Not only did they put him in a position to have to earn what was already his as Seth put it, they lost him $55M guaranteed dollars. if he returns to his 2016-2021 WAR in the 0.3 range vs 2022's 0.57 WAR he isn't going to earn any more than what he was offered this year. Potentially less being a year older. Only the Laveon Bell holdout appears to have been more foolish.
I'm so happy to see him back! But yes, this was a disaster all the way around. Didn't achieve their actual goal and he's in a worse position than when they started.
Sometimes it seems like players are getting bad advice because they don't understand the time value of money. Let's say CJ was in for a $30M signing bonus this year by signing the extension. Now he's in a position where the Chiefs can push off the time when he receives that extra $30M by what, 12-24 months, depending on if he gets tagged or not. So between inflation and interest, that's ~10-20% he's losing by not making the deal now. Which is $3-6M of the $10M he wanted to fight over. It's not CJ's job to know math, but I think CJ made the same mistake OBJ did, and hired guys who would tell him what he wants to hear, not guys who would give him honest advice.
The best thing he can do is hire a respected agent, whether it’s to negotiate an extension with the Chiefs or to enter free agency, and pray he stays healthy this year. This is absolute malpractice by the Katz bros.
I think this was brilliant by Veach and company. A lower tag, another year to see if he's still All-World as a starting point for a possible extension. I HOPE CJ is as great (or better) as last year, and in the Spring we're talking about a 2 or 3 year extension. But if not... we just preserved flexibility. Brilliant.
I feel like it's a little unfair to represent his base tag as $30.5M when he just needs to hit the field 50% of the time to get that number up to $32.8.
Definitely wish we would have locked him up, but definitely get why he turn down $54m in 24-25 when he was already getting $32-$33 in '24.
He had money in incentives in the original deal, too. I don't know what they were but I'm assuming they were at least similar to the ones he has now. if true, by my math, he'd need to win DPOY and the Super Bowl just to break even.
It's incredible how incompetent one can be once you get to a certain level. Those agents should be forced to make up the difference due to their gross incompetence (malpractice?) but instead, they'll keep collecting their fees and commissions while Chris gets screwed by doing what "the experts" told him. They, should at least have to line up across from Chris for one series of downs.
I suspect they were counting their commission off of CJ's money instead of giving sound advice. He needs to fire them and hire someone like Leigh Steinberg.
CJ was their only notable client when his last deal got done, and it's telling that years later, he's still their one big fish. NFL media are letting these clowns off easy.
Likely to be earned is based on previous season’s performance, I think. If he met the criteria last season, they are “likely to be earned” and included in this year’s cap number. So everything other than DOPY are considered likely to be earned. -- I think.
Incentives that are added to a contract that is for a season that is already in progress are considered LTBE if the player has already earned them. So that's not the case here, which means all the new ones (apparently the 10 sack one was previously there and was considered LTBE) will be NLTBE
Thanks for the informed analysis. I feel like we are missing something though. Jones can not really think this was a win. If he does, then I really have to question his decision making process. Hopefully more bad financial and football decisions are not in his future.
Have you seen some of the business decisions made by NFL players? The NFLPA's refusal to crack down on unqualified agents is the root of this problem. The Katz bros should never have been certified to negotiate an NFL contract.
Oh, I forgot to include here... so my "X" account has been temporarily locked due to me supposedly violating their conditions. I have appealed, noting that the tweet was in fact NOT threatening someone but was in fact me utilizing the "in place of the arguer" method and quoting someone as a joke to a longtime friend... to no avail.
Supposedly I'll be back tonight. I guess we'll see lol. But I'm more grateful than ever for all of you subscribers and the fact that Twitter/X is something I'm no longer COMPLETELY dependent on!
Haha I've been thinking about that whole gambling ad read thing. I personally tend to be a "free will" guy and have never viewed gambling something that is per se sinful, but I've had enough people tease me that I'm worried! :)
Just keep it out of the content of the podcast content, and I'll stick around. Many good football podcasts have gone by the wayside because they can't resist the pull. Sports gambling is going to ruin many more lives in the decade ahead than it did in the decade behind us, to be sure. And the significant improvements in access to treatment for addiction very definitely do not extend to gambling. But as you said, to each their own.
One of the great unforced errors I can remember. Makes him look incompetent and his agents even more so. I hope he does really well, but it's sad he damaged his relationship with the fans over basically nothing.
This end result (or middle point?) to the Jones finance saga really just illustrates why more financial literacy to players should be a larger focus for the NFL.
Seems to my eyes that his agents are guilty of malpractice if they didn’t make it VERY clear to Jones how much risk he was taking on by holding out and then by not accepting the extension. Basically he’s in a situation now where even if he plays at the average level he’s played at over the last 3-4 years, he will still be playing at an exceptionally high level, but he will earn less this year, and likely not get a new contract in FA that exceeds the guaranteed money the Chiefs offered.
His Agents just seemed to really let him down here, but glad he's locked in and basically on another contract year bump.
Not only did they put him in a position to have to earn what was already his as Seth put it, they lost him $55M guaranteed dollars. if he returns to his 2016-2021 WAR in the 0.3 range vs 2022's 0.57 WAR he isn't going to earn any more than what he was offered this year. Potentially less being a year older. Only the Laveon Bell holdout appears to have been more foolish.
I'm so happy to see him back! But yes, this was a disaster all the way around. Didn't achieve their actual goal and he's in a worse position than when they started.
Sometimes it seems like players are getting bad advice because they don't understand the time value of money. Let's say CJ was in for a $30M signing bonus this year by signing the extension. Now he's in a position where the Chiefs can push off the time when he receives that extra $30M by what, 12-24 months, depending on if he gets tagged or not. So between inflation and interest, that's ~10-20% he's losing by not making the deal now. Which is $3-6M of the $10M he wanted to fight over. It's not CJ's job to know math, but I think CJ made the same mistake OBJ did, and hired guys who would tell him what he wants to hear, not guys who would give him honest advice.
He got out of training camp, and has a way of coming out ahead on the deal. What he lost is a flea bite.
He lost one game to even start making progress towards all those incentives. Good lord, what terrible agents.
Unrelated... your user name is incredible.
The best thing he can do is hire a respected agent, whether it’s to negotiate an extension with the Chiefs or to enter free agency, and pray he stays healthy this year. This is absolute malpractice by the Katz bros.
I wonder whether we'll see the Katz bros go bye-bye in favor of a real agent.
I heard the Katz bros eat BBQ ribs with a knife and fork.
Ouch. I almost feel sorry for them after getting scorched like that.
I think this was brilliant by Veach and company. A lower tag, another year to see if he's still All-World as a starting point for a possible extension. I HOPE CJ is as great (or better) as last year, and in the Spring we're talking about a 2 or 3 year extension. But if not... we just preserved flexibility. Brilliant.
I feel like it's a little unfair to represent his base tag as $30.5M when he just needs to hit the field 50% of the time to get that number up to $32.8.
Definitely wish we would have locked him up, but definitely get why he turn down $54m in 24-25 when he was already getting $32-$33 in '24.
He had money in incentives in the original deal, too. I don't know what they were but I'm assuming they were at least similar to the ones he has now. if true, by my math, he'd need to win DPOY and the Super Bowl just to break even.
It's incredible how incompetent one can be once you get to a certain level. Those agents should be forced to make up the difference due to their gross incompetence (malpractice?) but instead, they'll keep collecting their fees and commissions while Chris gets screwed by doing what "the experts" told him. They, should at least have to line up across from Chris for one series of downs.
I suspect they were counting their commission off of CJ's money instead of giving sound advice. He needs to fire them and hire someone like Leigh Steinberg.
CJ was their only notable client when his last deal got done, and it's telling that years later, he's still their one big fish. NFL media are letting these clowns off easy.
Here's to Chris earning all of his incentives!
Amen to that! That'd lead us to 3 SB's in 5 seasons and an argument for the greatest 5-year stretch in league history!
Love the breakdown, lawyer Seth.
Good stuff. Also note that the way those couple break down, it looks like his cap hit goes up. All but the last 3 mil should count against this year.
So how does this affect our cap situation?
They're not likely to be earned incentives, which is a little bit different from my understanding. They'll still need to clear space though!
Seth, have you read the new stuff this morning? Chiefs made cap and I’m confused by this void thing.
OR... maybe they ARE likely to be earned? I can't keep up!
https://twitter.com/ChrisClarkNFL/status/1701642824372875429
Likely to be earned is based on previous season’s performance, I think. If he met the criteria last season, they are “likely to be earned” and included in this year’s cap number. So everything other than DOPY are considered likely to be earned. -- I think.
Incentives that are added to a contract that is for a season that is already in progress are considered LTBE if the player has already earned them. So that's not the case here, which means all the new ones (apparently the 10 sack one was previously there and was considered LTBE) will be NLTBE
Thanks for the informed analysis. I feel like we are missing something though. Jones can not really think this was a win. If he does, then I really have to question his decision making process. Hopefully more bad financial and football decisions are not in his future.
Have you seen some of the business decisions made by NFL players? The NFLPA's refusal to crack down on unqualified agents is the root of this problem. The Katz bros should never have been certified to negotiate an NFL contract.
Oh, I forgot to include here... so my "X" account has been temporarily locked due to me supposedly violating their conditions. I have appealed, noting that the tweet was in fact NOT threatening someone but was in fact me utilizing the "in place of the arguer" method and quoting someone as a joke to a longtime friend... to no avail.
Supposedly I'll be back tonight. I guess we'll see lol. But I'm more grateful than ever for all of you subscribers and the fact that Twitter/X is something I'm no longer COMPLETELY dependent on!
The thought of you threatening someone made me laugh.
The worst I could see you doing is calling someone a "cotton-headed ninny muggins".
haha I was quoting someone and did it poorly, apparently.
My my how you've changed. Gambling ad reads, threatening people on X... Get to church, man! :P
Haha I've been thinking about that whole gambling ad read thing. I personally tend to be a "free will" guy and have never viewed gambling something that is per se sinful, but I've had enough people tease me that I'm worried! :)
Just keep it out of the content of the podcast content, and I'll stick around. Many good football podcasts have gone by the wayside because they can't resist the pull. Sports gambling is going to ruin many more lives in the decade ahead than it did in the decade behind us, to be sure. And the significant improvements in access to treatment for addiction very definitely do not extend to gambling. But as you said, to each their own.
Just quit X altogether, or at least start trying to move your audience or build an audience in Threads.
I don't have time for that to be perfectly honest. I know that's a poor excuse, but it's the only one I've got!
Leave Twitter. You'll feel better.
Heh, sadly, there's really no replacement for it in terms of up to date following of this wild sport or to spread the word about this place!
One of the great unforced errors I can remember. Makes him look incompetent and his agents even more so. I hope he does really well, but it's sad he damaged his relationship with the fans over basically nothing.
According to Spotrac, the Chiefs will now be $9m+ over the cap the moment they activate CJ95. Seth, any thoughts about how they get there?
I almost have to think there's something we haven't been told. Could they have promised him advertising dollars? Worked out a deal for NIL?
It's just crazy the way it is.
This end result (or middle point?) to the Jones finance saga really just illustrates why more financial literacy to players should be a larger focus for the NFL.
Seems to my eyes that his agents are guilty of malpractice if they didn’t make it VERY clear to Jones how much risk he was taking on by holding out and then by not accepting the extension. Basically he’s in a situation now where even if he plays at the average level he’s played at over the last 3-4 years, he will still be playing at an exceptionally high level, but he will earn less this year, and likely not get a new contract in FA that exceeds the guaranteed money the Chiefs offered.