The Chiefs' QB did exactly what everyone said he needed to vs Green Bay, but failures elsewhere led to the conversation continuing as though he didn't.
Not sure I fully agree with third failed drive analysis. Gary makes Kelce whiff on the right side of the line, so I am not sure that following Thuney works. Maybe, maybe not. It would have been a heckuva play by Gary, but their linebackers were so good all game.
That said, the larger point of the piece is exactly right. Whether he gets it or not, the success or failure of that play had nothing to do with Mahomes.
I don't think Gary makes it there remotely soon enough considering the angle involved. And I completely agree, their LB's were exceptional all game. Closed on a lot of stuff really well and really altered some plays.
It's so weird that almost the entire offense is struggling at different times. Fid Sammy Watkins open things up that much that we didn't see this kind of stuff?
Not really, I just think that the offense's struggles is getting into everyone's heads and they're pressing. It's most noticeable with Kelce imo, but the rest of the O has seemed to be off for a few weeks now and I think the 'narrative' is seeping into their play.
Hopefully a few good weeks with right the ship, and it obviously helps if Mahomes is playing as well as he can, and did, on Sunday.
I don't think so. I think it was an issue of turnovers, then Mahomes just fell off a cliff for 2 weeks. Now Sunday's game was a more "lots of little weird issues" that I think aren't necessarily related (I can't really find a thread there that has commonality), that one should HOPE doesn't continue.
Also, I think Wilhelm makes a good point about pressing.
I don't put this all on the lack of a star #2 WR, but ... a symptom the recurs every week is PM not getting the reads he is looking for very often. Now that teams have doubled down on just shutting down TH and TK, he either doesn't find or doesn't trust the other guys. Of course his reaction to that happening is what has been dissected (too long waiting, missing/waiting too long for check downs, losing rhythm, forcing the ball). Having Watkins I'm certain would not be a cure all - but would give us a better option, and force the D to divide their attention.
Seems like Kelce got bearhugged on drive #6, right? Anyways, I think Mahomes needs to look for Kelce as much as possible. He's the best route runner and mismatch KC has. In so many of these replays, when you see him in the route, he's open often. Once upon a time, the narrative was that you couldn't have success with 2 high against KC because Kelce ate it up.
But then they double-team Kelce on a crucial down and we complain that Mahomes is locking onto receivers and not being aggressive. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
I don't really care what the narrative around Mahomes is. Even when doubled, Kelce is still sometimes open (see failed drives 1 and 6). He's really our possession receiver. He should be used as such.
I believe it was the first drive in which he threw to McKinnon and he couldn’t beat to the LB, Kelce was pretty open for an easy first. But Seth’s right, Pat looked much more like himself than he had in the previous 2 weeks.
They've been playing Kelce as aggressively as possible, and when refs allow it's tough for him to get open. He generally lives open to be sure, but it's been tough with teams bending coverage towards him and playing so physical past 5 yards.
Great breakdown as always Seth. I left the stadium very happy in that I felt like Mahomes stayed in the pocket the entire game whereas previous weeks I felt like he was breaking the pocket (when he was) breaking the huddle.
I think there is a difference between a narrative and a false narrative, and THIS is the reason I enjoy your articles. You do so much leg work for us as fans, and although I don't agree with all the points you make here your articles always makes me challenge my preconceptions, or at minimum notice something I hadn't before, and ultimately help me gain some perspective around a given situation. As we have established, you are the man. Thanks again.
Couple notes:
1st failed drive: GREAT play by the LB. Very few backs are getting away there, and up to this point McKinnon has proven his ability to run through tackles. It's a good gamble by Mahomes, just doesn't pay off.
3rd failed drive:
1. Kelce AND Burton missed blocks on one of the Packers emerging players Rashan Gary off the edge, allowing him to come free and clean up after Gore's hesitation in the hole. Any doubt CEH is patient enough to pick this up?
2. What the hell is Pringle doing playing in line TE??? He did a serviceable job on this play, but shouldn't that be Noah Gray?
4th failed drive: any doubt that CEH makes that guy miss and walks into the end zone? Moot point but I think after several failings by the backs in space this past game we may be due for a CEH appreciation article. Thoughts?
On a 3rd and 1 and on a 4th and 1, we failed on running plays with very tight formations. It's an Andy staple and sometimes it works, but I would like to see the field spread a little more putting pressure on a defense to cover the whole field.
Re RBs - I don’t understand why more fans are not shouting for Gore. Apart from this one failed drive his #s have him as our best RB this year - by a long way. Why is Reid not playing him more? Seth?
They've given him more chances than I thought they would, given how they generally do things. I think he's not as good as the narrative but has shown a little burst and some vision, which is huge.
I think once CEH is back the spot will be his, though. And I sincerely hope they keep involving the RB's so much in the passing game AND sticking with gap/power in the run game.
I totally understand how reasonable minds can differ in terms of the specifics. That's one reason I'm a big believer in showing your work as much as possible, so people can see what you mean when talking about various plays (or examples of how you view things).
And yeah, the inline thing with Pringle made me crazy hahaha. I definitely think that CEH probably makes at least a couple of those plays. RB's generally don't move the needle much, but I think he's got a little more explosion than Darrel and a little more wiggle/fight than Jerick, and it came through on those plays.
Seth, did he genuinely play bad against the Giants? On my second review of the broadcast, I thought it was better my emotionally charged 1st view. Did the all-22 vindicate him compared to the narrative?
He was better than he was vs the Titans, but still not good. Still had some misses on receivers (though again, not many or as blatant as TEN) and happy feet in the pocket.
I think the three plays where running backs get tackled before they get a first down or touchdown kind of disproves Josh Brisco's mantra of "running backs don't matter." Well, they don't...until they do. For 95% of carries/catches, they are mostly fungible. But that 5% is what makes the difference. I'm not saying CEH would make those plays but those are the types of plays where you could justify investing in a running back with a late first or second round pick.
I can't get behind this take. Brisco is not saying they don't matter. It's just that the difference is so small that using premium draft capital on those small differences is misusing resources. CEH has been underwhelming (though still our best RB probably). He probably doesn't make those plays.
You said "you could justify investing in a running back with a late 1st or 2nd round pick." We did. He's not very good. There's not a lot of difference between him and our other RBs since he's probably not making these plays either. If you look at some of the charts Ben Baldwin puts out on RBs, there's not an obvious distinction between high and low round RB picks, like you might otherwise see with QBs, WRs, OTs, DEs, CBs, etc.
I wouldn't say it disproves it given the small sample size. I think it's largely true that running backs don't move the needle much at all, but these are definitely examples where (in theory) the superior player pays off.
And I think you're right to differentiate between whether it's a "CEH vs them" issue or simply a slightly better, more well-rounded player being better in those situations. I think you can get better players in many places for RB's (which goes back to why it wasn't the best decision to grab one in the first round), but you can see where those small differences can matter at times. Still much more rare than a WR/QB or even a TE (in the Chiefs offense) moving the needle, and there are so many competent RB's that you should be able to get by. But occasionally, it matters.
Right. And you can get baseline running back play from acquiring backs in a lot of different ways. But, on occasion, when you need that extra 5% (and the game doesn't always dictate that you need it), there are certain guys who are going to give that to you and they are (mostly) Top 50 picks.
There were definitely a few plays that game where that "extra" would've mattered. To this day I'm annoyed with Kareem Hunt, as he absolutely had that extra.
I can't listen to Brisco, so it's not for me to comment on his mantras or takes. But I DO like your use of the word 'fungible'...even if 95% sounds a bit high.
It's tough for someone like me get to all wrapped up in which draft picks were incorrect or even recall where the Kelces or Fentons were picked; this team can't be THAT badly constructed since 2013, can it?
He's a very good friend of mine, and one of the most genuine dudes in the business. But even he understands that his show isn't for everyone! Tastes vary, and that's no worries :)
Several years ago the narrative was that Tom Brady was washed up. The Pat's were self destructing every Sunday, and the dynasty was declared "over." They won the SB that year.
It's never going to be easy, and it's unlikely to go pole-to-pole as front runners every year, but Patrick Mahomes II did not suddenly forget how to football.
It's time to go on a run, and what better place to start than Raiders week.
The most notable improvement to me was Pat's pocket presence. He used smaller, controlled movements within generally clean pockets and was far less likely to bail out. This enabled him to keep his eyes up and downfield as opposed to dropping them when evacuating the pocket. When the eyes drop, even for just a split second, it impairs field vision both in terms of defensive movements and those of his receivers.
How much do you think Pat adjusting to the new O-line and vice versa is affecting his timing and as a result creating hesitancy on his part? Because as we know, he who hesitates is lost, especially in the NFL. Based on my single viewing of the game in real time, it appears they're getting more comfortable with each other.
The key words in that first paragraph were definitely "smaller" and "controlled." He was much more contained, and it mattered a great deal.
I think adjusting to the new OL has been a chore. The interior has been fantastic, and the tackles have been generally solid, BUT he's missing Mitch Schwartz (no one was going to replace him) and Brown's style is completely different from Fisher's, while they're players of a similar caliber.
On the Hardman play, Josh was clearly trying to push a narrative there, and even kept defending it in the replies. He is practicing eisegesis instead of exegesis (hope you appreciate that, Seth :)). Hardman slows down and should have kept running. Also probably DPI on that play. Mahomes made the right decision and a good throw IMO.
Looks like Mecole slowed down on his route. Had he kept running hard the entire way I think it's an easy catch and TD. How can you play w/Patrick for more than three weeks and not realize you NEVER QUIT RUNNING HARD?
Great point - reminds me of Romo a few weeks back patiently explaining why Robinson blew his crossing route at the goal line, by slanting into the endzone enabling the defender to get in front of him, rather than running straight along the goal line to provide an unobstructed target for PM. To your point, why is there so little discipline in the route running for the back-up receivers. Especially given the game the Chiefs try to play every single week!!
The one thing I keep wondering about with the Wr's play is that Reid seems to only call plays that demand curls or out routes. West Coast Offense is famous for their slants. So why doesn't Reid call more slants. I would think speedy, shifty players like Hardman and Hill would excel at 5-7 slants then have huge yards after catch.
They do sometimes, but I've actually been frustrated by the lack of slants in the offense as well. One thing is that teams are playing a lot of zone in the interior with their LB's cheating to the pass, and so some of those routes aren't there. But I'd love to see more, specifically on non-RPO plays.
In the bigger picture, the current struggles of the offense are something we’ve seen before, just on a smaller scale. For the past three years there have been stretches where the offense is out of sync, with a different player making a drive killing mistake each possession. Just rewatch the first quarter of the Houston playoff game. The problem is that before they would flip a switch and everything would click for three or four drives, putting the game out of reach. With the exception of the second half vs the WFT that hasn’t happened this year. The question is whether this is just variance that will eventually correct itself or whether there is a deeper problem. I’m still inclined toward variance but the wheel needs to start turning soon.
Excellent as always ...Agree with your overall point that PM's decisions and mechanics have improved (can't argue with the tape!) I do think the overall lack of rhythm still comes back to PM' and his overall mojo for lack of a better term(!), resulting in the turnovers, drops and stalled drives. We've all seen what this O can do when they click in previous years - even when we win this year, there are still only a few quarters where things click and gain rhythm. I think the multiple failure conditions that get individually dissected each week have to be looked at collectively to be understood. The interceptions, fumbles, missed receivers and drops are all part of same thing, rather than individual phenomena to be solved individually. Hoping we see that turn around, and bring the rest of the O along with it!
Not sure I fully agree with third failed drive analysis. Gary makes Kelce whiff on the right side of the line, so I am not sure that following Thuney works. Maybe, maybe not. It would have been a heckuva play by Gary, but their linebackers were so good all game.
That said, the larger point of the piece is exactly right. Whether he gets it or not, the success or failure of that play had nothing to do with Mahomes.
Nah he converts that with ease. They were getting good push inside and no way Gary gets to him if he just hits the hole.
I don't think Gary makes it there remotely soon enough considering the angle involved. And I completely agree, their LB's were exceptional all game. Closed on a lot of stuff really well and really altered some plays.
It's so weird that almost the entire offense is struggling at different times. Fid Sammy Watkins open things up that much that we didn't see this kind of stuff?
Not really, I just think that the offense's struggles is getting into everyone's heads and they're pressing. It's most noticeable with Kelce imo, but the rest of the O has seemed to be off for a few weeks now and I think the 'narrative' is seeping into their play.
Hopefully a few good weeks with right the ship, and it obviously helps if Mahomes is playing as well as he can, and did, on Sunday.
I don't think so. I think it was an issue of turnovers, then Mahomes just fell off a cliff for 2 weeks. Now Sunday's game was a more "lots of little weird issues" that I think aren't necessarily related (I can't really find a thread there that has commonality), that one should HOPE doesn't continue.
Also, I think Wilhelm makes a good point about pressing.
I don't put this all on the lack of a star #2 WR, but ... a symptom the recurs every week is PM not getting the reads he is looking for very often. Now that teams have doubled down on just shutting down TH and TK, he either doesn't find or doesn't trust the other guys. Of course his reaction to that happening is what has been dissected (too long waiting, missing/waiting too long for check downs, losing rhythm, forcing the ball). Having Watkins I'm certain would not be a cure all - but would give us a better option, and force the D to divide their attention.
Seems like Kelce got bearhugged on drive #6, right? Anyways, I think Mahomes needs to look for Kelce as much as possible. He's the best route runner and mismatch KC has. In so many of these replays, when you see him in the route, he's open often. Once upon a time, the narrative was that you couldn't have success with 2 high against KC because Kelce ate it up.
https://www.sharpfootballanalysis.com/analysis/patrick-mahomes-deep-coverage-travis-kelce-tyreek-hill-2020/
But then they double-team Kelce on a crucial down and we complain that Mahomes is locking onto receivers and not being aggressive. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
I don't really care what the narrative around Mahomes is. Even when doubled, Kelce is still sometimes open (see failed drives 1 and 6). He's really our possession receiver. He should be used as such.
I believe it was the first drive in which he threw to McKinnon and he couldn’t beat to the LB, Kelce was pretty open for an easy first. But Seth’s right, Pat looked much more like himself than he had in the previous 2 weeks.
They've been playing Kelce as aggressively as possible, and when refs allow it's tough for him to get open. He generally lives open to be sure, but it's been tough with teams bending coverage towards him and playing so physical past 5 yards.
It definitely felt like we should have won more of those one v one plays in space. GB made those plays and kept it close.
They did a really nice job.
Great breakdown as always Seth. I left the stadium very happy in that I felt like Mahomes stayed in the pocket the entire game whereas previous weeks I felt like he was breaking the pocket (when he was) breaking the huddle.
I did as well! It was a different look.
I think there is a difference between a narrative and a false narrative, and THIS is the reason I enjoy your articles. You do so much leg work for us as fans, and although I don't agree with all the points you make here your articles always makes me challenge my preconceptions, or at minimum notice something I hadn't before, and ultimately help me gain some perspective around a given situation. As we have established, you are the man. Thanks again.
Couple notes:
1st failed drive: GREAT play by the LB. Very few backs are getting away there, and up to this point McKinnon has proven his ability to run through tackles. It's a good gamble by Mahomes, just doesn't pay off.
3rd failed drive:
1. Kelce AND Burton missed blocks on one of the Packers emerging players Rashan Gary off the edge, allowing him to come free and clean up after Gore's hesitation in the hole. Any doubt CEH is patient enough to pick this up?
2. What the hell is Pringle doing playing in line TE??? He did a serviceable job on this play, but shouldn't that be Noah Gray?
4th failed drive: any doubt that CEH makes that guy miss and walks into the end zone? Moot point but I think after several failings by the backs in space this past game we may be due for a CEH appreciation article. Thoughts?
On a 3rd and 1 and on a 4th and 1, we failed on running plays with very tight formations. It's an Andy staple and sometimes it works, but I would like to see the field spread a little more putting pressure on a defense to cover the whole field.
I absolutely agree.
Re RBs - I don’t understand why more fans are not shouting for Gore. Apart from this one failed drive his #s have him as our best RB this year - by a long way. Why is Reid not playing him more? Seth?
They've given him more chances than I thought they would, given how they generally do things. I think he's not as good as the narrative but has shown a little burst and some vision, which is huge.
I think once CEH is back the spot will be his, though. And I sincerely hope they keep involving the RB's so much in the passing game AND sticking with gap/power in the run game.
You are, as ever, far too kind!
I totally understand how reasonable minds can differ in terms of the specifics. That's one reason I'm a big believer in showing your work as much as possible, so people can see what you mean when talking about various plays (or examples of how you view things).
And yeah, the inline thing with Pringle made me crazy hahaha. I definitely think that CEH probably makes at least a couple of those plays. RB's generally don't move the needle much, but I think he's got a little more explosion than Darrel and a little more wiggle/fight than Jerick, and it came through on those plays.
Seth, did he genuinely play bad against the Giants? On my second review of the broadcast, I thought it was better my emotionally charged 1st view. Did the all-22 vindicate him compared to the narrative?
He was better than he was vs the Titans, but still not good. Still had some misses on receivers (though again, not many or as blatant as TEN) and happy feet in the pocket.
I think the three plays where running backs get tackled before they get a first down or touchdown kind of disproves Josh Brisco's mantra of "running backs don't matter." Well, they don't...until they do. For 95% of carries/catches, they are mostly fungible. But that 5% is what makes the difference. I'm not saying CEH would make those plays but those are the types of plays where you could justify investing in a running back with a late first or second round pick.
I can't get behind this take. Brisco is not saying they don't matter. It's just that the difference is so small that using premium draft capital on those small differences is misusing resources. CEH has been underwhelming (though still our best RB probably). He probably doesn't make those plays.
Is that not basically what I said?
You said "you could justify investing in a running back with a late 1st or 2nd round pick." We did. He's not very good. There's not a lot of difference between him and our other RBs since he's probably not making these plays either. If you look at some of the charts Ben Baldwin puts out on RBs, there's not an obvious distinction between high and low round RB picks, like you might otherwise see with QBs, WRs, OTs, DEs, CBs, etc.
I wouldn't say it disproves it given the small sample size. I think it's largely true that running backs don't move the needle much at all, but these are definitely examples where (in theory) the superior player pays off.
And I think you're right to differentiate between whether it's a "CEH vs them" issue or simply a slightly better, more well-rounded player being better in those situations. I think you can get better players in many places for RB's (which goes back to why it wasn't the best decision to grab one in the first round), but you can see where those small differences can matter at times. Still much more rare than a WR/QB or even a TE (in the Chiefs offense) moving the needle, and there are so many competent RB's that you should be able to get by. But occasionally, it matters.
Right. And you can get baseline running back play from acquiring backs in a lot of different ways. But, on occasion, when you need that extra 5% (and the game doesn't always dictate that you need it), there are certain guys who are going to give that to you and they are (mostly) Top 50 picks.
There were definitely a few plays that game where that "extra" would've mattered. To this day I'm annoyed with Kareem Hunt, as he absolutely had that extra.
I can't listen to Brisco, so it's not for me to comment on his mantras or takes. But I DO like your use of the word 'fungible'...even if 95% sounds a bit high.
It's tough for someone like me get to all wrapped up in which draft picks were incorrect or even recall where the Kelces or Fentons were picked; this team can't be THAT badly constructed since 2013, can it?
Give Josh a chance! :)
Sorry, didn't know he was a friend. But can't listen.
He's a very good friend of mine, and one of the most genuine dudes in the business. But even he understands that his show isn't for everyone! Tastes vary, and that's no worries :)
Several years ago the narrative was that Tom Brady was washed up. The Pat's were self destructing every Sunday, and the dynasty was declared "over." They won the SB that year.
It's never going to be easy, and it's unlikely to go pole-to-pole as front runners every year, but Patrick Mahomes II did not suddenly forget how to football.
It's time to go on a run, and what better place to start than Raiders week.
The most notable improvement to me was Pat's pocket presence. He used smaller, controlled movements within generally clean pockets and was far less likely to bail out. This enabled him to keep his eyes up and downfield as opposed to dropping them when evacuating the pocket. When the eyes drop, even for just a split second, it impairs field vision both in terms of defensive movements and those of his receivers.
How much do you think Pat adjusting to the new O-line and vice versa is affecting his timing and as a result creating hesitancy on his part? Because as we know, he who hesitates is lost, especially in the NFL. Based on my single viewing of the game in real time, it appears they're getting more comfortable with each other.
The key words in that first paragraph were definitely "smaller" and "controlled." He was much more contained, and it mattered a great deal.
I think adjusting to the new OL has been a chore. The interior has been fantastic, and the tackles have been generally solid, BUT he's missing Mitch Schwartz (no one was going to replace him) and Brown's style is completely different from Fisher's, while they're players of a similar caliber.
On the Hardman play, Josh was clearly trying to push a narrative there, and even kept defending it in the replies. He is practicing eisegesis instead of exegesis (hope you appreciate that, Seth :)). Hardman slows down and should have kept running. Also probably DPI on that play. Mahomes made the right decision and a good throw IMO.
Looks like Mecole slowed down on his route. Had he kept running hard the entire way I think it's an easy catch and TD. How can you play w/Patrick for more than three weeks and not realize you NEVER QUIT RUNNING HARD?
And now I re-read and see where you already mentioned this. On the bright side, I am kind...
He had a similar play on the first drive in the Super Bowl.
Great point - reminds me of Romo a few weeks back patiently explaining why Robinson blew his crossing route at the goal line, by slanting into the endzone enabling the defender to get in front of him, rather than running straight along the goal line to provide an unobstructed target for PM. To your point, why is there so little discipline in the route running for the back-up receivers. Especially given the game the Chiefs try to play every single week!!
That's something I very much appreciate about Romo, getting those nuances out there.
I would tend to agree, it's subtle but I think it's enough.
The one thing I keep wondering about with the Wr's play is that Reid seems to only call plays that demand curls or out routes. West Coast Offense is famous for their slants. So why doesn't Reid call more slants. I would think speedy, shifty players like Hardman and Hill would excel at 5-7 slants then have huge yards after catch.
Chief in the North--thoughts?
Maybe Reid calls them and I don't see it too?
They do sometimes, but I've actually been frustrated by the lack of slants in the offense as well. One thing is that teams are playing a lot of zone in the interior with their LB's cheating to the pass, and so some of those routes aren't there. But I'd love to see more, specifically on non-RPO plays.
In the bigger picture, the current struggles of the offense are something we’ve seen before, just on a smaller scale. For the past three years there have been stretches where the offense is out of sync, with a different player making a drive killing mistake each possession. Just rewatch the first quarter of the Houston playoff game. The problem is that before they would flip a switch and everything would click for three or four drives, putting the game out of reach. With the exception of the second half vs the WFT that hasn’t happened this year. The question is whether this is just variance that will eventually correct itself or whether there is a deeper problem. I’m still inclined toward variance but the wheel needs to start turning soon.
Excellent as always ...Agree with your overall point that PM's decisions and mechanics have improved (can't argue with the tape!) I do think the overall lack of rhythm still comes back to PM' and his overall mojo for lack of a better term(!), resulting in the turnovers, drops and stalled drives. We've all seen what this O can do when they click in previous years - even when we win this year, there are still only a few quarters where things click and gain rhythm. I think the multiple failure conditions that get individually dissected each week have to be looked at collectively to be understood. The interceptions, fumbles, missed receivers and drops are all part of same thing, rather than individual phenomena to be solved individually. Hoping we see that turn around, and bring the rest of the O along with it!
Thank u Seth! I thought he played better but couldn’t prove it. This I a clear case of sometimes es numbers lie