Kadarius Toney is Chief. What does his skillset look like on film, and how does he fit in?

Examining multiple games from 2021 and the speedy WR's limited 2022 snaps to see where he wins, where he needs to improve, and what the possibilities are in KC this season and beyond.

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I can honestly say that, of all the moves I thought the Chiefs might make, trading for Kadarius Toney was not one that I was expecting. But I should have.

The second-year wideout has all the hallmarks of a Brett Veach special. Former first round pick. Unique physical gifts. Placed in a situation where success was… let’s say a little bit difficult. It was easy to see in hindsight.

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BREAKING: Chiefs trade for Giants WR Kadarius Toney. (via @TomPelissero)

Almost as soon as the trade was completed people started talking about the “why.” After all, Kansas City’s offense has been generally rolling this season, and Toney has had some struggles with health and consistently producing in his short career. However, the fact that he’s only in the second year of a 4-year rookie contract (with a 5th year option available) makes him a cost-controlled option for multiple seasons, combined with the skillset that made him a first round pick barely over a year ago, was too tempting for Brett Veach to pass up.

For me, the first thing I wanted to know when the trade was competed was simple; Who is Kadarius Toney on film? As most of you know, I’m not a draftnik, and don’t follow college football, so outside of a few dozen prospects every year I’m in the dark in terms of what they bring to the table on film. And so I came into today knowing next to nothing about Toney as a pro.

Toney has barely played in 2022, but did have plenty of snaps in Week 1 to at least provide an idea of who he is. And in 2021 he saw a great deal more of the field despite having some lingering injuries. And so, to the film I went to try and decipher where Toney has shown he can win as a pro, where he needs work, and where I think he fits in for the Chiefs. I reviewed the 3 games he saw the most targets in 2021 (New Orleans, Dallas, and Tampa Bay) along with his Week 1 snaps from 2022.

And let me tell you… I’m intrigued. Because the list of players who can do this with a simple slant is…, well, it’s not long.

Let’s talk about Toney’s film, what it means to create yards and where that matters for the Chiefs in 2022, and whether he shows the ability to be a larger-role player than he’s been so far in his career. We’ll start with where he wins.

Where Toney Wins

The first thing about Toney that jumps off the screen when looking at film is that he’s a unique mover. I don’t mean that just in the sense that he’s got good quickness and good speed (though he does). What I mean more is that Toney has a strange combination of body control and flexibility to go along with his quickness that causes him to look genuinely unique with the way he moves. It’s not a matter of just how fast his cuts are, but the way he can cut from almost any stance or angle.

And that comes through most obviously with the ball in his hands, where he is genuinely electric.

The very best trait Toney has shown at the pro level, and what appears to be a genuinely elite trait, is yardage creation after the catch. By yardage creation, I’m talking about the ability to gain more yards than other players would in a similar situation.

The first two video clips are excellent examples of how his unique movement skills contribute to this. Toney is legitimately a threat to alter his direction at any moment, regardless of where he’s at in his steps. Most players need to plant to change direction, whereas Toney operates with a different set of rules. This, combined with the fact that he’s stronger than he’s given credit for (at a little under 6’0” and 190-ish pounds, he’s built thicker than many shifty receivers) allows him to maximize yardage every time he has the ball. We’ll come back to this in the “how he fits” portion, but let’s talk about other areas Toney wins as a receiver besides yards after catch.

Toney’s unique movement ability translates on his routes, albeit with a certain lack of consistency. His ability to change direction instantly from anywhere, as well as start/stop on a dime, provides him with the natural tools to separate quickly on his breaks.

Note that Toney’s cut inside it quite sudden and he gets moving in another direction quickly, but that’s not what makes this so difficult to defend. Look at the positioning of his legs when he starts his cut inside. Most players would need to plant their outside foot and push off to go there, which is what the defender is looking for in terms of what to mirror. Instead, Toney starts his cut AS HIS OUTSIDE LEG IS PLANTING.

It’s a bizarre way to cut, and it throws the timing off completely in a way that takes the defender by surprise. That allows Toney to separate easily even though the cut isn’t that much quicker than what you’d expect from a receiver on a quick in-breaking route. Again, it’s a weird movement that requires flexibility and balance along with quickness, and it’s not the sort of thing defenders can prepare for (because no one else really cuts like that).

Toney’s flexibility, balance, and quickness aren’t limited to quick in-and-out-breaking routes in the shallow portion of the field. They serve him well when running various iterations of stops/curls/comebacks down the field. He’s able to go from a full-out sprint to turning and coming back towards the quarterback very quickly and can do it (similar to his shorter route cuts) at moments receivers generally don’t. That makes him dangerous to “cheat” against deep, as he’s able to stop moving down the field at a moment’s notice.

Toney’s ability to change direction isn’t limited to situations where he’s free of contact. While he didn’t show a lot against press (we’ll talk about that more shortly), Toney did show the ability to fight through contact on his breaks and utilize his unique body control to twist/turn/cut into creating separation that causes defenders trying to stay in his hip pocket to get lost or even fall.

This isn’t the first, second, or third time a defender ended up on the ground trying to stick with Toney through his routes, as his odd timing throws them off and puts them in awkward positions they’re unable to follow through with the way he can. The fact that he’s able to maintain some of that ability through contact is a major foundational piece for consistent route running against physical coverage. He needs to fine-tune his hand usage and timing in those situations (as well as his setup moves), but the raw materials to leave defenders completely bewildered is rare.

Still another area (frankly, Toney’s tape contained more “how he wins” portions than I expected) Toney shows a significant skillset that could potentially point towards more consistency as a receiver is ball skills. While Toney isn’t a big receiver, he’s not afraid of contact at the catch point and shows the ability to track, adjust to, and come down with the ball. That includes routes down the field, which is (as I’ve talked about before with regards to MVS) what separates genuine deep threats from fast guys.

The entire context on this deep completion is important to realize how impressive a play it is. Toney utilizes an out and up to gain separation from the corner. Note that he’s able to largely maintain speed through the cuts on the play and as he turns to locate the ball. Unfortunately, it’s vastly underthrown rather than being put in front of him.

Toney sees this and comes back for the ball, adjusting to it mid-flight and dealing with the cornerback catching up and making contact with him prior to the ball arriving. He watches it all the way in and even makes a last-second adjustment to snag it over the top of the corner (who has lost his footing trying to adjust). It’s a next-level play that a lot of fast players wouldn’t be able to make.

It’s in Toney’s ball skills and ability to fight through contact on breaks that give me hope that he’s more than a gadget player or YAC machine who needs to have touches manufactured. Rather, he appears to have the foundations of a guy who can create separation on his own. His best game in terms of demonstrating how he can utilize his physical gifts for traditional routes was against Tampa Bay in 2021 (despite his zillion yards against the Cowboys).

Here, you can see a combination of Toney’s explosion off the line, quickness and “jittery” cuts that cause problems for defenders, his ability to make his cuts at weird angles, fighting off contact at the stem of the route, and collecting a catch through contact from the defender (his hands, while not always consistent, are definitely strong and capable of snatching the ball out of the air rather than being a body catcher). I also really like the way he starts to work his way back towards the quarterback here rather than staying passive on the route.

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Another interesting trait Toney shows is the “second play.” He’s very active when plays break down, searching for open space down the field or trying to create a lane for the quarterback to throw to. He’s a scramble drill guy from all appearances, and that ought to serve him well with the Chiefs in theory combined with his other traits.

When Toney puts together his considerable physical gifts with a well-run route, the results are absolutely gorgeous to watch.

This is the “ceiling” route for Toney, where he demonstrates just how lethal it can all look when it’s put together. He’s essentially running a whip route down the field, which is a bizarre thing to say because it’s simply not very common. Most receivers can’t make this sort of cut once they’ve gotten momentum down the field. Toney does it well, and he times it beautifully for when he’s entered the corner’s blind spot. The combination of the unique cut and his own natural quickness/acceleration makes for great separation and an easy pitch and catch.

In short, Toney wins in multiple ways that take advantage of his unique physical gifts. He shows the foundations of being able to create separation on his own thanks to them, and has a style of his own that’s tough to defend. And that’s before one starts talking about his undeniably high-level ability to manufacture yards out of thin air with the ball in his hands.

Where Toney Needs Work

Of course, if all that one could say about Toney was what we just talked about, it seems impossible to believe that he’d have been available regardless of personality stuff or clashes with the current regime in New York. And the fact is that although Toney shows a lot of flashes of the ability to do “regular” receiver stuff at a high level and has great physical tools, there’s work to be done.

The biggest issue Toney has with routes are that his “strange” style of movement can become a crutch if it’s utilized too frequently. Toney’s movements can get too big and too often, allowing a cornerback with patient feet and who trusts his own acceleration to simply wait him out. He also doesn’t consistently show patience in when he makes his breaks, starting a series of moves before he’s closed all the space between himself and the corner. That lessens the effectiveness of fakes and gives corners time to recover.

Problems like this are not uncommon for players who are gifted enough to win without honing route running skills. Toney has had touches manufactured for him his entire life as a receiver due to his YAC skills, and his natural athleticism has bought him enough separation that he hasn’t really needed to refine his routes. Of course, at the NFL level talent alone isn’t enough. The corners are too strong, too quick, and too skilled to beat consistently. And so his willingness to work at those things will be crucial to go from “flashes” to consistency.

Toney also doesn’t have refined releases at this point and hasn’t proven he can consistently break free from press coverage. While his handling of contact once he’s on his routes is encouraging and he shows the natural strength and flexibility to bend through/around press coverage, he can get caught up at the line by a strong cornerback who has the feet to mirror that first cut. He’ll need to work on his hands in those moments and show he can release with a plan that isn’t “I’m just quicker so I win.”

Any analysis of Toney’s time with the Giants absolutely has to note that his production with them, even when he was on the field, was touch and go. Of course, an optimist (from a Chiefs’ fan perspective at least) would point out that there were plenty of times Toney was doing HIS part, but was simply missed.

Seth Keysor @RealMNchiefsfan

Presented without comment.

A review of 2022’s Week 1 (check out the thread in the tweet above) showed multiple big yardage opportunities where Toney was simply missed by Jones. That at least partly explains the issues there, as his tape in Week 1 at least looked identical to what he was doing in 2021.

However, the biggest “negatives” surrounding Toney are the 2 that are unknown at this point, at least in KC; Health and attitude. Toney’s… issues with the Giants over the last season have been well-documented, and while the Giants were hardly a model franchise it’s telling that they now (with a well-respected HC and OC in place) have already determined they’ve had enough despite Toney’s considerable gifts. If that’s not a learning experience for Toney, there’s every chance that he’ll have similar issues as soon as things get tough in Kansas City (or he gets corrected loudly by Reid, Eric B, or Mahomes). And that’s, of course, assuming the injury issues that have plagued him thus far were more flukes than consistent issues. Both are unknowns, but both are very real.

Where does Toney fit in 2022 and beyond?

Toney’s 2022 fit is fascinating for the Chiefs. Reid’s offense is tough to pick up, and fans should temper their expectations on a player who needs development being a full-time guy.

That said, Toney (in theory) brings a trait that the offense has needed more of; The ability to create yardage where others could not. That is arguably the piece of Tyreek Hill’s game the Chiefs have missed the most this season. While they still had two of the best yardage creators in the league in Mahomes and Kelce, having a third is part of what made their offensive floor so high the last several years. They were almost guaranteed to get one or two sparkplug plays a game from Hill, even if other stuff wasn’t working.

One thing we know about Toney RIGHT NOW is that he’s capable of creating yards. With the Chiefs’ offense showing it can be highly efficient (and with a very high ceiling) without him, his biggest contribution immediately could be as a guy who grabs an extra first down where other could not. And that alone would make a big difference in games things aren’t going well.

For the future, though, that will depend entirely on Toney. Frankly, the talent he has was more impressive than I expected (I thought he’d be a typical small, quick guy and didn’t anticipate his unique movement skills, strength, and ball skills), and there’s absolutely no reason he shouldn’t develop into a very good overall WR… but that will take humility and a great deal of work. Generally the latter is impossible without the former, and his time in New York didn’t reflect much of either.

That said, it’s almost impossible to get genuinely rare talent on a cheap rookie deal without spending a first round pick. After looking at what Toney is capable of, I can see very much why Veach/Reid jumped at the chance to acquire him. He’s a future investment with the potential to also help plug a hole this year, even in a smaller role.

And for everything else, we know how Pat feels about it.

Patrick Mahomes II @PatrickMahomes