Mahomes was as close to flawless as it gets in guiding the Chiefs to their 2nd Super Bowl in 4 years, making plays when necessary while avoiding costly mistakes.
I think establishing the run is often taken to mean "running the football over and over again" (stupid), when what it really means is, "demonstrate that you will at least pretend to run the football and/or throw a screen pass/jet sweep, anytime in any situation, so the pass rush can't tee off on your quarterback."
Now, I'll freely admit, a lot of the "establish the run" folks do mean "run the ball 7 times in a row" (the stupidest and most costly way of establishing the run), when they should mean "run a play-action pass on 2nd and 7, knowing that it will slow the pass rushers down by 0.3 seconds, and allow the WR routes to develop." But that doesn't mean we should stop doing the latter, just because the former is stupid.
Sometimes if you’re blessed you get to see a Maestro at work in all his glory. PM15 used the whole orchestra to deliver a masterpiece to the biggest audience. That we’re his everyday minions makes it that much sweeter. Great article w/ great analysis on a great performance. Simply “Greatness”!
I remember how much he "struggled" at the beginning of last year to adapt. This game was what all that work and experience was for.
No clue what the league tries next. A bunch of different stuff maybe? Maybe back to the Bengals plan of rushing 3 and spying? It doesn't matter how good your defense is, so maybe they'll just go all in on offense and hope they can outscore us?
Philly almost made the all offense idea work. Chiefs D is much improved and underrated. 2 FGs and one 3 and out was all it took. I expect we will see many more 4th down and other gambles next year with teams desperately trying to keep the Chiefs offense off the field.
The Bengals trick wasn't just "drop 8", but "show a different defense pre-snap and *then* drop 8." It only works when the QB isn't accustomed to seeing a different look pre-snap vs post-snap. Because the Bengals did that in the biggest game of the season, and left two of the most competitive, relentless minds in football to obsess over it all off-season, they innoculated Mahomes and Reid against this tactic for the future. Opposing defenses are going to have to come up with something brand new.
It was definitely an outlier. But credit to Mahomes and the Chiefs offensive coaching staff for not simply discarding it from their memories. That's why we're Super Bowl champs this year - Mahomes learned to see the difference between a pre-snap and a post-snap look, but the Eagles defense didn't and got caught for 2 TDs as a consequence.
Appreciate the “inoculated” analogy. Truly, the CoPat15 virus cooked up in the nefarious Cincinnati grid iron lab was defeated by Andy burning many midnight hours in his own R&D facility. 🍾
I think the WR group is very underrated for its toughness, consistency and depth. There were some guys they used relatively sparingly in the short passing game all season, but unlike the game against Tampa Bay, KC was exploiting the holes in the middle of the field.
MVS didn't make as many big plays as Tyreek Hill, but he was good enough to keep defenses honest, and burn them when they underestimated him. He had his repertoire, and he affected the way opponents defended the Chiefs. He was also very durable.
Clearly Mahomes can't just out-throw the corner and safety and expect MVS to go get it, or to high-point a lot of contested passes. But he can move AWAY from the defender, pretty instinctively. He doesn't have the juice to blow the doors off corners if they're even, but he DOES have enough juice to force the DB to commit to staying on top, and therein lies the comeback routes/curls.
And when teams try to zone up, Juju starts getting open in the seams.
Good point. As Seth pointed out MVS played an important role in the SB even though he did not catch a pass. Also, MVS and Patrick were off just a titch on several big plays over the course of the season. If they clean that up next year… Strongly agree about toughness, consistency and depth this year. Much improved (all around) over last year.
Yup. You just can't force it to him on a go route, because chances are he won't win in that way. That doesn't mean you won't ever go deep to him. You have to keep the threat alive. That's not how he wins. But the threat still needs to be honored, because if he's OPEN or Patrick puts the ball away from the defender, he CAN go get it. He just can't go over or through people.
He's got a bit of a Tony Gonzalez tendency to square up, rather than changing shoulders, without breaking stride, which requires looking away from the QB. Kelce does that. Steve Largent used to do that. My big brother and I worked on that way back in the early '70s, before Largent, mostly because I didn't want to jump up and land on my back, on purpose, not because I was thinking YAC.
It used to annoy me with Tony G, because when you pivot that way, you're not getting any YAC. Tony got his receptions that way, but we lost a lot of close games, late, because he'd land on his back, in-bounds, instead of catching it in stride, with a CHANCE of getting out of bounds and stopping the clock.
I always got a sense of futility in those situations, because Tony would always get the ball and never get to the sidelines, even on throws that set it up. He'd always square up and jump. There were some throws where it was too high for the jump, but if he could've switched shoulders, and kept running, he had a chance to go get it. In my opinion.
Usually - for 3.9 quarters - just making the catch is GREAT, and you WANT your guys to attack the ball, but there are situations where if you stay in stride and run under it, you can just keep on runnin'. There are also some throws you have a better chance of catching if you don't break stride. It's a judgement call. It's hard enough to train guys to attack the ball to waste much time trying to get them to switch shoulders with the ball in the air. It IS more passive, and you never want to get high-pointed on because you tried to run under it instead of high-pointing it.
And honestly, IMO that drop 8 issue was overrated. Mahomes tore it up the first half of that game. He just played badly the 2nd half, against multiple different looks.
And I think that's the ultimate answer here... Basically do what you can to make things hard, have a lot of variety to the gameplan (CIN, for example, was pretty aggressive with blitzing in the regular season matchup this year with some success), don't do the same thing you did last time, and hope Mahomes has an off day.
I'm definitely curious. The rush 3 and spy has been the plan that has most consistently worked, BUT... watching Reid absolutely hammer Philly with the run game has to give defensive coordinators pause with regards to that plan, as does the lack of the right personnel to execute it well.
From just watching the game on TV, it felt like he was as great as ever. But it’s reassuring to read that from someone who has watched and graded every play.
Mahomes has been a unicorn since he became a starter. And now he has taken it to another level.
Mahomes is absolutely a wizard. He's gonna give me a heart attack, but I love watching him work. But can someone explain to me why in the 2nd gif Mahomes throws to a spot that makes JuJu stop rather than leading him a bit and allowing JuJu to have a chance to get a bit of YAC? Is it because he likely saw 22 (off screen to the right) would have come in & lit JuJu up? Because Kelce might have grabbed it and not gotten enough for a 1st down? I know he's got Thuney in his lap as he throws and this might have made a different throw impossible.
I think because he had to worry about the Middle LB coming back off Kelce and either knocking it down or intercepting it so he puts it a safe distance away while still allowing for JuJu to have room to make the catch.
1) Wylie and the OL are rightfully getting a lot of credit for an excellent performance (vs. the last SB loss) but it helped a lot that we ran the ball significantly more and snap-to-pass times were greatly reduced.
2) Over the course of this season and in this game in particular, it felt like Patrick fully installed the 'Tom Brady' upgrades, by which I mean he did what was required to win rather than trying to force any particular plays.
#2 in particular has me excited for the future, since I felt like it was the big obstacle to maximizing his potential. I have no idea how they're going to stop him now and I love it!
It also helps that the whole O-line was playing in the same positions, as a unit, all season long. People act like playing O-line is simple, and maybe it is if your coach and QB are idiots who bring nothing to the table. But with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, you are asked to do a lot of complex stuff, some of which changes on the fly at the line of scrimmage, and all of which requires significant reps to master before you go to war with the largest, fastest, strongest, most relentless humans the earth has ever produced. Pass rushers are like trying to wrestle a goddamn tiger 50 times a game, and to hold all 4 tigers back from your quarterback for 2.5 seconds is a win - think about that. 2.5 seconds. How impossible to block must these guys be that a combined 1500+ lbs of humanity can't stop ~1100 lbs of pass rusher for 2.5 seconds ~20-30% of the time?
Now imagine trying to do that in the biggest game of your life in a position you haven't played before.
But it didn’t work, because Mahomes is just as good at reading defenses post-snap as he is pre-snap. And this is where his “does everything well” ability comes into play. Most quarterbacks live in a certain methodology based on their strengths. Do they rely on pre-snap reads or their ability to digest information quickly post-snap? Their arm or their athleticism? Creation or knowledge of the schematic options? Mahomes doesn’t have to choose, because he can do literally all of it at a high level.
That’s just awesome and I’m so grateful he’s our QB!
After decades in the wilderness, we in KC have the best football player on the planet. And it's not even close. How fun is this!
Thank you Brett Veach.
And thank you, Seth, for such consistently great analysis. A week is a long time between games, but you keep us informed, educated, and entertained. You rock.
I was thinking Mahomes left some yards on the field with that throw across the middle to JuJu being behind him. But you clearly show that he had no other option with the LB so incredibly close. Wow!
Regarding PMII, I rarely fully appreciate what my eyes see until you break it down, Seth. And I can't much articulate it afterward. But for a moment I get it and am both mesmerized and in awe. Thank you!
I think establishing the run is often taken to mean "running the football over and over again" (stupid), when what it really means is, "demonstrate that you will at least pretend to run the football and/or throw a screen pass/jet sweep, anytime in any situation, so the pass rush can't tee off on your quarterback."
Now, I'll freely admit, a lot of the "establish the run" folks do mean "run the ball 7 times in a row" (the stupidest and most costly way of establishing the run), when they should mean "run a play-action pass on 2nd and 7, knowing that it will slow the pass rushers down by 0.3 seconds, and allow the WR routes to develop." But that doesn't mean we should stop doing the latter, just because the former is stupid.
Sometimes if you’re blessed you get to see a Maestro at work in all his glory. PM15 used the whole orchestra to deliver a masterpiece to the biggest audience. That we’re his everyday minions makes it that much sweeter. Great article w/ great analysis on a great performance. Simply “Greatness”!
He makes it so easy to write about his play, because there are constant improvements and changes!
Really enjoy your analysis Seth, keep up the good work!
Yes. Good, honest product and subscribed.
I very much appreciate that!
Thanks!
I remember how much he "struggled" at the beginning of last year to adapt. This game was what all that work and experience was for.
No clue what the league tries next. A bunch of different stuff maybe? Maybe back to the Bengals plan of rushing 3 and spying? It doesn't matter how good your defense is, so maybe they'll just go all in on offense and hope they can outscore us?
Philly almost made the all offense idea work. Chiefs D is much improved and underrated. 2 FGs and one 3 and out was all it took. I expect we will see many more 4th down and other gambles next year with teams desperately trying to keep the Chiefs offense off the field.
If the NFL changes the push the pile rule I don't see that working, but it would be exciting!
The Bengals trick wasn't just "drop 8", but "show a different defense pre-snap and *then* drop 8." It only works when the QB isn't accustomed to seeing a different look pre-snap vs post-snap. Because the Bengals did that in the biggest game of the season, and left two of the most competitive, relentless minds in football to obsess over it all off-season, they innoculated Mahomes and Reid against this tactic for the future. Opposing defenses are going to have to come up with something brand new.
Agree. I would also add that was the one half game (over his whole pro career) where Patrick looked average. My belief is it was an outlier.
It was definitely an outlier. But credit to Mahomes and the Chiefs offensive coaching staff for not simply discarding it from their memories. That's why we're Super Bowl champs this year - Mahomes learned to see the difference between a pre-snap and a post-snap look, but the Eagles defense didn't and got caught for 2 TDs as a consequence.
Appreciate the “inoculated” analogy. Truly, the CoPat15 virus cooked up in the nefarious Cincinnati grid iron lab was defeated by Andy burning many midnight hours in his own R&D facility. 🍾
I think the WR group is very underrated for its toughness, consistency and depth. There were some guys they used relatively sparingly in the short passing game all season, but unlike the game against Tampa Bay, KC was exploiting the holes in the middle of the field.
MVS didn't make as many big plays as Tyreek Hill, but he was good enough to keep defenses honest, and burn them when they underestimated him. He had his repertoire, and he affected the way opponents defended the Chiefs. He was also very durable.
Clearly Mahomes can't just out-throw the corner and safety and expect MVS to go get it, or to high-point a lot of contested passes. But he can move AWAY from the defender, pretty instinctively. He doesn't have the juice to blow the doors off corners if they're even, but he DOES have enough juice to force the DB to commit to staying on top, and therein lies the comeback routes/curls.
And when teams try to zone up, Juju starts getting open in the seams.
Good point. As Seth pointed out MVS played an important role in the SB even though he did not catch a pass. Also, MVS and Patrick were off just a titch on several big plays over the course of the season. If they clean that up next year… Strongly agree about toughness, consistency and depth this year. Much improved (all around) over last year.
All of that is why I'd be very surprised if they moved on from MVS next year. I think he's more valuable than people realize.
Yup. You just can't force it to him on a go route, because chances are he won't win in that way. That doesn't mean you won't ever go deep to him. You have to keep the threat alive. That's not how he wins. But the threat still needs to be honored, because if he's OPEN or Patrick puts the ball away from the defender, he CAN go get it. He just can't go over or through people.
He's got a bit of a Tony Gonzalez tendency to square up, rather than changing shoulders, without breaking stride, which requires looking away from the QB. Kelce does that. Steve Largent used to do that. My big brother and I worked on that way back in the early '70s, before Largent, mostly because I didn't want to jump up and land on my back, on purpose, not because I was thinking YAC.
It used to annoy me with Tony G, because when you pivot that way, you're not getting any YAC. Tony got his receptions that way, but we lost a lot of close games, late, because he'd land on his back, in-bounds, instead of catching it in stride, with a CHANCE of getting out of bounds and stopping the clock.
I always got a sense of futility in those situations, because Tony would always get the ball and never get to the sidelines, even on throws that set it up. He'd always square up and jump. There were some throws where it was too high for the jump, but if he could've switched shoulders, and kept running, he had a chance to go get it. In my opinion.
Usually - for 3.9 quarters - just making the catch is GREAT, and you WANT your guys to attack the ball, but there are situations where if you stay in stride and run under it, you can just keep on runnin'. There are also some throws you have a better chance of catching if you don't break stride. It's a judgement call. It's hard enough to train guys to attack the ball to waste much time trying to get them to switch shoulders with the ball in the air. It IS more passive, and you never want to get high-pointed on because you tried to run under it instead of high-pointing it.
John Ross could do the same, but it's hard to bank on that.
And honestly, IMO that drop 8 issue was overrated. Mahomes tore it up the first half of that game. He just played badly the 2nd half, against multiple different looks.
And I think that's the ultimate answer here... Basically do what you can to make things hard, have a lot of variety to the gameplan (CIN, for example, was pretty aggressive with blitzing in the regular season matchup this year with some success), don't do the same thing you did last time, and hope Mahomes has an off day.
I'm definitely curious. The rush 3 and spy has been the plan that has most consistently worked, BUT... watching Reid absolutely hammer Philly with the run game has to give defensive coordinators pause with regards to that plan, as does the lack of the right personnel to execute it well.
Can't wait for the ESPN Hot Take people to read this, or things like it, and say that Mahomes is just a game manager.
hahaha system QB
Giggled the whole way thru. What a time to be alive.
I thought i was the only one who giggled when I see these replays.
We had many years in the wilderness. Enjoy this brother!
It's the best!
I'll repeat this quote, “There is no force on Earth more deadly than Patrick Mahomes with a 10-point deficit.”
Followed closely by an Andy Reid with a Patrick Mahomes at QB!
Andy is having the time of his life. Watch the sheer joy shine thru at times.
Can’t say it enough.
hahaha I love that.
Mahomes has to be an alien, right? That would also explain the Kermit the frog voice that doesn’t match his body at all…. It’s all making sense now
https://y.yarn.co/c45b39ff-300b-4c86-bd4f-106d07b5f1d4.mp4
Also the bionic ankle.
Fantastic analysis, Seth.
From just watching the game on TV, it felt like he was as great as ever. But it’s reassuring to read that from someone who has watched and graded every play.
Mahomes has been a unicorn since he became a starter. And now he has taken it to another level.
Mahomes is absolutely a wizard. He's gonna give me a heart attack, but I love watching him work. But can someone explain to me why in the 2nd gif Mahomes throws to a spot that makes JuJu stop rather than leading him a bit and allowing JuJu to have a chance to get a bit of YAC? Is it because he likely saw 22 (off screen to the right) would have come in & lit JuJu up? Because Kelce might have grabbed it and not gotten enough for a 1st down? I know he's got Thuney in his lap as he throws and this might have made a different throw impossible.
As always, great work Seth.
I think because he had to worry about the Middle LB coming back off Kelce and either knocking it down or intercepting it so he puts it a safe distance away while still allowing for JuJu to have room to make the catch.
Agree. It was the middle linebacker.
Mahomes is Captain Kirk
Extending on a couple items you mentioned:
1) Wylie and the OL are rightfully getting a lot of credit for an excellent performance (vs. the last SB loss) but it helped a lot that we ran the ball significantly more and snap-to-pass times were greatly reduced.
2) Over the course of this season and in this game in particular, it felt like Patrick fully installed the 'Tom Brady' upgrades, by which I mean he did what was required to win rather than trying to force any particular plays.
#2 in particular has me excited for the future, since I felt like it was the big obstacle to maximizing his potential. I have no idea how they're going to stop him now and I love it!
It also helps that the whole O-line was playing in the same positions, as a unit, all season long. People act like playing O-line is simple, and maybe it is if your coach and QB are idiots who bring nothing to the table. But with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, you are asked to do a lot of complex stuff, some of which changes on the fly at the line of scrimmage, and all of which requires significant reps to master before you go to war with the largest, fastest, strongest, most relentless humans the earth has ever produced. Pass rushers are like trying to wrestle a goddamn tiger 50 times a game, and to hold all 4 tigers back from your quarterback for 2.5 seconds is a win - think about that. 2.5 seconds. How impossible to block must these guys be that a combined 1500+ lbs of humanity can't stop ~1100 lbs of pass rusher for 2.5 seconds ~20-30% of the time?
Now imagine trying to do that in the biggest game of your life in a position you haven't played before.
Best paragraph...
But it didn’t work, because Mahomes is just as good at reading defenses post-snap as he is pre-snap. And this is where his “does everything well” ability comes into play. Most quarterbacks live in a certain methodology based on their strengths. Do they rely on pre-snap reads or their ability to digest information quickly post-snap? Their arm or their athleticism? Creation or knowledge of the schematic options? Mahomes doesn’t have to choose, because he can do literally all of it at a high level.
That’s just awesome and I’m so grateful he’s our QB!
That paragraph should be required reading for up and coming analysts.
After decades in the wilderness, we in KC have the best football player on the planet. And it's not even close. How fun is this!
Thank you Brett Veach.
And thank you, Seth, for such consistently great analysis. A week is a long time between games, but you keep us informed, educated, and entertained. You rock.
These are the good old days!!!
I wish I would have thought of your screen name. Well done!
I was thinking Mahomes left some yards on the field with that throw across the middle to JuJu being behind him. But you clearly show that he had no other option with the LB so incredibly close. Wow!
Regarding PMII, I rarely fully appreciate what my eyes see until you break it down, Seth. And I can't much articulate it afterward. But for a moment I get it and am both mesmerized and in awe. Thank you!