He was one of my absolute favorites of the draft last year. I'm still kind of shocked we got him for peanuts (in my opinion). One year removed from being a 1st round pick and we give up a compensatory 3rd (read 4th) and a 6th is an unbelievable value.
First off, I agree with your take that he's a great value and it's super exciting to think of what he can possibly do from here. In that context, I am sorry that you are going to take the brunt of me railing against one of my pet peeves.
The compensatory 3rd is still a 3rd. These compensatory picks have been around for a long time and will continue to be around. Just because a pick is early or late in a round doesn't mean it's "really" in an earlier or later round. Like when people said CEH wasn't a 1st rounder, he was basically an early 2nd...does that mean early 2nds are basically late 1sts? If we're factoring in compensatory picks and calling late 3rds basically 4ths, does that mean 4ths are 5ths and on down the line?
Yea, except it takes place after all 32 teams take their actual 3rd round pick. If the compensatory picks took place BEFORE the regularly scheduled 3rd round picks, I'd agree with you. They don't. They take place AFTER the regularly scheduled 3rd round picks. Does the pick have value? Absolutely. Does it have more value than a 1st round pick the previous year? No.
But, again, my point is that the rounds after rounds 1-2 just have more picks. It's been that way for a while and will continue to be that way. The pick being later than 32 in the 3rd doesn't make it "basically a 4th" --- that's just what a late 3rd is.
If that's the case, then depends on which chart you're looking at. I just don't see the point in saying that things are something that they are not. And it always goes one direction --- we downgrade the pick when we're trading it away, if we traded a player for that pick it I doubt we would be saying it's a round later than it actually is.
As proof of this, we got a conditional 7th for Fenton which I assume it might not end up being anything at all (I haven't seen the conditions, but usually the "conditional" value is the max possible value), but I haven't seen anyone say it's basically nothing, and in that case it would be closer to correct since it might actually be nothing.
Doesn't matter which chart you're looking at. A Compensatory 3rd is like a "3rd minus".
If we'd traded for a compensatory 3rd, I would still think it was a 3rd minus, or a "4th plus" from Dom's perspective. And I agree that the conditional 7th is "basically nothing, unless Fenton plays regular snaps".
Disagree with a couple things here. Bigger difference between late firsts and early seconds than 3rds and 4ths because the 5th year option gives you an extra year of control. Secondly not only is the compensatory pick outside the normal third round rotation if teams, but it’s not even in the top 100 which is where most draft guys draw the line of being able to reliably find first year starters. That’s why it really acts more like a 4th than a third.
But compensatory picks have been involved for years...early 4ths have not been Top 100 picks in forever. That should be part of the calculus, that Rounds 3-7 are longer than Rounds 1-2.
Here's an analogy: just because February is shorter than the other months doesn't mean March 1st or 2nd is "basically in February."
If one wants to emphasize it's a late 3rd, or in the compensatory portion, or call it a "3rd minus" I'm cool with all of that. But saying it's "basically" in a round which it literally isn't in is stupid!
That's the difference between "basically" and "literally," is what I'd argue (for purposes of argument that is).
Additionally, it's also worth noting that compensatory picks are guaranteed to be close to dead last in the round, as opposed to being subject to record, so the difference there matters as well.
I do understand how such phrasing can be a pet peeve though!
An early fourth? When would you normally receive a compensatory 4th that was that the start of the round?
If no "extra" picks are given, there are 32 picks per round. When a compensatory 3rd is given, it's pick 97. Pick 97, if there are no other "extra picks" is the first pick of the 4th round. It is essentially a 4th round pick.
Well sure, no one is adding days to months haphazardly year over year. It's not like sometimes February has 31 days, sometimes 28, sometimes 30... there is a very predictable pattern to how the calendar behaves. The draft does not behave in this way.
Heh, I think this is an issue of definition is all! If one views the draft in terms of 32 teams, etc, I get where people are at in terms of it being traditionally a 4th round pick once one is at pick 65 and beyond. BUT I also get that it's technically the 3rd round haha.
He's a lot like Tyreek Hill as a player and - I suspect - as a person. Recall, Hill was a bit of a problem child coming into the league, due to off-the-field concerns. He wasn't a bad guy, but he could get sucked into negative situations by the influence of toxic people around him. He wasn't by nature a bad guy, but he did some bad things, out of anger, because of a sharp-tongued woman, who expertly pushed his buttons.
I think the Chiefs got both of them into therapy, and kept a close eye on Tyreek for a few years. One of the things KC started doing differently when Clark Hunt took over was they expanded their staff, dramatically. When they have a special need or circumstance, they're not afraid to hire somebody. So guys like Hill and Toney can and do get a lot of individual attention.
Clark wants to win over the long term more than he wants to maximize his profits in the short term. And the salary cap doesn't apply to coaches or staff. I think that his strategy is also very good for long-term profits.
Think about it. Home playoff games are extra $$$. Home field advantage throughout the playoffs is extra $$$. Advancing to the SB is extra $$$. Winning lends your team a mystique. Teams with mystique have a better draw for UDFAs, FAs and trades. Players WANT to join winning organizations, so KC is getting some good vets (and UDFAs) for some pretty reasonable money.
Look how well Dunlap is playing. His deal isn't that rich.
Bill Belichick had that mystique for years. That's how he brought in so many hired-gun receivers at such good prices over the years. Randy Moss was a bargain. I don't think any other team could've gotten that contract at that time.
It's kind of the same for undrafted (rookie) free agents. It's a privilege to be drafted, but players who are not drafted have a lot of freedom to decide where they want to try out. I think Tershawn Wharton and Jody Fortson were UDFAs. Donte Stallworth and Malik Herring might be UDFAs, too.
I remember the days of Pioli and Peterson as GMs, and they never got UDFAs with very high athletic matrices, and they had to pay top dollar to get any top vets in free agency. Of course, ALL teams pay a premium for top vets in FA, but some teams - the ones with questionable reputations - pay a bigger premium.
He is young, and plays with abandon. He needs to adjust that style of play a bit to take care of his body. The best ability is availability as is often said.
I was commenting about the injury RP(Jets), But after a day, of poking around I couldn't find any detail on that either. So there must be some Hokey Pokey back east. What are the Jets doing/thinking becomes the point. I really this he adds a powerful dimension to the Chiefs aerial game.
That first gif was my favorite play of the day. Not the best angle because its difficult to fully appreciate how Toney was sealed in with nowhere to go but then absolutely ghosted those two Jags defenders! 🔥🏈💯
Right! I commented before reading any further because I was excited you included it because none of the shorter game clips did. 1st round talent for a song! I like how NFL put it... The rest of the NFL just sat there and let the Chiefs pick up Kadarius Toney. 😂
Pat on the back for Brett Veach on this one. He's taken some swings on some former first rounders (Ragland, Erving, Baker) and this one seems to have the highest chance of paying off. Well done.
Wasn't one of the "issues" with Toney coming out of college that he had a higher-than-ideal drop rate? Per PFF, he was only slightly worse than average last year for WRs with 50+ targets (7.7% drop rate vs. 6.4% average), but I'm not sure what the sample size has to be in order to get relevant data. He's dynamic enough that you don't worry about a few dropped passes, and the sample size is definitely small, but I have to wonder if this is an actual issue that he might need to work on.
How you're getting the ball to a guy makes a difference. Dwayne Bowe had a high drop rate, because they fed him the ball, whether it was a good idea or not. His last couple of seasons were his most efficient, but his targets were down.
People wanted to get rid of him and I just thought "This is the possession receiver / chain-mover he was built to be." Bowe was top 5 best in lowest drop rate his last couple of seasons, which, to me, was game-winning football, but all most people noticed were his bulk statistics, which were lower.
He ran his routes with more conviction those last couple of years. When they were force-feeding him, there were lots of miscommunications. He sort of just tried to wrong-foot his defender and time his breaks so he'd zig when they zagged. It would open up a window, but the timing/depth of that window depended on how each snap played out. And lack of speed meant those windows slammed shut pretty quickly. That was why Cassel would tunnel-vision on Bowe. He had to wait until Bowe broke, and then rifle it in. Really hard to anticipate.
So was Jamaal Charles on WR-ish routes. I don't think he got to the same spots during actual games that he got to in practice. Practice conditions tend to be better conditions, and I think the KC secondary gave him cleaner paths to his spot.
Anyway, that's my theory. I always got the impression that Cassel was throwing based on practices OR Cassel just had more adrenalin pumping during games, which can add juice to passes. Also, adrenalin messes with your fine motor control. I leaned towards inconsistent route running because Jamaal lacked WR skills and had to really work his way up to catching passes in stride.
I could go on (Please don't) about Bowe and Charles, but this offense has the flexibility to play to Toney's strengths and not force things. Watching him climb the ladder in front of two defenders, Sunday, says he's pretty special. Hill kept his feet and adjusted well to the ball in the air, but he always tried to put his chest on the ball, and gather it in, instead of snatching it with his hands.
That one grab says Toney can high-point exceptionally well.
There are games against really good defenses where if you don't have some mistakes and miscues, you're not trying hard enough. We remember the picks Josh Allen throws, but if he doesn't press, that offense of his isn't going to produce many points.
Just as it's important for an NFL organization to believe in a player, so to is it important for the player to believe in the organization. Reid, Veach, and Mahomes have made KC into a destination spot for young players to grow and blossom. Toney "couldn't get on the field" in NY and many might have jumped to the conclusion that it could be because he is a selfish player. To see him immediately get on the field in KC and track deep balls, block hard downfield, and put in the work to do the little things right shows he and the team have mutual trust, and because of that he will be willing to work hard for team success. He knows that if he does so he will reap the benefits individually as well.
One of the initial things he said during his first presser was, "It feels good to be wanted by a team." That sentiment should not be overlooked. The Chiefs have created a positive culture that attracts top end talent from all angles, and it's a beautiful and rare thing to have players wanting to come to Kansas City to play with the best.
That being said, Toney has a long way to go, but so far it's a great start. His ceiling is sky high, and the Chiefs may have, once again, gotten a steal.
And the Chiefs rewarded his early efforts with several targets Sunday. That should encourage him to work all the harder this week. Even JuJu who stated last year that he would like to return to the Steelers has now seemingly switched preference to us (although I am suspicious we will not be able to afford him).
The level of play they're getting from their rookies this year, is good for their salary cap for several years to come. Good production from rookie contracts is going to make some better offers possible. Juju doesn't have the speed to prosper anywhere he goes. He's a fantastic complementary/possession receiver. So's Justin Watson. Without team speed to create the openings for those guys, they're not going to be as effective as they are in KC.
He VERY clearly has something to prove. That, of course, could still go along with him being a knucklehead and now seeing how quickly stuff can fall apart in the league. But at the same time it shows that he can be reached in the right scenario (which you said, just much better than I did hahaha).
I'm sure they impressed on him that the goal is team success, not individual stats or accolades. As you say, those come from contributing to team success. "Block this one up right and we move the chains. If we move the chains, that's a fresh set of downs, and more target opportunities for YOU."
Toney has been as good as I was hoping he would be through 2 games. I'm glad you mentioned the all-out effort we're seeing away from the ball and blocking. I love his energy and the power and balance he's running with -- that was a different dimension that definitely will pay off for him on arm tackles.
I really like how fluid and effortless he makes on these YAC plays - his field vision for making people miss is impressive. Can't wait to see how they meld him more into the passing game. :)
A few weeks ago in this space I tried to project the Chiefs' WR room going forward. I feel like that's been completely upended.
Contract-wise, you're obviously keeping:
- Toney
- Moore
Under contract but plausibly able to be released without too much of a hit you have:
- MVS
FAs to be:
- JuJu
- Mecole
- Watson
At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, I already believe in Toney. His college tape, what he flashed with the Giants, what he's done in just two games here, and the circumstances explaining his lack of production in NY --- it all fits with an excellent player where the only concern is health.
So my dream (but plausible) 2023 WR Room is:
- Toney
- Moore
- resign JuJu
- go after OBJ / best available FA
- Ross (optimistic, yes, but as WR5 why not)
- resign Watson or some comparable roster-churning type
Yes, I'd cut MVS for cap space and go after OBJ or some other big FA. I don't know who is available, perhaps if you can't get OBJ or otherwise upgrade you don't get rid of MVS. Because of Toney I think we don't need to try to trade up for a top-end WR in the draft now.
OBJ is too big of a risk for the money he'll want. TWO ACL's on the same leg in 2 years - no thanks. Mecole will be gone because he'll get paid more than we'll offer somewhere else and I don't see MVS back (or needed).
More than happy with the rest unless Veach finds another hidden gem. Hopefully that allows him to focus on edge rushers & O-line/tackles in the draft.
I wouldn't sign him either. All the OBJ talk is just StarF***ing. He is the name you know. He averaged 45 yards a game 2 years ago and 38 last year. Next year he will be 30 coming off a second ACL surgery that he is already taking longer than normal to recover from.
All sizzle and no steak, at a high steak price. Someone will overpay for him. I am definitely hoping it is not us.
He has a 3-year contract, but as I understand it there is an easy/cheap out after 2 years and a not-too-pricey one after just this 1 year. So anything is possible.
Basically, cutting him in 2023 would save 7 mil against the cap, in 2024 it would be 12 mil.
So it's highly unlikely to last through the 3rd year. The 2nd year is a question mark and (I think) depends on how he does this year. He's not terribly consistent due to being a guy who doesn't separate on non-deep routes on his own, but he's made some big plays and that's a big deal as a downfield threat.
MVS is just fast enough and quick enough to have a pretty consistent come-back/back-shoulder. He's fast enough to make the corner commit and he's quick enough to slam the brakes and create a window. He doesn't separate at the top of the route.
Next level for him is to be consistent enough at what he's good at to make corners overplay the comeback route, which would give him the stutter-and-go. But yeah. He's not real physical. He's another good complementary receiver, like Juju, but in a different way.
I don't think that's a bad plan at all. I'd add "draft a WR in the first 3 rounds basically every year as long as you have Mahomes" to that list. It's a position that you really want to throw as much talent as possible at.
I would say that MVS, without an obvious upgrade, does have a valuable skillset so I concur that they should be cautious about whether to let him go. I don't believe the FA market is that great for WR's right now.
Lost in Toney's exemplary play yesterday was the medical miracle of Pat curing hamstring issues by his mere existence. If this QB thing doesn't work out, he may have a future in the field of medicine.
Funny how a change in environment can bring out the best in some players! Like Seth pointed out, dude is just happy to be here. Always all smiles(and what a $ smile it is!) during interviews! Watch him after plays where he doesn't get the ball, running over helping teammates up, celebrating their positive with them. So far, on Offensive, this could turn out to be the steal of 2022 for our Chiefs!
Reid is infusing him in the offensive quickly, Mahomes seems to have already developed good chemistry with Toney. Win for everyone!!
I finally saw the video that the meme of Toney was taken from and I love him as a player even more now. Yesterday was an awesome display of him gelling with Pat and the offense as a whole.
Tyreek Hill wasn't TYREEK HILL yet in his second season, though we all could see his potential. I'm just thrilled that we can see that Toney has a chance to become KADARIUS TONEY! In another year or two, we might be pointing out ways that Toney is even better than Hill (his hands, for example) despite being a step slower in pure straight line speed.
The Chiefs needed to bring on another offensive game changer to maintain their championship window, and Toney might actually be that guy. If so, and if he really starts to deliver this year, then we have to put Veach in the conversation for GM of the year honors.
I'd be absolutely, utterly SHOCKED if he ever riches Hill's level tbh. Hill is on track to be a first ballet no-brainer HoF player, and those just aren't guys who come around much. That said, he's got tremendous talent and if he peaks at 90% of what Hill is he'd be a top 15 wide receiver in the league.
The trade has really enhanced Hill's case, and I'm definitely rooting for him (except when he plays the Chiefs). So yeah, it would be wonderfully shocking to have a second HOF receiver playing with Mahomes in his prime.
Nevertheless, it does sometimes happen that teams field a sequence of top players at a position. Green Bay has had some good luck at both QB and WR. Reggie Wayne supplanted Marvin Harrison in Indy, The Steelers seemed to have an assembly line there for awhile. The common denominator, of course, is that these teams had true franchise QBs who could get the most out of WR1 talent. I'm convinced Toney has the physical talent, the reports are good in regards to his football IQ, so I'm going to stay optimistic that he has an All Pro ceiling.
They haven't gotten much out of Skyy Moore, yet. Toney's vaulted past him as a playmaker. I wonder what the hold-up is with Moore. Seems like he's a good complement to the other WRs they have. He's similar to Toney in elusiveness with the ball, but they're not getting him the ball in space.
He was one of my absolute favorites of the draft last year. I'm still kind of shocked we got him for peanuts (in my opinion). One year removed from being a 1st round pick and we give up a compensatory 3rd (read 4th) and a 6th is an unbelievable value.
First off, I agree with your take that he's a great value and it's super exciting to think of what he can possibly do from here. In that context, I am sorry that you are going to take the brunt of me railing against one of my pet peeves.
The compensatory 3rd is still a 3rd. These compensatory picks have been around for a long time and will continue to be around. Just because a pick is early or late in a round doesn't mean it's "really" in an earlier or later round. Like when people said CEH wasn't a 1st rounder, he was basically an early 2nd...does that mean early 2nds are basically late 1sts? If we're factoring in compensatory picks and calling late 3rds basically 4ths, does that mean 4ths are 5ths and on down the line?
Thanks for coming to my TED Talk.
Yea, except it takes place after all 32 teams take their actual 3rd round pick. If the compensatory picks took place BEFORE the regularly scheduled 3rd round picks, I'd agree with you. They don't. They take place AFTER the regularly scheduled 3rd round picks. Does the pick have value? Absolutely. Does it have more value than a 1st round pick the previous year? No.
But, again, my point is that the rounds after rounds 1-2 just have more picks. It's been that way for a while and will continue to be that way. The pick being later than 32 in the 3rd doesn't make it "basically a 4th" --- that's just what a late 3rd is.
I think Dominic's point is, if you're looking at a trade value chart, a compensatory 3rd is closer in value to a high 4th than a mid-3rd.
If that's the case, then depends on which chart you're looking at. I just don't see the point in saying that things are something that they are not. And it always goes one direction --- we downgrade the pick when we're trading it away, if we traded a player for that pick it I doubt we would be saying it's a round later than it actually is.
As proof of this, we got a conditional 7th for Fenton which I assume it might not end up being anything at all (I haven't seen the conditions, but usually the "conditional" value is the max possible value), but I haven't seen anyone say it's basically nothing, and in that case it would be closer to correct since it might actually be nothing.
Doesn't matter which chart you're looking at. A Compensatory 3rd is like a "3rd minus".
If we'd traded for a compensatory 3rd, I would still think it was a 3rd minus, or a "4th plus" from Dom's perspective. And I agree that the conditional 7th is "basically nothing, unless Fenton plays regular snaps".
That Fenton trade is still interesting to me. Felt unnecessary unless he asked for it.
FWIW I did say it was essentially nothing when they did that! :)
Disagree with a couple things here. Bigger difference between late firsts and early seconds than 3rds and 4ths because the 5th year option gives you an extra year of control. Secondly not only is the compensatory pick outside the normal third round rotation if teams, but it’s not even in the top 100 which is where most draft guys draw the line of being able to reliably find first year starters. That’s why it really acts more like a 4th than a third.
This has been my Ted talk 😜
But compensatory picks have been involved for years...early 4ths have not been Top 100 picks in forever. That should be part of the calculus, that Rounds 3-7 are longer than Rounds 1-2.
Here's an analogy: just because February is shorter than the other months doesn't mean March 1st or 2nd is "basically in February."
If one wants to emphasize it's a late 3rd, or in the compensatory portion, or call it a "3rd minus" I'm cool with all of that. But saying it's "basically" in a round which it literally isn't in is stupid!
That's the difference between "basically" and "literally," is what I'd argue (for purposes of argument that is).
Additionally, it's also worth noting that compensatory picks are guaranteed to be close to dead last in the round, as opposed to being subject to record, so the difference there matters as well.
I do understand how such phrasing can be a pet peeve though!
But you would agree the language asymmetric and that we rarely do it the other way, right? No one says an early 4th is "basically" a compensatory 3rd?
An early fourth? When would you normally receive a compensatory 4th that was that the start of the round?
If no "extra" picks are given, there are 32 picks per round. When a compensatory 3rd is given, it's pick 97. Pick 97, if there are no other "extra picks" is the first pick of the 4th round. It is essentially a 4th round pick.
IDK that I've ever seen it phrased the other way, for sure!
Well sure, no one is adding days to months haphazardly year over year. It's not like sometimes February has 31 days, sometimes 28, sometimes 30... there is a very predictable pattern to how the calendar behaves. The draft does not behave in this way.
Heh, I think this is an issue of definition is all! If one views the draft in terms of 32 teams, etc, I get where people are at in terms of it being traditionally a 4th round pick once one is at pick 65 and beyond. BUT I also get that it's technically the 3rd round haha.
He's a lot like Tyreek Hill as a player and - I suspect - as a person. Recall, Hill was a bit of a problem child coming into the league, due to off-the-field concerns. He wasn't a bad guy, but he could get sucked into negative situations by the influence of toxic people around him. He wasn't by nature a bad guy, but he did some bad things, out of anger, because of a sharp-tongued woman, who expertly pushed his buttons.
I think the Chiefs got both of them into therapy, and kept a close eye on Tyreek for a few years. One of the things KC started doing differently when Clark Hunt took over was they expanded their staff, dramatically. When they have a special need or circumstance, they're not afraid to hire somebody. So guys like Hill and Toney can and do get a lot of individual attention.
Clark wants to win over the long term more than he wants to maximize his profits in the short term. And the salary cap doesn't apply to coaches or staff. I think that his strategy is also very good for long-term profits.
Think about it. Home playoff games are extra $$$. Home field advantage throughout the playoffs is extra $$$. Advancing to the SB is extra $$$. Winning lends your team a mystique. Teams with mystique have a better draw for UDFAs, FAs and trades. Players WANT to join winning organizations, so KC is getting some good vets (and UDFAs) for some pretty reasonable money.
Look how well Dunlap is playing. His deal isn't that rich.
Bill Belichick had that mystique for years. That's how he brought in so many hired-gun receivers at such good prices over the years. Randy Moss was a bargain. I don't think any other team could've gotten that contract at that time.
It's kind of the same for undrafted (rookie) free agents. It's a privilege to be drafted, but players who are not drafted have a lot of freedom to decide where they want to try out. I think Tershawn Wharton and Jody Fortson were UDFAs. Donte Stallworth and Malik Herring might be UDFAs, too.
I remember the days of Pioli and Peterson as GMs, and they never got UDFAs with very high athletic matrices, and they had to pay top dollar to get any top vets in free agency. Of course, ALL teams pay a premium for top vets in FA, but some teams - the ones with questionable reputations - pay a bigger premium.
Or don’t even have their calls returned. Manning wouldn’t even talk to Pioli.
He is young, and plays with abandon. He needs to adjust that style of play a bit to take care of his body. The best ability is availability as is often said.
The only hard hit I saw him take was that punt return, which was basically the football embodiment of the Jon Snow vs calavary gif hahaha.
I was commenting about the injury RP(Jets), But after a day, of poking around I couldn't find any detail on that either. So there must be some Hokey Pokey back east. What are the Jets doing/thinking becomes the point. I really this he adds a powerful dimension to the Chiefs aerial game.
Yeeeesh!! I love this guy already!
This guy might be the most fun player to watch with the ball in his hands. I want every play to go to him lol
It definitely creates a buzz the moment he catches the ball.
That first gif was my favorite play of the day. Not the best angle because its difficult to fully appreciate how Toney was sealed in with nowhere to go but then absolutely ghosted those two Jags defenders! 🔥🏈💯
The all-22 captures it very well!
Right! I commented before reading any further because I was excited you included it because none of the shorter game clips did. 1st round talent for a song! I like how NFL put it... The rest of the NFL just sat there and let the Chiefs pick up Kadarius Toney. 😂
hahaha for sure, the NFL just let it happen.
Pat on the back for Brett Veach on this one. He's taken some swings on some former first rounders (Ragland, Erving, Baker) and this one seems to have the highest chance of paying off. Well done.
I'll die on the hill that Ragland and Erving brought some value for their price!
Value for sure but Toney looks like he is going to provide way more value than those two.
Based on overall performance, I was already prepared to forgive Toney for his one dropped pass. This article confirms my judgment. Thanks, Seth!
He wasn't used to that no-look with HEAT.
Wasn't one of the "issues" with Toney coming out of college that he had a higher-than-ideal drop rate? Per PFF, he was only slightly worse than average last year for WRs with 50+ targets (7.7% drop rate vs. 6.4% average), but I'm not sure what the sample size has to be in order to get relevant data. He's dynamic enough that you don't worry about a few dropped passes, and the sample size is definitely small, but I have to wonder if this is an actual issue that he might need to work on.
How you're getting the ball to a guy makes a difference. Dwayne Bowe had a high drop rate, because they fed him the ball, whether it was a good idea or not. His last couple of seasons were his most efficient, but his targets were down.
People wanted to get rid of him and I just thought "This is the possession receiver / chain-mover he was built to be." Bowe was top 5 best in lowest drop rate his last couple of seasons, which, to me, was game-winning football, but all most people noticed were his bulk statistics, which were lower.
He ran his routes with more conviction those last couple of years. When they were force-feeding him, there were lots of miscommunications. He sort of just tried to wrong-foot his defender and time his breaks so he'd zig when they zagged. It would open up a window, but the timing/depth of that window depended on how each snap played out. And lack of speed meant those windows slammed shut pretty quickly. That was why Cassel would tunnel-vision on Bowe. He had to wait until Bowe broke, and then rifle it in. Really hard to anticipate.
So was Jamaal Charles on WR-ish routes. I don't think he got to the same spots during actual games that he got to in practice. Practice conditions tend to be better conditions, and I think the KC secondary gave him cleaner paths to his spot.
Anyway, that's my theory. I always got the impression that Cassel was throwing based on practices OR Cassel just had more adrenalin pumping during games, which can add juice to passes. Also, adrenalin messes with your fine motor control. I leaned towards inconsistent route running because Jamaal lacked WR skills and had to really work his way up to catching passes in stride.
I could go on (Please don't) about Bowe and Charles, but this offense has the flexibility to play to Toney's strengths and not force things. Watching him climb the ladder in front of two defenders, Sunday, says he's pretty special. Hill kept his feet and adjusted well to the ball in the air, but he always tried to put his chest on the ball, and gather it in, instead of snatching it with his hands.
That one grab says Toney can high-point exceptionally well.
There are games against really good defenses where if you don't have some mistakes and miscues, you're not trying hard enough. We remember the picks Josh Allen throws, but if he doesn't press, that offense of his isn't going to produce many points.
SETH! As always stellar. Thanks
Appreciate it Bob!
Just as it's important for an NFL organization to believe in a player, so to is it important for the player to believe in the organization. Reid, Veach, and Mahomes have made KC into a destination spot for young players to grow and blossom. Toney "couldn't get on the field" in NY and many might have jumped to the conclusion that it could be because he is a selfish player. To see him immediately get on the field in KC and track deep balls, block hard downfield, and put in the work to do the little things right shows he and the team have mutual trust, and because of that he will be willing to work hard for team success. He knows that if he does so he will reap the benefits individually as well.
One of the initial things he said during his first presser was, "It feels good to be wanted by a team." That sentiment should not be overlooked. The Chiefs have created a positive culture that attracts top end talent from all angles, and it's a beautiful and rare thing to have players wanting to come to Kansas City to play with the best.
That being said, Toney has a long way to go, but so far it's a great start. His ceiling is sky high, and the Chiefs may have, once again, gotten a steal.
And the Chiefs rewarded his early efforts with several targets Sunday. That should encourage him to work all the harder this week. Even JuJu who stated last year that he would like to return to the Steelers has now seemingly switched preference to us (although I am suspicious we will not be able to afford him).
The level of play they're getting from their rookies this year, is good for their salary cap for several years to come. Good production from rookie contracts is going to make some better offers possible. Juju doesn't have the speed to prosper anywhere he goes. He's a fantastic complementary/possession receiver. So's Justin Watson. Without team speed to create the openings for those guys, they're not going to be as effective as they are in KC.
He VERY clearly has something to prove. That, of course, could still go along with him being a knucklehead and now seeing how quickly stuff can fall apart in the league. But at the same time it shows that he can be reached in the right scenario (which you said, just much better than I did hahaha).
I'm sure they impressed on him that the goal is team success, not individual stats or accolades. As you say, those come from contributing to team success. "Block this one up right and we move the chains. If we move the chains, that's a fresh set of downs, and more target opportunities for YOU."
Toney has been as good as I was hoping he would be through 2 games. I'm glad you mentioned the all-out effort we're seeing away from the ball and blocking. I love his energy and the power and balance he's running with -- that was a different dimension that definitely will pay off for him on arm tackles.
I really like how fluid and effortless he makes on these YAC plays - his field vision for making people miss is impressive. Can't wait to see how they meld him more into the passing game. :)
The energy is palpable from him, he's stoked to be here.
A few weeks ago in this space I tried to project the Chiefs' WR room going forward. I feel like that's been completely upended.
Contract-wise, you're obviously keeping:
- Toney
- Moore
Under contract but plausibly able to be released without too much of a hit you have:
- MVS
FAs to be:
- JuJu
- Mecole
- Watson
At the risk of getting ahead of ourselves, I already believe in Toney. His college tape, what he flashed with the Giants, what he's done in just two games here, and the circumstances explaining his lack of production in NY --- it all fits with an excellent player where the only concern is health.
So my dream (but plausible) 2023 WR Room is:
- Toney
- Moore
- resign JuJu
- go after OBJ / best available FA
- Ross (optimistic, yes, but as WR5 why not)
- resign Watson or some comparable roster-churning type
Yes, I'd cut MVS for cap space and go after OBJ or some other big FA. I don't know who is available, perhaps if you can't get OBJ or otherwise upgrade you don't get rid of MVS. Because of Toney I think we don't need to try to trade up for a top-end WR in the draft now.
JuJu is a keeper (health permitting) and I wouldn’t axe Watson. I doubt Mecole will be here and I’m okay with that. Jury still out on MVS.
OBJ is too big of a risk for the money he'll want. TWO ACL's on the same leg in 2 years - no thanks. Mecole will be gone because he'll get paid more than we'll offer somewhere else and I don't see MVS back (or needed).
More than happy with the rest unless Veach finds another hidden gem. Hopefully that allows him to focus on edge rushers & O-line/tackles in the draft.
I wouldn't sign him either. All the OBJ talk is just StarF***ing. He is the name you know. He averaged 45 yards a game 2 years ago and 38 last year. Next year he will be 30 coming off a second ACL surgery that he is already taking longer than normal to recover from.
All sizzle and no steak, at a high steak price. Someone will overpay for him. I am definitely hoping it is not us.
Thanks for utilizing the self-censoring! I can tell my brand is strong with these comments (seriously, I do appreciate it!).
That's the thing with Odell... because of all the potential bidders, I'm not sure KC even gets in the room there.
I think MVS is on a three year contract. May be pricey to walk this soon.
Didn't realize that; he's a fast big body, so happy to have him on the team.
He has a 3-year contract, but as I understand it there is an easy/cheap out after 2 years and a not-too-pricey one after just this 1 year. So anything is possible.
It's an interesting contract that actually allows for wiggle room. Here's the spotrac link:
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/marquez-valdes-scantling-25275/
Basically, cutting him in 2023 would save 7 mil against the cap, in 2024 it would be 12 mil.
So it's highly unlikely to last through the 3rd year. The 2nd year is a question mark and (I think) depends on how he does this year. He's not terribly consistent due to being a guy who doesn't separate on non-deep routes on his own, but he's made some big plays and that's a big deal as a downfield threat.
MVS is just fast enough and quick enough to have a pretty consistent come-back/back-shoulder. He's fast enough to make the corner commit and he's quick enough to slam the brakes and create a window. He doesn't separate at the top of the route.
Next level for him is to be consistent enough at what he's good at to make corners overplay the comeback route, which would give him the stutter-and-go. But yeah. He's not real physical. He's another good complementary receiver, like Juju, but in a different way.
I don't think that's a bad plan at all. I'd add "draft a WR in the first 3 rounds basically every year as long as you have Mahomes" to that list. It's a position that you really want to throw as much talent as possible at.
I would say that MVS, without an obvious upgrade, does have a valuable skillset so I concur that they should be cautious about whether to let him go. I don't believe the FA market is that great for WR's right now.
Lost in Toney's exemplary play yesterday was the medical miracle of Pat curing hamstring issues by his mere existence. If this QB thing doesn't work out, he may have a future in the field of medicine.
It probably helps that he's no longer training with this guy:
https://twitter.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/1583179413620809728
🤣🤣🤣
As somebody pointed out last week, PM may have introduced him to Jake from State Farm ...
If I could upvote this twice I would. Just what I was going to say, but funnier. 😆
MIRACLES DO HAPPEN! :)
Funny how a change in environment can bring out the best in some players! Like Seth pointed out, dude is just happy to be here. Always all smiles(and what a $ smile it is!) during interviews! Watch him after plays where he doesn't get the ball, running over helping teammates up, celebrating their positive with them. So far, on Offensive, this could turn out to be the steal of 2022 for our Chiefs!
Reid is infusing him in the offensive quickly, Mahomes seems to have already developed good chemistry with Toney. Win for everyone!!
He's feeling free right now for sure. The test will be if he gets some star results. Does he stay hungry?
I finally saw the video that the meme of Toney was taken from and I love him as a player even more now. Yesterday was an awesome display of him gelling with Pat and the offense as a whole.
That meme is hilarious.
Tyreek Hill wasn't TYREEK HILL yet in his second season, though we all could see his potential. I'm just thrilled that we can see that Toney has a chance to become KADARIUS TONEY! In another year or two, we might be pointing out ways that Toney is even better than Hill (his hands, for example) despite being a step slower in pure straight line speed.
The Chiefs needed to bring on another offensive game changer to maintain their championship window, and Toney might actually be that guy. If so, and if he really starts to deliver this year, then we have to put Veach in the conversation for GM of the year honors.
He may even help that Mahomes guy reach his potential! 😉
And wouldn't that be something!
I'd be absolutely, utterly SHOCKED if he ever riches Hill's level tbh. Hill is on track to be a first ballet no-brainer HoF player, and those just aren't guys who come around much. That said, he's got tremendous talent and if he peaks at 90% of what Hill is he'd be a top 15 wide receiver in the league.
The trade has really enhanced Hill's case, and I'm definitely rooting for him (except when he plays the Chiefs). So yeah, it would be wonderfully shocking to have a second HOF receiver playing with Mahomes in his prime.
Nevertheless, it does sometimes happen that teams field a sequence of top players at a position. Green Bay has had some good luck at both QB and WR. Reggie Wayne supplanted Marvin Harrison in Indy, The Steelers seemed to have an assembly line there for awhile. The common denominator, of course, is that these teams had true franchise QBs who could get the most out of WR1 talent. I'm convinced Toney has the physical talent, the reports are good in regards to his football IQ, so I'm going to stay optimistic that he has an All Pro ceiling.
They haven't gotten much out of Skyy Moore, yet. Toney's vaulted past him as a playmaker. I wonder what the hold-up is with Moore. Seems like he's a good complement to the other WRs they have. He's similar to Toney in elusiveness with the ball, but they're not getting him the ball in space.
I wonder how many Giants fans watched that game.....and ate their liver? 😆😅🤣😂
With some Rafa beans and a nice Chianti.
😆😅🤣😂
Fava
LOL