The "Mahomes vs Tua" debate is a good teaching moment
The "Mahomes vs Tua" debate is a good teaching moment
Once more, we need to address the fact that statistical analysis of quarterbacks is fraught with peril if utilized incorrectly.
Everyone loves a good stat when it comes to sports.
Numbers are concrete. They are tangible. They are something that we can easily compare/contrast. They provide the appearance of objectivity, as they are merely a counting of something that occurred (rather than offering an opinion as to what something looked like, etc). They also help us avoid being deceived, as we can actually quantify things rather than just taking a shot at how often they are/aren’t happening.
I love citing stats. They’re fun, and they can provide important context over a period of time. Heck, I wrote an entire article about how Patrick Mahomes breaks various statistical charts.
In short, charting various statistics when it comes to player performance, at both the quarterback and every other position in the NFL, is incredibly valuable and provides us with significantly more information than we’d otherwise have. It’s a good thing.
Of course, like many other good things, there are potential problems that can arise from the utilization of statistical analysis. And some of those have been on display over the last few days. In the throes of the offseason, we’ve been left with certain “stories” making and staying in the news cycle given the lack of real news to discuss. One of those things has been former Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who has made some waves with his new podcast and some of the comments he’s made on it.
I have no interest in breaking down everything Hill said (though the idea that he was underutilized last season, where he saw by far the highest number of targets of his career despite his yards per target going way down as defenses geared up towards stopping him, is fascinating). What I do have an interest in, though, is good football discourse. And whether he intended it or not, Hill’s podcast has started a fascinating amount of discourse that… well, it’s not good. And that brings us to how to talk about numbers and quarterback play. And how not to.
Now, to be clear, I doubt this argument is being made entirely in good faith. But some real arguments are being made that circle this position, and it’s an excellent opportunity for us to look at how purely statistical analysis of quarterbacks can go askew. So let’s use this as a moment to grow together, talking first about why utilizing numbers alone to gauge a quarterback is problematic, then discussing how utilizing stats without properly contextualizing them can do more harm then good.
Stuff like this is why I started charting quarterback snaps in the first place, so it’s loads of fun to talk about. Let’s make the discourse a little better together, shall we?