Looking at every snap of the Chiefs star quarterback on a rough day, and talking about some general concepts when deciding what a QB should (or shouldn't) be doing.
Absolutely. I just got done talking about this with Soren on 810. Andy tried utilizing his run substitutes (sweeps, quick throws, screens, misdirection, etc), and Vance Joseph has his defense VERY ready for them. The obvious alternative, knowing your QB is under the weather and not himself, is to start trying to run the ball more. And they just didn't do it nearly enough.
It's definitely worth noting that they only had the one possession in the 3rd Q and then it was suddenly a 2-TD game, which is really unfortunate.
Seth, good point - I brought this up in your last column: you have developed a very sophisticated analysis of the QB and passing game - is there something analogous for the run game aside from cum rushing yards - which IMO doesn’t capture the reality. How do measure whether you are succeeding situationally (eg can you get 3 when you needed 3 - rather than did you get a lot of yards but aren’t able to convert on 3rd or 4th and 2? )
I like this! Seth, he's right. This could be a way to bring new analysis and resurrect some interest in the RBs. Mike T. great idea to really change the way we analyze and critique RBs. Already wondering how you'd track happy feet for Pacheco.
I heard you on 810 and completely agree with your idea of running some gap runs. It seems like that best suits the offensive line and Pacheco, but I almost always see us run zone plays that seem less effective. Am I seeing this correctly? If so, why do you think we run more zone than gap plays?
breaking tendency can be a good thing.. Didnt we run some duo/gap scheme in the super bowl? This is the NFL.. Most OL already know the tech to do it. Its just a matter of preference on the playcaller.
Can the Chiefs truly run if the pass isn't working? Pacheco had one good run, which skews the stats. Theoretically it would've been better to punt more rather than turn the ball over.
I felt this was the worst game I saw Pat play. Also there were many other mistakes in the game. I also still believe that this team CAN win the SB, the margin of error is very very small. Fumbles, muffed punts and drops are workable. Just can't happen all at once. Without dropped passes, the SB against TB would have been close. 15 will have bad games. Others must pick him up
Another thing that should be discussed is how Mahomes is locking onto Kelce very early and taking too long to come off. Teams know where he's looking to go.
Seth just curious as you’ve been charting Mahomes for quite a while and while every year is different have if you seen anything in play calling that’s different? We all know at the end of the day it’s Reid’s offense but it seems a bit different this year and im wondering if it could be a difference in influence since it’s Nagy at OC instead of Bieniemy?
Excellent point - AR the genius just doesn’t seem to be surprising anyone this year - interested to hear if the scheming of routes has gotten stale? Or is the skill set not up to the schemes?
"Average through 8 weeks" - I'm going to give you some pushback on this - I think he has been excellent in some quarters and really struggled in others - if average was a highway then Patrick's play would be like a Rollercoaster.
In spite of some bad halfs or quarters, he has been able to will the offense to victory up until last week... last week, I think all of the other limiting factors won out.
Hopefully they will take this game and learn from it
Excellent analysis - I feel smarter now (I’ll get dumber again as I read the comments! (Joking!!))
I’ll reiterate that I really think as PM has amazing physical and mental capabilities - it’s the emotional game that tends to fail him when things are not working. When he misses shots at this level IMO it’s due to the emotional game: frustration, greed, lack of trust (OL - WRs) that gets him. You can see late in games where he starts forcing it, bailing and locking in early. Notwithstanding that there were in fact open receivers, he has to be very frustrated that he doesn’t trust the WRs that are getting the snaps. The next two games will show us where we stand.
We have way too short of a memory here. There were struggles with Patrick and wide receivers last year for about half of the year. He didn't trust them, he tried to do too much, he settled down, they won a Super Bowl. Oversimplifying intentionally.
This is pure psychology. Relationship building, trust building, all of it is based upon the interaction between two human beings. I'm guessing EB handled a lot of this last year, but I don't necessarily think Nagy has that skillset to that degree. There needs to be some relationship counseling between QB and each WR.
I do not think Skyy Moore sucks. I think he's made some good plays, but he's made some really boneheaded mistakes and I don't think he has the right coach to help him through it. Connor Embree was a forgettable halfback who hasn't had much of a direct to player coaching career. He was a QC guy before becoming the Chiefs WR coach. So we have a coach that is still developing who has 1 year of playing for the Jayhawks as a RB in charge of developing Moore, Rice, Ross (pre-list), and at times Washington. He is also in charge of getting MVS to perform (he has had 1.5 seasons of middling work product with us) and dealing with the larger-than-life Toney.
I do not claim Embree is "The Thing" as Seth tried so hard to use, but I do think he's contributing to the lack of development.
So we have round 2 of Patrick isn't comfortable yet. We have Nagy who just isn't as vibrantly infectious as EB (he has other admirable qualities though), a coach in over his head and some needed relationship therapy that no one seems to be in charge of.
Whether to prevent Domestic Violence or it's to help grow QB-WR relationships, the Chiefs need Occupational Therapists.
I assume "The Thing" is not referencing Ben Grimm...the first time ever to pass up a Marvel character?
Overall, I enjoyed the deep analysis. Of course there's no such "thing" as demigod 'mode' (you either ARE or AREN'T one). Patrick is an excellent player, and it's nice to read about him as such: not as a unicorn, dragon, jedi, or whatever. And the sample plays you highlighted are illuminating.
The question for me is if Patrick TRULY believes in these receivers, as he has repeatedly claimed, why won't he go to them? There will be drops along the way of course. But is he simply fixated on Kelce and therefore not seeing the field as well?
At least The Thing wasn't dr.doom! Weirdly knowing it's partly pats fault makes me feel better that they can get the offense fixed. To your point on trust maybe it's time the least trusted guys get lower snaps than the more trusted dudes.
My question is, where has Toney been? He seemed to be someone who was going to be an instrumental piece to this offense this season, but he’s barely made an impact (a positive one at least), especially the last couple games. When he first came over last season, he seemed to be getting more shots down the field than he’s seen this season.
You're telling me Burrow wouldn't consider Watson open there for a throw to the sideline? Open is subjective.
I can't see a reason that Pat couldn't put a ball up high at the sideline where only Watson can get it. Watson has made some great plays at the sideline this year.
Maybe Pat thinks he can create a better option. It is an option though and it's the best one on this play.
Loved the missed shot addendum. Like you said yesterday on x the fact that pat missed stuff makes me feel better especially since the wr room isn't changing. Hopefully they'll be motivated off the loss and respond to all the talk this week on sunday because if they don't, they're gonna have to change things up FYI Sammy Watkins is still a free agent.
I was at the game and it was a tough place to be on Sunday. I'm a Chiefs season ticket holder living in Denver for over 20 years, so this has been a very nice streak for me, especially since Manning was here. It's quite the bummer to lose the streak as I really enjoyed it after years of listening to spoiled Broncos fans over the years.
When I watch the tape, I certainly see mistakes and some great plays by the Broncos Defense. But more than anything, I see a sick QB who was a half second to a second behind all of his normal reads and reaction times. Those lead to sacks, errant throws, missed targets, not seeing open receivers, and a general lack of anticipation that he is normally elite at feeling. No stress here, Mahomes will be fine. The Chiefs will be fine. Just need to get over the Broncos jumping on the opportunity and executing when it counted.
We've laid an egg in each of our SB years so hopefully this is a good sign that it scares them straight again this year and they get to work and dominate the rest of the year.
I think history shows us that #15 is known to have off platform throws whether it's hips, shoulders or eyes. He just need one receiver to take the mantle like Brady had w great TE and a receiver that moves the chain. Go stuff.
I think another “thing” that could be considered to have gone wrong was that they seemed to completely abandon the run.
Absolutely. I just got done talking about this with Soren on 810. Andy tried utilizing his run substitutes (sweeps, quick throws, screens, misdirection, etc), and Vance Joseph has his defense VERY ready for them. The obvious alternative, knowing your QB is under the weather and not himself, is to start trying to run the ball more. And they just didn't do it nearly enough.
It's definitely worth noting that they only had the one possession in the 3rd Q and then it was suddenly a 2-TD game, which is really unfortunate.
Seth, good point - I brought this up in your last column: you have developed a very sophisticated analysis of the QB and passing game - is there something analogous for the run game aside from cum rushing yards - which IMO doesn’t capture the reality. How do measure whether you are succeeding situationally (eg can you get 3 when you needed 3 - rather than did you get a lot of yards but aren’t able to convert on 3rd or 4th and 2? )
I like this! Seth, he's right. This could be a way to bring new analysis and resurrect some interest in the RBs. Mike T. great idea to really change the way we analyze and critique RBs. Already wondering how you'd track happy feet for Pacheco.
I heard you on 810 and completely agree with your idea of running some gap runs. It seems like that best suits the offensive line and Pacheco, but I almost always see us run zone plays that seem less effective. Am I seeing this correctly? If so, why do you think we run more zone than gap plays?
Andy has always been a zone read guy, and they're more practical with RPOs.
breaking tendency can be a good thing.. Didnt we run some duo/gap scheme in the super bowl? This is the NFL.. Most OL already know the tech to do it. Its just a matter of preference on the playcaller.
We did more of it last year than previous seasons, yes, and I'd love to see more!
Yeah that’s what I was thinking too.
I’m worried about this dolphins game. These issues are not going to get “fixed” on this travel week.
But I expect to see some shift or change after the Bye week.
Bye week + a Monday night game vs Eagles
Gives PLENTY of time to look at film.
I think we are much better in the gap scheme and strangely, we are not even running many RPOs. Hopefully, this is the week that Andy unleashes it.
Can the Chiefs truly run if the pass isn't working? Pacheco had one good run, which skews the stats. Theoretically it would've been better to punt more rather than turn the ball over.
This is a very good point to be sure (that one good run skewed things), but hammering away a bit would've been at least instructive.
I felt this was the worst game I saw Pat play. Also there were many other mistakes in the game. I also still believe that this team CAN win the SB, the margin of error is very very small. Fumbles, muffed punts and drops are workable. Just can't happen all at once. Without dropped passes, the SB against TB would have been close. 15 will have bad games. Others must pick him up
Yeah it feels like the margin is thinner but weirdly it's because of the offense this year which makes me feel like maybe it's not that thin?
Thanks for shining some objective analysis on too many underwhelming outcomes so far this season. Love it!
Love the objective analysis, Seth! Best in the business!
Another thing that should be discussed is how Mahomes is locking onto Kelce very early and taking too long to come off. Teams know where he's looking to go.
Seth just curious as you’ve been charting Mahomes for quite a while and while every year is different have if you seen anything in play calling that’s different? We all know at the end of the day it’s Reid’s offense but it seems a bit different this year and im wondering if it could be a difference in influence since it’s Nagy at OC instead of Bieniemy?
Excellent point - AR the genius just doesn’t seem to be surprising anyone this year - interested to hear if the scheming of routes has gotten stale? Or is the skill set not up to the schemes?
"Average through 8 weeks" - I'm going to give you some pushback on this - I think he has been excellent in some quarters and really struggled in others - if average was a highway then Patrick's play would be like a Rollercoaster.
In spite of some bad halfs or quarters, he has been able to will the offense to victory up until last week... last week, I think all of the other limiting factors won out.
Hopefully they will take this game and learn from it
Excellent analysis - I feel smarter now (I’ll get dumber again as I read the comments! (Joking!!))
I’ll reiterate that I really think as PM has amazing physical and mental capabilities - it’s the emotional game that tends to fail him when things are not working. When he misses shots at this level IMO it’s due to the emotional game: frustration, greed, lack of trust (OL - WRs) that gets him. You can see late in games where he starts forcing it, bailing and locking in early. Notwithstanding that there were in fact open receivers, he has to be very frustrated that he doesn’t trust the WRs that are getting the snaps. The next two games will show us where we stand.
“Well, when you're playing good football, it's good football and if you don't have good football, then you're not really playing good football.”
We have way too short of a memory here. There were struggles with Patrick and wide receivers last year for about half of the year. He didn't trust them, he tried to do too much, he settled down, they won a Super Bowl. Oversimplifying intentionally.
This is pure psychology. Relationship building, trust building, all of it is based upon the interaction between two human beings. I'm guessing EB handled a lot of this last year, but I don't necessarily think Nagy has that skillset to that degree. There needs to be some relationship counseling between QB and each WR.
I do not think Skyy Moore sucks. I think he's made some good plays, but he's made some really boneheaded mistakes and I don't think he has the right coach to help him through it. Connor Embree was a forgettable halfback who hasn't had much of a direct to player coaching career. He was a QC guy before becoming the Chiefs WR coach. So we have a coach that is still developing who has 1 year of playing for the Jayhawks as a RB in charge of developing Moore, Rice, Ross (pre-list), and at times Washington. He is also in charge of getting MVS to perform (he has had 1.5 seasons of middling work product with us) and dealing with the larger-than-life Toney.
I do not claim Embree is "The Thing" as Seth tried so hard to use, but I do think he's contributing to the lack of development.
So we have round 2 of Patrick isn't comfortable yet. We have Nagy who just isn't as vibrantly infectious as EB (he has other admirable qualities though), a coach in over his head and some needed relationship therapy that no one seems to be in charge of.
Whether to prevent Domestic Violence or it's to help grow QB-WR relationships, the Chiefs need Occupational Therapists.
I assume "The Thing" is not referencing Ben Grimm...the first time ever to pass up a Marvel character?
Overall, I enjoyed the deep analysis. Of course there's no such "thing" as demigod 'mode' (you either ARE or AREN'T one). Patrick is an excellent player, and it's nice to read about him as such: not as a unicorn, dragon, jedi, or whatever. And the sample plays you highlighted are illuminating.
The question for me is if Patrick TRULY believes in these receivers, as he has repeatedly claimed, why won't he go to them? There will be drops along the way of course. But is he simply fixated on Kelce and therefore not seeing the field as well?
At least The Thing wasn't dr.doom! Weirdly knowing it's partly pats fault makes me feel better that they can get the offense fixed. To your point on trust maybe it's time the least trusted guys get lower snaps than the more trusted dudes.
My question is, where has Toney been? He seemed to be someone who was going to be an instrumental piece to this offense this season, but he’s barely made an impact (a positive one at least), especially the last couple games. When he first came over last season, he seemed to be getting more shots down the field than he’s seen this season.
I second this. They gave up on toney way too quickly. I feel like him, mecole and rice are the most talented dudes they have at wr
I agree on this - other than game 1 - he’s been seemingly good but in very low snap counts -
You're telling me Burrow wouldn't consider Watson open there for a throw to the sideline? Open is subjective.
I can't see a reason that Pat couldn't put a ball up high at the sideline where only Watson can get it. Watson has made some great plays at the sideline this year.
Maybe Pat thinks he can create a better option. It is an option though and it's the best one on this play.
Is he open or not? It's semantics.
Loved the missed shot addendum. Like you said yesterday on x the fact that pat missed stuff makes me feel better especially since the wr room isn't changing. Hopefully they'll be motivated off the loss and respond to all the talk this week on sunday because if they don't, they're gonna have to change things up FYI Sammy Watkins is still a free agent.
I was at the game and it was a tough place to be on Sunday. I'm a Chiefs season ticket holder living in Denver for over 20 years, so this has been a very nice streak for me, especially since Manning was here. It's quite the bummer to lose the streak as I really enjoyed it after years of listening to spoiled Broncos fans over the years.
When I watch the tape, I certainly see mistakes and some great plays by the Broncos Defense. But more than anything, I see a sick QB who was a half second to a second behind all of his normal reads and reaction times. Those lead to sacks, errant throws, missed targets, not seeing open receivers, and a general lack of anticipation that he is normally elite at feeling. No stress here, Mahomes will be fine. The Chiefs will be fine. Just need to get over the Broncos jumping on the opportunity and executing when it counted.
THIS.
We've laid an egg in each of our SB years so hopefully this is a good sign that it scares them straight again this year and they get to work and dominate the rest of the year.
I think history shows us that #15 is known to have off platform throws whether it's hips, shoulders or eyes. He just need one receiver to take the mantle like Brady had w great TE and a receiver that moves the chain. Go stuff.