Patrick Mahomes Week 8 film review; Assigning blame and the meaning of "open"

Looking at every snap of the Chiefs star quarterback on a rough day, and talking about some general concepts when deciding what a QB should (or shouldn't) be doing.

You know the drill. Every week (well, most weeks) I’ll be charting every dropback by Patrick Mahomes this year, just like I’ve done for… well, his whole career. As I laid out in the Week 1 film review (which is unlocked so you can see the methodology in more detail), statistical analysis of quarterbacks, especially in small sample sizes, doesn’t really tell us the whole story or even most of it. So I chart things that the QB can control, such as accuracy, pocket presence, franchise throws, going through reads, and more.

This article is UNLOCKED for all to read given the… controversial nature of what ails the Chiefs offense. If you like going beyond narratives and the box score, consider subscribing for $12 a year forever by clicking the link below.

Sometimes the thing isn’t The Thing. And sometimes, the thing is The Thing but there’s actually ANOTHER thing that is also The Thing.

Earlier this week, I wrote that the Chiefs have some real issues at wide receiver and it’s affecting their offensive performance. That is absolutely an issue, and it’s generally been talked about as THE issue facing Andy Reid’s offense (you know, The Thing) following a catastrophic performance against the Broncos. Of course, there was the whole “5 turnovers” thing, which is basically an insurmountable obstacle to winning NFL games, but that hasn’t been treated as The Thing.

Here’s the thing with The Thing. We tend, as fans (and analysts as well) to often look for one thing that is The Thing. And once we decide that thing is The Thing, we hammer on it and it alone, ignoring all other issues that could lead to problems for a team. It’s about the OL, or the receivers, or the QB, or the playcalling, and that one problem is the The Thing. But the reality is when a team struggles there is usually more than one issue that plagues a team. And in the case of the Chiefs, particularly this last Sunday, that’s true as well.

Because the thing is, Patrick Mahomes was also The Thing on Sunday.

There’s a very delicate conversation to be had here. On one hand, Mahomes has generally been a very good quarterback this season (I’ve charted every snap, and the links are below if you’re interested). However, he hasn’t been as great as he was in previous seasons, particularly last year when he was the best he’s ever been. But by talking about it, there’s a very real danger that people will start to treat Mahomes as The Thing (because that’s how we’re taught to talk about sports). And frankly, he’s not.

But he’s also not blameless, and that’s where we need to start (similar to a few weeks ago) by talking about his Week 8 film review. Because Mahomes, who was obviously suffering from the flu, made quite a few mistakes on Sunday. And those struggles absolutely contributed to the Chiefs’ anemic offensive output. At the same time, he also did a number of things well, and there were significant issues elsewhere that torpedoed the Chiefs.

However, I don’t know that we can have the conversation about Mahomes’ Week 8 film in a vacuum. Because part of this conversation surrounding Mahomes’ performance Sunday has been a lot of effort to point out plays where he missed open receivers (it happened, to be sure, and we’ll talk about that) or bailed on clean pockets. And in that conversation I’ve seen a great deal of confusion as to when players at the NFL level are open.

So here’s what I’d like to do today… We’re going to talk about Mahomes’ charted numbers from Sunday and where he struggled, talk about what he still did well, then have a discussion utilizing a specific example as to what would not constitute a “missed shot” (how I chart missed open receivers that should have been seen and thrown to). We’ll see if we can fit all of that into one article.

If you’re looking for the previous weeks’ film reviews, you can find them here.

-Week 1 (UNLOCKED, lays out the terms and methodology)

-Week 2

-Week 3 (no article, but the numbers are there in a week he was virtually flawless)

-Week 4

-Week 5

-Week 6

-Week 7

First, let’s look at the numbers.

*Of the “flushes” that the OL gave up, it’s worth noting that a whopping 8 of them came late in the game with the Chiefs down multiple points, a terrible position for an OL to be put in. Prior to that, the protection was overall solid.

(NOTE- Because not all passes can be charted for accuracy, like throwaways, batted balls, or when the QB is hit as he throws, the numbers will look wonky at times)

The first number that should jump out to you is that 6 under “missed shots.” And with that, let’s get right to it. A lot of conversation has surrounded receiver Skyy Moore, and he’s earned some of that with some inconsistency getting to his spots and a few really rough drops. But it’s worth noting that there are times he’s been coming open and isn’t getting throws when he should be.

The first clip above is a good example of that. Here’s what Mahomes is seeing right before he makes the decision to throw to Kelce. Note that I’m going to use arrows to roughly approximate the direction the players have traveled from and are still moving, because that directional leverage is very important to the point I’m about to make about when to make a throw and when not to.

Mahomes had glanced at the LB in the middle of the field as he dropped back, then shifted his eyes to Kelce. The defender on Kelce is doing a terrific job getting depth and staying in the throwing lane, so this route should be a no-go. In the meantime, Moore correctly reads the defense (from all appearances he was to run a dig inside or stop his route depending on what the LB does here) and stops his momentum, creating a window for the throw between the boundary CB (who is being pulled by Pacheco) and the LB (who is drifting back and towards the middle of the field).

Had Mahomes come off Kelce here, this is a pretty easy throw to Moore’s outside shoulder. Yes, the defenders would have started to adjust when he progressed left, but there’s enough space here (and the defenders are moving the wrong direction, which is important) that it would’ve worked without a problem. It’s a throw we’ve seen Mahomes make repeatedly. Here, he didn’t.

Mahomes had more missed shots against Denver than he’s had in a game since the Titans fiasco of 2021 (the worst game of his career by my charting), in which he had 7 missed shots. For frame of reference, in all of 2022 he had 9 missed shots TOTAL in the 11 games I charted, and he averaged 0.8 missed shots a game.

Moore has gotten a lot of flak (again, some of it quite deserved, let’s remember that we can have more than one thing be The Thing!), but there were three different snaps I charted him as a clear “missed shot” by Mahomes, one of which occurred due to a happy feet bailout on a good pocket.

If someone were to say “show me a snap that gives me hope in Moore,” this might be the one to show them. He does a nice job selling his initial move outside, gets the CB to commit, and then breaks back well to create space. The problem is that Mahomes never gets to him and instead bails out of a pocket that is still very functional, sprinting away from Moore’s spot and removing him as a viable target (one of his four charted “happy feet” snaps).

Mahomes ends up scrambling for a short gain, but this could have been a first down with the potential for a touchdown had he come back to Moore rather than bailing.

And it wasn’t just Moore. Popular fan punching bag MVS (who, like Moore, has earned his fair share of criticism this season) was also missed on several plays that could have been big ones.

On this 3rd and 4, the protection doesn’t hold up for long as Denver is bringing a TON of heat. However, the Chiefs have a play dialed up to take advantage of such an aggressive play call, with MVS getting down the field in a hurry with no safety help to his side of the field (the risk you take as a DC when you send six guys).

While there’s not a lot of time here, Mahomes knows this is likely coming, and he starts off looking to his right. By all accounts, he should see that the defenders both jump downhill early, giving MVS loads of space so that Mahomes can plant and drop a bomb as soon as he hits the back of his drop. This is something we’ve seen him do time and again against aggressive looks. But here, he hesitates instead and starts to move up in the pocket right into more pressure as he moves his eyes to Kelce.

Mahomes looked more hesitant and jumpy in the pocket (with his eyes dropping and looking at the pass rush) than we’re accustomed to seeing him on Sunday. Perhaps it was an issue of being under the weather, but it’s at least worth noting that two weeks earlier against the same Broncos squad he had an oddly high 5 missed shots with no flue to blame.

I don’t doubt that trust issues are creeping through for Mahomes, and I think those are very real. Both MVS and Moore have had some consistency issues with creating separation and/or getting to their spots, and as a result it almost seems like Mahomes isn’t trusting his eyes as to what is happening when they ARE doing it. And the result has been almost snowballing; The snaps they’re doing it well, he’s not firing it down the field or over the middle, and on other snaps he’s tried to trust them with a throw and they haven’t been able to win to the ball. It becomes something of a chicken and egg issue rather than one thing being The Thing.

Of course, it’s worth noting that even on a day Mahomes performed well below his usual, he still made multiple big plays and throws to balance things out to an extent.

When on your quarterback’s worst day he’s still drilling some franchise throws and creating yardage at a high level compared to a lot of QB’s, that’s a good thing. The problem is Mahomes’ bad stuff combined with the other stuff (turnovers, consistency issues with the receiver group, and a couple of REALLY unfortunate protection breakdowns at exactly the wrong time), you end up with a complete fiasco of a game. Had Mahomes been in demigod mode, the rest of the mistakes wouldn’t have mattered. But instead, he was contributing to the mistakes, and it helped kill drives.

The short story is that if someone is trying to tell you that the receivers were The Thing, they’re wrong. And if someone tells you Mahomes was The Thing, they’re also wrong. It’s not either/or, it’s both/and. And in the Mahomes era that’s been incredibly rare. But we do ourselves no good if we don’t acknowledge that through 8 games, Mahomes has played like an average QB with plenty of mistakes at least 3 different times.

We’ve got five years of experience to tell us Mahomes will get stuff right, so for me it’s somewhat good news that he was a part of the problem on Sunday. We’ll see how it looks moving forward, but it’s worth noting that picking just the receivers as The Thing isn’t completely accurate.

If you’ve read this far and aren’t a subscriber, I’m guessing you’re someone who likes to go beyond the box score. And if that’s the case, I think you’ll like what we do here every week, and you can subscribe for $12 a year FOREVER with this button, and then read about what is a missed shot and what is not.

What is a “missed shot?” And what is it NOT?

Let’s talk about being open in the NFL against zone coverage, shall we? I showed this play (a 3rd and 14, h/t to Nick Jacobs for discussing it first) on Twitter/X and asked people if they thought Justin Watson (top of screen) was open down the field. The response was resoundingly “yes.”

(There’s a whole lot of “second play” after this ended, including McKinnon coming open late RIGHT as Mahomes is starting to throw it away on the run, but for purposes of this thought exercise the “fist play” portion is what we’re looking at).

Here’s the basic response I received; Yes, look at how much space he has!

(Big circle is obviously Watson. I’ve circled the two checkdowns, Gray on top and Jet on the bottom, as well. Most people agreed MVS, bottom of screen, and Kelce, surrounded by two defenders, are covered)

However, it should be noted that the former NFL wide receiver, former NFL offensive tackle, and former NFL employee (one of the best follows on Twitter/X if you want to learn a great deal more nuance about the game) all said the same thing; NO, he’s not open.

But how could that be? Well, here are their quotes, because all of them combined say it better than I could.

Hughes - Gotta read QBs shoulders & eyes to determine why/how a WR is open on sidelines. D is baiting QB. Underneath DB gave cushion b/c Pat's eyes & shoulders are focused on middle&our right side. If he flips fully to the left, both DBs converge on Watson before ball gets close.

Schwartz (comparing it to a completed pass on another play) - I don’t think it’s the S, it’s the guy under sinking into the space. The first play the WR is working back to the ball and as Pat would continue looking at the route he’d sink deeper. Second one the WR continues up and away from the underneath defender so he can throw him open.

Honest NFL - These “vision” zone coverages are really hard to play guessing games with because the defenders are keying the QB’s eyes and shoulders while feeling out the routes in their area as opposed to matching them, so from a QB perspective, it’s hard to draw conclusions on what would happen on the side away from where the eyes are. They’re not running a route concept that’s particularly adept to beating Cover 3 there anyway. At best it’s a completion to the flat.

This is a wonderful bunch of information regarding how to gauge whether an NFL receiver is open against zone, and hopefully in the limited space I have left I can summarize it a bit.

With zone coverage, the leverage and movement of the defenders is almost as important as space, as is the direction the QB is turned and facing. When defenders who have their eyes on the QB (a “vision” zone coverage as opposed to a “match” zone coverage) and are already drifting towards a receiver, or have their feet set to plant and go, they can close an INCREDIBLE amount of space very quickly. Which brings us to the above snap.

Note how, with the maximum spacing Watson has up top, it’s while Mahomes is facing right (away from Watson). That allows those defenders to watch and wait. If he comes back right, the underneath defender will “sink” further down the field, preventing a throw on a line, while the safety over the top will be ready to plant and drive on a throw that takes too long to get there (preventing a rainbow).

The nature of zone coverage when defenders have their eye on the QB is also why those checkdowns to Jet or Gray aren’t realistic options on 3rd and long. By the time Mahomes resets and throws to either of them, multiple defenders between them and the 1st down marker will start to close from different angles. It’s a sucker’s gambit that the defense WANTS him to take (remember when Alex Smith consistently took those looks?) because they can make the tackle well short of the sticks.

So what can you take away from this? Keep in mind that not all space/separation is created equal in the NFL. When deciding whether a player is a “missed shot,” (a receiver the QB should’ve targeted due to being open), ask yourself a few questions:

• Is the defense playing man or zone and, if zone, are they matching routes or watching the QB?

• Where are the quarterback’s eyes/hips/shoulders and how is that affecting the apparent separation?

• Are there defenders underneath and/or over the top, and if so, what direction are they moving? Where is their leverage?

• What stage of the progressions is the route at in relation to the play (if you can tell such things)? Keep in mind that NFL offenses are predicated on timing and progressions. Read 1 is supposed to come open at a certain time, Read 2 at a certain time, Read 3 at a certain time, etc.

• Am I properly taking into account how fast NFL defenders close on passing lanes and routes once the QB commits to a throw?

• Is there any pressure that would interfere with the QB being able to set and fire?

It won’t be a sure thing, but asking those questions can help you see things a little more closely to how those involved in the league see them. We’ll never get it perfect (no one does, and some of this is very subjective!), but we can do the best we can.

And maybe, as a final piece, we can remember that The Thing is almost never really The Thing. It’s generally lots of things coming together. And right now, Patrick Mahomes is ONE of the things that went wrong Sunday… as are the receivers. Here’s hoping that both get on track sooner rather than later.