Patrick Mahomes, bad narratives, and the greatest game that never was

Charting every snap of the Super Bowl to examine what actually occurred

Let’s get straight to the point: statistical analysis of quarterbacks always has been, and always will be, deeply flawed when it comes to breaking down performances in a single game.

This is largely a sample size issue and the reality of how statistics work in the NFL. A 1-yard touch pass that goes for an 80-yard TD is considered a better play than a 15-yard out from the opposite hash that gets dropped. Even more advanced measures, like Expected Points Added, are subject to this problem. Stats like Completion Percentage Over Expected don’t take into account more than depth of target and whether the pass was completed, leaving out whether the receiver dropped the ball, where it was placed, the coverage, and what had to be done to even get the ball away.

For example, let’s look at one of Mahomes’ interceptions from Sunday. This goes down in every single statistical analysis (both basic and in-depth) as a bad play. Keep in mind this play came on 3rd and 13 in the 3rd quarter with the Chiefs trailing 28-9.

Mahomes has pressure incoming from the interior here even as he reaches the top of his drop, from an angle (and with a speedy defender) that means running away from it to his left isn’t an option. He tries to drift away from it, but that brings him into the sites of another rusher who was disciplined staying outside. The ball has to come out fast.

And just in case you’re someone who has heard the “Mahomes didn’t take advantage of checkdowns” narrative, here’s a look at the whole field right as Mahomes is about to wind up. Remember, it’s 3rd and 13.

Mahomes’ options here are virtually nonexistent. Let’s work our way forward from the line of scrimmage. The running back had stayed in to block for a moment and is a full 15 yards shay of the first down marker with multiple defenders who would have the angle to close. Every other receiver is well short of the marker (and covered) or bracketed. The only real shot is Hill.

Mahomes makes an absolutely superb throw to hit that window, fitting it over the top of the underneath zone defender despite having to throw off-platform to avoid getting sacked. It’s a contested ball situation, but one where Hill should have the advantage given the placement to box out, go up, and high point it. Instead, he allows he defender to reach around him and knock it down.

The result of an incredible play by Mahomes is an interception, and the talking heads (well, some of them) use that against him when he made a play that belongs on a highlight reel. And so we see the issue with statistical analysis of a single game.

All of these problems can be partly smoothed out over the course of multiple seasons as bad luck and good luck tends to even out over time (though not completely, as supporting cast, system, and opponent are always going to be issues statistics can’t really take into account). But in a single game? It’s not very useful.

With that said, let’s talk about Patrick Mahomes and the Super Bowl. While during the game there was a great deal of acknowledgment that the blocking was poor and he wasn’t getting a great deal of help from the game plan or his receivers, it was inevitable that the “Mahomes wasn’t very good either” talk started after the Chiefs’ convincing loss.

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Since the game ended, several analysts (including some I respect) and a plethora of opposing teams’ fans have pounced on the idea that Mahomes had a major hand in Kansas City’s struggles, saying he left open receivers on the field, didn’t take checkdowns, was jittery in the pocket, wasn’t accurate, etc.

Statements like that sound great when stated into the empty air, but do they hold up under scrutiny? The only way to find out is to look at every dropback, charting for things that actually measure quarterback play as opposed to the results (which, as discussed, are largely impacted by a quarterback’s supporting cast). Fortunately, that’s exactly what I’ve been doing for years. Here’s a quick primer on what I chart in order to separate QB play from the rest of the team…

Plays/yards created: The number of plays a quarterback makes something happen despite pass protection breaking down early, and how many yards are gained.

Franchise throws: Throws that go beyond “good” and go into the realm of “you generally only see a few like this a game.” Hard to quantify, but you know it when you see it.

Multiple reads: Plays where the quarterback moves from one read to the next, charted largely to avoid mindless “he never goes to his second read” analysis.

Accuracy of throws in/out of the pocket: This is obvious, though it can’t always be charted given throwaways/etc.

Flushes: Times a QB was forced off his spot due to significant pressure before he had a chance to find receivers.

Drops/Yards lost: Another obvious one.

Potential INTs: Yes, this does matter as long as they are charted responsibly, as it gives us an idea whether the quarterback made bad throws and got lucky, or made good throws and got unlucky.

Missed shots: Open receivers who should have been seen within the course of the play. This does NOT include receivers who came open after the throw, or while the quarterback was sprinting away from pressure on the opposite side of the field and had no way of seeing.

Happy feet: Snaps the quarterback bailed out of a clean pocket or moved in a way that created pressure rather than helping his offensive line.

Let’s look at the numbers, and then talk about what the Super Bowl looked like.

(NOTES: Keep in mind that not all throws can be charted for accuracy, such as batted passes at the line and throwaways. Additionally, “Drops” do not included contested passes accurately thrown that receivers could have caught but got out-fought for. That’ll be important later. Finally, I didn’t include depth of targets due to that being widely available at this point)

For frame of reference, here’s what Mahomes’ averaged in these same statistics in his historic 2018 season utilizing this same system.

So here’s a few things worth noting. Mahomes created yards on more plays Sunday than he averaged in 2018 (when everyone was still wowed weekly by his creativity and hadn’t gotten numbed to it). He made more franchise throws than he averaged per game as well. Additionally his accuracy percentage of 83.7% was HIGHER than what he averaged in 2018. He didn’t have a clear “missed shot” that I could find (we’ll talk about Cosell’s statements on missing Hill deep shortly), and while he did have an extra happy feet snap it wasn’t out of hand.

And, of course, there’s the fact that Mahomes faced TWENTY-NINE flushes on his dropbacks. I wish I had some way of framing how incredible that is, but the best I can do is this; Last year’s Super Bowl, which has been widely regarded as the game in which Mahomes faced the most pressure he’d ever seen, saw 20 “flushes,” or 9 fewer than what he faced Sunday. Basically, about as many as you’d expect to see in a full game was the difference.

In short, Mahomes was more accurate and made just as many plays while avoiding noticeably bad ones during the Super Bowl as he was on average in 2018. In short, he played at a very high level when one looks at every single snap, and the idea that he wasn’t exceptional in terms of making the most of what he had to work with just doesn’t hold up under scrutiny.

So why didn’t that performance translate? Well, as the interception to Hill demonstrates, Mahomes making transcendent plays didn’t necessarily translate on Sunday. This was true almost immediately from the start of the game. On their second drive, Mahomes made one of the best plays of his career on 3rd and 11 and walked away with nothing.

The vast majority of NFL quarterbacks will never make a play this exceptional. Mahomes comes under duress quickly due to an unblocked secondary blitzer. He somehow beats the superior athlete with a quick juke, then moves in a way to allow his tackle to provide some protection. In the meantime, there’s no real opening for Mahomes to throw to that provides a viable shot at a first down. Here’s a screenshot prior to Mahomes releasing.

(this is a good time to remind people that looking at where defenders are AFTER a quarterback is thrown tells a false story of the coverage. NFL defenders see and close on throws with incredible speed, and even by the time the quarterback is releasing the ball they will be closing on the target. That creates the appearance of a receiver being open when he wasn’t at the time of the throw)

There are no good options here. Hardman has a defender over the top and one underneath. Kelce is well-covered down the sideline. The underneath option is far short of the first down marker with multiple defenders in position to close. This is, for nearly any quarterback, a dead play.

Instead, Mahomes manages to make a throw down the field that a handful of human beings could make, and drops the ball into an approximately 1x1 foot window to Hill (note that he hangs it deep rather than towards the sideline and Kelce’s defender). It’s an exquisite play that would go down as one of the best in Super Bowl history… and Hill couldn’t bring it in.

This drop led to the Chiefs failing to take a 7-0 lead. Given the way the game unfolded, scoring early was of crucial importance to Kansas City, and this robbed them of a big play.

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In the second quarter, with the Chiefs trailing 7-3 (when they should have been tied), a similar event occurred on 3rd and 8. This time the generally reliable Kelce was the culprit.

Mahomes finds himself under pressure almost immediately and scrambles right to buy an extra moment (notice how he was initially looking down the field? We’ll come back to that). The pursuit is good and he starts to get corralled, but he somehow manages to drive the ball down the field to Kelce for what should be a huge first down. The ball is dropped, and a bad punt later the Bucs have the ball at Kansas City’s 38-yard-line. They scored, and suddenly the Chiefs were in a 14-3 hole that allowed Tampa Bay to play a different brand of game on both offense and defense.

As best I can tell, this is the play that Cosell is referencing when he says Mahomes missed Hill early. As much respect as I have for Cosell, here’s the all-22 of this play. Note where Hill (from the slot) is and when Mahomes comes under pressure.

There’s a reason Mahomes was looking deep when he dropped back. This was supposed to be a shot play. The problem is that intense pressure gets home before the safety commits outside (and thus frees up a down the field shot back inside). So there’s no realistic way for Mahomes to know that this shot play is a good one, and he rightfully holds the ball. The idea that this is a missed shot flies in the face of the reality of the pass rush. He would have had to chuck he ball up right into a pass rusher without knowing whether the safety committed the direction they wanted.

It was that sort of day from Mahomes. And of course, there was perhaps his best play of the day, which ended in another incomplete pass despite his best efforts.

On this 4th down in the 4th quarter (with the game likely out of reach but on the Chiefs’ last “they could MAYBE pull this off” chance), Mahomes makes what is probably the best throw I’ve ever seen. The fact that he manages to drive the ball enough to get past the defender’s attempt at an interception (and again, hit his receiver in the face) is otherworldly.

It’s worth noting that the problems with drops weren’t limited to pure drops. The Chiefs’ receivers also lost on at least five “contested throw” situations that they could have won on, but didn’t. The interception in the 3rd quarter shown initially here was one example of when that altered the course of the game. The final pick of the game was similar, in that Kelce let Devin White bully him off the catch point.

Mahomes wasn’t perfect Sunday. He had an inaccurate down the field throw on the first drive to Mecole Hardman that could have been a big play (though, once again, he had defenders all around him and couldn’t step into the throw). He had a few happy feet snaps where he could’ve stayed in the pocket longer. So no, he wasn’t perfect, and if someone set out to try and find a handful of negative plays they could (just like any other game by any other QB in history).

That said, charting his game utilizing the same system I’ve always used demonstrates that Mahomes played at the same ridiculously high level he did throughout the 2018 season, if not a little bit better, despite being under duress constantly. Even with all the problems in pass protection, had he gotten a good performance out of his receivers we might be talking about this as one of the best quarterback performances we’ve seen in a Super Bowl.

The results Mahomes got from that elite level of play weren’t the same, but that wasn’t due to him. Rather, it was due to a combination of the worst protection I’ve ever charted in an NFL game AND his receivers dropping multiple big plays and touchdowns, as well as allowing themselves to get beat repeatedly in contested catch situations.

The gameplan the Chiefs called up relied on the line to at least sort of hold up (one could write an entire article about that, but I digress) and for the receivers to win their matchups. Neither happened, and the result was the worst offensive performance of Mahomes’ career.

And so the talking heads will talk. But once again, looking at every snap, the idea that Mahomes played at less than his usual high level just doesn’t hold up under scrutiny. That may not ease the sting for Chiefs fans, but knowledge is never a bad thing to have. Especially in an offseason that will likely be filled with a lot of bad takes. I look forward to fighting each and every one of them here!