I answered another question about him elsewhere here with my take on his overall performance! The short version is this; He needs to get those gimme's worked out, but as long as he has ice water in his veins he has a lot of value.
Hey seth! My question is do you think the chargers waste another talented qb? Herbert has the talent to be great aside from making bad choices here and there.
If Herbert reaches his potential, it feels almost impossible for them to waste multiple decades of high-level QB play. That said, I put nothing past the Chargers at this point. I used to scoff at the idea that they're cursed, but man, it's EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Even without Rivers last year. We'll see if a changeover of medical staff helps.
That said, the jury is definitely out on Herbert because of those referenced bad choices. They come too frequently at this point to be overcome by anything but absolutely stellar play the rest of the time. So he'll need to iron that out or become basically Mahomes-like outside of those plays to enter into the top 10 of QB's.
I completely agree. I mean from bad throw choices to absolutely taking monster shots like wilson laid on him last year. I would like to see good competition but it always feels like the chargers just go limp when they have the roster. Plus a new HC OC for herbert. Could be a rough start
I think it's going to be tough for him to get an extension in KC even if he has a great year due to Hill's existence.
That said, he's already more valuable than McCluster because of his rare speed, and I think people are underestimating his talent after a disappointing year. He definitely didn't take a step forward last year, but did improve throughout his rookie season and I wouldn't call it quits on optimism regarding him just yet.
A lot will depend on how this year goes. If he plays at the same level he played in BAL he'd be very justified in looking for about 19-20 per season (the rate is only going to go up). If he plays at a higher level he might be in line for something closer to what Tunsil/Bakhtiari/Williams got.
I don't see many scenarios where the Chiefs play hardball there. Pass protection and OL play, especially at the tackles, are crucial to what they do with Mahomes.
The short story is this; while they've gotten some guys who are a bit more power oriented, you're never going to see Andy Reid move away from a pass-happy attack. Keep in mind this is the guy who was throwing the ball over 65% of the time when people were INSISTING that it was the wrong way to win games. Combine that with the existence of Mahomes and KC would be crazy to move away from their aerial attack.
Where I see some changes would be in more gap and power based runs (still going to be zone heavy in all likelihood, though), as well as a little more "R" in their RPO's as the trust in the offensive line to actually run-block well increases. I also think they're going to be a bit more inclined to stretch the field IF the offensive line is improved as is the hope.
Thanks Seth, This is exactly what I was looking for. I think you are right and cannot wait to watch this incredible offense on game day. Keep up the good work.
Depends on what you mean. If you mean guys still in the league and/or free agents, I'd love to have a healthy Mitch Schwartz in a world where I could dream. In terms of guys who have left for other teams, the Chiefs have by and large done an excellent job retaining their most important players in recent years, so there aren't many that I'd just be dying for them to grab back. Kendall Fuller would be nice given the current questions in the secondary, to be sure. Another one who would be nice (but will not happen unless something crazy occurs) would be Houston, given the current concerns at DE.
In terms of all-time, there are no wrong choices. DT, Shields, Roaf, TG, Charles, DJ would probably be my pick in some order. Charles is a pick that doesn't make much sense given how the NFL works and the existence of CEH, but I can't help myself.
In a lot of ways it could arguably help him MORE (not that it'll move the needle as much for the offense as even a smaller assistance to Mahomes). CEH had a lot of runs in which there just wasn't anywhere to go, and there were plenty of situations in which the OL should've been able to get more traction against lighter boxes than they were. Alleviating that should help him utilize his ability to beat defenders 1x1 and drag guys for extra yardage (which is a lot harder to do against 3 guys than 1).
A more consistent varied role, fewer moments of miscommunication, and eking out a larger target share. What that'll look like from a statistical standpoint is tough to say (and depends on about a zillion other factors), but the big thing with him will be consistency.
With Patrick Mahomes' injury history on plays where he runs for the first down (dislocated knee, turf toe) do you forsee Reid/Bienemy taking those options out of the playbook or discouraging Mahomes from scrambling?
The dislocated knee thing was a freak occurrence, I've never seen a QB get hurt on a sneak before.
Mahomes is a fantastic scrambler, and it has a massive effect on opposing defenses, so I don't see them removing that as an option. It's just too important, as well as all the stuff they do moving him outside/around the pocket.
They've already brought on a FB, so I'm guessing they keep that role around (most for special teams). I'm still watching the H-back situation pretty closely, which might be something to keep an eye on with Noah Gray. I think he's an excellent fit for that role, which could swallow up what few FB snaps existed.
Excluding an injury to our resident alien Mahomes, what's the potential biggest issue that could derail a 3rd consecutive trip to the superbowl? (Did I just say 3rd trip to SB? What a time to be alive!)
Barring Mahomes/Kelce/Hill getting hurt (in that order, that's what would be the biggest problem in their way), I think the offensive line failing to gel and/or not panning out how they hope could be very problematic. They would still win a ton of games in the regular season (they're too good not to) but would have a bigger problem against really good teams come playoff time.
Humphrey is basically a lock barring something crazy. I'd be surprised if Smith started, I think he'd have to really wow them to get out there before LDT (and keep in mind Long is supposed to be back as the season starts). Niang needs to beat out Remmers, which won't be as easy as people think, but I see him as having a slightly clearer path.
That said, I just can't picture them starting all 3 rookies. That would be a massive leap of faith. It also would be the best case scenario for them as it would mean the young guys earned that spot, and would also mean the Chiefs' OL would all be under contract through the '24 season (assuming Brown gets extended). That's incredibly rare continuity.
It's a boring answer (because so many people feel this way), but I'm excited to see what Willie Gay Jr. brings to the table in year two with an actual normal offeseason/etc. His physical talent is off the charts, and when I wrote about him here I was stunned out how often he pops out on film when compared to everyone else.
In what areas would Mike Danna (The Dannimal) have to step up to take considerable snaps at DE this year? Conversely, does he have any physical traits that could put a significant ceiling on his role in the defense?
Danna had a very good rookie year, and I was very impressed with how savvy and technically sound he was for a young player. The problem for him is that he's not a great athlete, and he got exposed in space against quarterbacks multiple times. He probably had a half-dozen sacks slip through his fingers due to getting shaken once he had a shot at the QB. He's just not fast/quick enough from what it appears.
That physical limitation is what I see to be his biggest issue. It felt like his had to play like a 10-year vet in order to see as many snaps as he did, so I question how much he could "develop" at this point in terms of mentally. He'll need to get a little stronger or a little more athletic in order to see hi role increase (not out of the question, but not super common either).
First, favorite VBS song? My youngest finished 5th grade, so this was my last VBS as a parent. The kids have one about a hippo that always makes me smile no matter how grumpy and old I want to be.
Second, if you could choose one draft pick to work out perfectly from the 2021 draft, who would you pick and why?
I like the fruit of the spirit song (you know, "the fruit of the spirit is not a banana...")!
If I could pick just one, and leave the rest to their "normal" chance of working out, I think I'd go with Cornell Powell. A receiver moves the needle more than most other positions, and I think that Creed has an excellent chance at being at least solid. KC grabbing a really good receiver (which is how I'd define the pick working out perfectly) at that point would be a massive help to their offense this year.
I think they value DoD for special teams, and as long as they continue to emphasis ST with Dave Toub (which has helped them more than people realize in terms of winning consistently), that's going to count for a great deal. I like Ward as a developmental guy, but it's going to be a battle to be one of the "maybe one day" DE's on the roster with dudes like Danna and Wharton already around.
I answered another question about him elsewhere here with my take on his overall performance! The short version is this; He needs to get those gimme's worked out, but as long as he has ice water in his veins he has a lot of value.
Hey seth! My question is do you think the chargers waste another talented qb? Herbert has the talent to be great aside from making bad choices here and there.
If Herbert reaches his potential, it feels almost impossible for them to waste multiple decades of high-level QB play. That said, I put nothing past the Chargers at this point. I used to scoff at the idea that they're cursed, but man, it's EVERY SINGLE YEAR. Even without Rivers last year. We'll see if a changeover of medical staff helps.
That said, the jury is definitely out on Herbert because of those referenced bad choices. They come too frequently at this point to be overcome by anything but absolutely stellar play the rest of the time. So he'll need to iron that out or become basically Mahomes-like outside of those plays to enter into the top 10 of QB's.
I completely agree. I mean from bad throw choices to absolutely taking monster shots like wilson laid on him last year. I would like to see good competition but it always feels like the chargers just go limp when they have the roster. Plus a new HC OC for herbert. Could be a rough start
Does Hardman earn the extension this season, or is it more likely he becomes another McCluster-esque player around the league?
I think it's going to be tough for him to get an extension in KC even if he has a great year due to Hill's existence.
That said, he's already more valuable than McCluster because of his rare speed, and I think people are underestimating his talent after a disappointing year. He definitely didn't take a step forward last year, but did improve throughout his rookie season and I wouldn't call it quits on optimism regarding him just yet.
What’s the ballpark number on an Orlando Brown extension? Is there any scenario in which the Chiefs don’t pay it?
A lot will depend on how this year goes. If he plays at the same level he played in BAL he'd be very justified in looking for about 19-20 per season (the rate is only going to go up). If he plays at a higher level he might be in line for something closer to what Tunsil/Bakhtiari/Williams got.
I don't see many scenarios where the Chiefs play hardball there. Pass protection and OL play, especially at the tackles, are crucial to what they do with Mahomes.
After retooling the offensive line with larger, bulldozer type linemen, how do you see the offensive strategy changing?
I wrote about this (and some other stuff) for The Athletic!
https://theathletic.com/2675206/2021/06/30/5-takeaways-chiefs-offseason-moves/
The short story is this; while they've gotten some guys who are a bit more power oriented, you're never going to see Andy Reid move away from a pass-happy attack. Keep in mind this is the guy who was throwing the ball over 65% of the time when people were INSISTING that it was the wrong way to win games. Combine that with the existence of Mahomes and KC would be crazy to move away from their aerial attack.
Where I see some changes would be in more gap and power based runs (still going to be zone heavy in all likelihood, though), as well as a little more "R" in their RPO's as the trust in the offensive line to actually run-block well increases. I also think they're going to be a bit more inclined to stretch the field IF the offensive line is improved as is the hope.
Thanks Seth, This is exactly what I was looking for. I think you are right and cannot wait to watch this incredible offense on game day. Keep up the good work.
Thanks Scott!
What ex chief would you love to have on this current team?
Depends on what you mean. If you mean guys still in the league and/or free agents, I'd love to have a healthy Mitch Schwartz in a world where I could dream. In terms of guys who have left for other teams, the Chiefs have by and large done an excellent job retaining their most important players in recent years, so there aren't many that I'd just be dying for them to grab back. Kendall Fuller would be nice given the current questions in the secondary, to be sure. Another one who would be nice (but will not happen unless something crazy occurs) would be Houston, given the current concerns at DE.
In terms of all-time, there are no wrong choices. DT, Shields, Roaf, TG, Charles, DJ would probably be my pick in some order. Charles is a pick that doesn't make much sense given how the NFL works and the existence of CEH, but I can't help myself.
Great response. As an ex Virginia Tech Hokies have Fuller for the time we did was awesome.
Hi Seth,
Can the newly built offensive line help Edwards-Helaire as much as it should Mahomes?
Thanks for the time,
Rohit
In a lot of ways it could arguably help him MORE (not that it'll move the needle as much for the offense as even a smaller assistance to Mahomes). CEH had a lot of runs in which there just wasn't anywhere to go, and there were plenty of situations in which the OL should've been able to get more traction against lighter boxes than they were. Alleviating that should help him utilize his ability to beat defenders 1x1 and drag guys for extra yardage (which is a lot harder to do against 3 guys than 1).
What do we define as success for Mecole in 2021 and what does he need to do in order to prove he can be a long-term true WR in the NFL?
A more consistent varied role, fewer moments of miscommunication, and eking out a larger target share. What that'll look like from a statistical standpoint is tough to say (and depends on about a zillion other factors), but the big thing with him will be consistency.
With Patrick Mahomes' injury history on plays where he runs for the first down (dislocated knee, turf toe) do you forsee Reid/Bienemy taking those options out of the playbook or discouraging Mahomes from scrambling?
The dislocated knee thing was a freak occurrence, I've never seen a QB get hurt on a sneak before.
Mahomes is a fantastic scrambler, and it has a massive effect on opposing defenses, so I don't see them removing that as an option. It's just too important, as well as all the stuff they do moving him outside/around the pocket.
They (and he) need to be smart about it, though.
With Sherman retiring, do the Chiefs keep a FB on the roster or do they use someone like Bell to fill in those limited snaps on offense?
They've already brought on a FB, so I'm guessing they keep that role around (most for special teams). I'm still watching the H-back situation pretty closely, which might be something to keep an eye on with Noah Gray. I think he's an excellent fit for that role, which could swallow up what few FB snaps existed.
Excluding an injury to our resident alien Mahomes, what's the potential biggest issue that could derail a 3rd consecutive trip to the superbowl? (Did I just say 3rd trip to SB? What a time to be alive!)
WHAT a time to be alive!
Barring Mahomes/Kelce/Hill getting hurt (in that order, that's what would be the biggest problem in their way), I think the offensive line failing to gel and/or not panning out how they hope could be very problematic. They would still win a ton of games in the regular season (they're too good not to) but would have a bigger problem against really good teams come playoff time.
Do you see any possibility of the Chiefs starting three rookies offensive lineman week 1? Humphrey, Smith, Niang?
Humphrey is basically a lock barring something crazy. I'd be surprised if Smith started, I think he'd have to really wow them to get out there before LDT (and keep in mind Long is supposed to be back as the season starts). Niang needs to beat out Remmers, which won't be as easy as people think, but I see him as having a slightly clearer path.
That said, I just can't picture them starting all 3 rookies. That would be a massive leap of faith. It also would be the best case scenario for them as it would mean the young guys earned that spot, and would also mean the Chiefs' OL would all be under contract through the '24 season (assuming Brown gets extended). That's incredibly rare continuity.
What player are you excited about this year that's under the radar?
It's a boring answer (because so many people feel this way), but I'm excited to see what Willie Gay Jr. brings to the table in year two with an actual normal offeseason/etc. His physical talent is off the charts, and when I wrote about him here I was stunned out how often he pops out on film when compared to everyone else.
In what areas would Mike Danna (The Dannimal) have to step up to take considerable snaps at DE this year? Conversely, does he have any physical traits that could put a significant ceiling on his role in the defense?
Danna had a very good rookie year, and I was very impressed with how savvy and technically sound he was for a young player. The problem for him is that he's not a great athlete, and he got exposed in space against quarterbacks multiple times. He probably had a half-dozen sacks slip through his fingers due to getting shaken once he had a shot at the QB. He's just not fast/quick enough from what it appears.
That physical limitation is what I see to be his biggest issue. It felt like his had to play like a 10-year vet in order to see as many snaps as he did, so I question how much he could "develop" at this point in terms of mentally. He'll need to get a little stronger or a little more athletic in order to see hi role increase (not out of the question, but not super common either).
First, favorite VBS song? My youngest finished 5th grade, so this was my last VBS as a parent. The kids have one about a hippo that always makes me smile no matter how grumpy and old I want to be.
Second, if you could choose one draft pick to work out perfectly from the 2021 draft, who would you pick and why?
I like the fruit of the spirit song (you know, "the fruit of the spirit is not a banana...")!
If I could pick just one, and leave the rest to their "normal" chance of working out, I think I'd go with Cornell Powell. A receiver moves the needle more than most other positions, and I think that Creed has an excellent chance at being at least solid. KC grabbing a really good receiver (which is how I'd define the pick working out perfectly) at that point would be a massive help to their offense this year.
Do you think the team retains guys like Dorian O’Daniel at the LB position over another DE (like Ward, hypothetically)? Keep up the good work, Seth!
I think they value DoD for special teams, and as long as they continue to emphasis ST with Dave Toub (which has helped them more than people realize in terms of winning consistently), that's going to count for a great deal. I like Ward as a developmental guy, but it's going to be a battle to be one of the "maybe one day" DE's on the roster with dudes like Danna and Wharton already around.