31 Comments

This article is both informative and hilarious

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Love it. I would suggest you change deviance to deviation, however.

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You are absolutely correct, lol.

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Just incredible!

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What's crazy is that there is basically no set of criteria that you can set up that brings Mahomes back to the pack, let alone make him look bad. The man is nuts! It's a great time to be a Chiefs fan! I'm taking my son and daughter along with my dad down to the season opener against the Browns. I'm so excited for this season! Can't wait! Keep up the great work Seth. Your articles are absolutely my favorite read.

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Amazing and great to know and relish our great fortune. Now I know any non-Chiefs fan I show this will respond that he didn’t look so invincible in the Super Bowl. Point taken but there were many other factors involved there beyond Patrick and no one is perfect. But Patrick is 99.9% perfect and I am quite comfortable with that! Every other fan base would be as well. 😉🥰🤤

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If anyone ever tries to bring up the Super Bowl I discuss with them what it looks like when one charts every snap of that game:

https://mnchiefsfan.substack.com/p/patrick-mahomes-bad-narratives-and

The short story is that Mahomes played well under horrific circumstances and was robbed of what could've been considered an all time great performance by 2 dropped TDs (on miraculous throws, at that) and 2 other crucial 3rd down drops.

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Yes, I recall those too. I seldom argue those for fear of sounding like a hopelessly defensive homer and just move on to a reply that I sure like our chances this year. 👍🎉🤗

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Only asterisk is that Ethan's graph is pre-superbowl. Otherwise, good stuff.

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Right, these are all examples rather than trying to be as current as possible.

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What I hate, is that if it weren't for some drops of very catchable balls in the Super Bowl, I think Mahomes would still only have losses by less than a score on his resume. I still don't think we win the SB but I think it changes the outcome of the game enough to keep that stat alive.

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He absolutely would, and the common fan (analysts seem to have figured it out for the most part, at least those who put in the work) would default a lot less to the idea that he was somehow "exposed" in that game.

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I believe it also would have weakened the argument that he is a product of Coach Reid and the talent around him.

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Even the manner in which the SB was lost demonstrated that he was not the problem. He literally threw while parallel to the field and STILL hit his receiver in a catchable area. Somebody, for sure, brought butterfingers to the locker room and Mahomes was the only one who did not partake.

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DON'T. TAKE. HIM. FOR. GRANTED.

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Well said

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Seth - You still coming for the game? I didn't see any details.

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I am! Info to come later this week!

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See you there! I'll be the one wearing red.

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Is it bad that I read it as out-lee-er now because of how you pronounced it on #timesours that ONE time?

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I will never live down my inability to pronounce words.

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Nope! It makes you human

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It's all about....

#PatStatsFever

Barring a catastrophic injury, he will go down in history as the greatest QB ever. I still have to pinch myself every time I acknowledge that he plays for the Chiefs.

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Still feels too good to be true

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Pretty incredible. For some reason I still hear YouTubers and various people on social media from time to time talking about how overrated Mahomes and how he's a product of Reid's system and the talent around him.

Although this article is phenomenal put together and does a great job quantifying Mahomes greatness, at this point for most reasonable fans no explanation is needed. And for those that still doubt him no explanation will suffice.

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Being a Homer for the greatest ever is it’s own, and sublime, reward. I am always at peace among the naysayers. 😉🏈😏

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Wow great link to Scott Kacsmar. Very in depth articles. Thank you.

Seth what is your opinion on Player vs System/Team?

Statistical analysis measures what occurred but does not predict future results.

That’s important because we know great players elevate their team, but how do we separate the results from the team/system dynamic? It’s often said QB’s get too much credit both ways, do you agree? Just interested in hearing your thoughts on it.

For example, is it safe to say a player like Tannehill is being discredited while our Mahomes is getting extra juice?

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System and surrounding talent matters a great deal, especially given the talent level of every NFL quarterback. There are ceilings for each guy, but matching the right skillset with the right coaching and supporting cast can elevate a ton of players.

In my opinion Tannehill is the PERFECT example. In a system predicated on play action that everyone fears and consistent accuracy when there's not much pressure, he thrives. On obvious passing downs he becomes average or even worse (see where he's at on the 3rd and 6+ passing chart).

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Hey Seth. Are you going to the Browns game this Sunday? If so, are you going to be hanging out somewhere for subscribers to say hi? I will be there with my son and daughter and my dad. Would love to meet you.

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I am! Check out the article that was just posted.

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> Mahomes always throws for the sticks rather than taking checkdowns

Never really noticed this, but it's absolutely right. 3rd and 19? Better believe its 20 Air Yards.

I wonder if Vegas can fully account for this level of outlier. What kind of anytime odds could you get for a Mahomes comeback. Even?

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