Contextualizing Mahomes; Charting Josh Allen's Divisional Round vs Kansas City

Looking at the other side of an all-time quarterback duel

When the dust settled from the Divisional Round battle between the Chiefs and the Bills, one of the first things I thought was, “that might be the best-quarterbacked game I’ve ever seen.”

This wasn’t a one-sided statement. This applied to both Patrick Mahomes, who ultimately emerged victorious, and the one who had to watch helplessly on the sideline as his defense crumbled at the end of regulation and overtime.

Ari Temkin @arisports

When he just won't die:

From all appearances, Allen did pretty much everything possible for his part to win in Kansas City. He played an exceptional game and made some incredibly clutch plays. He just fell victim to the greatest game I’ve ever seen from a quarterback whose snaps I’ve charted.

That’s not hyperbole. Mahomes essentially played the perfect game against an excellent Bills defense while creating yards and making tough throws throughout. If you’re new here, you should take some time to read about it.

Seth Keysor @RealMNchiefsfan

The Grim Reaper and perfect game. I looked at every snap by Patrick Mahomes vs the Bills. It's not like any game I've ever written about. Unlocked for all to read, because everyone needs to know what Mahomes did on Sunday.

mnchiefsfan.substack.comThe Grim Reaper and the Perfect Game: Patrick Mahomes vs the BillsIt’s basically impossible to play quarterback better than this, and it’s a game like none I’ve ever analyzed.

Shortly after that article was written, readers asked me if I would look at the other side of the coin of that game and chart Allen’s snaps utilizing the same methodology I use for Mahomes.

Part of rationale was to answer the lingering question of “who did it better.” After all, while Mahomes collected the W, we all know that there’s a lot outside the control of a quarterback and counting winz is a foolish way to gauge who the superior player was. And for as brilliant as Mahomes was… and yes, he was absolutely brilliant…

… yet there will always be those who will say that Mahomes just got lucky or had superior help, etc. And so it makes sense to go to the film and see whether that holds up under scrutiny.

Reviewing Allen’s snaps also serves the purpose of providing some context for Mahomes’ brilliance that day when compared to another fantastic performance. Further, it gives us the opportunity to compare two of the best players in the game at their position and how they win (and what they are asked to do) within their offenses, at least in a single game. In all, it’s just the sort of information-diving that we can do in July before training camp starts.

If you haven’t read a QB review here, this is the general idea/methodology:

… when I watch all-22 film I chart plays/yards created when the play breaks down, franchise QB throws (you know them when you see them), multiple-read plays, accurate/inaccurate throws from both in and out of the pocket, flushes (plays the quarterback is forced to bail out due to pressure before anyone is open), drops by receivers and yards cost, potential interceptions (because a bad throw is still a bad throw if the defender drops it), missed shots (a receiver who was open and should have likely been seen, but wasn’t), and “happy feet” (when a quarterback bails on clean pocket or creates pressure with his movement. By looking at these things, we can separate Mahomes’ (or any quarterback’s) play from the team around him and get a feel for how he himself performed in areas that actually measure quarterback performance.

Let’s look at the numbers and talk Mahomes vs Allen

To start, here are Allen’s numbers from that game by my chartings:

Now Mahomes:

There’s a lot to unpack here, but I want to note right at the start; This was literally the best game I’ve ever charted by Mahomes, or any other quarterback. So any way in which Allen surpassed what Mahomes did is genuinely astonishing, and any way he falls short isn’t a dig at what was a superb performance by Allen. With that, let’s talk about what was different for the two in the charting.

One might note that Allen created yardage on slightly fewer plays and had fewer franchise throws as a place to start. What’s interesting to me is that the “lack” of those sorts of plays isn’t necessarily on Allen, who was absolutely tremendous throughout the game and made those plays/throws when it was necessary. Some of his best throws of the day don’t even show up on highlight reels.

This is a throw that Allen and about 3 other QB’s in the league can make. The coverage is there on an RPO, and Allen just makes it happen through absurd accuracy and even more absurd velocity on the ball. I wasn’t even upset as a Chiefs fan on throws like this (and some others he made), because there’s just nothing to be done as a defender in those situations.

That said, the plays where Allen was REQUIRED to make things happen like this (whether with an insane throw, a scramble, etc) were a little fewer and farther between due to the quality of the defensive performance on the other side of the ball. While the Chiefs (oddly enough, considering what happened the next week), managed to get some pressure on Allen at times (Jones and Ingram played solid games, with some good snaps from Reed and others in support), the back end of the defense was often a mess. On several of Allen’s touchdown throws, the defense failed so spectacularly that it took away from the necessity of great QB play.

Look at what the field looks as (or right after) Allen releases the ball on his 2 late touchdowns.

While these plays are obviously different to an extent in terms of route combinations and coverages, the basic premise is identical in both of them; A massive failure in the secondary. On the first touchdown, Mike Hughes falls down when the receiver goes on his break and there’s no help available from the single deep safety. On the second, Sneed is pushed off by the receiver and the safety top over the help has been sucked downward focusing on bracketing Diggs.

While Allen gets credit for an accurate throw on each, neither is a tough read/throw given how things play out. Another of his touchdowns went down as a franchise throw due to him making the play under intense duress from the pass rush, but the receiver was completely alone in the end zone due to (stop me if you’ve heard this one before) a breakdown on the back end when Sneed and Hughes collided.

In other words, Allen, doesn’t have as many of those “forcibly moving the chains” plays because he simply didn’t need to. At the same time, when the defense did manage to make plays (particularly the pass rush) he did an excellent job creating something from nothing.

In addition to this, Allen was consistently highly accurate throughout most of the game, was consistently cool under pressure, and demonstrated phenomenal pocket presence in all situations. Having zero happy feet snaps in a game where the pass rush was having some success is wildly impressive and shouldn’t be understated. He showed complete comfort in his offense and made throw after throw with exceptional velocity and accuracy.

Not having to play hero ball isn’t a knock on a quarterback, it’s a compliment in his ability to execute and take what the defense gives him. It just so happens that the Chiefs defense gave up many of the big plays the Bills needed to stay in the game through failures on the back end of the defense. It’s worth noting that even his absolutely gorgeous, 50+ yards in the air franchise throw touchdown in the 3rd quarter was aided by a miscalculation by safety Juan Thornhill, who committed the unforgivable safety sin of letting the receiver get behind him.

So where, if anywhere, did Allen outperform Mahomes in that clash? Well, essentially the only error Mahomes had throughout the game was a happy feet snap, and Allen pitched a shutout in that department. If one were to force me to comment on it, I’d say Allen looks more comfortable and “smaller” in his movements when navigating the pocket as well as pressure, and it helps his offensive line a bit more than Mahomes does given how big Mahomes’ movements remain at times. If one were to base things off this game alone, Allen would be the quarterback with superior pocket presence.

In accuracy, I’d put the quarterbacks on equal footing for different reasons. Allen is the more accurate quarterback snap in and snap out (not a dig on Mahomes, Allen has great ball placement). However, he still has those snaps where the ball just seems to get away from him and it results in an oddly inaccurate throw. Mahomes has those as well (usually a footwork issue for him), but they don’t come come quite as often.

The other differentiating factor between the two quarterbacks, based on what I watched, was what their offense asked of them (or really, what the defense required them to do) in terms of going through reads. Both are excellent at finding open receivers, make no mistake. However, Allen doesn’t appear to process the entire field with the same fluidity as Mahomes (again, NOT an insult to Allen, we’re talking about a pair of excellent players here). He also wasn’t asked to do it as much as Mahomes was, in part because is targets were… well, they were open more often initially.

Allen also seems to have (I’m guessing coached in, due to his gun-slinging tendencies) a habit of taking the checkdown/bailout options quickly and moving on from down the field reads, at least he did in this game. To be fair, it was quite often the correct decision and the idea of a quarterback taking what is there is a sound one. Just occasionally, though (and when trying to pick nits between a pair of incredible performances, one must pick nits), it resulted in yardage left on the field.

This isn’t a terrible play, but Allen doesn’t seem to recognize the safety failing to protect the middle of the field deep while the CB gives up inside leverage. He instead comes off the read quickly and checks down to a covered receiver, and Nick Bolton ends the play before it can go anywhere.

Again, this is a nitpick between a pair of incredible performances (much like it is to note that Mahomes wasn’t as comfortable in the pocket as Allen), but those things matter when trying achieve perfection.

So what, if anything, did I take away from this exercise? The first would be to say that Allen’s game that day is one of the best 5 (or perhaps an even smaller number) I’ve ever charted by an NFL quarterback. He was exceptional throughout the day, virtually flawless and making big plays when needed. What separated it from Mahomes’ performance was the quality of defensive performance opposite him.

One can hardly blame Allen for that. After all, who is to say that he wouldn’t have made those plays even IF the coverage had been there, or the pressure had been more significant from the pass rush? I can’t say that for certain. I can only comment on what did occur. And what occurred in this instance was Mahomes having a similar level of mistake-free football while having a higher rate of tougher plays (multi-read, created plays, and franchise throws).

The second thing I’d take away is that Allen, much like Mahomes, is genuinely a fire-breathing dragon who deserved to win that day. And I can’t wait to watch these guys battle it out again.