It's hard not to just smile while reading this. Aside from one year of Montana, Trent Green and part of Alex's career the Chiefs QB was more often than not a liability that needed to be overcome by other parts of the team (defense, RB, OL). Now we have that GOAT playing the position and it's amazing to see how many issues he can cover up. ST mistake after mistake - he can overcome. Defensive issues, he will nullify those. If Veach's draft this year is even a fraction as good as it was last year then Mahomes will benefit from the rest of the team rather than be forced to carry the team on his shoulders. That'll be a wonderful thing to see.
All I can do is shake my head. I still pinch myself that after almost 50 years of fandom, most of that spent waiting for someone--ANYONE--to be a legtimate QB, my team ended up with the one who might be the greatest to ever play when it's all said and done.
The most interesting this to me is how well Jimmy G looked on a lot of these charts... I’m guessing mainly because of scheme but people really don’t give him the credit he deserves imo.
Except the 49ers dropped "Mr Irrelevant" Brock Purdy into the exact same situation as a rookie, and he excelled even more than Jimmy G did. Clearly the team environment is a major factor. And when you actually watch Jimmy G play, it's clear - he is a system QB.
Perhaps Purdy is just good as well. Very small sample size.
A bigger sample size is this one:
Shanahan when Jimmy G starts: 38-17 (.691)
Shanahan when anyone else starts: 14-29 (.326)
The 2nd number includes Purdy's 5-0. He did great, but let us also not forget that none of those games were against teams with a winning record (combined winning percentage .407) and that the defense held opponents to 17.4 points per game and forced 12 turnovers in 5 games.
Some of these games are the same seasons as Jimmy G. Because health is Jimmy G's issue, he has only started 56% of games when he has been on the team. 61% not counting the year he was traded in the middle. We will see whether Purdy keeps it up or not. In the meantime, the difference over larger numbers is Garappolo, not Shanahan.
Shanahan is the most overrated offensive coach in the 50 years I have watched football. His good years he had great defenses, and has had now two D coordinators move on to head coaching positions. I have already bet the under on them this year (at 11.5) and feel like it is easy money.
This is some good analysis, but I think, watching Jimmy G play, he is at an Alex Smith level, and that is his ceiling. He can win with a great team surrounding him and a great coaching staff, and his floor might be fairly high, but he will never be able to carry a team to victory, and his mid-tier, ~$25M contract with the Raiders suggests that others who watch him closely came to the same conclusion.
You might be right that the 49ers will regress in his absence, assuming Trey Lance doesn't take a big step forward, but I don't think Jimmy G will change the Raiders much, because his ceiling is basically Derek Carr: in the discussion for the 10th best QB, but no one really believes he's as good as the other 9 guys above him.
Appreciate it, share as much as you want! I unlocked it for a reason, I love the idea of every Chiefs fan having access to this info the next time someone wants to say "but Burrow" or "but Allen," etc.
But just wait until defensive coaches react now that they have tape on him. He won't be able to get away with making risky throws, he just gets lucky. Let's give it a decade before we crown him the GOAT.
This is the article that needs to be shown to others. What great work. Not only does this show mahomes greatness but I love looking at the other quarterbacks and where they fit in the madness
Now about that bet with the ghost peppers! Need to set up some Bengals and Bills analysts and then lay down the facts! Planning on visit to camp again. Keep us posted on your plans!
What I love about that first graph is that it demonstrates something incredible: Mahomes is, to "great" quarterbacks, what "great" quarterbacks are to average ones. His margin of victory is that large. It is not a close competition. He is ~50% better than they are when the snaps are meaningful.
It's hard to explain that to people who don't watch every single snap from Mahomes on a weekly basis (or do meaningful statistical analysis, instead of just using old stats to fit their preconceived narratives). Mahomes is as close to a "sure thing" as there's ever been in NFL history. Typically, a player regresses to the mean after an all-time great season. That's why the "Madden curse" exists. Mahomes broke the Madden curse. Twice.
If I wrote a book about Mahomes' career before it happened, people who read my speculative fiction would have said, "you clearly don't understand the NFL. This is totally unrealistic. Every time there's a big spot he comes up with a big play! It doesn't work that way! Sometimes the defense wins! You only have like 5 games in his entire career when the defense won, and two of them he was injured, and a third was a 54-51 shootout on MNF! That never happens!"
Mahomes is absurd to such a degree that it's taken 5 years for even professional NFL experts to wrap their heads around it, and just acknowledge the obvious: the greatest football player ever to play the game is a Kansas City Chief. And we're not even sure if he's reached his prime yet!
I have to wonder, could the reason be that his production is closer to normal (relatively speaking) when winning and is so absurdly high when losing, is because Patrick's attention slips a little? Like he's an adrenaline junky type who is almost 'distracted' by the mundane and doesn't focus like he does when the bullets are flying and his back is against the wall. Its crazy / doesn't make sense how much better he is in those situations - no matter; we are soooooo blessed to have him....
I've wondered the same thing at times. When losing, Mahomes often turns into Batman (thanks Mitch!) and kicks it up another notch. Something that should be heavily factored into winning though, Coach Reid has been doing this a long time and is very comfortable with a small lead if it means he can bleed out the clock. Our offense as a whole gets much more conservative when we're winning. This can be frustrating as a fan, but it has tended to work out in our favor at a very high rate.
Great point about dialing back the aggressiveness from Andy. I wish he'd take the Jimmy Johnson approach to these things and crush teams - Jimmy being at Miami when Flutie brought BC back and then beat them with that hail mary taught him to be ruthless when winning and don't give the other team any hope for a comeback.
I think it's more like the secret sauce for Mahomes' greatness is willingness to take risks that other QBs are too cautious to contemplate except in the 4th quarter, when they have no choice. The "throws beyond the sticks on 3rd and 4th down" metric is what underlined that feature for me. Most QBs throw about the same distance on 3rd and 5 as they do on 3rd and 20, because they're trying not to screw things up worse. Mahomes, on the other hand, understands that the winning strategy, especially when you're behind the sticks, is to take *lots of smart risks*, and the cumulative result will be some successes and some failures, but if you dare greatly every drive, you win more than you lose. And that's how you make up big deficits in the 2nd quarter, instead of the 4th. Mahomes treats 3rd and 4th down the way other QBs treat the 4th quarter with a deficit.
I don't think so - it comes from the play calling. He doesn't get the chance to be absurd when Andy is (correctly, usually) calling more conservative plays while KC is tied or ahead. When it's clear that the only way to win is to take risks, Patrick shines even brighter.
My more serious takeaway from these is that Mahomes is not primarily spectacular. He is primarily brutally efficient. That is the meat and potatoes. His spectacular plays are the gravy.
Patrick Mahomes is what Brett Favre would have been if you subtracted the worst 10% of his plays.
Seth has called him a cross between Brett Favre and Alex Smith on Time's Ours and I can't get that out of my head. My comp has always been that he's like Favre if Favre was allowed to play Best Ball and get two tries at every throw to cut down the turnovers.
That's it. There are two GOAT title belts - the greatest "regular season" QB (which is Peyton Manning) and the greatest postseason QB (which is Brady). So far, Mahomes is on track to win both belts and become the undisputed GOAT. He has to stay healthy to pull it off. But he's already on QB Mount Rushmore, along with Brady, Manning, and Montana, and that's pretty amazing for a guy who has only been in the league 6 seasons, and only started 5. But at his current pace, and his current learning curve, if he stays a starter for 20 years, he'll blow them all away.
It's hard not to just smile while reading this. Aside from one year of Montana, Trent Green and part of Alex's career the Chiefs QB was more often than not a liability that needed to be overcome by other parts of the team (defense, RB, OL). Now we have that GOAT playing the position and it's amazing to see how many issues he can cover up. ST mistake after mistake - he can overcome. Defensive issues, he will nullify those. If Veach's draft this year is even a fraction as good as it was last year then Mahomes will benefit from the rest of the team rather than be forced to carry the team on his shoulders. That'll be a wonderful thing to see.
All I can do is shake my head. I still pinch myself that after almost 50 years of fandom, most of that spent waiting for someone--ANYONE--to be a legtimate QB, my team ended up with the one who might be the greatest to ever play when it's all said and done.
My goodness, loved this read.
The most interesting this to me is how well Jimmy G looked on a lot of these charts... I’m guessing mainly because of scheme but people really don’t give him the credit he deserves imo.
Except the 49ers dropped "Mr Irrelevant" Brock Purdy into the exact same situation as a rookie, and he excelled even more than Jimmy G did. Clearly the team environment is a major factor. And when you actually watch Jimmy G play, it's clear - he is a system QB.
Great point, I agree
Says a lot about Shanahan.
Perhaps Purdy is just good as well. Very small sample size.
A bigger sample size is this one:
Shanahan when Jimmy G starts: 38-17 (.691)
Shanahan when anyone else starts: 14-29 (.326)
The 2nd number includes Purdy's 5-0. He did great, but let us also not forget that none of those games were against teams with a winning record (combined winning percentage .407) and that the defense held opponents to 17.4 points per game and forced 12 turnovers in 5 games.
Some of these games are the same seasons as Jimmy G. Because health is Jimmy G's issue, he has only started 56% of games when he has been on the team. 61% not counting the year he was traded in the middle. We will see whether Purdy keeps it up or not. In the meantime, the difference over larger numbers is Garappolo, not Shanahan.
Shanahan is the most overrated offensive coach in the 50 years I have watched football. His good years he had great defenses, and has had now two D coordinators move on to head coaching positions. I have already bet the under on them this year (at 11.5) and feel like it is easy money.
This is some good analysis, but I think, watching Jimmy G play, he is at an Alex Smith level, and that is his ceiling. He can win with a great team surrounding him and a great coaching staff, and his floor might be fairly high, but he will never be able to carry a team to victory, and his mid-tier, ~$25M contract with the Raiders suggests that others who watch him closely came to the same conclusion.
You might be right that the 49ers will regress in his absence, assuming Trey Lance doesn't take a big step forward, but I don't think Jimmy G will change the Raiders much, because his ceiling is basically Derek Carr: in the discussion for the 10th best QB, but no one really believes he's as good as the other 9 guys above him.
Epic compilation. Going to pass this around to recommend subscriptions to friends. Seth! Keep it coming and thanks. Have a great holiday weekend
Appreciate it, share as much as you want! I unlocked it for a reason, I love the idea of every Chiefs fan having access to this info the next time someone wants to say "but Burrow" or "but Allen," etc.
But just wait until defensive coaches react now that they have tape on him. He won't be able to get away with making risky throws, he just gets lucky. Let's give it a decade before we crown him the GOAT.
Hogwash.
hahahaha it's incredible how often that argument has been proven wrong!
just wait, soon enough we'll start hearing that AI will turn the tide....
Is that Artificial Interceptions? 😉
This is the article that needs to be shown to others. What great work. Not only does this show mahomes greatness but I love looking at the other quarterbacks and where they fit in the madness
Exactly. We need to get this article in Nick Wright's hands so he can amplify it.
Now about that bet with the ghost peppers! Need to set up some Bengals and Bills analysts and then lay down the facts! Planning on visit to camp again. Keep us posted on your plans!
What I love about that first graph is that it demonstrates something incredible: Mahomes is, to "great" quarterbacks, what "great" quarterbacks are to average ones. His margin of victory is that large. It is not a close competition. He is ~50% better than they are when the snaps are meaningful.
It's hard to explain that to people who don't watch every single snap from Mahomes on a weekly basis (or do meaningful statistical analysis, instead of just using old stats to fit their preconceived narratives). Mahomes is as close to a "sure thing" as there's ever been in NFL history. Typically, a player regresses to the mean after an all-time great season. That's why the "Madden curse" exists. Mahomes broke the Madden curse. Twice.
If I wrote a book about Mahomes' career before it happened, people who read my speculative fiction would have said, "you clearly don't understand the NFL. This is totally unrealistic. Every time there's a big spot he comes up with a big play! It doesn't work that way! Sometimes the defense wins! You only have like 5 games in his entire career when the defense won, and two of them he was injured, and a third was a 54-51 shootout on MNF! That never happens!"
Mahomes is absurd to such a degree that it's taken 5 years for even professional NFL experts to wrap their heads around it, and just acknowledge the obvious: the greatest football player ever to play the game is a Kansas City Chief. And we're not even sure if he's reached his prime yet!
Stop it! That last sentence gave me chills.
I have to wonder, could the reason be that his production is closer to normal (relatively speaking) when winning and is so absurdly high when losing, is because Patrick's attention slips a little? Like he's an adrenaline junky type who is almost 'distracted' by the mundane and doesn't focus like he does when the bullets are flying and his back is against the wall. Its crazy / doesn't make sense how much better he is in those situations - no matter; we are soooooo blessed to have him....
I've wondered the same thing at times. When losing, Mahomes often turns into Batman (thanks Mitch!) and kicks it up another notch. Something that should be heavily factored into winning though, Coach Reid has been doing this a long time and is very comfortable with a small lead if it means he can bleed out the clock. Our offense as a whole gets much more conservative when we're winning. This can be frustrating as a fan, but it has tended to work out in our favor at a very high rate.
Great point about dialing back the aggressiveness from Andy. I wish he'd take the Jimmy Johnson approach to these things and crush teams - Jimmy being at Miami when Flutie brought BC back and then beat them with that hail mary taught him to be ruthless when winning and don't give the other team any hope for a comeback.
I think it's more like the secret sauce for Mahomes' greatness is willingness to take risks that other QBs are too cautious to contemplate except in the 4th quarter, when they have no choice. The "throws beyond the sticks on 3rd and 4th down" metric is what underlined that feature for me. Most QBs throw about the same distance on 3rd and 5 as they do on 3rd and 20, because they're trying not to screw things up worse. Mahomes, on the other hand, understands that the winning strategy, especially when you're behind the sticks, is to take *lots of smart risks*, and the cumulative result will be some successes and some failures, but if you dare greatly every drive, you win more than you lose. And that's how you make up big deficits in the 2nd quarter, instead of the 4th. Mahomes treats 3rd and 4th down the way other QBs treat the 4th quarter with a deficit.
I don't think so - it comes from the play calling. He doesn't get the chance to be absurd when Andy is (correctly, usually) calling more conservative plays while KC is tied or ahead. When it's clear that the only way to win is to take risks, Patrick shines even brighter.
🐐
Somebody pinch me.
My first take away is that Zach Wilson is the Patrick Mahomes of bad quarterbacks.
LOL - ouch
You sir, are underselling what Sam Darnold brings to the table.
Are you slighting Tyler Palko?
My more serious takeaway from these is that Mahomes is not primarily spectacular. He is primarily brutally efficient. That is the meat and potatoes. His spectacular plays are the gravy.
Patrick Mahomes is what Brett Favre would have been if you subtracted the worst 10% of his plays.
Seth has called him a cross between Brett Favre and Alex Smith on Time's Ours and I can't get that out of my head. My comp has always been that he's like Favre if Favre was allowed to play Best Ball and get two tries at every throw to cut down the turnovers.
Just absurd. And Chiefs nation is blessed to enjoy it!
He might not be the GOAT yet, but he's hands down the best QB we've ever seen play the position.
That's it. There are two GOAT title belts - the greatest "regular season" QB (which is Peyton Manning) and the greatest postseason QB (which is Brady). So far, Mahomes is on track to win both belts and become the undisputed GOAT. He has to stay healthy to pull it off. But he's already on QB Mount Rushmore, along with Brady, Manning, and Montana, and that's pretty amazing for a guy who has only been in the league 6 seasons, and only started 5. But at his current pace, and his current learning curve, if he stays a starter for 20 years, he'll blow them all away.
My favorite part of the article was "Maybe blitz him? LOLOLOLOL Don't blitz Mahomes."
My QB
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