analysis confirms that my eyes aren't deceiving me.

I wouldn't care a whit how PFF grades Mahomes were it not that their grades shape perceptions, which in turn influence MVP votes. And I really want to see Mahomes get his due there. It's only one game, but I suspect that if Mahomes continues his brutally efficient play, he'll end up with a very largest disconnect between his efficiency metrics (QBR, DVOA, and EPA) and PFF grading. At which point, it will be PFF that has a credibility problem.

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PFF loves certain kinds of QB play. They LOVE Tom Brady especially and constantly overvalue his play.

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And now Josh Allen

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AFAIC, they already have one - with me!

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This is good insight:

"...were it not that their grades shape perceptions, which in turn influence MVP votes"

I'd add that it also influences Pro Bowls, All Pros, etc, which as meaningless as we claim those things to be are some of the first things referenced in GOAT arguments and HoF arguments.

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Seth's unlocked the power of google sheets, lookout world!

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If he masters pivot tables, it's over!

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I totally know what those are, for sure. I do. I swear.

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hahahahaha

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The idea that Tom Brady almost played as well as Mahomes on Sunday is ridiculous. PFF's metrics consistently fail the eye-test when it comes to QB play, and I don't listen to them at all for QB evaluations.

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Seth, you're being too nice to PFF. You're clearly wearing your pastor/nice guy hat instead of your lawyer hat. We want to see you destroy them with facts, logic, and argumentation! 🤣

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founding

As the song goes…”blinded them with science”!

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Sep 13, 2022·edited Sep 13, 2022

I'm gonna have to side with PFF on this one, Seth. How can we possibly get the best iteration of Petty Pat if you're constantly talking him up? I wanna see Pat count to six against the Chargers. One digit for every play that you viewed as negative. 😆

I'd be interested in your list of 10 games that you consider better that Pat's effort on Sunday. It struck me as one of the more technically sound performances of his career. There have certainly been more important games and games with more Mahomes' voodoo, but as far as the nuts and bolts of QB play, I thought it was right near the top.

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Long time reader, first time commenter...fantastic write up as always! It always makes my day even better seeing there's a new article to read. Thanks for taking the time to put this together!

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And this is why your method should be adopted. I'm not upset with PFF but I am disappointed.

Just landed so cannot wait to watch this game!

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I, for one, am glad that PFF rated him so low. Gives more fuel to the fire-breathing dragon.

Hoping PFF continues to rate him low for the whole year and we'll end up with a Mahomes stat line of like 5200 yards / 49 TDs / 8 picks and a PFF grade of 76 and everyone can laugh at them.

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Why so low? Lol

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founding

That’s what I thought! 🤩🤔

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Which part? lol

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The 5200 yards and 49 TDs, I want Patrick to go all scorched earth and set new season records in both. Manning set the passing yards record with 5477 and TD record with 55 in 2013 while in Denver. Let's silence the critics!

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