It's hard not to just smile while reading this. Aside from one year of Montana, Trent Green and part of Alex's career the Chiefs QB was more often than not a liability that needed to be overcome by other parts of the team (defense, RB, OL). Now we have that GOAT playing the position and it's amazing to see how many issues he can cover up. ST mistake after mistake - he can overcome. Defensive issues, he will nullify those. If Veach's draft this year is even a fraction as good as it was last year then Mahomes will benefit from the rest of the team rather than be forced to carry the team on his shoulders. That'll be a wonderful thing to see.
The most interesting this to me is how well Jimmy G looked on a lot of these charts... I’m guessing mainly because of scheme but people really don’t give him the credit he deserves imo.
But just wait until defensive coaches react now that they have tape on him. He won't be able to get away with making risky throws, he just gets lucky. Let's give it a decade before we crown him the GOAT.
This is the article that needs to be shown to others. What great work. Not only does this show mahomes greatness but I love looking at the other quarterbacks and where they fit in the madness
Now about that bet with the ghost peppers! Need to set up some Bengals and Bills analysts and then lay down the facts! Planning on visit to camp again. Keep us posted on your plans!
What I love about that first graph is that it demonstrates something incredible: Mahomes is, to "great" quarterbacks, what "great" quarterbacks are to average ones. His margin of victory is that large. It is not a close competition. He is ~50% better than they are when the snaps are meaningful.
It's hard to explain that to people who don't watch every single snap from Mahomes on a weekly basis (or do meaningful statistical analysis, instead of just using old stats to fit their preconceived narratives). Mahomes is as close to a "sure thing" as there's ever been in NFL history. Typically, a player regresses to the mean after an all-time great season. That's why the "Madden curse" exists. Mahomes broke the Madden curse. Twice.
If I wrote a book about Mahomes' career before it happened, people who read my speculative fiction would have said, "you clearly don't understand the NFL. This is totally unrealistic. Every time there's a big spot he comes up with a big play! It doesn't work that way! Sometimes the defense wins! You only have like 5 games in his entire career when the defense won, and two of them he was injured, and a third was a 54-51 shootout on MNF! That never happens!"
Mahomes is absurd to such a degree that it's taken 5 years for even professional NFL experts to wrap their heads around it, and just acknowledge the obvious: the greatest football player ever to play the game is a Kansas City Chief. And we're not even sure if he's reached his prime yet!
I have to wonder, could the reason be that his production is closer to normal (relatively speaking) when winning and is so absurdly high when losing, is because Patrick's attention slips a little? Like he's an adrenaline junky type who is almost 'distracted' by the mundane and doesn't focus like he does when the bullets are flying and his back is against the wall. Its crazy / doesn't make sense how much better he is in those situations - no matter; we are soooooo blessed to have him....
My more serious takeaway from these is that Mahomes is not primarily spectacular. He is primarily brutally efficient. That is the meat and potatoes. His spectacular plays are the gravy.
Patrick Mahomes is what Brett Favre would have been if you subtracted the worst 10% of his plays.
The Outlier Part 2: Patrick Mahomes continues to break charts
It's hard not to just smile while reading this. Aside from one year of Montana, Trent Green and part of Alex's career the Chiefs QB was more often than not a liability that needed to be overcome by other parts of the team (defense, RB, OL). Now we have that GOAT playing the position and it's amazing to see how many issues he can cover up. ST mistake after mistake - he can overcome. Defensive issues, he will nullify those. If Veach's draft this year is even a fraction as good as it was last year then Mahomes will benefit from the rest of the team rather than be forced to carry the team on his shoulders. That'll be a wonderful thing to see.
My goodness, loved this read.
The most interesting this to me is how well Jimmy G looked on a lot of these charts... I’m guessing mainly because of scheme but people really don’t give him the credit he deserves imo.
Epic compilation. Going to pass this around to recommend subscriptions to friends. Seth! Keep it coming and thanks. Have a great holiday weekend
But just wait until defensive coaches react now that they have tape on him. He won't be able to get away with making risky throws, he just gets lucky. Let's give it a decade before we crown him the GOAT.
Hogwash.
This is the article that needs to be shown to others. What great work. Not only does this show mahomes greatness but I love looking at the other quarterbacks and where they fit in the madness
Now about that bet with the ghost peppers! Need to set up some Bengals and Bills analysts and then lay down the facts! Planning on visit to camp again. Keep us posted on your plans!
What I love about that first graph is that it demonstrates something incredible: Mahomes is, to "great" quarterbacks, what "great" quarterbacks are to average ones. His margin of victory is that large. It is not a close competition. He is ~50% better than they are when the snaps are meaningful.
It's hard to explain that to people who don't watch every single snap from Mahomes on a weekly basis (or do meaningful statistical analysis, instead of just using old stats to fit their preconceived narratives). Mahomes is as close to a "sure thing" as there's ever been in NFL history. Typically, a player regresses to the mean after an all-time great season. That's why the "Madden curse" exists. Mahomes broke the Madden curse. Twice.
If I wrote a book about Mahomes' career before it happened, people who read my speculative fiction would have said, "you clearly don't understand the NFL. This is totally unrealistic. Every time there's a big spot he comes up with a big play! It doesn't work that way! Sometimes the defense wins! You only have like 5 games in his entire career when the defense won, and two of them he was injured, and a third was a 54-51 shootout on MNF! That never happens!"
Mahomes is absurd to such a degree that it's taken 5 years for even professional NFL experts to wrap their heads around it, and just acknowledge the obvious: the greatest football player ever to play the game is a Kansas City Chief. And we're not even sure if he's reached his prime yet!
I have to wonder, could the reason be that his production is closer to normal (relatively speaking) when winning and is so absurdly high when losing, is because Patrick's attention slips a little? Like he's an adrenaline junky type who is almost 'distracted' by the mundane and doesn't focus like he does when the bullets are flying and his back is against the wall. Its crazy / doesn't make sense how much better he is in those situations - no matter; we are soooooo blessed to have him....
🐐
Somebody pinch me.
My first take away is that Zach Wilson is the Patrick Mahomes of bad quarterbacks.
My more serious takeaway from these is that Mahomes is not primarily spectacular. He is primarily brutally efficient. That is the meat and potatoes. His spectacular plays are the gravy.
Patrick Mahomes is what Brett Favre would have been if you subtracted the worst 10% of his plays.
Just absurd. And Chiefs nation is blessed to enjoy it!
He might not be the GOAT yet, but he's hands down the best QB we've ever seen play the position.
My favorite part of the article was "Maybe blitz him? LOLOLOLOL Don't blitz Mahomes."
My QB