The Outlier Part 2: Patrick Mahomes continues to break charts

I've gathered a collection of the best charts the Chiefs' QB has ruined as he dominates the NFL in a hilariously visual way.

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“Patrick Mahomes is breaking statistical analysis.”

I wrote those words almost two full years ago, when I wrote about how Mahomes has managed to dominate the league statistically in a way that causes him to break almost every single chart he’s a part of.

Since that time, one would expect that Mahomes’ statistical absurdity would cease, or at least slow down. After all, the NFL is designed to humble everyone and create parity. Multiple very talented quarterbacks have exploded onto the scene who should narrow the gap between Mahomes and the field. Defenses are gunning for the best way to slow down the Chiefs. He lost Tyreek Hill in a trade prior to the 2022 season.

All of these things should have led to a return to relative normalcy for Mahomes. But it hasn’t. Not even close. It seems like every other week or so a new chart shows up with Mahomes being placed so far above the field (and other elite quarterbacks) that he basically breaks the scale. We whistle in amazement and retweet/restack, and then move on.

Today, I’m going to do my best to put all the best of those charts in one place, and explain briefly what each of them mean in practice. The end point is that Patrick Mahomes remains, in a league full of terrific quarterbacks, an outlier. His distance from the field in meaningful measures of quarterback play should not ever be taken for granted, especially doing so over the course of 5 full years. In short; We’ve never seen anyone like this. And that’s what makes him The Outlier.

Let’s get started.

(NOTE- “EPA” is “Expected Points Added,” basically a way of measuring how well the ball was moved in a way that made it more likely to score)

(SECOND NOTE- Shout out to Sumer Sports and Tej Seth for a lot of these numbers, as well as Ben Baldwin and everyone else who has worked so hard to get more advanced numbers publicly available)

Moving the ball in non-garbage time

This is one of the most “basic” charts we’ll have here, just to get us started. What this chart does is take all quarterbacks who have seen significant snaps over the last 5 years and looks at their EPA per play (how well they’ve moved the ball in a way that makes it more likely that the team scores) as well as completion percentage above expected.

The trick with this chart? It throws away garbage time by only including snaps where the game has a win probability of 20-80 percent (meaning one team isn’t nearly certain to win). In other words; What quarterback does the best work when it’s a “normal” situation and not garbage time?

The answer? Mahomes, by a country mile. There’s more separation between Mahomes' EPA per play and the closest QB (Rodgers) than there is between Rodgers and… well, basically a couple dozen quarterbacks. There’s him, then a gap, then everyone else.

Let’s start getting more situational.

Early downs vs late downs

This chart splits EPA per play on early downs (1st and 2nd) vs late downs (3rd and 4th). You’ll note that some quarterbacks are excellent on early downs but are below average on late downs. One thing to know is that on early downs, scheme and a strong run game can hide you a bit more (see Tannehill, Ryan, who does a terrific job executing the offense but falters on later downs a bit). On later downs, it’s a more obvious passing situation and tougher to perform.

In case you missed it, Mahomes is WAY in the top right. He’s not just the best on early downs, he’s so much better on late downs that he basically breaks the scale. No one else even reaches 0.2 EPA/play. He’s above 0.4. That’s twice as high for non-math-majors like myself.

Total expected points added

This is measuring “total EPA,” which is basically the same thing (expected points added) but just looking at the total amount. By doing so, you can see just how many more “expected points” (by moving the ball effectively) Mahomes has added than anyone else over the last 5 years.

Good vs bad defenses

This chart is terrific, because it focuses on what QB’s do against top-half defenses (the vertical chart) vs what they do against bottom-half defenses. In other words, are you feasting against bad defenses while struggling (or being average at best) against good defenses (cough cough Phil Rivers and Jimmy Garoppolo cough)?

Mahomes, interestingly enough, isn’t the very best against bad defenses (a measly 3rd). But look what happens when he faces good defenses. His performance barely drops against top-tier opponents, while every other QB sees a significantly more sizeable decrease in efficiency.

In other words, facing great defenses barely slows Mahomes down, and he’s unique in that way.

With a lead vs trailing

This chart separates situations into tied/leading vs trailing. When his team is tied or leading, Mahomes trails only Brees over the last 5 years in EPA per play. But look what happens when the Chiefs are trailing. His EPA per play goes up and becomes even better than it is when leading or tied.

In other words, Mahomes is BETTER when trailing, when passing is harder as teams know you have to throw to catch up.

Win probability efficiency

This chart shows something similar, only utilizing win probability rather than the score itself. Note how Mahomes is the best when his team is expected to win… but again EVEN BETTER when his team is expected to lose. It’s worth noting this is “per dropback” rather than “per play” so it’s not as though he’s being carried by the run game, etc.

When his team is trailing, no one is close to Mahomes in terms of efficiency.

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Win probability in the playoffs

What about in the playoffs? This chart is built a little differently but measures a similar concept as the one above, just utilizing “win probability added” (which is still a measurement of how well the QB moves the ball) and accounting for how likely the team is to win.

Look at Mahomes’ line. Notice how it’s far above everyone else’s when you’re from zero percent to 50% of win probability pre-play (the horizontal axis)? What that means is that when his team is trailing in the playoffs, Mahomes adds way, way more win probability (ie moves the ball better) than any of the other QB’s on this list. And those QB’s are Brady, Manning, Rodgers, and Brees.

In other words, in the playoffs, it’s a demonstrable fact that Mahomes has been much, much, much better when trailing (and better overall) than any of the QB’s in the last 30 years that someone might argue is the GOAT. Including the GOAT.

Speaking of being more clutch than anyone, ever.

Game-winning scenarios

Is the game on the line? Then your best bet is Mahomes… then a massive, massive, massive gap. In situations where we’re looking at a “game-winning drive” (from a tie score to losing by 8 with 4 minutes or less in the game), Mahomes’ EPA per play is over 0.5, an absurd number that laps even his record-breaking “normal.”

Name whatever QB you want, and he’s literally not half as good as Mahomes in those situations.

Man vs zone

This is only for 2022, but it’s hilarious. Do you want to play man coverage or zone coverage against the Chiefs? The short answer is it doesn’t really matter, because Mahomes shreds both better than anyone else.

Maybe blitz him?

LOLOLOLOLOL

Don’t blitz Mahomes.

Throwing deep vs throwing shallow

Some quarterbacks make their living throwing short/intermediate (Jimmy G). Some have elite deep weapons (Tua) and live with the deep ball.

Mahomes? Doesn’t matter. He’s elite in production in both areas.

We’re running out of space, so one more…

Likelihood of a multiple-touchdown game

Tej is a good guy who is doing terrific work, and this is one of my favorites. This graph shows how likely it is that Mahomes will throw “x” number of touchdowns in a given game compared to the NFL average. Note that the “average” is that there is slightly above a 50% chance of 0-1 touchdowns in a given game, and barely a 10% chance that a QB throws at least 3 TD’s in a game.

With Mahomes, you are more than twice as likely to get a 3 or 4 touchdown game than a normal quarterback. You’ve got a higher likelihood that Mahomes throws 4 touchdowns than 0 touchdowns. Re-read that last sentence.

There’s never been anything like Mahomes, a genuine outlier in a sport designed for parity. And it’s worth taking the time to really appreciate just what a unique, historical thing we’re seeing happen every time he takes the field.