Examining multiple games from 2021 and the speedy WR's limited 2022 snaps to see where he wins, where he needs to improve, and what the possibilities are in KC this season and beyond.
I’m very surprised with your findings. I also thought he was a guy who got caught up in the teams searching for their Tyreek phenomenon. Looks like we have ourselves a dude.
Question, do you worry our staff just hasn’t been able to develop receivers? We’ve had a lot of shots at young receivers and really haven’t had any hits (Hill being the outlier).
Receivers are getting paid now because most teams struggle to draft and develop them. Route running in the NFL is so different from college, it's just hard to know which guys will be capable of picking it up.
I wouldn't say we've taken too many swings at the position.
Moore - 2nd
Powell - 5th
Hardman - 2nd
Chesson - 4th
Robinson - 4th; Hill 5th
Conley - 3rd
That's 7 total picks in the 10 drafts the Chiefs have had since Reid came onboard. Only 3 of those taken in the first 3 rounds. Hardman's productivity is constantly underappreciated among the fanbase and his learning curve was always expected to be steep given his offense in college. Moore's still new. Conley just fell victim to the biggest problem he had coming out of the draft; slow feet. He couldn't get separation because he was a strider with pretty mediocre burst out of his cuts. That was just a failed pick, IMO - he lacked a key trait to succeed in this offense.
Now Moore's an important one, though. He needs to be develop into a solid complementary receiver. If he doesn't, you've got some concerns there. But the reason the Chiefs haven't developed a lot of young WR talent recently is that they haven't tried terribly hard to acquire it.
Well said. I'll die (metaphorically of course) on the hill where a handful of fans/analysts contend that Hardman, for all his limitations, has outperformed his draft position. Robinson likewise delivered more than your typical pick from late in the 4th round.
There are fewer than 32 dominant WR who can play on the outside, consistently beat press-man coverage, and effectively find open space vs zone coverage. There's a reason why these guys get paid what they do, and it's not realistic to think these types of receivers can be developed as if from an assembly line.
That said, I'd also agree with the idea that every receiver who plays with/for Mahomes/Reid should outperform his draft status if he works hard enough and avoids serious injury. So I'm still optimistic about what Moore will do in this offense.
I was deeply surprised at the variety of skillset he demonstrated when on the field.
I think it's going to be ALL about health and attitude for him. Because the physical skillset is exceptional in terms not just of quickness, but a lot of other things that help WR's succeed.
IDK if I'm worried about that honestly. Robinson, Pringle, Conley etc all looked their best here. I think it's a matter of investment. Hardman was always a specific skillset reach and a tough out to develop into a great all-around receiver.
Loved your breakdown on RGR, also. It was funny when you were getting ready to leave a couple of times but still sat down with your coat on. lol Love your film reviews, they make it easier for me to understand the plays. Been watching and following the Chiefs since I was a kid, which means a very long time ago.
I haven't gotten to read the full article yet, so maybe you've mentioned this already, but I've heard a lot of people calling Toney the next Tyreek Hill and I don't agree. That first clip of him does remind me a lot of Dante Hall tho. He's fast for sure, but not the straight line speed of Hill, and he seems to bounce around like Hall used to do. It reminded me of the Hall punt return against the Broncos
Yes! Now that you mention it he definitely looks Dante Hall-ish in some of those clips. Lordy, wouldn't it be nice to have a "human joystick" who can actually catch passes downfield?
Maybe we have that guy now and maybe we don't. Like it or not, we're gonna find out!
Yeah, I don't agree with the Tyreek comp, but mostly because there IS no Tyreek comp. He's completely unique in that he's the fastest player in the league while also being the quickest player in the league while ALSO having some of the best body control in the league. He's one of the best athletes to ever play in the NFL.
I think Hall is a better comparison in terms of quickness/speed traits, it's just that Toney is built bigger and flashes better ball skills (IN THEORY, don't want to get anyone too excited haha).
First I watched that 40 yd sideline catch closeup and it was insane what he had to work through to make the catch. He had the defender up high but going down as the wave of body was rolling in to take him out.
The evolution of Tyreek's transition to WR took a couple of years though Toney has some experience and a head start, as he is a WR. Still, seasoned pros MVS and Ju-Ju are just now settling in with Mahomes. Playoff surprise?
It didn't get much air time but Tyreek's toughness jumped off the screen for me. He took a lot of big boy hits, often winning. He also prepped incredibly well fir those hits. I hope Toney understands the KC trainers are his BFF.
I like to think you just documented the reasons for Toney's attitude. But Marcus Peters comes to mind... (Still, one of my favorite memories of the Mahomes era was Peter's seeking out Andy Reid for a hug after the Rams game.)
Tyreek chose to basket catch contested catches meaning he had to take advantage of every inch of separation and vertical leaping ability he was blessed with. As his gifts fade you will see him concentrate on highpointing catches by looking the ball into his hands.
Every time the Chiefs trade for a player I migrate over to their blogs to see their reaction, as this generally gives me an idea of what type of player the Chiefs are getting.
The most popular comment: "Oh great, now he's going to be the next Tyreek Hill."
Watching those 2022 clips, he looks like a receiver who thinks his QB sucks and he isn't getting the ball. He looked like he was giving about 70% effort and might be why he was sent out the door.
This is EXACTLY what I thought both watching that Giants game and re-watching the clips floating around Twitter after the trade.
He seems like he *expects* Jones to miss him while he's wide open and.... that's not great!
We've heard from other WRs who have played with Mahomes say one of the biggest adjustments they had to make was to ALWAYS be ready for the ball because he can sling it anywhere. Assuming that he can correct any attitude problems from NY, (a big assumption to be sure) he's got all the skills to be an absolute STUD in KC.
I'm pretty excited to see what gadget plays they get for him this year, but most excited to see what he can offer us next year and beyond after getting a full offseason of reps with QB1.
Special teams starter? I've got to think that Toub is already sizing him up as a potential return guy. It would give him a spot to make an immediate (potential) impact for the team while he learns the intricacies of the Reid/Mahommes offense.
How is his blocking game? I know not as important as his receiving/YAC talents, but still a pretty important skillset needed in Andy's system.
If he's not the Punt Returner as soon as he's healthy we should riot. I love Skyy as a WR but his experiment at PR should be over. Toney has got some serious juice to be a plus player there and it's not a role you need a million reps to be good at. Either you got it or you don't.
Toney has less than 30 career kick and punt returns combined in both the NFL and NCAA combined. If he is a returner, it will likely come with the same struggles as Skyy because he hasn't really consistently caught punts under pressure in his career.
In reality, the Chiefs just need someone who will catch the ball every time, even if they fair catch it 99% of the time. Just like they don't need to return a KO unless forced to.
I'll take Mahomes with the ball 10 yards further back than a potential muff or penalty putting them 20 yards further back.
This is a great breakdown of "What can he do?" or "How can he be used?" I'm interested in the subtly different questions of "Where does he fit?" or "How does he affect the roster?"
It's very interesting that this move comes off the heels of some ups and downs with our new-look WR room. One week we're asking if they can beat man; another week they're destroying a defense thought to be great.
My layman's assessment of our WR and the long-term plans would be:
- JuJu is starting to look really good; I don't know if he's an elite top-of-the-league WR but he could be a #1-ish type and I would like to keep him especially if the price is right
- MVS is who he is; a useful piece, but I don't really see him breaking out beyond the ups and downs we've seen so far
- Skyy we just need to see on the field
- Mecole is starting to pop a little, but his issues with ball tracking and route running are still present. I can't imagine giving him a big contract.
- Watson is a nice 5th WR but that's it
The obvious role I see for Toney (if healthy) is as a rich man's Mecole replacement on a rookie deal, with some upside to be a homeless man's Tyreek. So I don't see Mecole back.
What's our WR room in 2023?
MVS
Moore
Toney
2 of JuJu / OBJ / high draft pick / outside impact FA
I would say this guarantees Hardman will not be re-signed next year. Somebody will pay him far more than what we will/should so there should be no hard feelings. He'll "graduate" and we'll save money and have a chance at improving the roster spot.
Thanks for this Seth. I don't think attitude will be an issue. If you can't succeed with Reid and Mahomes you are toast as a receiver hoping for a big contract. No one will touch you.
Ultimately I think this is preparing for not re-signing Hardman. Yes he has had a couple of good games, but you still see Mahomes' frustration with route running with him. He is pretty much a gimmick guy at this point. Give him a couple of jet sweeps and an occasional route. Someone will throw a bunch of money at him which I can't see the Chiefs matching.
As for injury, we know hamstrings are the toughest to judge how severe they are. Often an excuse to save face for benching guys or to keep from playing. Unless you're Sammy W. and your hammies are made of paper mache...
Good stuff. I thought the compensation was a touch steep, but looking back, our 3rd and 5th round picks haven't amounted to much in recent years. Do you think this is the end of Hardman's time in kc?
Nice job, Seth. Return on Toney this year will probably be slight. With Reid's notoriously hard to learn playbook, it will take time. I would wonder about seeing him on some jet sweeps or a couple of specific routes for him that he can learn quickly. Also, he returned punts in college -- could be immediately used there? Last, I think he played high school QB and has thrown a few passes in the NFL. Andy is probably already drawing up an option pass for him off of a fake jet sweep...
I went straight from hwat? to hype! with this article. Good trade by Veach, even if it doesn't ultimately work out, I think it's worth a shot and WR is a position of need (that you don't want to be paying market rates for).
I've seen some critique of him not being as fast as you might expect. Can he run away from a corner or safety?
I’m very surprised with your findings. I also thought he was a guy who got caught up in the teams searching for their Tyreek phenomenon. Looks like we have ourselves a dude.
Question, do you worry our staff just hasn’t been able to develop receivers? We’ve had a lot of shots at young receivers and really haven’t had any hits (Hill being the outlier).
Receivers are getting paid now because most teams struggle to draft and develop them. Route running in the NFL is so different from college, it's just hard to know which guys will be capable of picking it up.
And which guys’ egos will allow them to be coached and developed.
I wouldn't say we've taken too many swings at the position.
Moore - 2nd
Powell - 5th
Hardman - 2nd
Chesson - 4th
Robinson - 4th; Hill 5th
Conley - 3rd
That's 7 total picks in the 10 drafts the Chiefs have had since Reid came onboard. Only 3 of those taken in the first 3 rounds. Hardman's productivity is constantly underappreciated among the fanbase and his learning curve was always expected to be steep given his offense in college. Moore's still new. Conley just fell victim to the biggest problem he had coming out of the draft; slow feet. He couldn't get separation because he was a strider with pretty mediocre burst out of his cuts. That was just a failed pick, IMO - he lacked a key trait to succeed in this offense.
Now Moore's an important one, though. He needs to be develop into a solid complementary receiver. If he doesn't, you've got some concerns there. But the reason the Chiefs haven't developed a lot of young WR talent recently is that they haven't tried terribly hard to acquire it.
Well said. I'll die (metaphorically of course) on the hill where a handful of fans/analysts contend that Hardman, for all his limitations, has outperformed his draft position. Robinson likewise delivered more than your typical pick from late in the 4th round.
There are fewer than 32 dominant WR who can play on the outside, consistently beat press-man coverage, and effectively find open space vs zone coverage. There's a reason why these guys get paid what they do, and it's not realistic to think these types of receivers can be developed as if from an assembly line.
That said, I'd also agree with the idea that every receiver who plays with/for Mahomes/Reid should outperform his draft status if he works hard enough and avoids serious injury. So I'm still optimistic about what Moore will do in this offense.
I was deeply surprised at the variety of skillset he demonstrated when on the field.
I think it's going to be ALL about health and attitude for him. Because the physical skillset is exceptional in terms not just of quickness, but a lot of other things that help WR's succeed.
IDK if I'm worried about that honestly. Robinson, Pringle, Conley etc all looked their best here. I think it's a matter of investment. Hardman was always a specific skillset reach and a tough out to develop into a great all-around receiver.
It might be too much to hope that he hits his ceiling, but if he does, he'll be a genuinely elite WR. Probably take a couple years, if it does happen.
Even 80 to 90 percent of his ceiling would be a good WR with a valuable skillset!
Seth did you sleep last night? Great breakdown and I agree with your take on RGR that this is probably a move for the future more than this year.
Heh, I did not sleep a ton lol.
Loved your breakdown on RGR, also. It was funny when you were getting ready to leave a couple of times but still sat down with your coat on. lol Love your film reviews, they make it easier for me to understand the plays. Been watching and following the Chiefs since I was a kid, which means a very long time ago.
I really appreciate the kind words Cathy!
I haven't gotten to read the full article yet, so maybe you've mentioned this already, but I've heard a lot of people calling Toney the next Tyreek Hill and I don't agree. That first clip of him does remind me a lot of Dante Hall tho. He's fast for sure, but not the straight line speed of Hill, and he seems to bounce around like Hall used to do. It reminded me of the Hall punt return against the Broncos
Yes! Now that you mention it he definitely looks Dante Hall-ish in some of those clips. Lordy, wouldn't it be nice to have a "human joystick" who can actually catch passes downfield?
Maybe we have that guy now and maybe we don't. Like it or not, we're gonna find out!
Yeah, I don't agree with the Tyreek comp, but mostly because there IS no Tyreek comp. He's completely unique in that he's the fastest player in the league while also being the quickest player in the league while ALSO having some of the best body control in the league. He's one of the best athletes to ever play in the NFL.
I think Hall is a better comparison in terms of quickness/speed traits, it's just that Toney is built bigger and flashes better ball skills (IN THEORY, don't want to get anyone too excited haha).
A couple of comments...
First I watched that 40 yd sideline catch closeup and it was insane what he had to work through to make the catch. He had the defender up high but going down as the wave of body was rolling in to take him out.
The evolution of Tyreek's transition to WR took a couple of years though Toney has some experience and a head start, as he is a WR. Still, seasoned pros MVS and Ju-Ju are just now settling in with Mahomes. Playoff surprise?
It didn't get much air time but Tyreek's toughness jumped off the screen for me. He took a lot of big boy hits, often winning. He also prepped incredibly well fir those hits. I hope Toney understands the KC trainers are his BFF.
I like to think you just documented the reasons for Toney's attitude. But Marcus Peters comes to mind... (Still, one of my favorite memories of the Mahomes era was Peter's seeking out Andy Reid for a hug after the Rams game.)
As always Seth, nice job.
Tyreek was so tough. Not just bracing for contact but winning 50-50 balls. I hope Toney stays healthy so we can enjoy all of his talent.
Yeah, Tyreek wasn't great at contested catches, but he was FAR better than anyone else at his height at winning contested balls.
Tyreek chose to basket catch contested catches meaning he had to take advantage of every inch of separation and vertical leaping ability he was blessed with. As his gifts fade you will see him concentrate on highpointing catches by looking the ball into his hands.
Hopefully Kadarius catches with his hands and highpoints right now. Not sure but we will find out soon
All good thoughts, Tyreek's toughness is an underrated aspect to his game.
And yes, Andy has shown he can work with tough personalities. And Mahomes/Kelce/etc create an excellent locker room.
Every time the Chiefs trade for a player I migrate over to their blogs to see their reaction, as this generally gives me an idea of what type of player the Chiefs are getting.
The most popular comment: "Oh great, now he's going to be the next Tyreek Hill."
Well, I don't hate that hahaha.
Watching those 2022 clips, he looks like a receiver who thinks his QB sucks and he isn't getting the ball. He looked like he was giving about 70% effort and might be why he was sent out the door.
This is EXACTLY what I thought both watching that Giants game and re-watching the clips floating around Twitter after the trade.
He seems like he *expects* Jones to miss him while he's wide open and.... that's not great!
We've heard from other WRs who have played with Mahomes say one of the biggest adjustments they had to make was to ALWAYS be ready for the ball because he can sling it anywhere. Assuming that he can correct any attitude problems from NY, (a big assumption to be sure) he's got all the skills to be an absolute STUD in KC.
I'm pretty excited to see what gadget plays they get for him this year, but most excited to see what he can offer us next year and beyond after getting a full offseason of reps with QB1.
If playing with #15 doesn't get him properly focused it's hard to imagine what would!
I think you're exactly right tbh. Not ideal to be sure, you want guys who aren't going to mail it in, but you can see why frustration was there.
Couple of questions:
Special teams starter? I've got to think that Toub is already sizing him up as a potential return guy. It would give him a spot to make an immediate (potential) impact for the team while he learns the intricacies of the Reid/Mahommes offense.
How is his blocking game? I know not as important as his receiving/YAC talents, but still a pretty important skillset needed in Andy's system.
If he's not the Punt Returner as soon as he's healthy we should riot. I love Skyy as a WR but his experiment at PR should be over. Toney has got some serious juice to be a plus player there and it's not a role you need a million reps to be good at. Either you got it or you don't.
Toney has less than 30 career kick and punt returns combined in both the NFL and NCAA combined. If he is a returner, it will likely come with the same struggles as Skyy because he hasn't really consistently caught punts under pressure in his career.
In reality, the Chiefs just need someone who will catch the ball every time, even if they fair catch it 99% of the time. Just like they don't need to return a KO unless forced to.
I'll take Mahomes with the ball 10 yards further back than a potential muff or penalty putting them 20 yards further back.
Yep! This!
This is a great breakdown of "What can he do?" or "How can he be used?" I'm interested in the subtly different questions of "Where does he fit?" or "How does he affect the roster?"
It's very interesting that this move comes off the heels of some ups and downs with our new-look WR room. One week we're asking if they can beat man; another week they're destroying a defense thought to be great.
My layman's assessment of our WR and the long-term plans would be:
- JuJu is starting to look really good; I don't know if he's an elite top-of-the-league WR but he could be a #1-ish type and I would like to keep him especially if the price is right
- MVS is who he is; a useful piece, but I don't really see him breaking out beyond the ups and downs we've seen so far
- Skyy we just need to see on the field
- Mecole is starting to pop a little, but his issues with ball tracking and route running are still present. I can't imagine giving him a big contract.
- Watson is a nice 5th WR but that's it
The obvious role I see for Toney (if healthy) is as a rich man's Mecole replacement on a rookie deal, with some upside to be a homeless man's Tyreek. So I don't see Mecole back.
What's our WR room in 2023?
MVS
Moore
Toney
2 of JuJu / OBJ / high draft pick / outside impact FA
1 of Ross / Watson / other project
Totally agree. This gives us an excellent alternative to paying Mecole the market rate for a high-ceiling WR on his 2nd contract (i.e. the MVS deal).
I would say this guarantees Hardman will not be re-signed next year. Somebody will pay him far more than what we will/should so there should be no hard feelings. He'll "graduate" and we'll save money and have a chance at improving the roster spot.
Thanks for this Seth. I don't think attitude will be an issue. If you can't succeed with Reid and Mahomes you are toast as a receiver hoping for a big contract. No one will touch you.
Ultimately I think this is preparing for not re-signing Hardman. Yes he has had a couple of good games, but you still see Mahomes' frustration with route running with him. He is pretty much a gimmick guy at this point. Give him a couple of jet sweeps and an occasional route. Someone will throw a bunch of money at him which I can't see the Chiefs matching.
As for injury, we know hamstrings are the toughest to judge how severe they are. Often an excuse to save face for benching guys or to keep from playing. Unless you're Sammy W. and your hammies are made of paper mache...
Sammies Hammies will be so glad when he retires, lol.
Also... he should open up a Sandwich shop or something after he retires and call it that.
Thank you for the fast review! I appreciate the extra sacrifice to get this done. Your eye for what is important is impressive. Great work Seth!
Good stuff. I thought the compensation was a touch steep, but looking back, our 3rd and 5th round picks haven't amounted to much in recent years. Do you think this is the end of Hardman's time in kc?
Hopeful…
Nice job, Seth. Return on Toney this year will probably be slight. With Reid's notoriously hard to learn playbook, it will take time. I would wonder about seeing him on some jet sweeps or a couple of specific routes for him that he can learn quickly. Also, he returned punts in college -- could be immediately used there? Last, I think he played high school QB and has thrown a few passes in the NFL. Andy is probably already drawing up an option pass for him off of a fake jet sweep...
I went straight from hwat? to hype! with this article. Good trade by Veach, even if it doesn't ultimately work out, I think it's worth a shot and WR is a position of need (that you don't want to be paying market rates for).
I've seen some critique of him not being as fast as you might expect. Can he run away from a corner or safety?
He ran sub-4.4, so he CAN. But I think he looks slower than you'd expect because he has more wasted side-to-side movement than other speed-first guys.
Probably, I'm also used to watching Tyreek out there.
Seth - holy cow you got to that FAST! Stay aggressive, my friend.