Know your Chiefs draft crush Part 1: wide receiver methodology and Quentin Johnston
It's the time of year to start talking draft crushes. Let's start with a WR who has traits for days.
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Draft season is officially here.
Well, for many people, it’s been here for a while. Dane Brugler (the undisputed king of draft coverage) has issued a bit of a preview of his annual “Beast” draft guide. Danny Kelly with The Ringer (one of my favorite analysts) has got his own interactive guide up and running. And our friends at the KC Sports Network are about to drop their now-annual Chiefs-centric draft guide (a must-have I’d urge anyone to order).
But for guys like me, who don’t follow college football (or the draft) year-round? It’s just getting started. Which means it’s time for one of my favorite yearly traditions.
That’s right, “know your Chiefs draft crush” is back!
This year, the Chiefs’ options seem a bit more wide open than previous seasons. It wouldn’t surprise me if Brett Veach went any number of directions in the first and second round, from defensive lineman to wide receiver to offensive tackle to even tight end or safety. Because of that, rather than focusing on just one position like we have previous years, I’ll try to branch out a bit and look at at least two. And you, the people, spoke as to what two position groups to look at.
The results of this poll were pretty heavily in favor of wide receiver and defensive lineman, so that’s the route we’ll go. From now until the draft (barring some move from Veach that changes the apparent plan), I’ll take a look at as many WR and DL options as I can. The DL choices will generally lean towards edge, because that’s where the most likely pick is in my opinion.
This week, to kick us off, we’ll start with wide receiver Quentin Johnston, a player wo has been mocked to the Chiefs a few times and has some interesting traits. I didn’t pick him first out of any other reason than basically “hey, I saw that dude in a mock draft to Kansas City,” so don’t read into him being first in line. Oh, and also, he’s apparently at least generating SOME interest from the Chiefs.
Let’s talk about the methodology we’ll use for wide receivers, then talk about Johnston’s tape. Fortunately, since we did this last year, we’ve got some frame of reference for our wide receivers (and I’ll try to bring in some of last year’s players for comparison’s sake in our finale).
We’ll always start with a look at the player’s height/weight and college attended. Then I’ll take a look at every snap in multiple games, then write up about the same traits for each wide receiver I examine. Those traits are as follows, with a kinda/sorta summary of the information we’re looking for in each trait:
-Speed / acceleration / agility- What sort of athlete is this guy? Is he fast, quick, or both? Can he change direction comfortably? Does he run away from defenders, and how long does it take from his breaks to do so?
-Release ability- How well does he start off his routes? Does he show the ability to deal with press coverage? Does he get a good jump at the line? Can he shake physicality or run/fight through it?
-Route running- How are his feet? What sort of tree was he asked to run? Does he waste steps? Can he maintain speed throughout breaks? How does he handle contact throughout the route?
-Hands / strength at catch point- Does he catch with his hands? Show the strength to win when he has to fight for it? Does he track the ball well in the air?
-Yards after catch / playmaking- Can he create yards? Does he shake the first tackler with consistency?
-Overall Takeaway- What’s the final verdict? This is where I’ll give a “grade” of sorts by sayin where I’d be willing to draft the player.
Let’s get started with Johnston, a really intriguing player for the Chiefs.
Quentin Johnston - TCU
Relevant measurements - 6’3”, 208 pounds
Games reviewed - Kansas, Kansas State, Michigan, Baylor, West Virginia
-Speed / acceleration / agility-
Johnston is a pretty rare combination of size, speed, and quickness. While he’s built lanky like a strider and does have some tendencies in that direction, he accelerates better than most striders and also has significantly more quickness and short-area burst than most guys built like him. That combination of long speed, acceleration, and shiftiness gives him a high ceiling, and it’s part of what made him a big play waiting to happen in college.
Most of what you’ll see in Johnston’s highlights are him getting behind defenses, and he showed the “if I’m even, I’m leaving” ability pretty consistently. But what stuck out to me was that he’s not JUST a long speed guy, and he has the quickness to separate on shorter routes and avoid contact from defenders as well.
Most long receivers aren’t able to change direction, and/or start/stop like Johnston can, and it’s part of what makes his ceiling so high. He’s not limited to any particular role and can be all over the field thanks to his natural gifts, and it’s probably the part of his game that makes him most appealing.
-Release ability-
Johnston’s quicker-than-expected feet, combined with his ability to accelerate decently, make him a tough out for corners at the line of scrimmage (at least in the limited snaps where guys tried to press him. He’s also got good length/size and isn’t afraid to mix it up at the line of scrimmage and swat away CB’s attempting to get hands on him, and he’s agile enough to maintain speed while doing so.
Johnston doesn’t get the ball here, but it’s the sort of play that’s demonstrative of what he does well with his releases. His quick feet let him stutter for a moment at the line to keep the CB off-balance without wasting too much time, and that swipe of the corner’s hands once he breaks inside (along with the acceleration up the field) is beautiful. The fact that he wasn’t targeted is demonstrative of why it’s important to look for traits, not stats, because this is a terrific release.
Johnston also showed comfort (on limited snaps) running through contact when defenders were able to more successfully get a hand on him, which bodes well for him in the pros. He’s got all the tools to be a solid release man, which (along with his athleticism) helps him threaten shallow as well as intermediate/deep.
-Route running-
Like many college receivers, Johnston wasn’t asked to run a terribly complete route tree at TCU, and I didn’t note him having to make many sight adjustments. He also needs polish/practice on varying his speeds through zones to present his QB with an open spot to target.
That said, Johnston did show the ability to be the setup man on picks and was never noticeably in the wrong spot. Further, he’s got solid feet and does a pretty nice job getting through cuts without losing too much speed. His natural quickness combined with his tendency to not waste steps gives him an edge on corners who are worried about getting beaten deep, so he’s solid at gaining separation on comebacks, deep curls, and other similar routes like you’d expect. But he’s also able to separate shallow with his decent feet and physical traits.
Not to sound like a broken record, but bigger receivers aren’t generally expected to separate well on quick slants like this. Johnston’s quickness helps, but the way he sets up the corner and explodes inside here without spending too much time taking pointless steps is really nice to see.
Johnston also shows some comfort with contact throughout routes and will fight hands with the CB while keeping speed and not getting knocked off course. He’ll also push back at the stem of routes when corners try to fight/hold him there.
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Johnston will be a work in progress to show off a full pro route tree and that he can work through zones along with sight adjustments. He also needs to improve as a “second play” wide receiver when things break down, as he doesn’t stay busy and come back to the corner (or find the open space) the way I’d like. But the ability to separate against man is there and he shows a nice foundation with his feet and willingness/ability to fight contact.
-Hands / strength at catch point-
You’ve probably been reading to this point and though, “whoa, this is all terrific news, but how is Johnston not a surefire top 15 pick with his combination of athleticism, size, release and decent route running?”
The answer is in his hands. While Johnston shows capability of making tough catches and wasn’t necessarily a drops machine, he did show some body catching tendencies and also had a few concentration drops in the games I reviewed.
This is a good example of where you can get the best of Johnston along with the worst. He runs a nice route and creates separation, but you can almost see him thinking about his yards after the catch rather than focusing on bringing the ball in first. It’s not terribly common, but it happened often enough to be a problem he’ll need to address.
Additionally, Johnston, despite his size and length, isn’t a consistent contested catch guy and can be outfought at the point where the ball arrives. There were plays in which a corner/safety was able to run through him and contest a ball that Johnston should have really boxed them out and went up for physically. It’s interesting, because Johnston doesn’t show an issue with physicality on releases and throughout his routes. But at the catch point it’s not a strength of his. Whether that’s something that can be coached into him is worth exploring, but it does limit him at times and (along with his concentration drops) is what keeps him from being a slam dunk prospect.
On the plus side, Johnston also made multiple catches over the middle of the field where he knew he’d take a hit in the games I watched, and was willing to absorb that contact. So while he’s not a contested-catch guy, he is a guy who can take a shot after collecting the ball.
He also showed the ability to adjust to the ball in the air while he’s running deep routes without losing speed, able to track it over his shoulder. Watch how he sees where the ball is arriving and adjusts his trajectory and pace on this deep ball (coming left to right from off screen)
Johnston has created the separation needed to run the ball down if it’s placed in front of him, but the QB can’t get quite enough air underneath it. Johnston sees that mid-route and adjusts to it over his shoulder, then hauls it in knowing he’ll get hit as the ball arrives.
Overall, ball skills is a mixed back with Johnston. He’s inconsistent with his hands and will need to work on his ability to box out defenders. But he’s also able to track the ball deep (a vital skill to be a viable deep threat, just as much or more than speed) and, at times, showed the traits to improve here. But the drops and lack of consistently contested ball skills is the weakest part of his game.
-Yards after catch / playmaking-
After talking about where he’s weakest, we shift right back to a strength for Johnston, who is a very capable YAC player with the ball in his hands. Johnston’s combination of short-area quickness, acceleration, and speed combined with his size and willingness to fight for extra yards makes him a hassle to bring down in space, and he consistently makes the first defender miss.
(he’s again coming left to right, this time on a drag route)
Secondary defenders have a tough choice to make when Johnston is coming at them with the ball in his hands. He’s big enough and strong enough to shake them off if they don’t commit hard to the tackle, but he’s shifty enough to make them miss if they over-extend and if they only get a single hand on him he’ll run through it.
Johnston consistently maximized his yards after catch and is able to chew up angles of pursuing tacklers as well. It’s another area he’s a big play waiting to happen, as the defense needs to swarm to prevent him from grabbing extra yards after making the first guy miss. TCU utilized this skillset by getting him the ball quickly on sweeps and screens, and he nearly always fought for every yard he could get. And he was constantly a threat to turn a short gain (like the one above) into a longer one.
-Overall Takeaway-
Last year, the first receiver I picked (Treylon Burks) was one who had enough holes in his game that I wasn’t comfortable utilizing a first round. That’s not the case with Johnston.
His combination of size, athleticism, ability to get good releases, tracking the ball well deep, and ability to grab extra yards after the catch gives him a high ceiling as a player. He also shows the ability to win inside and outside at all three levels of the field, something the Chiefs need in their WR room. His hands concern me, but it was more a consistency issue than a “consistently bad” issue, and the good far outweighs the bad.
If the Chiefs were able to grab Johnston in the first round, I’d be very happy. And even if they moved up a few spots to grab him (though not too far) I’d be perfectly fine with it.
We’ll see what the rest of the class holds, but Johnston is a good start.
I've been hurt by WRs like this before....and I'm ready to be hurt again.
I have zero interest in mock drafts, draft projections etc because to me it's all just conjecture and nothing more. But for several months I have been drooling (metaphorically, anyway) at the thought of the Chiefs acquiring Johnston one way or another.
Thanks for this excellent in-depth look at his pluses and minuses. I'm still metaphorically drooling at the thought.