I have zero interest in mock drafts, draft projections etc because to me it's all just conjecture and nothing more. But for several months I have been drooling (metaphorically, anyway) at the thought of the Chiefs acquiring Johnston one way or another.
Thanks for this excellent in-depth look at his pluses and minuses. I'm still metaphorically drooling at the thought.
I enjoy reading about the prospects, but only the ones we have a fighting chance of drafting, not the ones who I'll fall in love with and then get my heart broken...
Yeah, mock drafts aren't really my jam for sure. The best I can do to get excited is looking at guys at positions of need. Otherwise it's just way too hypothetical for me.
Mock drafts are by no means gospel, but they're still usually a decent barometer of where a prospect is likely to be drafted. Based on what I've gleaned, the Chiefs would have to trade up to at least 22 to have any shot of drafting Johnston. I'd certainly support them doing so, given the total lack of receiver additions in free agency. But he might be long gone by then, as several mocks predict Johnston will be selected at 14 or 15. The Chiefs might have a better chance of drafting Zay Flowers if they're willing to trade up to 20 or 22. Any early thoughts on drafting Flowers at that point in the First Round? Or have you not had the chance to watch any film on him yet?
That's what I suspected. We all appreciate your tireless efforts, Seth, and look forward to your assessment of Flowers whenever you're able to complete the film breakdown.
Same here, BPD. I don’t pay attention until after the draft (usually). However, as another KC fan put it, now that the Royals are eliminated we should focus on the Chiefs. LOL.
That TCU team worked hard and played with a ton of heart. They were definitely the little fish in a big pond. Seems like a script for “coachable players”. I hope the Chiefs take him.
I hope we pick a WR or TE in the draft but I have seen over the years that our Chiefs wind up kissing a lot of frogs before they find their prince at those positions. It seems to me that Seth has identified enough concerns with Johnston that I fear he could be another frog. And his 40 time is good but nothing to write home about.
Having said that, if Seth deems him worthy, that is important. But I still hope we can snare a top TE, EDGE or OT early too.
I am more than happy with Brett’s priorities in whatever sequence they may be. But yes, it would seem to me one pass catching weapon in this draft should be adequate. Plenty of other needs to address.
It wouldn't feel like spamming since we're all members who receive your emails, which are clearly labeled "Seth Keysor from The Chief in the North Newsletter".
But maybe I'm the only "Chief in he North" member without Twitter. I just read or hear about everything vicariously. Twitter gossip and battles end up being cited as 'evidence' in many articles!
I like him too, but I think he's gone well before 31. And I don't think it's worth trading up for him given the premium even to move up 6-7 spots in the 1st. Plus, I think KC goes OL/DL in the first. Too many holes/impending holes at those position groups
Valid points, all of them. All I can say is that one way or another "in Veach I trust." And I haven't been able to say that about any other Chiefs GM since before Jack Steadman.
Dang, good memory, Dude. I remember Klosterman now that you mention him. But I was not really “aware” when they were in Dallas. I think we can agree Steadman and Veach are our top 2 all time.
They're so thin at WR right now that I'm beginning to wonder if Andy will find himself in the same position Spags was in last year: forced to rely on rookies as a significant part of a position group whether he wanted to or not.
I'd like to hope so. But let's not forget that in Andy's era the only two home grown pro bowl wrs were tyreek and mecole. This just might not be a strength for Andy.
Right now I've got my fingers crossed they sign obj at a good price. Seems like the best short term option. I'd rather use the draft capital to add some dogs on defense.
I'm thoroughly opposed to bringing OBJ here but I can understand the appeal! My concern is that after a broken ankle, several significant hamstring injuries and a torn ACL does he still have the speed and cutting ability to be a productive WR in the NFL? (As he proved, almost anybody can look good in a workout against air. All I really learned from those videos is that he has the ability to make unnecessary one-handed catches.)
I get that I do. But you need a vet and at this point in fa they don't have many options left unless they trade for a guy. Right now in my mind he's the top choice with the least downside
My other concern with OBJ is that he's only been able to be on the field for more than seven games in three of the last six seasons. Given his injury history and the fact that he's aging, I don't see much reason for optimism in that area. Even if somebody signs him I strongly suspect that he'll be unavailable on game days far more than he'll be available.
The issue there is k. Toney is already that type of dude in terms of availability. Look I'm not saying it's likely or ideal but if they get him at the right price and he does have a bit of a bounce back to him it is a level of depth at the wr position they kinda need. Any rookie they draft won't get enough targets and snaps and considering kcs track record under Andy developing drafted wr talent Moore taking a giant leap isn't guaranteed. (Same for practice squad dudes like ross)
Yeah, he's in an interesting spot to where I wouldn't MIND if they moved up for him but I wouldn't pound the table for it the way I would've for London or Olave last year.
The perfect WR doesn't exist - and if he did he'd be long gone before the Chiefs pick at #31. I think we need to accept that every player available in the draft has flaws, and most of them have multiple flaws. Reasonable people can disagree about the magnitude and importance of those flaws but they're going to exist whether we like it or not.
I very much get that, though I'll take "has the juice to get open" over contested catch specialists every time. It's just hard to live that way (barring being unbelievable at it, like Hopkins) in the NFL.
Skyy Moore had 22 receptions on 33 targets for 250yds at 11.4yds/catch
Kadarius Toney had 14 receptions on 17 targets for 171yds at 12.2yds/catch
The Chiefs almost certainly will be targeting these two more than they did last year - the question is how much more. And how many targets would Johnston be likely to get?
Last year Kelce had 152 targets and JJSS had 101 targets. MVS had 81 and next most was McKinnon at 71.
As perspective, DeAndre Hopkins had one season (2014) where he received over 1,000 yds without being targeted more (and sometimes way more) than 150 targets. Also, in the last 10 years, only one receiver in the NFL has topped 1,000 yards with fewer than 104 targets (Sammy Watkins [95 1,047] in 2015 with Buffalo).
JJSS, Hardman and Watson accounted for 169 targets last season - so there are targets to go around.
I'd like to add a solid receiver or two but I would prioritize DL and OT over WR in the draft this year.
Agree. I have read comments that this is not a strong WR class. But it is supposed to be promising for TEs. Perhaps check the TE box this time for weapons-grade skill selections for Patrick?
And what’s with Nnadi?! He was graded nearly the worst DT in the league last season. And he’s baaaaaack! 🫣😵💫🤦 Brett is great but sometimes I am baffled at a few moves. (I am usually later proven the ignorance of my position.)
Yeah, I really wanted to see them keep Khalen Saunders instead but I guess the numbers were way wrong.
There's not much doubt that Nnadi needs to improve significantly this year. I had high hopes for that guy when he was a rookie but have been pretty disappointed with him.
Oh man I so agree on that nnadi point. I can't believe they couldn't upgrade over that dude. I get if they didn't want to pay Saunders but they should've let nnadi walk.
Looking at it from a lens of available targets is smart. I'd also look at it through the lens of situational football. With Juju gone, now defenses don't have (unless Toney/Moore come along and stay healthy, which is of course the best case scenario) another "above average" receiver to worry about and can be more creative with their coverages around man looks.
It's crazy. Seth had the wrs drafted under Andy and only tyreek and mecole were home grown pro bowlers. Just the weakness both picking and developing makes me not want to take one.
Okay this will test my chiefs memory a bit, but I think we drafted Dwayne bowe? Joe horn I think ultimately made a pro bowl with the saints. Despite the prolificness of the vermeil era they drafted no good wrs. The best of the Marty era was Chris Penn iirc? Dexter mccluster showed promise for a few years.
My favorite kc wr before we got tyreek was Andre rison and he was a free agent signing. Tyreek should make the hof if he keeps racking up 1000 yard years, do maybe that's another we can add to the drafted wr list.
I thought about Bowe but in my judgment he didn’t rise to outstanding. Forgot about Joe Horn but I would not count him either. We drafted him but the Saints developed him when we could not, if I remember his career arc.
It's weird but now that we've got pat I'm glad the way things turned out. Yeah there were a lot of tough years/decades but I'm pretty sure we got the goat now, so it makes those years suck a lot less.
Some are projecting the Packers taking him with the 15th pick so, we'd have to trade up to No#14 (Patriots) to get him.
We gave up the 2017 first round pick (27th), a 3rd round pick and the 2018 1st round pick to move up to get PM15 at pick #10 so, we'd probably have to give up about the same this year (at 31) if we wanted him.
In Andy Reid's 23 years of drafting in the 1st round, he's only drafted 2 wide receivers withmixedresults. The first was Freddie Mitchell in 2001 with the 25th overall pick (anybody remember him playing for the Chiefs in 2005, we cut him before the 1st game) and his 4 years with the Eagles wasn't great by any means.
The 2nd WR he took in the first round was Jeremy Maclin in 2009 with the 19th overall pick and after a few nice years, he retired 8 years later with 6,835 yards.
My biggest concern with drafting a WR in the 1st round is getting another Jonathan Baldwin (26th overall in 2011, same size as Quentin Johnston) but, I'd be just fine with another Dwayne Bowe, 23rd overall in 2007.
Love the Dwayne bowe mention! One of the reasons I'm still mad about that playoff loss to the colts was he never got to show his skills on a bigger stage
Great piece I loved the clips you selected. I like the breakdown of how he creates separation and his moves at the line.
BUT..
You shouldn't have included wrs in the poll. Tbh if odell or dhop become chiefs in the next month before the draft the fans wouldnt want a 1st round wr. Also as you pointed out so well last week, this the least likely option to full the wr hole for coaching reasons. I don't expect veach to invest a first rounder in a guy who is limited in helping them win now and if he did it'd be super weird considering Andy's tendencies. More likely they'll solve the wr problem before the draft and they'll go defense/ol on draft day.
I have a R7 draft crush: TE Nate Adkins. He played significant snaps as a FB on passing downs the last half of 2022. He made a coupla spectacular catches, too. He played a key role on Special Teams for the #1 special teams in the country. He caused the game clinching fumble of the SC v Clemson game. His Dad is a college OL coach, & he’s a throwback “do whatever you need player”. He ran a 4.62 at his Pro Day. If Big Red wants a FB, this kid fits the bill on a very light contract.
I have zero interest in mock drafts, draft projections etc because to me it's all just conjecture and nothing more. But for several months I have been drooling (metaphorically, anyway) at the thought of the Chiefs acquiring Johnston one way or another.
Thanks for this excellent in-depth look at his pluses and minuses. I'm still metaphorically drooling at the thought.
I enjoy reading about the prospects, but only the ones we have a fighting chance of drafting, not the ones who I'll fall in love with and then get my heart broken...
We have a shot at this one
Right. So when I look at edges I'm not going to go with Will Anderson, etc.
Yeah, mock drafts aren't really my jam for sure. The best I can do to get excited is looking at guys at positions of need. Otherwise it's just way too hypothetical for me.
Mock drafts are by no means gospel, but they're still usually a decent barometer of where a prospect is likely to be drafted. Based on what I've gleaned, the Chiefs would have to trade up to at least 22 to have any shot of drafting Johnston. I'd certainly support them doing so, given the total lack of receiver additions in free agency. But he might be long gone by then, as several mocks predict Johnston will be selected at 14 or 15. The Chiefs might have a better chance of drafting Zay Flowers if they're willing to trade up to 20 or 22. Any early thoughts on drafting Flowers at that point in the First Round? Or have you not had the chance to watch any film on him yet?
He's on the list, but I haven't gotten to him yet! I was going to look at a DL first.
That's what I suspected. We all appreciate your tireless efforts, Seth, and look forward to your assessment of Flowers whenever you're able to complete the film breakdown.
Same here, BPD. I don’t pay attention until after the draft (usually). However, as another KC fan put it, now that the Royals are eliminated we should focus on the Chiefs. LOL.
I've been hurt by WRs like this before....and I'm ready to be hurt again.
Sylvester Morris and Jon Baldwin still give me nightmares (I also may have aged myself there too).
Ha! Johnston definitely moves better than either of them.
That TCU team worked hard and played with a ton of heart. They were definitely the little fish in a big pond. Seems like a script for “coachable players”. I hope the Chiefs take him.
He seems to be mocked to us on a frequent basis....I hope he lives up to Seth's projection.
I hope we pick a WR or TE in the draft but I have seen over the years that our Chiefs wind up kissing a lot of frogs before they find their prince at those positions. It seems to me that Seth has identified enough concerns with Johnston that I fear he could be another frog. And his 40 time is good but nothing to write home about.
Having said that, if Seth deems him worthy, that is important. But I still hope we can snare a top TE, EDGE or OT early too.
Don’t let the fact that he’s a “Horned Frog” unfairly sway your judgement.
Duly noted. 👍
😁 Love dem froggies ❤️
There are some TALENTED TE's in this class, to be sure.
In which case you wait until the 2nd or 3rd to take your TE. But do you go WR in the 1st and still go TE in 2 or 3? Seems like pass catching overkill.
I am more than happy with Brett’s priorities in whatever sequence they may be. But yes, it would seem to me one pass catching weapon in this draft should be adequate. Plenty of other needs to address.
I missed the memo on the poll of positions to review. Where was it posted?
It was posted on Seth's twitter a few days ago. ( I wonder if WR would have won if kc brought in obj.)
Oh. Seems like an email to the membership would ensure all were polled.
I don't really like sending out quick posts via email, for purposes of not spamming people. So I generally utilize twitter for the polls!
It wouldn't feel like spamming since we're all members who receive your emails, which are clearly labeled "Seth Keysor from The Chief in the North Newsletter".
But maybe I'm the only "Chief in he North" member without Twitter. I just read or hear about everything vicariously. Twitter gossip and battles end up being cited as 'evidence' in many articles!
I appreciate the feedback! And I'm envious of your lack of twitter presence hahaha.
My polling opinions would probably reflect everyone else's anyway. 😉
Are defensive end and EDGE now considered different positions?
I like him too, but I think he's gone well before 31. And I don't think it's worth trading up for him given the premium even to move up 6-7 spots in the 1st. Plus, I think KC goes OL/DL in the first. Too many holes/impending holes at those position groups
Valid points, all of them. All I can say is that one way or another "in Veach I trust." And I haven't been able to say that about any other Chiefs GM since before Jack Steadman.
Jack Steadman was the first general manager.
My point exactly!
Although Don Klosterman sort of functioned as an unofficial GM when they were first getting started in Dallas.
Dang, good memory, Dude. I remember Klosterman now that you mention him. But I was not really “aware” when they were in Dallas. I think we can agree Steadman and Veach are our top 2 all time.
Agree on trusting veach! Just my gut he knows that Andy isn't big on playing WRs during their rookie years, he might not take one with the first pick
They're so thin at WR right now that I'm beginning to wonder if Andy will find himself in the same position Spags was in last year: forced to rely on rookies as a significant part of a position group whether he wanted to or not.
I'd like to hope so. But let's not forget that in Andy's era the only two home grown pro bowl wrs were tyreek and mecole. This just might not be a strength for Andy.
Right now I've got my fingers crossed they sign obj at a good price. Seems like the best short term option. I'd rather use the draft capital to add some dogs on defense.
I'm thoroughly opposed to bringing OBJ here but I can understand the appeal! My concern is that after a broken ankle, several significant hamstring injuries and a torn ACL does he still have the speed and cutting ability to be a productive WR in the NFL? (As he proved, almost anybody can look good in a workout against air. All I really learned from those videos is that he has the ability to make unnecessary one-handed catches.)
I get that I do. But you need a vet and at this point in fa they don't have many options left unless they trade for a guy. Right now in my mind he's the top choice with the least downside
My other concern with OBJ is that he's only been able to be on the field for more than seven games in three of the last six seasons. Given his injury history and the fact that he's aging, I don't see much reason for optimism in that area. Even if somebody signs him I strongly suspect that he'll be unavailable on game days far more than he'll be available.
I think we are safe, BPD. OBJ doesn’t seem like a player to sign a low salary, high incentive contract.
The issue there is k. Toney is already that type of dude in terms of availability. Look I'm not saying it's likely or ideal but if they get him at the right price and he does have a bit of a bounce back to him it is a level of depth at the wr position they kinda need. Any rookie they draft won't get enough targets and snaps and considering kcs track record under Andy developing drafted wr talent Moore taking a giant leap isn't guaranteed. (Same for practice squad dudes like ross)
Yeah, he's in an interesting spot to where I wouldn't MIND if they moved up for him but I wouldn't pound the table for it the way I would've for London or Olave last year.
If the Chiefs draft a bigger wide receiver, I prefer contested catches be one of his strengths.
The perfect WR doesn't exist - and if he did he'd be long gone before the Chiefs pick at #31. I think we need to accept that every player available in the draft has flaws, and most of them have multiple flaws. Reasonable people can disagree about the magnitude and importance of those flaws but they're going to exist whether we like it or not.
I very much get that, though I'll take "has the juice to get open" over contested catch specialists every time. It's just hard to live that way (barring being unbelievable at it, like Hopkins) in the NFL.
Skyy Moore had 22 receptions on 33 targets for 250yds at 11.4yds/catch
Kadarius Toney had 14 receptions on 17 targets for 171yds at 12.2yds/catch
The Chiefs almost certainly will be targeting these two more than they did last year - the question is how much more. And how many targets would Johnston be likely to get?
Last year Kelce had 152 targets and JJSS had 101 targets. MVS had 81 and next most was McKinnon at 71.
As perspective, DeAndre Hopkins had one season (2014) where he received over 1,000 yds without being targeted more (and sometimes way more) than 150 targets. Also, in the last 10 years, only one receiver in the NFL has topped 1,000 yards with fewer than 104 targets (Sammy Watkins [95 1,047] in 2015 with Buffalo).
JJSS, Hardman and Watson accounted for 169 targets last season - so there are targets to go around.
I'd like to add a solid receiver or two but I would prioritize DL and OT over WR in the draft this year.
Agree. I have read comments that this is not a strong WR class. But it is supposed to be promising for TEs. Perhaps check the TE box this time for weapons-grade skill selections for Patrick?
😸 So you've officially jumped off the Blake Bell train?
Come to think of it I was never on that train myself!
And what’s with Nnadi?! He was graded nearly the worst DT in the league last season. And he’s baaaaaack! 🫣😵💫🤦 Brett is great but sometimes I am baffled at a few moves. (I am usually later proven the ignorance of my position.)
Yeah, I really wanted to see them keep Khalen Saunders instead but I guess the numbers were way wrong.
There's not much doubt that Nnadi needs to improve significantly this year. I had high hopes for that guy when he was a rookie but have been pretty disappointed with him.
Oh man I so agree on that nnadi point. I can't believe they couldn't upgrade over that dude. I get if they didn't want to pay Saunders but they should've let nnadi walk.
Concur on the priorities over WR. Also seth said last week drafting a wr is the least likely option to fill the hole
Looking at it from a lens of available targets is smart. I'd also look at it through the lens of situational football. With Juju gone, now defenses don't have (unless Toney/Moore come along and stay healthy, which is of course the best case scenario) another "above average" receiver to worry about and can be more creative with their coverages around man looks.
I’d rather have Mayer from Notre Dame. He’s the real deal and he could be the heir apparent to Kelce.
I love multiple TE's in this class and would absolutely not mind if they went that route!
Chiefs have been so close to some WR prospects I really liked (Metcalf and Pickens), maybe this time they can actually take the big guy.
Agreed. Love Johnson…think he goes top 20 tho. Now Cedric Tillman or Jonathan Mingo, I hope Seth has a chance to look at them.
It's crazy. Seth had the wrs drafted under Andy and only tyreek and mecole were home grown pro bowlers. Just the weakness both picking and developing makes me not want to take one.
Precisely! 👍🙏 And perhaps less relevant but before those two, I cannot remember any outstanding drafted WR going back to Otis Taylor.
Okay this will test my chiefs memory a bit, but I think we drafted Dwayne bowe? Joe horn I think ultimately made a pro bowl with the saints. Despite the prolificness of the vermeil era they drafted no good wrs. The best of the Marty era was Chris Penn iirc? Dexter mccluster showed promise for a few years.
My favorite kc wr before we got tyreek was Andre rison and he was a free agent signing. Tyreek should make the hof if he keeps racking up 1000 yard years, do maybe that's another we can add to the drafted wr list.
I thought about Bowe but in my judgment he didn’t rise to outstanding. Forgot about Joe Horn but I would not count him either. We drafted him but the Saints developed him when we could not, if I remember his career arc.
Bad evaluation, timing and drafting for need has been a problem. I mean look at this streak.
2017 Tanoh 2 picks before JuJu
2018 Breeland Speaks the pick before Christian Kirk
2019 reached for Mecole…drafted Thornhill the pick before DK
2020 CEH the pick before Tee Higgins
Great points and amazing research on those drafts!
Dk and Higgins hurt bad. Though Thornhill and mecole made enough plays to justify not taking dk. The Higgins one will haunt us.
I wish I did not know that T Higgins detail. Lol. Not as bad as Blackledge over Marino and Kelly, but still.
It's weird but now that we've got pat I'm glad the way things turned out. Yeah there were a lot of tough years/decades but I'm pretty sure we got the goat now, so it makes those years suck a lot less.
IDK, the 2020 through 2022 classes have a lot more hits than many other draft classes, so I'm cautious about calling it a problem per se.
That said, that '18 draft was just ROUGH haha.
Some are projecting the Packers taking him with the 15th pick so, we'd have to trade up to No#14 (Patriots) to get him.
We gave up the 2017 first round pick (27th), a 3rd round pick and the 2018 1st round pick to move up to get PM15 at pick #10 so, we'd probably have to give up about the same this year (at 31) if we wanted him.
In Andy Reid's 23 years of drafting in the 1st round, he's only drafted 2 wide receivers withmixedresults. The first was Freddie Mitchell in 2001 with the 25th overall pick (anybody remember him playing for the Chiefs in 2005, we cut him before the 1st game) and his 4 years with the Eagles wasn't great by any means.
The 2nd WR he took in the first round was Jeremy Maclin in 2009 with the 19th overall pick and after a few nice years, he retired 8 years later with 6,835 yards.
My biggest concern with drafting a WR in the 1st round is getting another Jonathan Baldwin (26th overall in 2011, same size as Quentin Johnston) but, I'd be just fine with another Dwayne Bowe, 23rd overall in 2007.
Love the Dwayne bowe mention! One of the reasons I'm still mad about that playoff loss to the colts was he never got to show his skills on a bigger stage
He was a beast to be reckoned with when healthy. I couldn't only imagine what he'd been like with a QB like Patrick Mahomes.
Great piece I loved the clips you selected. I like the breakdown of how he creates separation and his moves at the line.
BUT..
You shouldn't have included wrs in the poll. Tbh if odell or dhop become chiefs in the next month before the draft the fans wouldnt want a 1st round wr. Also as you pointed out so well last week, this the least likely option to full the wr hole for coaching reasons. I don't expect veach to invest a first rounder in a guy who is limited in helping them win now and if he did it'd be super weird considering Andy's tendencies. More likely they'll solve the wr problem before the draft and they'll go defense/ol on draft day.
Even if they grabbed Hop or Odell, I'd want them to strongly consider a 1st round receiver considering those guys' ages tbh.
I have a R7 draft crush: TE Nate Adkins. He played significant snaps as a FB on passing downs the last half of 2022. He made a coupla spectacular catches, too. He played a key role on Special Teams for the #1 special teams in the country. He caused the game clinching fumble of the SC v Clemson game. His Dad is a college OL coach, & he’s a throwback “do whatever you need player”. He ran a 4.62 at his Pro Day. If Big Red wants a FB, this kid fits the bill on a very light contract.
If you're taking suggestions for players to review, would love to get your thoughts on Auburn DE Derick Hall.