Not that I was huge Haley fan, but I respected the hire and what Clark was attempting to do as a young owner. Herm and Romeo were dismal at the helm as well.
And in Haley's defense, he didn't call as many bad plays with the Cardinals or Steelers. Plus he was pretty hilarious on Hard Knocks by stating that player needed to be on the practice field (Hue famously disagreed). The QB and surrounding talent make quite a difference. Somehow the Pioli/Cassel "era" is overshadowed by Haley's assumed ineptitude.
Great read! It's funny, pretty early in Mahomes' first year as a starter I stopped worrying about 3rd and long. The feeling used to be the let down of knowing a punt was coming on the next down, to the expectation, not hope, but EXPECTATION, that they will convert it no matter the distance. After a lifetime of Chief's fandom, this is truly a magical time to be a Chief's fan, and it's only just getting started!
Love the graphic, it shows just how much beyond other quarterbacks he really his. I can't wait to see what this year brings with the new O line. I kind of expect some of the gaudier stats to drop this year because of a more balanced and efficient offense. We will see, the season always holds some unexpected surprises.
It's definitely a great graphic to demonstrate just how different Mahomes is in terms of performance/efficiency in high-pressure situations. There's a similar graphic for when KC is trailing. Mahomes gets better then while other QB's get worse.
It is important to have the narrative of this play alongside the chart you led with. My guess is that if you scour the film, you will see Drew Lock making several attempts like this. He, of course, has neither the accuracy nor the arm strength of Mahomes, and so these throws get picked at a high rate. Ten yards isn't nothing, and giving your defense that much better field position is better than an incompletion or an interception.
The greatness of Mahomes is not just that he makes these throws, but that he can do it efficiently.
Finally, Sam Darnold has no Patrick Mahomes in him. Woof. Good luck with that Carolina.
Is it really fair to call it a drop? It looked like the defender might have slightly tipped it, but I'm viewing it on my small phone screen. Still an incredible play regardless
May not be tipped but the defender’s hand certainly could have obscured Travis’ view. I think that may have contributed to those two circus-throw drops in the SB.
Hmm if he takes the checkdown and leaves 4th and 6 at the 45, don't you think Reid goes for it? I mean he should. Isn't that a better play than throwing a YOLO ball? Just because he can, doesn't mean he ALWAYS should. Although it makes the game a crap ton more fun when he does.
I think that is the next evolution in Mahomes game. Being able to just papercut a team to death. I think Brady is the ultimate papercut guy. He just throws 6 yard pass after 6 yard pass and then, all of a sudden, he's in the other teams Red Zone. Then when those safetys/linebackers start to creep up - Boom - ball over the top to Gronk or Moss.
Eh... I don't know if the receiver even makes the 45 (defenders are going to be on him the moment the ball arrives in all likelihood), and even if he did that would be 4th and 7 regardless (and on 4th down that yard matters!).
It's also worth noting that by buying time Mahomes creates a scramble opportunity where he can gain almost as much yardage as he would by throwing the "checkdown," all while continuing to allow for a best case scenario.
I agree that Mahomes shouldn't always extend the play when there's an open option underneath. However, in this scenario (3rd and long) it's absolutely the wrong decision to throw it well short of the sticks, which is why defenses provide that option so frequently.
All this is precisely why Mahomes is so much better on 3rd down than any other QB (including Brady, by a country mile, as Brady is actually below average on 3rd down). The "paper cut" stuff doesn't actually work in practice on 3rd down, as good as it sounds in theory.
Now, if you're talking about 1st/2nd down, then yes, the correct decision would have been to take the easy yards!
Point taken. Third down might not be the correct time to check down. My mind was more on 1st and 2nd down. I wasn't very clear considering the example given was a 3rd down play. Taking the checkdown on 3rd down to give yourself a chance on 4th is definitely situational. Even with how great Mahomes is on 3rd down, I don't think you are going to convert many 3rd and 20s.
I think there's a lot of merit to that, though the proof is in the pudding for Mahomes' 3rd down methodology being demonstrably better than anyone else's. BUT, doesn't mean there's not room for improvement!
Another aspect to that particular play is that I think it’s unlikely that Mahomes attempts that throw to anyone but Kelce. While Tyreek can levitate to an insane degree the defender would block his view of the ball. No one else has the hands to bring it in.
Mahomes will show some trust in those situations simply because it's the best of a number of tough options, but Kelce is generally the go-to (though he was good targeting Sammy in those spots as well).
Aren't there situational "field position" times where taking the available yards makes more sense though? Like if you're near your own goal line, giving your punter some room to work vs trying a "hero" play? Or if you're in borderline field goal territory and taking the underneath pass makes it a relatively makeable FG vs a coin flip? I agree completely that taking the chances "most of the time" (especially with how good Mahomes is at converting them) makes tons of sense AND is fun as hell to watch. Just wondering if there are any stats (or even what you've seen in film reviews") on how well Mahomes is able to recognize the situational times to be conservative rather than aggressive, or is that one of the few things he needs to try and improve on? The other factor would be how well does Mahomes recognizes the likelihood of a successful catch? What I mean is that in this example, even if Kelce makes the catch, it wasn't an easy catch by any means - it would've been a relatively high degree of difficulty. When it turns into a scramble drill, taking the shot to convert makes more sense if a guy is "relatively" open, vs when a guy only has a tiny window that would require both a great throw AND a great catch to convert. Not sure how they would track or quantify these aspects, but I suspect Mahomes is above average in both of those aspects as well.
One could find an exception to the rule, sure. But this is more a discussion of the general rule and demonstrating why he's so, so, so much better statistically on 3rd down than everyone else.
One cool thing about EPA per play is that it SHOULD (in theory) help account for those different situations in terms of down and distance and field position.
In terms of the last part, even a 50/50 ball is generally going to be better than for sure giving up the possession (again, depending on down and distance as well as field position and score).
Dumb question, but do you know whether EPA accounts for the likelihood of a defensive holding penalty, which would (should?) theoretically rise the longer a pass play is extended?
I am a long time Chiefs fan, and 3rd and long seemed to almost always lead to a punt. Now it is time to be extra focused on the play because you just KNOW that Mahomes is going to do something awesome! For so many years we would always check down, get 8 on 3rd and 10 or 12 on 3rd and 15. It was so frustrating. Now I expect us to convert. What a great time to be a Chiefs fan.
This is what people mean when they say Mahomes' greatness passes the eye test. Personally I think a major factor in why Mahomes was underrated coming into the NFL was that scouts didn't take the time to evaluate his situational awareness. It requires a significant time investment to understand this kind of context (as you know Seth), and it's much quicker and easier to live by a hard and fast rules like, "We don't take guys from air raid offenses" and move on to the next guy that fits into whatever subjective guidelines your team has conjured up.
Someone, somewhere on John Dorsey's staff was doing this homework in 2016 and saying as little as possible in preparation for the big move up. Just imagine what you could do if you used your special analysis powers on draft prospects, Seth?
It will never cease to amaze me how intuitive Mahomes is with his body. Take a look at how he shifts his entire weight sharply (and gracefully!) to the right as he throws in order to get the lateral velocity on the ball that most quarterbacks can't seem to get. Watching him throw cross-body so effortlessly makes one wonder why other quarterbacks can't seem to do it. Just one more unthinkably difficult thing he normalizes.
I know you specifically said his athleticism isn't the point of this particular post but sometimes the grace with which he moves just breaks my brain. [shrug emoji]
Right? It's CONSTANT. I never want to take it for granted. But it is definitely interesting how people eventually grow numb to it, whereas they NEVER got tired of reading about Alex Smith (due to the constant debate I'm guessing).
It's crazy that he can kick it to another level on 3rd down like that.....
It's genuinely odd. He's awesome, then becomes even MORE awesome.
That's a huge difference from when Todd Haley would call a RB draw play on 3rd and 20!
I wish I could block Haley, and that era from my mind.
Not that I was huge Haley fan, but I respected the hire and what Clark was attempting to do as a young owner. Herm and Romeo were dismal at the helm as well.
And in Haley's defense, he didn't call as many bad plays with the Cardinals or Steelers. Plus he was pretty hilarious on Hard Knocks by stating that player needed to be on the practice field (Hue famously disagreed). The QB and surrounding talent make quite a difference. Somehow the Pioli/Cassel "era" is overshadowed by Haley's assumed ineptitude.
Great read! It's funny, pretty early in Mahomes' first year as a starter I stopped worrying about 3rd and long. The feeling used to be the let down of knowing a punt was coming on the next down, to the expectation, not hope, but EXPECTATION, that they will convert it no matter the distance. After a lifetime of Chief's fandom, this is truly a magical time to be a Chief's fan, and it's only just getting started!
Love the graphic, it shows just how much beyond other quarterbacks he really his. I can't wait to see what this year brings with the new O line. I kind of expect some of the gaudier stats to drop this year because of a more balanced and efficient offense. We will see, the season always holds some unexpected surprises.
It's definitely a great graphic to demonstrate just how different Mahomes is in terms of performance/efficiency in high-pressure situations. There's a similar graphic for when KC is trailing. Mahomes gets better then while other QB's get worse.
It is important to have the narrative of this play alongside the chart you led with. My guess is that if you scour the film, you will see Drew Lock making several attempts like this. He, of course, has neither the accuracy nor the arm strength of Mahomes, and so these throws get picked at a high rate. Ten yards isn't nothing, and giving your defense that much better field position is better than an incompletion or an interception.
The greatness of Mahomes is not just that he makes these throws, but that he can do it efficiently.
Finally, Sam Darnold has no Patrick Mahomes in him. Woof. Good luck with that Carolina.
Is it really fair to call it a drop? It looked like the defender might have slightly tipped it, but I'm viewing it on my small phone screen. Still an incredible play regardless
It was a tough catch, and based on every view I've got it was not tipped. So it's a very, very high standard to call it a "drop" for sure!
May not be tipped but the defender’s hand certainly could have obscured Travis’ view. I think that may have contributed to those two circus-throw drops in the SB.
Absolutely obscured the view, for sure!
Hmm if he takes the checkdown and leaves 4th and 6 at the 45, don't you think Reid goes for it? I mean he should. Isn't that a better play than throwing a YOLO ball? Just because he can, doesn't mean he ALWAYS should. Although it makes the game a crap ton more fun when he does.
I think that is the next evolution in Mahomes game. Being able to just papercut a team to death. I think Brady is the ultimate papercut guy. He just throws 6 yard pass after 6 yard pass and then, all of a sudden, he's in the other teams Red Zone. Then when those safetys/linebackers start to creep up - Boom - ball over the top to Gronk or Moss.
Eh... I don't know if the receiver even makes the 45 (defenders are going to be on him the moment the ball arrives in all likelihood), and even if he did that would be 4th and 7 regardless (and on 4th down that yard matters!).
It's also worth noting that by buying time Mahomes creates a scramble opportunity where he can gain almost as much yardage as he would by throwing the "checkdown," all while continuing to allow for a best case scenario.
I agree that Mahomes shouldn't always extend the play when there's an open option underneath. However, in this scenario (3rd and long) it's absolutely the wrong decision to throw it well short of the sticks, which is why defenses provide that option so frequently.
All this is precisely why Mahomes is so much better on 3rd down than any other QB (including Brady, by a country mile, as Brady is actually below average on 3rd down). The "paper cut" stuff doesn't actually work in practice on 3rd down, as good as it sounds in theory.
Now, if you're talking about 1st/2nd down, then yes, the correct decision would have been to take the easy yards!
Point taken. Third down might not be the correct time to check down. My mind was more on 1st and 2nd down. I wasn't very clear considering the example given was a 3rd down play. Taking the checkdown on 3rd down to give yourself a chance on 4th is definitely situational. Even with how great Mahomes is on 3rd down, I don't think you are going to convert many 3rd and 20s.
I think there's a lot of merit to that, though the proof is in the pudding for Mahomes' 3rd down methodology being demonstrably better than anyone else's. BUT, doesn't mean there's not room for improvement!
I swear I just laugh at so many of his throws lol. Just ridiculous ability.
It makes my job hilariously fun.
Another aspect to that particular play is that I think it’s unlikely that Mahomes attempts that throw to anyone but Kelce. While Tyreek can levitate to an insane degree the defender would block his view of the ball. No one else has the hands to bring it in.
Mahomes will show some trust in those situations simply because it's the best of a number of tough options, but Kelce is generally the go-to (though he was good targeting Sammy in those spots as well).
But Seth, Ryan Tannehill is just as good a quarterback. Their stats are basically the same!
Except where it counts 😂
As always, Patrick continues to excel in ways that stretch the imagination. Thanks for giving us even more confidence in the pending season
Aren't there situational "field position" times where taking the available yards makes more sense though? Like if you're near your own goal line, giving your punter some room to work vs trying a "hero" play? Or if you're in borderline field goal territory and taking the underneath pass makes it a relatively makeable FG vs a coin flip? I agree completely that taking the chances "most of the time" (especially with how good Mahomes is at converting them) makes tons of sense AND is fun as hell to watch. Just wondering if there are any stats (or even what you've seen in film reviews") on how well Mahomes is able to recognize the situational times to be conservative rather than aggressive, or is that one of the few things he needs to try and improve on? The other factor would be how well does Mahomes recognizes the likelihood of a successful catch? What I mean is that in this example, even if Kelce makes the catch, it wasn't an easy catch by any means - it would've been a relatively high degree of difficulty. When it turns into a scramble drill, taking the shot to convert makes more sense if a guy is "relatively" open, vs when a guy only has a tiny window that would require both a great throw AND a great catch to convert. Not sure how they would track or quantify these aspects, but I suspect Mahomes is above average in both of those aspects as well.
One could find an exception to the rule, sure. But this is more a discussion of the general rule and demonstrating why he's so, so, so much better statistically on 3rd down than everyone else.
One cool thing about EPA per play is that it SHOULD (in theory) help account for those different situations in terms of down and distance and field position.
In terms of the last part, even a 50/50 ball is generally going to be better than for sure giving up the possession (again, depending on down and distance as well as field position and score).
Dumb question, but do you know whether EPA accounts for the likelihood of a defensive holding penalty, which would (should?) theoretically rise the longer a pass play is extended?
Or PI for that matter....
EPA accounts for the result of the play rather than the methodology of the play. So basically, however far you moved the ball.
And there are no dumb questions! Except for the dumb ones. But this wasn't one :)
I am a long time Chiefs fan, and 3rd and long seemed to almost always lead to a punt. Now it is time to be extra focused on the play because you just KNOW that Mahomes is going to do something awesome! For so many years we would always check down, get 8 on 3rd and 10 or 12 on 3rd and 15. It was so frustrating. Now I expect us to convert. What a great time to be a Chiefs fan.
This is what people mean when they say Mahomes' greatness passes the eye test. Personally I think a major factor in why Mahomes was underrated coming into the NFL was that scouts didn't take the time to evaluate his situational awareness. It requires a significant time investment to understand this kind of context (as you know Seth), and it's much quicker and easier to live by a hard and fast rules like, "We don't take guys from air raid offenses" and move on to the next guy that fits into whatever subjective guidelines your team has conjured up.
Someone, somewhere on John Dorsey's staff was doing this homework in 2016 and saying as little as possible in preparation for the big move up. Just imagine what you could do if you used your special analysis powers on draft prospects, Seth?
There were SO many reasons teams missed on Mahomes, most of them bad ones hahaha.
It will never cease to amaze me how intuitive Mahomes is with his body. Take a look at how he shifts his entire weight sharply (and gracefully!) to the right as he throws in order to get the lateral velocity on the ball that most quarterbacks can't seem to get. Watching him throw cross-body so effortlessly makes one wonder why other quarterbacks can't seem to do it. Just one more unthinkably difficult thing he normalizes.
He's just a phenomenal athlete, a natural player at basically every sport.
I know you specifically said his athleticism isn't the point of this particular post but sometimes the grace with which he moves just breaks my brain. [shrug emoji]
Seth, I love you, and I never thought I would say this, but...
I cannot read another article about how good Patrick Mahomes is. I simply cannot do it.
I say this with love as an OG fan of yours. Lol otherwise keep up the great content!
haha I very much understand the feeling. Some days I wonder if I can write about yet ANOTHER way Mahomes is great.
hahahaha in all fairness he just provides...SO MUCH material
Right? It's CONSTANT. I never want to take it for granted. But it is definitely interesting how people eventually grow numb to it, whereas they NEVER got tired of reading about Alex Smith (due to the constant debate I'm guessing).
that's such a valid and interesting point!