Built different: How Patrick Mahomes' situational awareness sets him apart on 3rd down

I take a brief look at the way Mahomes makes his decisions on 3rd down and why it leads to so much more success than others on 3rd and long

Patrick Mahomes is better than anyone else on 3rd down. That’s just a quantifiable fact, let’s get that out of the way immediately.

(stats and charts courtesy of rbsd.com, a place you should really check out if you haven’t)

As we’ve talked about before here, EPA per play is basically a way of measuring how much more likely a team was to score after a play (so the higher, the better), and completion percentage above expected measures how likely a passer was to complete a pass (based on historical data) vs whether they actually did so (so again, the higher the number the better). In short, up and to the right is good on this chart.

Where’s Mahomes? On an island completely by himself on the top right, practically in his own chart. I bring all this up to note that anyone who debates the idea that Mahomes is by far the best 3rd down quarterback in football is, quite simply, either ignorant of the data or lying (to you or to themselves).

I wrote last year for The Athletic about how Mahomes’ success on 3rd down, particularly 3rd and long, is something that is a feature of his game rather than mere luck or being a product of Andy Reid’s system. As you can read here, it’s a function of the fact that he’s always throwing to the sticks regardless of the down and distance, rather than checking down.

One thing that I left out of that article that I should have included (and I’m now rectifying) is that not only does Mahomes consistently throw to or past the sticks on 3rd down, but he’ll actively ignore options short of the first down marker in favor of trying to wait for something more likely to create a first down.

As I studied Mahomes’ incomplete passes for our annual “best plays/throws that didn’t count,” (which much like last year is going to be a banger) I came across a play that perfectly encapsulates how Mahomes operates on 3rd down, and it was too good an opportunity to pass up. So let’s talk about how Mahomes’ situational awareness makes him different from other quarterbacks in practice.

This play ends with a drop by Kelce (it happens even to the great ones), but it’s an incredible one by Mahomes for multiple reasons. Now keep in mind, it’s very easy to be distracted by the mind-melting throw Mahomes makes here. On the run, Mahomes is able to drive the ball with velocity and accuracy beyond the outstretched arms of a defender in very, very tight coverage. It’s an incredible throw.

But don’t let that distract you from what led up to the throw. I know, it’s hard! But don’t! For our purposes, it’ll help if we look at the entire play from the all-22 angle. Because then you can get an idea of what I’m talking about when I say Mahomes’ situational awareness is a genuine weapon on 3rd down.

There’s a lot to see here, so let’s take it one step at a time. The Chiefs are facing 3rd and 20 here, one of those down and distances that teams don’t have a lot of play calls for. That’s in part because of how difficult a situation it is (pass rushers get to pin their ears back, corners know they can cheat deep, etc), but it’s also in part because teams would be crazy to spend a ton of time designing/practicing plays for situations that they’re rarely going to see.

The defense unsurprisingly sends a bunch of defenders deep in what looks like some sort of cover 3 zone, keeping the Chiefs’ receivers from getting over the top of the defense while still flooding the area of the field at the first down marker. Look at what Mahomes is seeing as he hits the top of his drop and after he takes a moment to survey the field.

The Chiefs appear to have some sort of confusion underneath, as a pair of receivers end up at the same spot on the field at different levels. That said, note what’s occurring here. The defense is paying a great deal of attention to the two Chiefs who are running routes beyond the sticks, with neither being remotely open. In the meantime, the defense has allowed the underneath routes to come wide open. It’s a tempting throw for a quarterback to make, seeing options open 10-12 yards down the field.

However, in the immortal words of Admiral Akbar, it’s a trap.

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Defenses love to give up checkdown or short-yardage throws in 3rd and long situations. Look at where the defenders are relative to both underneath receivers. With how fast NFL defenders swarm, they would be all over those routes even as the ball was in the air, and the chances of actually gaining a first down would be virtually miniscule. A 12-yard completion on 3rd and 20 is about as useful as a 2-yard completion.

All quarterbacks are aware of this in theory, but in practice it’s an incredibly difficult thing to pass up open receivers in favor of the unknown of players who aren’t currently open. This is especially true in situations where pressure is starting to get home, which is precisely what is happening here as Austin Reiter is about to allow pressure up the interior. Once the pressure starts, most quarterbacks will take the safe option and pray their receiver makes a play.

And this is where Mahomes’ special situational awareness combined with his freakish ability to avoid pressure comes into play. Rather than taking the throw that would almost certainly lead to a punt, Mahomes instead opts to buy time in the hope that another option will become available.

Travis Kelce sees that the play has turned into a scramble drill, and he throws a quick fake that moves the defender in the wrong direction for a fraction of a second, then heads deep towards the middle of the field.

As you can see in the first two clips, the move doesn’t buy Kelce space, but it does earn enough of a window for a quarterback of Mahomes’ caliber to deliver a catchable ball and at least give the Chiefs a shot at moving the chains.

The play unfortunately ends in a drop, but the process here is what’s so crucial. By passing up open players in favor of trying to buy time in the face of pressure, Mahomes makes what is on the surface a poor decision by risking a sack or a scramble for minimal gain. But in reality, Mahomes’ decision is an acknowledgment on his part that on 3rd and 20 at that spot of the field there’s not a real difference between a 10 yard gain (and a punt) and a 5-yards-lost sack or short scramble (and a punt). Because there’s not much difference in those two outcomes, the real “risk” is to throw the ball to route that has about a .5% chance of getting a first down.

Yes, we can talk about the special escapability (it’s not a word, but it should be) and arm talent Mahomes has that makes this play work. But it’s his situational awareness and understanding of the realities of the game that make him even dare to attempt it. And all too often, those mental aspects of his game are ignored as we marvel at the physical. But his consistently next-level processing of a complicated game is every bit as impressive as his big-armed theatrics. And it’s just as much a reason why there’s no one close to him in the league on 3rd down.