Looking at how Mahomes' film review numbers stack up against previous seasons and how he improved yet again. Where (if anywhere) can he get even better?
Speaking of nitpicks, I have a little tiny one that's not very significant: I'd like to see him improve his accuracy on the short swing passes and screen passes out to the flat. This is not really a complaint. It's just an observation I've made before.
There's always room for improvement, but he took huge strides on this front last season. Like you, this was my one criticism of Mahomes - he often rushed his short passes to the flat in situations where he had ample time to set his feet and place the ball perfectly.
But in 2022, he was much, much better at taking the short dink-and-dunk passes, completing them at a high success rate, and even getting touchdowns out of them. Look a Jerrick McKinnon's stats for evidence - 541 yards after the catch, 9 receiving TDs, and a 130 passer rating on his targets. Pacheco's stats show Mahomes' progress in short pass accuracy too, with 13 receptions on 14 targets. In short, I think Mahomes had room for improvement, and in 2022, he made that improvement a reality, and won the MVP in the process.
Now I think the biggest area of improvement for him is deep shot plays, oddly enough. If he can maintain what he did last season and add a little more touch on the deep ball (or just get in sync with his receivers, like Seth said, re: MVS), he'll surpass 5000 yards easily, even with our unproven receiving corps.
Prior to last year I would've agreed. I think that's the area he made up some ground on accuracy last season (though he missed a couple on the bad ankle). But every now and then his footwork catches up to him there!
I’ve noticed that Mahomes likes to throw deeps balls with less arch and instead use more power. This isn’t ideal for a lot of deep throws where you want to lead the receiver and allow them to be able to run under the ball. He needs to learn how to put more air under the deep balls and let guys run under them in stride rather than trying to rifle them in which usually forces the receiver to adjust their position or movement to the ball. He had many balls like this to MVS last year where MVS had to turn around, contort, jump, etc rather than just run under the ball. Russell Wilson was amazing at these types of throws. Just beautiful arch hitting receivers deep and in stride. As Seth alluded to, it’s costing Mahomes some major yardage and deep ball TD’s by causing receivers to have to break off or adjust their route/body position. If he develops this part of his game and finds that “touch” needed for deep balls, watch out. He may break every single season record in existence.
Totally agree - lots of examples. Seems to be under the radar, given that he could raise his odds of long receptions easily. Given that he's a guy who's always thinking and always driven, seems weird to me that this isn't way up there on the radar ....
He's not bad at it, and even pretty good overall, but definitely a place where you see the difference between him and Wilson (who has one of the best in the league). And I agree, he's gotta learn to moon ball a bit more.
A completion is a completion so I’m not complaining. He’s just missing out on some deep TD’s IMO, if he were to put some air under it and hit those guys in stride. Prime Wilson was something to behold in that regard. That guy could float the deep pass like no other.
I always look forward to reading your work. Incredible insight that I frankly don't realize I'm seeing, but know exactly what you're talking about when you explain it.
When the sample size is relatively small - like games in a season - things can be thrown off by which games are selected. I noticed that the first Denver game in which Mahomes had three picks was not included. That game was weird from beginning to end, to be sure. I know there are countless demands on your time, but I for one would read a Mahomes film review every week to ensure the greatest possible sample to prove his superiority.
I was disappointed to see he was unanimous Tier 1 in Sando's ranking. Last year, there was one defensive coach who labeled him tier 2. I am sure that fueled spite plenty to show that guy that thought he was an average post-snap processor. I guess he is going to have to fuel his competitive prickishness somewhere else this year.
If memory serves, one of those picks was off a deflection/the hands of a pass catcher? And one of the other ones was just an insane diving play by Patrick Surtain, who I hate to admit is an elite corner right now. Your point remains for the sake of preventing cherry-picking though.
They can, to be sure, although my experience is once you get beyond 6 games or so you've got at least an "OK" sample size in terms of comparing to other seasons (barring injuries, the offensive system and support are relatively similar throughout that year).
I'd love to do a Mahomes piece every week! Unfortunately, time becomes an issue and there are times where a more pressing issue takes precedence. I'll try to get above 14 next year!
I think the only challenge each year for him is managing the looks they give him each week on defense while working around any injuries and quirks of the Chiefs schedule. That and working on getting the 1 seed to get that all important week off in the playoffs.
No. It won’t matter. Tom got the most out of his talent; Patrick is otherworldly. He does things I’ve never seen, rarely makes mistakes, he’s unbelievable. I was giving you a hard time on Twitter… those people there are mean. Still love Jamaal.
I loved watching Quarterbacks on Netflix and seeing his deep level of preparation both physically and mentally for each game. He seriously drives for continuous improvement and consistency each week and is his own worst critic. With all that said he is also a unique leader. It’s not magic, all of this makes him one of one. It’s not by accident or luck. I am definitely looking forward to this year.
Totally agree! His passion for the game runs deep , but he always focuses on the positive and picks up everyone on the team around him in the process. He keeps the team always believing as long as there is time on the clock and just has fun. His mindset sets him apart.
And if you were a Chief, how could you NOT believe after seeing him produce the unbelievable so many times?! How many times did Lazarus have to be raised from the dead?
Great read. Not sure if you need to ask Nate Taylor about this, but Nate said he has talked to Patrick about his photographic memory. My question is how do you think this helps and hurts Patrick as a quarterback?
For example, is one of the reasons the Bengals DC is successful against Mahomes is because he goes against his normal scheme they play against other quarterbacks?
Mahomes mentioned in Quarterback that he learned from Alex Smith how to study defensive player's tendencies while watching film. So is the only way now to best Patrick is to go against your normal game plan and habits?
I do think that with any QB with a terrific memory, you can rob them of that advantage by showing similar looks and behaving differently post-snap. That's why reading pre-snap vs reading post-snap are such different (and arguably equally important) traits!
And Lou is just a terrific DC in one-off performances (as well as overall). I'm bummed he didn't get a HC job, both because he's earned it and because he makes CIN way tougher.
I will never, ever get bored with reading or hearing about the greatness of Patrick Mahomes. He is asymptotically approaching complete quarterback perfection.
This is great stuff, but my one suggestion is, it would be great to display all three seasons in one table, so we can see the year-to-year changes more easily.
Hahaha - this is why they invented "Fiverr". Find yourself a data guy in Indonesia who works overnight, and boom, you got your on-demand data collation person!
If Mahomes finds room for improvement every season, surely Seth Keysor can, too! 🤣
He's the best ever over any 5-year span, let alone the first 5 years of a career. I am really hoping for better tackle play this year. If he gets that, he will be better than ever. The mental and physical preparation, experience, Andy Reid and raw talent along with his confident humility all put him on track to be the undisputed G.O.A.T. I'm glad he's ours!
You chart potential INTs, but what about ACTUAL INTs? Keeping in mind that some of those are the QB’s fault, some the receiver’s, and many we’ll never know since we don’t know the playcall or route adjustments.
I obviously can't speak for him, but presume that Seth charts actual interceptions as potential interceptions if assessing that most of the blame lies with Mahomes.
Great stuff and more Mahomes greatness! I know his potential INT are down, but actual are up vs 2019 & 2020... In his own words this was an area he needed to get rid of that one bad play a game in 2022. "Bad play* vs aggression seems right.. Do you feel his self critique is accurate? Did he trend up towards the end?
T. J. Houshmandzadeh and Skip are probably the only "neutral" football analysts who don't consider Patrick to be the greatest football player to grace the game in quite some time.
Last summer Travis Kelce got a whole bunch of tight ends together to talk about and work on ways of being even better tight ends. This summer Derrick Henry got a whole bunch of running backs together to scheme ways to increase their incomes.
I can't help but notice the contrast between the performance-oriented winner mentality and the selfish, perhaps even whiny, not-winner mentality. No wonder the Chiefs win super bowls while the Titans sit by and watch.
That's a good question, and any answer would be pure speculation. His performance on the field certainly suggests that he's much closer to the Kelce end of it. But the fact that he says all the right things while he's currently not doing the right things makes me wonder a bit. I just can't wrap my head around the idea of "only" $20 million or "only" $28 million or wherever we are now. Not for a defensive player, even one as undeniably great as Jones is. Every Chiefs fan should know by now that it is offense, and not defense, that wins championships in this current era of football.
I agree that we don’t know the details, so difficult to judge. But it certainly doesn’t look favorable for Chris. His new contract will likely approach or exceed $100M. IF (and we don’t know) he is haggling for the last $1-2M/year, Uncle Sam is getting 50% of that, so bottom line for Chris is pretty small in the big picture. Does he really hate training camp so much that he is willing to forfeit $50K/day just to avoid it?
Regarding the whole "offense wins championships these days" thing: I probably should have added that that will change eventually because these things are always cyclical. But for right now that's definitely the part of the cycle that we're in!
Totally agree. Don't blink. It still astounds me that there are a few (casual) sports fans in KC that don't realize what we are witnessing here. Pickleball courts should be completely empty during Chiefs games. But seriously, thanks for another fun read, Seth. Keep on Excel'ing.
Speaking of nitpicks, I have a little tiny one that's not very significant: I'd like to see him improve his accuracy on the short swing passes and screen passes out to the flat. This is not really a complaint. It's just an observation I've made before.
There's always room for improvement, but he took huge strides on this front last season. Like you, this was my one criticism of Mahomes - he often rushed his short passes to the flat in situations where he had ample time to set his feet and place the ball perfectly.
But in 2022, he was much, much better at taking the short dink-and-dunk passes, completing them at a high success rate, and even getting touchdowns out of them. Look a Jerrick McKinnon's stats for evidence - 541 yards after the catch, 9 receiving TDs, and a 130 passer rating on his targets. Pacheco's stats show Mahomes' progress in short pass accuracy too, with 13 receptions on 14 targets. In short, I think Mahomes had room for improvement, and in 2022, he made that improvement a reality, and won the MVP in the process.
Now I think the biggest area of improvement for him is deep shot plays, oddly enough. If he can maintain what he did last season and add a little more touch on the deep ball (or just get in sync with his receivers, like Seth said, re: MVS), he'll surpass 5000 yards easily, even with our unproven receiving corps.
Prior to last year I would've agreed. I think that's the area he made up some ground on accuracy last season (though he missed a couple on the bad ankle). But every now and then his footwork catches up to him there!
If the deep ball accuracy continues from what we have seen in camp this year, that will definitely improve as well.
I like it a lot!
I’ve noticed that Mahomes likes to throw deeps balls with less arch and instead use more power. This isn’t ideal for a lot of deep throws where you want to lead the receiver and allow them to be able to run under the ball. He needs to learn how to put more air under the deep balls and let guys run under them in stride rather than trying to rifle them in which usually forces the receiver to adjust their position or movement to the ball. He had many balls like this to MVS last year where MVS had to turn around, contort, jump, etc rather than just run under the ball. Russell Wilson was amazing at these types of throws. Just beautiful arch hitting receivers deep and in stride. As Seth alluded to, it’s costing Mahomes some major yardage and deep ball TD’s by causing receivers to have to break off or adjust their route/body position. If he develops this part of his game and finds that “touch” needed for deep balls, watch out. He may break every single season record in existence.
Totally agree - lots of examples. Seems to be under the radar, given that he could raise his odds of long receptions easily. Given that he's a guy who's always thinking and always driven, seems weird to me that this isn't way up there on the radar ....
I can promise you that it is!
He's not bad at it, and even pretty good overall, but definitely a place where you see the difference between him and Wilson (who has one of the best in the league). And I agree, he's gotta learn to moon ball a bit more.
A completion is a completion so I’m not complaining. He’s just missing out on some deep TD’s IMO, if he were to put some air under it and hit those guys in stride. Prime Wilson was something to behold in that regard. That guy could float the deep pass like no other.
I always look forward to reading your work. Incredible insight that I frankly don't realize I'm seeing, but know exactly what you're talking about when you explain it.
Hey, that's a really high compliment!
When the sample size is relatively small - like games in a season - things can be thrown off by which games are selected. I noticed that the first Denver game in which Mahomes had three picks was not included. That game was weird from beginning to end, to be sure. I know there are countless demands on your time, but I for one would read a Mahomes film review every week to ensure the greatest possible sample to prove his superiority.
I was disappointed to see he was unanimous Tier 1 in Sando's ranking. Last year, there was one defensive coach who labeled him tier 2. I am sure that fueled spite plenty to show that guy that thought he was an average post-snap processor. I guess he is going to have to fuel his competitive prickishness somewhere else this year.
If memory serves, one of those picks was off a deflection/the hands of a pass catcher? And one of the other ones was just an insane diving play by Patrick Surtain, who I hate to admit is an elite corner right now. Your point remains for the sake of preventing cherry-picking though.
They can, to be sure, although my experience is once you get beyond 6 games or so you've got at least an "OK" sample size in terms of comparing to other seasons (barring injuries, the offensive system and support are relatively similar throughout that year).
I'd love to do a Mahomes piece every week! Unfortunately, time becomes an issue and there are times where a more pressing issue takes precedence. I'll try to get above 14 next year!
I think the only challenge each year for him is managing the looks they give him each week on defense while working around any injuries and quirks of the Chiefs schedule. That and working on getting the 1 seed to get that all important week off in the playoffs.
It makes me so mad that they made it actively harder on the Chiefs to get a bye than it was for Touchdown Tom for his entire Patriot career.
In 20 years when we're having the GOAT argument, the difference of a couple of Super Bowls could matter :(
No. It won’t matter. Tom got the most out of his talent; Patrick is otherworldly. He does things I’ve never seen, rarely makes mistakes, he’s unbelievable. I was giving you a hard time on Twitter… those people there are mean. Still love Jamaal.
I loved watching Quarterbacks on Netflix and seeing his deep level of preparation both physically and mentally for each game. He seriously drives for continuous improvement and consistency each week and is his own worst critic. With all that said he is also a unique leader. It’s not magic, all of this makes him one of one. It’s not by accident or luck. I am definitely looking forward to this year.
Nice observation. Kirk Cousins came off as whiney workman who HAD to do his job; Patrick LOVES the job.
Totally agree! His passion for the game runs deep , but he always focuses on the positive and picks up everyone on the team around him in the process. He keeps the team always believing as long as there is time on the clock and just has fun. His mindset sets him apart.
And if you were a Chief, how could you NOT believe after seeing him produce the unbelievable so many times?! How many times did Lazarus have to be raised from the dead?
Once. It was one time. After that he was on his own.
😉. Patrick; the QB who finds honor in his own league and time. 🥳
Great read. Not sure if you need to ask Nate Taylor about this, but Nate said he has talked to Patrick about his photographic memory. My question is how do you think this helps and hurts Patrick as a quarterback?
For example, is one of the reasons the Bengals DC is successful against Mahomes is because he goes against his normal scheme they play against other quarterbacks?
Mahomes mentioned in Quarterback that he learned from Alex Smith how to study defensive player's tendencies while watching film. So is the only way now to best Patrick is to go against your normal game plan and habits?
I do think that with any QB with a terrific memory, you can rob them of that advantage by showing similar looks and behaving differently post-snap. That's why reading pre-snap vs reading post-snap are such different (and arguably equally important) traits!
And Lou is just a terrific DC in one-off performances (as well as overall). I'm bummed he didn't get a HC job, both because he's earned it and because he makes CIN way tougher.
I will never, ever get bored with reading or hearing about the greatness of Patrick Mahomes. He is asymptotically approaching complete quarterback perfection.
It's incredibly fun to watch happen in real time.
This is great stuff, but my one suggestion is, it would be great to display all three seasons in one table, so we can see the year-to-year changes more easily.
👍
I'M JUST ONE MAN DANGIT hahaha
Your children need some chores to help “pops”.
Hahaha - this is why they invented "Fiverr". Find yourself a data guy in Indonesia who works overnight, and boom, you got your on-demand data collation person!
If Mahomes finds room for improvement every season, surely Seth Keysor can, too! 🤣
He's the best ever over any 5-year span, let alone the first 5 years of a career. I am really hoping for better tackle play this year. If he gets that, he will be better than ever. The mental and physical preparation, experience, Andy Reid and raw talent along with his confident humility all put him on track to be the undisputed G.O.A.T. I'm glad he's ours!
You chart potential INTs, but what about ACTUAL INTs? Keeping in mind that some of those are the QB’s fault, some the receiver’s, and many we’ll never know since we don’t know the playcall or route adjustments.
I obviously can't speak for him, but presume that Seth charts actual interceptions as potential interceptions if assessing that most of the blame lies with Mahomes.
Great stuff and more Mahomes greatness! I know his potential INT are down, but actual are up vs 2019 & 2020... In his own words this was an area he needed to get rid of that one bad play a game in 2022. "Bad play* vs aggression seems right.. Do you feel his self critique is accurate? Did he trend up towards the end?
Very nice.
T. J. Houshmandzadeh and Skip are probably the only "neutral" football analysts who don't consider Patrick to be the greatest football player to grace the game in quite some time.
Intentional clickbait I believe. 🙄
Skip's burner account? Lol. I know most think Bayless' disdain for Patrick is an act, but it still ruins the show for me.
Last summer Travis Kelce got a whole bunch of tight ends together to talk about and work on ways of being even better tight ends. This summer Derrick Henry got a whole bunch of running backs together to scheme ways to increase their incomes.
I can't help but notice the contrast between the performance-oriented winner mentality and the selfish, perhaps even whiny, not-winner mentality. No wonder the Chiefs win super bowls while the Titans sit by and watch.
And where do we think Chris Jones falls on that spectrum?
That's a good question, and any answer would be pure speculation. His performance on the field certainly suggests that he's much closer to the Kelce end of it. But the fact that he says all the right things while he's currently not doing the right things makes me wonder a bit. I just can't wrap my head around the idea of "only" $20 million or "only" $28 million or wherever we are now. Not for a defensive player, even one as undeniably great as Jones is. Every Chiefs fan should know by now that it is offense, and not defense, that wins championships in this current era of football.
I agree that we don’t know the details, so difficult to judge. But it certainly doesn’t look favorable for Chris. His new contract will likely approach or exceed $100M. IF (and we don’t know) he is haggling for the last $1-2M/year, Uncle Sam is getting 50% of that, so bottom line for Chris is pretty small in the big picture. Does he really hate training camp so much that he is willing to forfeit $50K/day just to avoid it?
👍 Well said!
Regarding the whole "offense wins championships these days" thing: I probably should have added that that will change eventually because these things are always cyclical. But for right now that's definitely the part of the cycle that we're in!
Totally agree. Don't blink. It still astounds me that there are a few (casual) sports fans in KC that don't realize what we are witnessing here. Pickleball courts should be completely empty during Chiefs games. But seriously, thanks for another fun read, Seth. Keep on Excel'ing.