Creating yards and a varied skillset; Kadarius Toney vs the Jaguars

Looking at how the new Chiefs WR affected the game in ways that are obvious and ways that aren't.

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When the Chiefs traded a compensatory 3rd round pick and a 6th round pick for Kadarius Toney, my initial thought was simple; This was either going to be a spectacular success or do basically nothing to move the needle.

Two games into Toney’s career with the Chiefs, signs are certainly pointing towards the former rather than the latter.

Toney touched the ball 7 times (2 carries, 4 catches) for a total of 90 yards against the Jaguars, but as this play demonstrates, statistics don’t necessarily capture the essence of yards gained. There’s a big difference between catching a pass when wide open and waltzing into the end zone untouched (which, to be fair, was what happened on Toney’s first career touchdown) and creating yards basically out of thin air.

Because of that, Toney’s contributions against Jacksonville can’t be completely captured by yards gained or a touchdown scored. On multiple plays, he wasn’t the beneficiary of Mahomes’ greatness or Andy Reid’s scheming, but rather was the primary reason the ball moved down the field. He did so by demonstrating a varied and complex skillset that shows how high the ceiling is for Toney, who isn’t just another gadget player based on his film with the Giants (unlocked if you haven’t seen it, by the way).

Let’s talk about that skillset, where it showed up in ways both obvious and not so obvious, and how Toney helped the Chiefs yesterday.

Let’s start with the obvious sort of yards creation, as that is likely the play everyone will leave the game remembering. Late in the 2nd quarter with the Chiefs looking to make it a three score game, Toney collected a short pass in the flat from Mahomes after a jet sweep fake on 1st and 10. It’s the sort of action they’ve utilized many times before for a few easy yards, and the play always has potential for more if the receiver can make the first defender miss.

If he makes three guys miss? That’s a whole separate story.

Toney demonstrates in his first moment with the ball his surprising strength through contact and balance, which allows him to stay on his feet and barely lose speed while absorbing an attempted tackle. The ability to subtly adjust his body to flow with the contact rather than taking it on directly is something that’s rare, and it results in extra yardage. But Toney wasn’t done yet.

Seth Keysor @RealMNchiefsfan

Best if read right to left. Still not sure how this happened, and keep in mind this is AFTER already shaking one tackler. Toney is electric.

Closing on the Chiefs’ 40-yard-line, Toney had a pair of defenders with an angle and the play looked like it was about to end after a solid gain. Both defenders likely suspected Toney would try to get out of bounds. Instead, demonstrating (perhaps) an awareness of the 2-minute-warning (or perhaps that there was plenty of time left with KC possessing multiple timeouts) and an utterly freakish level of body control, Toney spun between the defenders and picked up an additional 11 yards.

The ability to create yards one of the rarest traits in the NFL, and it allows teams to generate yardage in “safe” ways by designing short throws that give a receiver an opportunity to win 1x1 in space. It also forces defenses to bend towards certain players in order to account for those playmakers, and can provide an unexpected pop in moments where yards are hard to come by.

But Toney’s YAC ability isn’t the only way he creates yards. Something more subtle came earlier in the 2nd quarter on a jet sweep that’s worth noting. Watch how Toney alters his speed/trajectory on this run in reaction to the blocking.

It’s easy to miss in real time, but once Toney gets into open space (by the way, watch the RDE for the Jaguars. There’s nothing to mess with a pass rusher’s mind like a strong jet sweep game) you can see him slow down a hair and place himself right behind Kelce while still maintaining distance from pursuing defenders. It’s a very, very subtle nuance to being a great open-field runner, but it allows him to maximize Kelce’s block down the field rather than sprinting into the defender and essentially tackling himself.

Toney’s instincts with the ball in his hands aren’t limited to being an oddly fluid player with great quickness and burst (along with solid top-end speed). He also runs with tremendous instincts when reacting to where the defense is flowing along with his blockers. That slowdown may well have bought the Chiefs an additional 5 yards or so. It’s not a huge gain or a gasp-inducing spin, but it’s yardage creation all the same.

Toney also got a chance to demonstrate that he’s not just a gadget player in terms of how he can create yards, making another highlight play that involved a completely different sort of skillset.

Here, the Chiefs are attempting to run a double move against the Jaguars and go over the top of the underneath defender. It’s worth noting that the safety is shaded to Toney’s direction, so this throw requires trust. Toney’s defender bites on the double move but compensates by holding (which was called).

However, Toney doesn’t let the contact halt his progress down the field and again shows his ability to “be water” through contact with his combination of balance, body control, and more strength than he gets credit for. That allows him to continue to push the route down the field and get to the spot Mahomes is expecting him to. Once there, the ball is already arriving and Toney gets a chance to show off one of his most underrated traits; Ball skills.

Kali Mahomes @ClayWendler

ENHANCE: Kadarius Toney took time to adjust his gloves mid-route before Mossing those poor Jaguars today.

Toney made about as good a play on the ball as one can make here, and it involves a number of things that are very hard to do. First, he gets his eyes back towards the quarterback to see if the ball is coming while continuing his progress down the field (try running with your head turned sometime). Next, he locates the ball and WAITS to make a play on it until the last moment.

Let’s talk about that for a moment, because it’s high-level stuff for a receiver who is supposed to be a gadget player or project. Remember that defenders down the field in this situation are often playing the receiver rather than the ball. They can’t see it coming, and so they rely on the reaction of the receiver to know that the ball is coming and they play the hands of their opponent. If Toney starts to raise his hands early here as he sees the ball coming, the defender will know to stop chasing and start to try and mirror Toney’s hands. Instead, he doesn’t realize the ball is there until it’s almost on top of them.

That’s all terrific, yardage-creating stuff, as is what happens next. Toney times his jump perfectly as the ball starts to arrive and adjusts his body to put himself in position to box out the safety over the top (had he arrived). He also snatches the ball out of the air at the highest point possible. This play, from start to finish, is one of multiple reasons to be excited about Toney’s future as not just a “YAC” receiver, but one who is capable of being trusted with a full route tree and plays down the field.

Toney’s participation in the offense was still relatively limited Sunday, though his target share went way up when he was on the field (almost certainly due to the absence of a pair of receivers).

Dwain McFarland @dwainmcfarland

Kadarius Toney was limited to a 41% route participation despite the absence of Mecole Hardman and an injury that limited JuJu Smisth-Schuster to 39%. However, he posted a juicy 29% targets per route run and finishes second by Travis Kelce in targets (5).

It’s clear that Reid and company are still working Toney into the offense, but the potential there is wildly intriguing. It’s worth noting that even on plays where he wasn’t targeted, Toney looked sharp on his routes and showed a knack for being a “second play” guy who saw when to break things off and try to present a target for Mahomes’ scramble drill. He also, and I think this is going to come into play more and more as the season moves along, showed a legitimate ability to take the top off a defense, even on a player where ultimately he wasn’t targeted.

This snap may feel insignificant given its lack of overall impact, but it’s something defensive coordinators are going to have to think about. With Toney facing man coverage he’s able to avoid any contact and immediately get “even” with his defender. He then shows he’s more than quick, gaining a step almost immediately that leads to the corner trying to grab hold of him to slow him down. He sees Mahomes stepping up in the pocket (he has no way of knowing it’ll be a failed scramble) and keeps on his route.

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When the safety comes over, Toney smartly and subtly fakes continuing outside (which lulls both defenders to sleep as they have the deep go route covered) and then breaks inside, creating leverage down the field against both of them. Had the protection held up on this particular play, Mahomes would’ve had a potential downfield shot to Toney here and the NFL world might be even more freaked out than it already may be. While it didn’t result in anything, that ability to get behind a defense is something that opposing teams will have to think about when deciding their coverages with Toney on the field.

Do you lay off him? If so, Mahomes will take an easy gain with a possibility of a much larger one given his YAC ability. Do you play him at the line? Because he’s comfortable with contact and has speed, he may run by your corner, meaning the safety needs to be available over the top. The risk there is double because you know he can track the ball down the field and bring it in. Do you play zone? Then you’re begging Travis Kelce and (once he’s cleared to come back) Juju Smith-Schuster to slice you up courtesy of Mahomes simply finding the open spots, or a shot play to MVS since you haven’t slowed him on his route.

In short, while Toney is not Tyreek Hill (no one is, he’s the best receiver in the game), his skillset presents some of the same general problems for defenses to worry about in addition to all the problems they already have from Mahomes/Kelce and a deep receiving group.

And it’s clear Toney is thrilled to be in KC. One way to tell how a receiver is feeling about their environment is what they do when they don’t have the ball. And not only is Toney running routes hard, he’s been a high-effort player as a blocker. On multiple plays Sunday he was an eager participant in the run game, and while he’s not a dominant blocker there his efforts did lead to walling off potential tacklers and helping lengthen several runs by Isiah Pacheco.

In short, the Chiefs have managed to snag a first round talent for assets worth significantly less than that, and just two games in it’s already paying large dividends. There’s still a great deal of work to be done to incorporate Toney into the overall offense, but he’s already displayed a wide skillset that goes well beyond his electricity with the ball in his hands. That ability alone makes him a great addition to the offense, but it’s the other, more subtle stuff that makes his ceiling significantly higher.

I expect this experiment will have its ups and downs, but as of now, health permitting, Toney’s presence raises the floor of the offense considerably given the obvious and non-obvious ways he helps create yards, as well as the additional threat he presents to opposing defenses. It should be fun to watch play out.