Patrick Mahomes Week 1 film review: Methodology and return of the Pat (sorry)

We're back, charting every single dropback by the Chiefs quarterback to separate his play from the box score and those around him.

This article is unlocked for everyone to provide a glimpse of how we’ll be breaking down Patrick Mahomes’ snaps this year (and every year). If you like this sort of analysis beyond the box score, you can subscribe for $12 a year by clicking this link.

We’re so back.

If I were to pick one longstanding analysis tool that has been the cornerstone of how I’ve been doing covering the Chiefs for the last decade (and more, MAN time flies), it’s reviewing and charting quarterback play in a way that goes beyond the box score and separates the QB’s play from those around them. I did it for Alex Smith for years, and I’ve been doing it every season of Patrick Mahomes’ career. It is, by far, the most rewarding and “let’s pull back the curtain and figure out what is REALLY going on” aspect of this site (and my entire work, if I’m being honest).

Each week here, I re-watch the all-22 and chart every single dropback by Mahomes (and before him, Alex Smith). The purpose? Trying to accurately quantify how well a quarterback plays the game.

(Longtime readers who are familiar with the process here and how I analyze QB snaps, as well as how Mahomes has fared by this charting over the last several years, can skip ahead to the next section. Everyone else, or anyone who needs a reminder of how this works… this intro is for you!)

It’s very tough to say how well a quarterback performed in a given game based on the numbers. That’s an absolute fact. Even the best statistical tools we have (such as expected points added, completion percentage over expected, QBR, etc.) are all hindered by the same flaw as more basic stats in that they measure the result rather than what the quarterback specifically did on a given play.

You know the drill… a 2-yard screen pass can result in 75 yards and a touchdown while a gorgeous 15-yard out from the opposite hash can result in an incomplete pass if the receiver doesn’t do his job (or, you know, a perfectly on-target throw can turn into a pick-six due to a drop). In short, the statistics, even the best ones, tell us the “what,” not the “how.” And the “how,” as well as eliminating other factors involved in the play, is necessary to evaluate the quarterback if we’re interested in knowing how HE played, not how the offense as a WHOLE played.

To use more recent examples… according to the box score, Mahomes hitting a holy-crap-wide-open Xavier Worthy on a throw hundreds and hundreds of QB’s could make in their sleep is better than a play like this:

This is a throw that only a small number of humans on the planet can execute. When you include the absolute wizardry to escape the pass rush while remaining calm and keeping his eyes down the field? Like, two other dudes in the world could do this with any sort of regularity. And the box score doesn’t tell you that.

So for those who haven’t been reading here or at The Athletic (or SB Nation before that), I set out years ago to try and find a way to quantify what really matters from a quarterback’s play: Accuracy, pocket presence, vision/awareness, playmaking, and ball protection. If a quarterback does these things well, he’ll consistently play well.

With that in mind, when I watch a quarterback’s all-22 film I review each snap and chart the following:

• Plays/yards created- This is a way to quantify how often the QB is making things happen when things break down on offense due to pressure, no one getting open, etc. It’s a way to really see how often a QB is “carrying” the offense. It’s rarer than people realize, and Mahomes is (unsurprisingly) basically in a class by himself.

• Franchise QB throws- you know them when you see them . How often is the QB making those 15-yard outs to the opposite hash, throwing with terrific anticipation, driving the ball into a tight spot, etc? Much like plays/yards created, it demonstrates how often a QB is making tough plays vs taking advantage of others making plays or the structure of the offense winning.

• Multiple-read plays- How often is the quarterback scanning the field? How often is his first read open? What does he do in games where he has to go to his second and third read over and over?

• Accurate/inaccurate throws from both in and out of the pocket- Completion percentage doesn’t tell us whether the throw was good, because the receiver could well have bailed out the QB on a bad throw OR could have dropped an incredible one. Hence, accuracy charting tells us much more about the QB separate from the offense and/or receiver.

• Flushes (plays the quarterback is forced to bail out due to pressure before anyone is open)- Is the OL keeping the QB clean constantly, or is he running for his life? Knowing that helps unlock what the QB is doing on his own.

• Drops by receivers and yards cost- This is a pretty obvious one.

• Potential interceptions- Because a bad throw is still a bad throw even if the defender drops it. These are reserved for plays a defender should likely have picked it off (or would have if it weren’t for the WR breaking it up). This also helps us weed out interceptions that aren’t on the QB, like a dropped pass that tips into the air.

• Missed shots- A receiver who was open and should have likely been seen, but wasn’t. It’s crucial to try and view this within the framework of the reads as best as we can tell, and it’s another thing stats miss in terms of opportunity cost.

• Happy feet- When a quarterback bails on clean pocket or creates pressure with his movement. This helps us separate OL issues from QB issues

By looking at these things, we can separate Mahomes’ performance by the “numbers” (which are basically just tracking those things that actually measure QB play) from those around him and get a genuine idea as to how well he played in a given game (or season).

I’ve utilized this method to contextualize Mahomes by looking at Josh Allen’s divisional round performance from 2021, as well as multiple games from other elite quarterbacks. Here are Mahomes’ averaged numbers from the 2023, 2022, and 2021 seasons.

2023

2022

2021

You can find the 2023 film review summary article here. You can read in full about the 2022 season here, and the 2021 season here. I stopped charting depth of target a couple of years ago, now that Next Gen Stats makes that information publicly available. It’s a marvelous tool!

To sum up, the goal here is to answer the question of “how did the quarterback play” over the course of a single game, multiple games, or an entire season, and to do it in a way that separates his play as much as possible from play design and his surrounding talent. It’s also an effort to quantify what we’re looking at on film in a way that allows us to compare one performance to another.

Is it perfect? No. But it is, in my opinion, the most in-depth way I can do this job. And it allows us to answer with much more certainty what is (and isn’t) happening on the field. With that in mind…

Let’s get started with the Week 1 Mahomes film review charting

Let’s examine at the numbers, then talk about how Mahomes looked in his first outing of the 2024 season.

(NOTE- Not all throws can be charted for accuracy, so the numbers will look wonky at times)

The short story about Mahomes’ performance against a tough Ravens defense is that it was very, very good for a normal QB but about average for his standards, maybe a little above when you factor in franchise throws and created yards. But the interesting thing to me is that it didn’t start out that way. It started out, as the kids say, en fuego. Mahomes made accurate throws on his first 12 attempts in a row, throwing dart after dart to his receivers. This helped the Chiefs score early and move the ball well.

Unfortunately, in a bit of a replay of last year’s season opener, a few tough drops in the first half robbed the Chiefs of important yardage and even a touchdown on a dart of a throw to the returning Juju Smith-Schuster.

While this isn’t necessarily an “easy” catch (as it’s contested), it’s one that an NFL receiver absolutely has to come down with, particularly a veteran who is known for having reliable hands. Juju can’t haul it in (he turns his hands the wrong way, ironically the opposite way that Pacheco had just turned his hands a few snaps earlier when HE had a rough drop), and the Chiefs had to settle for a field goal.

But make no mistake, this is a terrific example of how the box score can lie about a QB’s performance. This is an outstanding read and throw. Mahomes sees that Juju has outside leverage, which is where the route is bringing him, and places the ball with velocity in a spot that Juju can easily get two hands on it while the defender has absolutely no shot at it. It’s a good example of how well he was placing the ball the vast majority of the day.

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Throughout the game, Mahomes was (to borrow a term from our friend Matty Lane at

KC Sports Network

) throwing with his chest. He was hitting guys on time and in the perfect spot, was threading the needle with velocity, and was confidently slinging the ball wherever he wanted any time the Ravens weren’t able to get pressure on him. It was an absolute joy to watch, particularly he and Rashee Rice picking up where they left off dicing teams up over the middle of the field.

This play/throw is just mean-spirited, for lack of a better term. Mahomes is initially (from all appearances) looking to hit Kelce underneath, but the Ravens understandably crash on the All-Universe tight end. In the meantime, Rice starts to bend his route down the field past the underneath defenders. And Mahomes decides to play “torture the zone ‘backer” with an absolute dart that is placed exactly where the LB can’t reach it and still hit Rice in stride in front of the safety.

The placement and timing of this throw is disgusting.

Mahomes has to get the ball up and around the LB while delivering with enough heat that it gets there before the safety can close in. If he places it too far to the left the LB has a shot at it. Too far to the right it’s in front of Rice in a way he can’t catch up to it. Too deep and you’re letting the safety get there and contest. Basically, there’s a small window for a perfect throw here, and Mahomes drops it in there faster than you can say “you mad, Mr. Smith?”

And that’s how much of the game went for Mahomes. He was on time, in rhythm with the offense, and delivering the ball with accuracy all over the field when the offense was working. When it wasn’t, he created yardage (like the absurd 3rd and 12 to Kelce, or a similar Houdini act to Justin Watson, or yet another late in the game to Noah Gray). He looked like everything we’ve become accustomed to seeing… a perfect game manager with total control at the line of scrimmage pre-and-post-snap who can create with his arm or legs whenever there’s more than “management” that’s called for.

In short… he’s still Mahomes. Particularly in the first half of the game (until the very last drive), where he was basically as good as it gets at the position..

That said, it wasn’t a perfect game for Mahomes. He had a pair of missed shots by my charting. One came on the very last offensive play of the game, where Mahomes could have stepped up in the pocket and delivered to Rice early rather than moving forward and outside the pocket before attempting the throw. This gave a defender time to pursue him and allowed for the tip (that he was able to catch and prevent an interception.

He also had a couple of errant plays that affected the production of rookie Xavier Worthy. The first was missed shot early in the game.

Here, Worthy is crossing the field left to right and, thanks to a nice setup and route combo with Rashee Rice, has natural leverage moving that way. It goes about how you’d expect, with the rookie running away from his defender (while showing a nice understanding of spacing in the route, for what that’s worth). He’s got plenty of open area to that side of the field for a ball to be placed in front of him.

In the meantime, Mahomes has a pretty clean pocket for the early portion of the play. He starts seeing a little bit of mud from Creed’s guy, but he’s got more than enough time to hit that back foot and see Worthy winning on his route with room to roam. However, he tucks the ball and moves forward more than is needed (one of his very few areas he’s merely “good” as opposed to elite is that his pocket movement can still be too big), and ends up running into more pressure.

This looks to me like a trust play, where Mahomes just wasn’t quite ready to look at Worthy as his first option and put the ball out there for him to go get it. I expect that to be worked out in time. Another missed opportunity to Worthy came in the end zone on the near-pick, where Worthy had some space to run to the sideline but Mahomes (who, in his defense was being smacked as he threw) had his first inaccurate throw of the game and put it too far back and inside, giving the defender a shot at it.

One of the only other negative plays of the day for Mahomes was of course his pick, where he had Rice open but was hit as he threw, resulting in the ball being inaccurate and an easy interception. That was a play where the pressure was close enough that Mahomes would’ve been better served to just eat the sack and live to fight another down.

Those handful of plays led to a game that was decent for Mahomes, but not one of his best. Of course, when the standard is set as absurdly high as it is for him, that’s not really a bad thing, and the game would’ve been exceptional by normal QB standards. The biggest things I noticed (besides the fact that his accuracy was exceptional and he’s still Mahomes when it comes to making plays) was that he was throwing the ball with absurd confidence and timing to the guys he’s used to (Kelce, Rice, Gray, even Juju), but is still feeling his way through that process with Worthy. That will be paramount moving forward given Hollywood Brown’s injury.

Another observation from the film, based on what they did against the Ravens (and with Brown’s injury), is that I’d expect to see a fair amount of 21 and 12 personnel from the Chiefs this year that lead to spread looks. They used that multiple times to get Rice 1x1 against a defender alone in space over the middle, where he was able to consistently win. By using that personnel and alignment, they can help compensate for losing their best proven man coverage separator in Brown.

The short story? The best quarterback in the world resides in Kansas City, and Week 1 was another example of incredibly high play, even if it was only another day at the office for him. I guess that’s what it looks like when you’re Patrick Mahomes.

Here’s hoping for many more games as good as (and better) for Mahomes this season. If he and Worthy are able to fast forward their chemistry? I think that’s exactly what we’ll see.