I wish I’d gotten to see him play live, but I was privileged to watch every game he played as a Chief.
His first season and a half he was grossly underutilized. I remember screaming at the coaches (through my tv) to put him in. Apparently, they couldn’t hear me because he only started 12 games in 2008-09. In spite of that he still had 2046 YDS/Scrm and 9 total TDs good for 6.5 YDS/Tch. Not to mention the 1246 KR yards with a TD (a 97 yarder!) he piled up.
His first five seasons as a Chief (shown below for you youngsters who’ve only seen his highlights without any context) were a horror show (mostly) for the team and include what I consider (do you agree, Seth?) the worst season for any NFL team ever- the 2012 Chiefs season. I try not to think about that one. Here they are:
2008 Kansas City Chiefs 2-14-0
4th of 4
2009 Kansas City Chiefs 4-12-0
4th of 4
2010 Kansas City Chiefs* 10-6-0
1st of 4 (Lost Wild Card Round)
2011 Kansas City Chiefs 7-9-0
4th of 4 (JC got hurt and missed 99% of the season)
2012 Kansas City Chiefs 2-14-0
4th of 4
Last place in 4 out of his first 5 seasons. Wow. In spite of the whole situation, Charles was amazing. A joy to watch (occasional fumble issues aside) and a threat to break a long run at any time. Speed you could see and a gliding style that defied description. I was worried, though, that the injury in 2011 was just the beginning.
When Andy Reid arrived and everything immediately got better (but still not perfect) for KC, I forgot my worries. During JC’s last four seasons as a Chief, the team never had a losing record and made the playoffs 3 times (a WC loss and two Div. losses). But Jamaal, after fantastic seasons in 2013-14 (I’ll always fondly remember his 5 TD game against the Raiders in 2013) got hurt in 2015 and was never the same player. From 2015-18 (with KC(2X)/DEN/JAX) he played in 24 games with 5 starts and averaged a little over 250 total yards per season (an average of 4.05 YDS/Tch) with only 7 total TDs.
This was just my long-winded, possibly nonsensical, way of saying that he was amazing and injuries derailed a shoo-in HOF career (I’m not sure I made the HOF case but this is just a comment reply after all 😂).
I wish he had been a rookie in 2017 (instead of newly retired) with Patrick Mahomes and was now enjoying all of the success that has happened since then.
Still he got to play the best game in the world, at the highest possible level, and (when healthy) he dominated his competition. Hard to complain too much about that.
I am a keyboard jockey and hate using the iphone apps. It would be good to have a link to this article included in the email. Just FYI. having to go get the link made it a couple of extra steps to find it.
This is really interesting. I think the run game will eventually make a resurgence, when some analytics-oriented, defense-first team decides to basically jettison the punt and go for it on 4th down anytime they are beyond their own 40 yard line. Once that decision is made, the math of the run game shifts dramatically, because a 3rd and 6 is now a potential running play, and one of the big downsides of a run-first offense is mitigated.
But as long as teams punt on 4th down, running on 3rd down is pretty much always a bad idea, and by extension, running on 1st and 2nd exists only as a change-up, to keep the opposing defense honest. The stats don't lie - if even Jamaal Charles is a coin flip to run 3 yards or less vs 4 yards or more, it's hard to justify the position that teams need to commit to the run, given that the median result is "punt on 4th and 1".
I think of downs as a series of dice rolls, each of which requires you to stake your entire possession on it. Running is ensuring that you'll almost certainly roll a small gain, rarely roll a negative, and rarely roll a new set of downs. But the new set of downs is 10x more important than the gain/loss. We're more aware of that than most fans, because we so frequently see Mahomes convert 3rd and 10+. So who cares if 3rd down is a manageable distance or not? Take the risk of getting 0 on incompletion, throw it away to away getting negative yards, and get three (or four !) independent dice rolls, each of which can earn you a first on just one down.
I definitely agree that a team (perhaps taking the Eagles' MO over the last few years a step further) is going to start breaking the math on this. Though it'd have to be a team that is better at running overall and more consistently, OR perhaps a team that's better at breaking big plays (to make up for lost yardage in a way the run game often does not). And yep, even Charles being a coin flip is a major blow to the "you can run to win" argument.
I don't remember, but was Harbaugh a risk taker when he was at SF? I could see him trying to do something super crazy in the run game - he had MI run it 32 times in a row against Penn St last year as an example. I know he has Herbert now so it would be insane but he's definitely nutty enough to try anything.
It all makes sense now. A run game is important for the situations where you need a couple of yards because it's more likely than not to get you those, but it's bad for just generally gaining yards other than to keep the defense from always defending pass minus short yardage situations.
Overall, yes! Although it's worth noting it holds SIGNIFICANT value in forcing defenses to at least account for it with bodies in the box and with pass rushers having to slow their rush to honor run fits (as well as LBs pausing in their drops).
If you lose that legit threat, you allow defenses to "cheat" against you and make throwing a lot tougher.
Good breakdown. I see the run game as a tool, not a feature of a great offense. A tool that can 'reliably' gain you two yards or less when you need it or as a tool to get defenses into base and open up the passing game downfield with less secondary on the field.
A good offense can feature a great running back like Jamaal Charles on the Chiefs, Derrick Henry and the Titans teams with Tannehill and Vrabel, or even Lamar on the Ravens, but they will come up short if that's their most effective tool in the toolbox. It's a number game where the deck is stacked against you if there's 7+ (big) bodies in the box.
About a third of the way through reading this I thought "I hope he has a paragraph about Jamaal Charles at the end"... Thank you for writing about him; what an incredible running back.
Wildly off-topic: I'm super excited to see Gay in a different system. I'm hoping it's simplified because if he can cut down on the in-play mental errors, his ceiling immediately rises. Do you have any recommendations for information on how he'll be utilized? I can't seem to find any good Saints sources.
As much as I love JC25 and think he deserves to be in the HoF, he was never going to put the team on his shoulders and get us a championship. It pains me to say it but seeking out elite RBs seems like a waste of money and draft picks to me, especially when people like Pacheco, Damien Williams, and McKinnon are always out there. I think a case could be made that QBs who run too frequently give their teams a similarly low ceiling.
I agree, then disagree, and then agree again. So great comment by you. I'll just drop this nugget in. If Kareem Hunt had not had the off-field issues that rightly sent him packing, the Chiefs would have won the 2018 Super Bowl and Hunt would be considered the Marshall Faulk of this generation.
I totally agree. In that case, we would've had a perfect fit RB on a 3rd rounder salary that was one weapon too many for the Pats to deal with. So I'm not saying a good RB doesn't have their place on the team. I would just never pay for a guy like McCaffrey and I also view CEH as a wasted draft opportunity. Easy to say in hindsight but I think I'd be saying it even if he were a more integral piece of this offense.
That also brings up another point, though. Veach ended up revamping our defense and offensive line which were ultimately more important to winning Super Bowls than having more firepower on offense as proven by last year's struggles on the WR corps.
I think it is interesting this article comes out at the same off-season the Chargers sign a coach who is famous for running the ball!!!I Is the Chargers 'running style' going to be the outlier to this or have teams already moved past the running offensives of years ago?
Thanks for the interesting article, Seth. I can't count the number of times I've fantasized about Mahomes in shotgun and Jamal Charles motioning out of the backfield and setting up in trips with Kelcie and Tyreek.... then my alarm wakes me up
1. I would reflect that the pass almost could be used to set up the run. A first down completion of 6-9 makes the second down run attractive. And if it fails, there’s always a third down throw awaiting.
2. Makes the present controversy regarding lower salaries and retention of RBs more understandable. (All you RBs; this is a must read.)
3. Would enjoy seeing the same chart for passing. Would be quite a comparative eye-opener. 😳
Great read. Brings up the question of the chargers with new coach, will the be successful? The general talk of Harbaugh has been successful everywhere he’s been is wearing on me. Your thoughts?
Harbaugh's calling card is physicality. Yes, manifested in the running game, but he also has gotten a lot of great play out of his QB's. The games between Reid and Harbaugh will be slobber knockers.
"So next time someone says an opponent will hammer Spags’ defense into submission with the run game, just smile and know that the vast majority of the time that won’t be how it works out."
It's good advice to just smile, because I find that most fans do not like having their conventional wisdom challenged.
Great breakdown, Seth! I miss watching JC25 run (so smooth) and agree he should be in the HOF.
I'll repeat it forever... he's one of the greatest players I've ever seen live. It's tragic that injuries stole so many years form him.
I wish I’d gotten to see him play live, but I was privileged to watch every game he played as a Chief.
His first season and a half he was grossly underutilized. I remember screaming at the coaches (through my tv) to put him in. Apparently, they couldn’t hear me because he only started 12 games in 2008-09. In spite of that he still had 2046 YDS/Scrm and 9 total TDs good for 6.5 YDS/Tch. Not to mention the 1246 KR yards with a TD (a 97 yarder!) he piled up.
His first five seasons as a Chief (shown below for you youngsters who’ve only seen his highlights without any context) were a horror show (mostly) for the team and include what I consider (do you agree, Seth?) the worst season for any NFL team ever- the 2012 Chiefs season. I try not to think about that one. Here they are:
2008 Kansas City Chiefs 2-14-0
4th of 4
2009 Kansas City Chiefs 4-12-0
4th of 4
2010 Kansas City Chiefs* 10-6-0
1st of 4 (Lost Wild Card Round)
2011 Kansas City Chiefs 7-9-0
4th of 4 (JC got hurt and missed 99% of the season)
2012 Kansas City Chiefs 2-14-0
4th of 4
Last place in 4 out of his first 5 seasons. Wow. In spite of the whole situation, Charles was amazing. A joy to watch (occasional fumble issues aside) and a threat to break a long run at any time. Speed you could see and a gliding style that defied description. I was worried, though, that the injury in 2011 was just the beginning.
When Andy Reid arrived and everything immediately got better (but still not perfect) for KC, I forgot my worries. During JC’s last four seasons as a Chief, the team never had a losing record and made the playoffs 3 times (a WC loss and two Div. losses). But Jamaal, after fantastic seasons in 2013-14 (I’ll always fondly remember his 5 TD game against the Raiders in 2013) got hurt in 2015 and was never the same player. From 2015-18 (with KC(2X)/DEN/JAX) he played in 24 games with 5 starts and averaged a little over 250 total yards per season (an average of 4.05 YDS/Tch) with only 7 total TDs.
This was just my long-winded, possibly nonsensical, way of saying that he was amazing and injuries derailed a shoo-in HOF career (I’m not sure I made the HOF case but this is just a comment reply after all 😂).
I wish he had been a rookie in 2017 (instead of newly retired) with Patrick Mahomes and was now enjoying all of the success that has happened since then.
Still he got to play the best game in the world, at the highest possible level, and (when healthy) he dominated his competition. Hard to complain too much about that.
Ummmmm. The end?
I am a keyboard jockey and hate using the iphone apps. It would be good to have a link to this article included in the email. Just FYI. having to go get the link made it a couple of extra steps to find it.
Appreciate the suggestion! I'll ponder what that may look like.
I use Gmail and click through the title of the article every time I get an email.
I totally should've known that was an option...
Great stuff, Seth. A super explanation of the meaning and value behind Tej's analysis.
Hey, thanks! It was a really interesting finding by him.
This is really interesting. I think the run game will eventually make a resurgence, when some analytics-oriented, defense-first team decides to basically jettison the punt and go for it on 4th down anytime they are beyond their own 40 yard line. Once that decision is made, the math of the run game shifts dramatically, because a 3rd and 6 is now a potential running play, and one of the big downsides of a run-first offense is mitigated.
But as long as teams punt on 4th down, running on 3rd down is pretty much always a bad idea, and by extension, running on 1st and 2nd exists only as a change-up, to keep the opposing defense honest. The stats don't lie - if even Jamaal Charles is a coin flip to run 3 yards or less vs 4 yards or more, it's hard to justify the position that teams need to commit to the run, given that the median result is "punt on 4th and 1".
I think of downs as a series of dice rolls, each of which requires you to stake your entire possession on it. Running is ensuring that you'll almost certainly roll a small gain, rarely roll a negative, and rarely roll a new set of downs. But the new set of downs is 10x more important than the gain/loss. We're more aware of that than most fans, because we so frequently see Mahomes convert 3rd and 10+. So who cares if 3rd down is a manageable distance or not? Take the risk of getting 0 on incompletion, throw it away to away getting negative yards, and get three (or four !) independent dice rolls, each of which can earn you a first on just one down.
I definitely agree that a team (perhaps taking the Eagles' MO over the last few years a step further) is going to start breaking the math on this. Though it'd have to be a team that is better at running overall and more consistently, OR perhaps a team that's better at breaking big plays (to make up for lost yardage in a way the run game often does not). And yep, even Charles being a coin flip is a major blow to the "you can run to win" argument.
I don't remember, but was Harbaugh a risk taker when he was at SF? I could see him trying to do something super crazy in the run game - he had MI run it 32 times in a row against Penn St last year as an example. I know he has Herbert now so it would be insane but he's definitely nutty enough to try anything.
It all makes sense now. A run game is important for the situations where you need a couple of yards because it's more likely than not to get you those, but it's bad for just generally gaining yards other than to keep the defense from always defending pass minus short yardage situations.
Overall, yes! Although it's worth noting it holds SIGNIFICANT value in forcing defenses to at least account for it with bodies in the box and with pass rushers having to slow their rush to honor run fits (as well as LBs pausing in their drops).
If you lose that legit threat, you allow defenses to "cheat" against you and make throwing a lot tougher.
Good breakdown. I see the run game as a tool, not a feature of a great offense. A tool that can 'reliably' gain you two yards or less when you need it or as a tool to get defenses into base and open up the passing game downfield with less secondary on the field.
A good offense can feature a great running back like Jamaal Charles on the Chiefs, Derrick Henry and the Titans teams with Tannehill and Vrabel, or even Lamar on the Ravens, but they will come up short if that's their most effective tool in the toolbox. It's a number game where the deck is stacked against you if there's 7+ (big) bodies in the box.
Right, it's a very valuable tool, but not the primary method of moving the ball for offenses.
About a third of the way through reading this I thought "I hope he has a paragraph about Jamaal Charles at the end"... Thank you for writing about him; what an incredible running back.
hahaha I'm nothing if not consistent.
I feel bad for doubting you. I should know better.
Wildly off-topic: I'm super excited to see Gay in a different system. I'm hoping it's simplified because if he can cut down on the in-play mental errors, his ceiling immediately rises. Do you have any recommendations for information on how he'll be utilized? I can't seem to find any good Saints sources.
I don't know many in the Saints beat, I'm so sorry!
As much as I love JC25 and think he deserves to be in the HoF, he was never going to put the team on his shoulders and get us a championship. It pains me to say it but seeking out elite RBs seems like a waste of money and draft picks to me, especially when people like Pacheco, Damien Williams, and McKinnon are always out there. I think a case could be made that QBs who run too frequently give their teams a similarly low ceiling.
I agree, then disagree, and then agree again. So great comment by you. I'll just drop this nugget in. If Kareem Hunt had not had the off-field issues that rightly sent him packing, the Chiefs would have won the 2018 Super Bowl and Hunt would be considered the Marshall Faulk of this generation.
I totally agree. In that case, we would've had a perfect fit RB on a 3rd rounder salary that was one weapon too many for the Pats to deal with. So I'm not saying a good RB doesn't have their place on the team. I would just never pay for a guy like McCaffrey and I also view CEH as a wasted draft opportunity. Easy to say in hindsight but I think I'd be saying it even if he were a more integral piece of this offense.
That also brings up another point, though. Veach ended up revamping our defense and offensive line which were ultimately more important to winning Super Bowls than having more firepower on offense as proven by last year's struggles on the WR corps.
There's really no modern instance of a RB carrying a team to a SB, so I very much agree that he couldn't have done it (as great as he was!).
I think it is interesting this article comes out at the same off-season the Chargers sign a coach who is famous for running the ball!!!I Is the Chargers 'running style' going to be the outlier to this or have teams already moved past the running offensives of years ago?
Thanks for the interesting article, Seth. I can't count the number of times I've fantasized about Mahomes in shotgun and Jamal Charles motioning out of the backfield and setting up in trips with Kelcie and Tyreek.... then my alarm wakes me up
Great insight. Three thoughts…
1. I would reflect that the pass almost could be used to set up the run. A first down completion of 6-9 makes the second down run attractive. And if it fails, there’s always a third down throw awaiting.
2. Makes the present controversy regarding lower salaries and retention of RBs more understandable. (All you RBs; this is a must read.)
3. Would enjoy seeing the same chart for passing. Would be quite a comparative eye-opener. 😳
I would love to see the distribution charted. Also, I wonder what the mean and median were (we know the mode is 2 yards).
Great read. Brings up the question of the chargers with new coach, will the be successful? The general talk of Harbaugh has been successful everywhere he’s been is wearing on me. Your thoughts?
Harbaugh's calling card is physicality. Yes, manifested in the running game, but he also has gotten a lot of great play out of his QB's. The games between Reid and Harbaugh will be slobber knockers.
I feel like this is an attack on Marty ball 30 years too late.
In all seriousness, seeing these spreads from passing plays would be important in demonstrating the point.
And your context matters statement cannot be emphasized enough.
"So next time someone says an opponent will hammer Spags’ defense into submission with the run game, just smile and know that the vast majority of the time that won’t be how it works out."
It's good advice to just smile, because I find that most fans do not like having their conventional wisdom challenged.
Indeed, I've had a number of people get quite mad at me for challenging this idea.