Great work as always! I can't believe how lucky we are that he is on our favorite team. It is really the most fun I've ever had watching sports. I could watch Mahomes highlights all day every day!
Thanks, Seth, fun read. The other thing I watched in Mahomes is his presence on camera during interviews. It's like he's taken lessons. To be the face of the NFL is not an easy task requiring a level head, controlled tongue, and the savvy to know what people want to hear. Patty M makes us bust with pride on and off the field. I get why other teams are jealous :)
I took a "Sports Law" class taught by Leigh Steinberg in law school. I guarantee he has taken lessons. One of the things Leigh stressed was the importance of counseling clients before and after they signed in order to maximize their marketability.
Thank you, Seth. Great fodder for preparing for the coming season. I have a suggestion that you might find challenging…how about noodling out a formula weighting all these metrics as you deem appropriate to yield a numeric “Patrick Perfection” score each season? This would be similar to the traditional quarterback and QBR ratings. 🤔🧐. Think it over; I would enjoy assessing the year over year changes.
Also, I am optimistic that the offense can again be the undisputed Death Star force of the past. Especially because I am seriously concerned about the effectiveness of our cornerbacks. Patrick may have to engage in many shootouts. By the way, I heard someone from the team describe Patrick thus far as “otherworldly”. Perhaps he is still in Super Bowl mode? 🤩🎉🥳
I like that idea! I'd have to consult with a numbers guy to see how they'd try and support that...
I have some concern about the CB room outside McDuffie, but it's worth noting Watson and Williams have both played quite a bit the last few years without being a weak point. So we'll see! The pass rush has me worried in terms of it being as high level as we got used to last year.
I lean your way on Watson and Williams but Soren, Jeffri and Sam have been painting a picture of despair about them in preseason. And Nazee hardly sees the field due to injuries. They were all a big part of our last two SB wins so I can’t understand how they have collectively fallen off a cliff simultaneously. But Brett has been pretty active on the waiver wire for CB help and Spags certainly hasn’t been reassuring. 😳😬. What says Nate? Maybe Hicks can play corner?! 🤞.
And yes, pass rush is concerning. Wondering if Felix ever turns the page. If Thomas can just become some version of Danna…! Please heal quickly, Charles.
It is amazing to see multiple years of deep analysis - thanks so much. It would take weeks for me to absorb what all this means, but one thing that has always popped out to me: His Inacc out of pocket is better than his inacc in the pocket numbers - consistently. So ... why? My theory is that his lifelong history of gunslinging puts him into a different mode or level of concentration when he extends the play and even when he makes some franchise throws he finds the play and always executes. So what's your theory on that, Seth? And bonus question: How many of his franchise throws happen in the pocket versus out?
You almost took the words right out of my mouth, Mike. And when you say "consistently", it's not hyperbole. It's roughly four times better every season. In my mind, it's what separates Pat from mere mortal QBs. It's his out-of-the-pocket performance where most of his "Magic Mahomes" moments occur.
'Inaccuracy out of pocket' and 'Inaccuracy in pocket' refer to the number of inaccurate throws. The best way to understand what this actually means is as follows (using 2023 numbers):
Inacc OOP: .9
Acc OOP: 4.6
Average throws out of pocket per game: 5.5
Accuracy out of pocket: 83% (4.6/5.5)
Inac IP: 3.5
Acc IP: 25.2
Average throws in pocket per game: 28.7
Accuracy in pocket: 87.8% (25.2/28.7)
Remarkably, he is only slightly less accurate out of the pocket. This is one of the stats that probably sets him far apart from other QBs.
Sorry if that wasn't made clear enough! I really appreciate the kind words. One thing to note, even with the misunderstanding, is that (as Peter noted) his accuracy doesn't drop a whole lot outside the pocket. One reason for that is he can throw accurately moving both ways, an almost unheard-of trait.
One of the things Pat does amazingly well that helps his outside pocket accuracy is when he moves out of the pocket, he moves very intentionally moving the defense with both his body and his eyes to open lanes for him to throw receivers open. It’s an underrated part of his “magic”.
Your Mahomes' content is my favorite, and you always skillfully breakdown what it is that makes Pat superhuman. All of your content is well articulated and excellent, regardless of the subject, but it's not easy to articulate the greatness of Pat Mahomes. Pat is the alpha and omega of all the Chiefs' success since he dropped into our laps in 2017. It's possible that the team could be successful without him, but it's his brilliance that guarantees it. No one tells the story of Mahomes more succinctly or more accurately than you do, Seth. It makes it even easier to appreciate just how amazing Pat is and how fortunate we are that he calls KC home.
What's wild is that as good as he is game in and game out he seems to have another gear when it's the playoffs or make or break moments in games. He may well be both the most talented and most clutch QB of all time.
What Nye said. Analytics tries to tell me there’s no such thing as the clutch gene and then I watch Mahomes and my lyin’ eyes are telling me the truth. Mahomes is the best football player I’ve ever seen AND the most clutch athlete I can recall since Michael Jordan. Watching him is so much fun. So much.
Amazing. That first throw you posted (vs the raiders) still blows my mind. It's like the ball phase through the defenders body into Kelce's hands.
Last year was a special Mahomes' season for totally different, and potentially, more valuable reasons than any other year. What do you do when things aren't working? How do you block out outside noise and self-doubt, and overcome? That playoff run was the most incredible run of all time (in my inexperienced opinion). Like you said, as things were intensifying, he only played better and smarter, and he helped the entire team do the same. Last season was a beautiful chapter in the Mahomes story - one that taught me lessons for my own life. I can't wait to see how he takes the growth of last year, and applies it to this new roster. No matter the result, it's going to be another 17+ games of one of the most incredible athletes in human history that I get to witness - hopefully one of them in person.
Thanks for all the work, Seth. Can't wait to go through another season with everyone here at CITN.
Thanks, as always, Seth! I will be sending the link for this article to a very stats/advanced metrics-focused Substack writer (that I enjoy arguing with) who couldn’t figure out why Mahomes had a “down” year last year. He’s a 24 year old studying to be an economist and for him it’s always all about the numbers. Nice guy. He wrote a 5 or more part article series about why people need to appreciate Trent Green more.
I may use my replies to him, with some of the reasons for Patrick’s 2023 season stats dip that I discovered, for an article of my own. Much less well-researched than yours are, of course, but everything I found supported my belief that the offensive issues weren’t QB1’s fault at all. It’s not always about the numbers and the box score- context, in whatever form it may take, is vital to understanding what’s actually going on in any given game.
Whenever I see clips of the 2018 offense I wonder --- is Patrick really better now?
How much was it the players around him --- not only when you had Hill and healthy Watkins, but Hunt for half the season and a very good OL --- and how much was it how defenses played?
I get it. You can watch the film and see how he has become more disciplined, more efficient. I'm not at all denying that's a good thing. But sometimes, I wonder if JUST A SMIDGE TOO MUCH of the improvisational magic and risk-taking has been coached / beaten out of him. Feels like he throws short of the sticks on 3rd and long more than he used to, for example. Or there is more conceding on early downs to set up those 3rd and longs. And I can blame coaches and playcalling a bit in that as well.
In the end, wouldn't the best Chiefs team be the 2018 offense with the 2023 defense? How much of that is Patrick and how much isn't? Or would the 2018 offense not work against 2023 defenses?
Seth, I really don't know how you find the time to do everything you do. You are much appreciated!! I am so ready for the game this week. I wonder what amazing things Patrick and the team pulls off this season. Go Chiefs!!!!!!!!!
Great work as always! I can't believe how lucky we are that he is on our favorite team. It is really the most fun I've ever had watching sports. I could watch Mahomes highlights all day every day!
I completely agree!
Real Football is about 5 days away.... can't wait to see what Pat does this season!
Thanks, Seth, fun read. The other thing I watched in Mahomes is his presence on camera during interviews. It's like he's taken lessons. To be the face of the NFL is not an easy task requiring a level head, controlled tongue, and the savvy to know what people want to hear. Patty M makes us bust with pride on and off the field. I get why other teams are jealous :)
I took a "Sports Law" class taught by Leigh Steinberg in law school. I guarantee he has taken lessons. One of the things Leigh stressed was the importance of counseling clients before and after they signed in order to maximize their marketability.
It takes a unique personality to absorb coaching at the level of PM. He's also very good at monitoring his words. Another often missing talent.
I mean, he's learning from Andy Reid.... lol
Andy is one of the best at saying a lot without saying anything. Still love him tho.....
He's very, very, very aware of public image/persona and how important that is in ensuring legacy. He's also (from all accounts) just a nice dude.
Thank you, Seth. Great fodder for preparing for the coming season. I have a suggestion that you might find challenging…how about noodling out a formula weighting all these metrics as you deem appropriate to yield a numeric “Patrick Perfection” score each season? This would be similar to the traditional quarterback and QBR ratings. 🤔🧐. Think it over; I would enjoy assessing the year over year changes.
Also, I am optimistic that the offense can again be the undisputed Death Star force of the past. Especially because I am seriously concerned about the effectiveness of our cornerbacks. Patrick may have to engage in many shootouts. By the way, I heard someone from the team describe Patrick thus far as “otherworldly”. Perhaps he is still in Super Bowl mode? 🤩🎉🥳
Agree. I am also optimistic that the D will remain in the top 10.
I like that idea! I'd have to consult with a numbers guy to see how they'd try and support that...
I have some concern about the CB room outside McDuffie, but it's worth noting Watson and Williams have both played quite a bit the last few years without being a weak point. So we'll see! The pass rush has me worried in terms of it being as high level as we got used to last year.
I lean your way on Watson and Williams but Soren, Jeffri and Sam have been painting a picture of despair about them in preseason. And Nazee hardly sees the field due to injuries. They were all a big part of our last two SB wins so I can’t understand how they have collectively fallen off a cliff simultaneously. But Brett has been pretty active on the waiver wire for CB help and Spags certainly hasn’t been reassuring. 😳😬. What says Nate? Maybe Hicks can play corner?! 🤞.
And yes, pass rush is concerning. Wondering if Felix ever turns the page. If Thomas can just become some version of Danna…! Please heal quickly, Charles.
Wow! That’s what I call effort. You went above and beyond with this article my man. Appreciate you.
Glad you enjoyed!
It is amazing to see multiple years of deep analysis - thanks so much. It would take weeks for me to absorb what all this means, but one thing that has always popped out to me: His Inacc out of pocket is better than his inacc in the pocket numbers - consistently. So ... why? My theory is that his lifelong history of gunslinging puts him into a different mode or level of concentration when he extends the play and even when he makes some franchise throws he finds the play and always executes. So what's your theory on that, Seth? And bonus question: How many of his franchise throws happen in the pocket versus out?
You almost took the words right out of my mouth, Mike. And when you say "consistently", it's not hyperbole. It's roughly four times better every season. In my mind, it's what separates Pat from mere mortal QBs. It's his out-of-the-pocket performance where most of his "Magic Mahomes" moments occur.
'Inaccuracy out of pocket' and 'Inaccuracy in pocket' refer to the number of inaccurate throws. The best way to understand what this actually means is as follows (using 2023 numbers):
Inacc OOP: .9
Acc OOP: 4.6
Average throws out of pocket per game: 5.5
Accuracy out of pocket: 83% (4.6/5.5)
Inac IP: 3.5
Acc IP: 25.2
Average throws in pocket per game: 28.7
Accuracy in pocket: 87.8% (25.2/28.7)
Remarkably, he is only slightly less accurate out of the pocket. This is one of the stats that probably sets him far apart from other QBs.
Got it - wasn’t tracking accurately
Sorry if that wasn't made clear enough! I really appreciate the kind words. One thing to note, even with the misunderstanding, is that (as Peter noted) his accuracy doesn't drop a whole lot outside the pocket. One reason for that is he can throw accurately moving both ways, an almost unheard-of trait.
One of the things Pat does amazingly well that helps his outside pocket accuracy is when he moves out of the pocket, he moves very intentionally moving the defense with both his body and his eyes to open lanes for him to throw receivers open. It’s an underrated part of his “magic”.
This is the best analysis site, bar none. Bravo, Seth. And...what a time to be a Chiefs fan.
It's a GREAT time to be a Chiefs fan! Thanks you!
Perfect 👌
Your Mahomes' content is my favorite, and you always skillfully breakdown what it is that makes Pat superhuman. All of your content is well articulated and excellent, regardless of the subject, but it's not easy to articulate the greatness of Pat Mahomes. Pat is the alpha and omega of all the Chiefs' success since he dropped into our laps in 2017. It's possible that the team could be successful without him, but it's his brilliance that guarantees it. No one tells the story of Mahomes more succinctly or more accurately than you do, Seth. It makes it even easier to appreciate just how amazing Pat is and how fortunate we are that he calls KC home.
Great article.
What's wild is that as good as he is game in and game out he seems to have another gear when it's the playoffs or make or break moments in games. He may well be both the most talented and most clutch QB of all time.
What Nye said. Analytics tries to tell me there’s no such thing as the clutch gene and then I watch Mahomes and my lyin’ eyes are telling me the truth. Mahomes is the best football player I’ve ever seen AND the most clutch athlete I can recall since Michael Jordan. Watching him is so much fun. So much.
And that enjoyment is multiplied exponentially by him playing for OUR team. HOW did we fall into this?
Amazing. That first throw you posted (vs the raiders) still blows my mind. It's like the ball phase through the defenders body into Kelce's hands.
Last year was a special Mahomes' season for totally different, and potentially, more valuable reasons than any other year. What do you do when things aren't working? How do you block out outside noise and self-doubt, and overcome? That playoff run was the most incredible run of all time (in my inexperienced opinion). Like you said, as things were intensifying, he only played better and smarter, and he helped the entire team do the same. Last season was a beautiful chapter in the Mahomes story - one that taught me lessons for my own life. I can't wait to see how he takes the growth of last year, and applies it to this new roster. No matter the result, it's going to be another 17+ games of one of the most incredible athletes in human history that I get to witness - hopefully one of them in person.
Thanks for all the work, Seth. Can't wait to go through another season with everyone here at CITN.
Thanks, as always, Seth! I will be sending the link for this article to a very stats/advanced metrics-focused Substack writer (that I enjoy arguing with) who couldn’t figure out why Mahomes had a “down” year last year. He’s a 24 year old studying to be an economist and for him it’s always all about the numbers. Nice guy. He wrote a 5 or more part article series about why people need to appreciate Trent Green more.
I may use my replies to him, with some of the reasons for Patrick’s 2023 season stats dip that I discovered, for an article of my own. Much less well-researched than yours are, of course, but everything I found supported my belief that the offensive issues weren’t QB1’s fault at all. It’s not always about the numbers and the box score- context, in whatever form it may take, is vital to understanding what’s actually going on in any given game.
Whenever I see clips of the 2018 offense I wonder --- is Patrick really better now?
How much was it the players around him --- not only when you had Hill and healthy Watkins, but Hunt for half the season and a very good OL --- and how much was it how defenses played?
I get it. You can watch the film and see how he has become more disciplined, more efficient. I'm not at all denying that's a good thing. But sometimes, I wonder if JUST A SMIDGE TOO MUCH of the improvisational magic and risk-taking has been coached / beaten out of him. Feels like he throws short of the sticks on 3rd and long more than he used to, for example. Or there is more conceding on early downs to set up those 3rd and longs. And I can blame coaches and playcalling a bit in that as well.
In the end, wouldn't the best Chiefs team be the 2018 offense with the 2023 defense? How much of that is Patrick and how much isn't? Or would the 2018 offense not work against 2023 defenses?
I don't know the answers to these questions.
Seth, I really don't know how you find the time to do everything you do. You are much appreciated!! I am so ready for the game this week. I wonder what amazing things Patrick and the team pulls off this season. Go Chiefs!!!!!!!!!
It's this kind of analysis that I might even pay THIRTEEN dollars a year for. ;P
But seriously - we're very lucky to have you, and protecting women and children during the day? Bravo as well.
You're very kind, thank you!