Chris Jones' one-year contract: The Chiefs' DT has to earn back what was already his

The Chiefs' defensive tackle has ended his holdout with a deal that forces him to earn what was already his, with some unlikely incentives tacked on.

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When things change in the NFL contract world, they change fast.

Chris Jones is back with the Chiefs, with his holdout ending in a more unique way than most were anticipating. It was generally believed that Jones would either get a contract extension or that he would simply report to the team and play out his current deal. Instead, neither happened.

As Adam Schefter reported (and made clear he was given the information by the Katz brothers, Jones’ agents), Jones and the team basically created a new one-year deal. The details of that deal have since been shared. What I’d like to do is go through the way the contract was initially shared, what we now know about the deal, and offer a couple of thoughts on this whole saga and why this ending is a tough one for Jones.

First, Schefter explained the new deal with a relatively vague tweet.

(Due to “X” having a beef with Substack I still cannot embed tweets here. Oh, and my account got suspended for 12 hours. But we’ll talk about that part later, because it’s somewhat funny)

Ian Rapoport added his own, relatively similar language.

Note the terms that are used here, which were pretty clearly chosen at least in part by the Katz brothers. The term “considerably more money” is an interesting one, and makes it look as though Jones managed to maintain his flexibility for next season while making more money this year. Note Rap’s language talking about how he can make up his fines (AND MORE) with his “incentive package.”

Big win for the player, right? Jones clearly seems to think so, replying as follows to someone who noted that he lost a great deal of money in fines:

But… Did he?

Let me be clear… I’m beyond thrilled that Jones is back. He’s one of the very best defensive players in the NFL, the 3rd most important piece of the most successful stretch in Chiefs history. He’s a dominant force capable of taking over drives and games, and I’ve written about that multiple times. He’s a unique player whose combination of functional strength and athleticism is almost unparalleled.

He’s also a joy to watch on the field, one of my favorite players not just as an analyst, but a fan. Heck, he’s literally my wife’s favorite player for the way he interacts with and feeds off the crowd. None of this contract stuff changes any of that for me, and I hope he has a spectacular season.

But accuracy matters. So let’s look at the actual details of this new one-year deal now that they’ve been released (and given that it came directly from Florio, who is obviously speaking with the Katz brothers, the accuracy of these numbers isn’t really in doubt).

Albert Breer laid it out in a little easier-to-follow format.

So let’s do some math here, OK?

The Math

First, let’s start with what Jones lost this offseason. Per Tom Pelissero, Jones lost approximately $2 million in fines during training camp (the number, based on Nate Taylor’s previous reporting, was $2.1 million) as well as a $500,000 workout bonus. He then forfeited a game check worth about $1.1 million (a little less).

That has to be taken into account when we try to “math” the new deal, because it means that Jones is starting out this new deal $3.7 million in the hole. That’s money that is gone, out the window, never coming back. So right now, the “total” for Jones to possibly gain in 2023 is in the negative at -$3.7 million. That’s a tough place to start.

NOW we can get to the new contract. First, we add in that base salary of $19.5 million (that was always, always going to be there, mind you). Then he has a series of incentives, some of which are quite easy, some of which are quite tough.

The easy incentives

That would be the snap count bonuses. Barring an injury, there is almost no chance that Jones doesn’t play 50% of the snaps this season. So that’s $2 million extra dollars right there. Terrific!

The problem is, that’s where the “easy” incentives stop. And we’re still $1.7 million short of making up what he LOST due to this holdout. There’s a “medium” incentive as well, but then things ramp up considerably.

The medium incentive

There’s a $1.25 million bonus for achieving 10 sacks in 16 games. That’s certainly possible for Jones. After all, he racked up 15.5 sacks last season.

However… that was only the second time in Jones’ career that he had more than 10 sacks in a season (the other, 2018, he had 15.5 sacks as well). As we’ve often talked about here, sack numbers are much, much more a product of luck than “pass rush wins” or hits/pressures on the quarterback. It depends on the guys around you to not allow quarterbacks to escape, as well as coverage to hold up. You can be absolutely dominant and still not rack up 10 sacks, especially from the defensive tackle position where they are a little tougher to come by.

Jones was just as terrific a pass rusher in 2020/2021 as he was in 2022 in terms of win percentage, but his sacks those seasons (7.5 and 9.0) don’t reflect it. That’s the nature of that particular statistic from an “incentive” standpoint.

So in other words, Jones needs to do something he’s done 2 of his 7 years in the league in order to earn this incentive. I think with Cullen there and the surrounding pieces he has a decent shot, but this is by no means an easy incentive.

And here’s the thing… Even if Jones hits THIS incentive, he still hasn’t “broken even” from the $3.7 million that he’s lost. He’s still down nearly half a million dollars. And now we’re getting to the much harder incentives.

The hard incentives

$500K for 15 sacks is where Jones can “pass” (barely) what he’s lost so far with this holdout. Is that impossible? No. Is it very hard, based on everything we’ve already talked about? Absolutely.

And then there are the much, much tougher incentives. Note the language in the $1 million incentive. It’s not 1st Team All Pro OR Super Bowl, it’s both. And it’s not any All Pro team, it’s the 1st team. Jones has made the 1st Team All Pro roster one time in his career… last season. The league is filled with excellent defensive tackles, including a now-healthy Aaron Donald. And then, of course, there’s the whole “make the Super Bowl” thing. This one is incredibly tough to hit. And if he does, that puts him a little over a million dollars above where he would have been with absolutely no holdout whatsoever.

The final $2 million incentive? Basically fool’s gold. Do I hope Jones wins the defensive player of the year AND the Chiefs win the Super Bowl? Of course! Is it likely? No, it is not. Last season was the first of his career Jones’ name was a finalist for DPOY, and as we’ve all seen, repeating as Super Bowl champs is incredibly difficult. Getting both? The odds are wildly stacked against him.

And even then… he would have managed to get himself a whole $3 million more than what he would have been guaranteed just by walking in the door under his original deal.

The Math Takeaway (what Jones “gained”)

In short, when you do the math, Jones needs to achieve all his easier incentives (which means no injuries) and collect 15 sacks to even break even from his holdout. Let me say that again… Just to break even from this entire holdout saga, Jones needs to do something he’s done twice in his career in seven years.

Another way of saying that is that Jones now has to EARN (through snaps, sacks, awards, and Super Bowls) something that was FREE for him prior to this holdout.

That is not a win for the player. That is a devastating loss. Jones could have just walked into training camp and been realistically similarly situated to where he is now even without a contract extension. The fact that he’s stating on Twitter that he “made it all back” shows he’s either misinformed or is choosing to ignore the reality of those incentives (or perhaps wildly confident, a trait I like about him).

To be perfectly blunt, I cannot help but ask the question as to how well the situation has been explained to Jones by his representation. Because the math isn’t mathing.

What Jones lost

The most obvious thing Jones lost here is the offer that was on the table (unless one believes that offer remains identical following this season, which again depends on Jones being great, not anything his agents accomplished for him) contained approximately $54 million guaranteed to him, based on what we’ve been told. That’s gone now, in theory. He gave that up for the right to try and earn more and hope that things break his way. And hey, Jones is a great player whose health has been generally solid, so he’s got some reason for hope/confidence.

But that is an incredible amount of money, and there’s never a sure thing for players from one season to the next. That’s the most obvious loss.

Jones also lost the ability to negotiate an offseason deal while his age was a bit less of an issue. He’s currently 29 and turns 30 on July 3rd. While the difference of a year may not seem like a big deal (and perhaps it won’t be, if he’s terrific again in 2023), in the NFL a single year matters a great deal. This is especially true when players that aren’t quarterbacks or offensive linemen hit the dreaded “30 years old” mark. Again, this may be irrelevant in the long term… but it may not. And that is added risk for him in terms of the long-term deal he was seeking.

Another thing that is affected by this new structure is the franchise tag. There are a few different numbers being reported, but one of the people I trust the most put it this way:

Prior to all this, the previous reporting on Jones’ tag was that it would be something like $32-33 million. So Jones’ base tag value is just a tad lower than it would have been had he not gone through this entire saga.

Nothing about the reporting indicates that Jones’ representation was able to wrench the right to tag away from the Chiefs in negotiations, which tells me Veach and company are at least considering that as an option and will utilize it if they believe it’s what is best (whether for a trade, which is complicated, or to start negotiations from).

And so overall, Jones lost potential long-term security, lost a year of negotiation and leverage, and lost a bit of leverage off the franchise tag. All to have a chance to MAYBE end up where he started out or (at most) $3 million ahead in 2023.

Keep in mind that Jones held out to get an extension, and a lucrative one. He wanted that long-term security. And not only did that not get done, but he’s in a slightly worse position than he was when all this started. That’s a tough, tough situation.

Those are the monetary things that Jones lost here. And that leaves out fan goodwill. I personally do not hold any of this against Jones. I believe he received poor advice and acted on it, something I’ve seen hundreds of times practicing law. But some fans may not view it that way, and it may be be an unfortunate asterisk on an otherwise legendary career in Kansas City. I wish things weren’t that way, but they are.

My hope is it’s an asterisk that fans forget once an extension is eventually reached, but given the way things have gone to date I have zero faith in his representation to approach the next round of negotiations realistically.

Now What?

Well, now one of the very best defensive players in the NFL is back with the Chiefs in 2023. My hope is he has one of the greatest seasons in the history of the league and we all get to sit and marvel for another season at how terrific a player Jones is (and that he earns every incentive in that deal, because how fun would that be to watch?).

After that? It’s hard to say. My hope is this one-year deal buys Veach and company some time to try and lock Jones up long-term. It would truly be a shame if such a great player isn’t able to spend his entire career a Chief. But alas, this is a business, and sometimes that gets in the way of the best stories.

But I do know that I’ll be rooting for Jones just as hard as ever this year. Whether it’s a farewell tour or not, he’s earned that from me.