Bad narratives, Patrick Mahomes, and the Chiefs offense vs Green Bay

The Chiefs' QB did exactly what everyone said he needed to vs Green Bay, but failures elsewhere led to the conversation continuing as though he didn't.

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One of the main reasons I started doing this strange, interesting, and often wonderful job is the issue of narratives. More specifically, bad narratives.

Narratives have a tendency to control how people view the game. If a team/player enters a game with a certain narrative around them, people tend to view the game through that lens regardless of what really happens. And the national discourse around said player/team will continue as though the narrative is true, even if it is not. And so my job often becomes being someone who says, “well, actually…” a great deal of the time, as bad narratives are so plentiful in an age of 24-hour content that one can build a career around combating them.

Which brings us to Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

I’ll great straight to the point: Mahomes played well against Green Bay.

I’ll pause for a moment to allow for the protests about the offense only putting up 13 points, Mahomes needing to “take what the defense gives him” or “make the quick throws,” and perhaps a few thoughts about pocket presence to die down. Because after charting every snap by Mahomes and breaking down all eight (8!!!!) of the Chiefs’ failed drives on Sunday, the reality is Mahomes did, in fact play well and actually did all of the things the national media (and myself, and many others) have been shouting for him to do for several weeks now.

So why is the discourse following the game that Mahomes played poorly? That’s where narratives come in. Mahomes played badly against Tennessee and the New York Giants. That led to a national discussion surrounding a player who had never really struggled before, with every nuance being broken down in borderline excruciating (but necessary) detail. I wrote about him as well, so it’s not as though I wasn’t a part of it. He played badly, and it needed to be talked about.

But here’s where narratives become important and start to take hold; Once the conversation became about how Mahomes was struggling, that’s what people started to look for. And any time one enters a game looking for something, that’s what they’ll most likely see. So when the Chiefs’ offense struggled against Green Bay, the immediate reaction was “welp, Mahomes played badly again.” It makes sense in a way, given that’s what we’d seen the last 2 weeks.

But it’s not what happened. Of course, those who walked into the game with a certain expectation and thought they had that expectation confirmed will believe I’m just making excuses for Mahomes. To change the mind of a person requires overwhelming evidence (if it can be done at all. Often it cannot). And so let’s talk about every dropback Mahomes took Sunday, how he did all the things pundits have been hammering him for not doing (absent perhaps 2 snaps throughout the entire game), and why the offense failed regardless by looking at each failed drive.

If you are unfamiliar with how I chart and write about quarterback play, the Week 1 review explains the methodology and reasoning, as well as the definitions used. The goal, as ever, is to separate the QB play from what is around the QB to get a better gauge on how he did on his own. You can find the previous views by clicking the links below:

Week 1 film review

Week 2 film review

Week 3 film review

Week 4 film review (one of the best performances of his career)

Week 5 film review (a performance where he struggled for him, but the good still outweighed the bad)

Week 6 film review (wherein the fire-breathing dragon returned)

Week 7 film review (the worst game I’ve ever seen Mahomes play)

There is now Week 8 film review due to scheduling constraints, so I hope you’ll take me at my word that Mahomes struggled again, though to a slightly lesser degree than he did against the Titans.

Let’s look at the numbers, then talk about what Mahomes did differently Sunday.

The first thing that should stand out to anyone who has been watching Mahomes closely this season is the “happy feet” and “missed shots” number. The reason is that over the last several weeks Mahomes had struggled mightily in those two specific areas, and they were the primary culprit in his struggles. Mahomes’ pocket movement was leading to pressure, and he was bailing from otherwise clean pockets. Further, he wasn’t trusting his eyes to pull the trigger on short-to-intermediate routes and holding the ball too long looking for the bigger play, and it left a lot of yards on the field.

First, let’s talk about pocket presence. Against Green Bay, the offensive line was overall excellent. However, it shouldn’t be underrated that Mahomes’ vast improvement in pocket movement played a key role in how little the Packers’ pass rush affected the game.

On this early 3rd and long, the line does a generally good job handling movement by the Packers. Note that they try to utilize a long-developing stunt that travels to the outside of the pocket. This sort of movement has been successful in spooking Mahomes into abandoning otherwise clean pockets and running right into pressure over the last few weeks.

Instead, here, Mahomes keeps his movements smaller while keeping his eyes down the field. He steps left when the pass rush moves the other way, but controls those steps and doesn’t move so far that the looping defender has an easy shot at him. Creed Humphrey is able to cut him off late as Mahomes moves back to his right and steps up (again, with smaller movements) while surveying the entire field. Because he’s kept his eyes up and moved in a way that helped his blockers, he’s able to find Tyreek Hill and convert the first down.

This sort of movement and calm in the pocket was typical for Mahomes throughout the day against Green Bay, and it was a huge departure from how he’d played the previous two weeks. As one can see from the charting, there wasn’t a single snap I marked as a “happy feet” snap, and Mahomes’ movement helped the line all day. Yet, despite such a large improvement in an area that had been a weak point, very little discussion seems to be surrounding an important issue.

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The other area Mahomes was significantly better than he’d been the previous two weeks was the (now almost-dreaded) “take what the defense gives you” process of quarterbacking. Much of the narrative from the Chiefs’ game has surrounded a single throw Mahomes made relatively early in the game on 1st and 10 (and more importantly, the throw he passed up).

Josh Cohen @JCohen_NFL

A couple good example of Mahomes 'trying to do too much' and hit home runs when the base hits are there. This will still be a chunk play if he hits a wide open Kelce (rather than going for it all).

I have a great deal of respect for Josh, and there’s a lot to be said about this play. There’s been a great deal of discourse surrounding it already, so I’ll keep my piece to this: I understand why people want him to hit Kelce on the intermediate route when Kelce is that open, and that’s the choice I’d prefer. However, on 1st and 10, I also understand why Mahomes took that shot given the feet and angle of the deep safety, and it was nearly a huge play that arguably could have been completed had Hardman not slowed up momentarily.

That said, this was a single play throughout the game, and an entire dialogue started around it that implied very strongly that Mahomes was doing this throughout the game. And the reality is he wasn’t. This was one of only two missed receivers on the day for Mahomes, and the issues he’d previously had not pulling the trigger on checkdowns and/or shorter routes simply wasn’t there on Sunday.

This play is demonstrative of a dozen different times Mahomes “took what the defense gave him” and either checked down to the running back or threw the ball right off the top of his drop to a short route. It was a common theme throughout the day, and frankly one of the reasons they failed to convert on some key downs was because Mahomes took the easy throw and his playmaker couldn’t win an advantageous matchup (we’ll get into that later).

Yet somehow, because of a single play, the narrative persists that Mahomes was passing up open player after open player underneath, when that’s just not accurate the way it was against the Titans and (to a slightly lesser extent) the Giants. And here we see the power of a narrative. If one goes into a game expecting something, all it takes is a single play to confirm the preconceived notion and everything else that occurs can be missed.

That’s precisely what happened with the conversation surrounding Mahomes. He’d struggled for a pair of games and was one of (if not the) primary issue with the offense for those two weeks. People thought that might be the case again and, when the offense struggled against Green Bay, jumped to a conclusion that isn’t reflected on tape.

When one charts every snap, Mahomes was efficient with the ball, moved well in the pocket, and generally did a very good job executing the offense. He wasn’t a fire-breathing dragon (and so wasn’t up to his best standards), but was overall quite good. And, of course, when the game was on the line and required a little fire…

So if Mahomes played well, why did the offense struggle? That should be the next question one should ask, but one should also be careful to not automatically reject the former because the latter occurred. The quarterback position is highly important, but it’s not the only thing one should look at. And sometimes, even when a quarterback is playing well an offense can struggle.

When one asks “why did an offense only score 13 points,” one is really asking “why did so many drives for the offense end in failure?” And that’s a perfectly valid question, one that requires looking at each drive to determine what went wrong. And when we do that for the Packers game, we see a game in which the opposing defense made some very good plays and the supporting cast struggled to come through for Mahomes. Let’s look at each “failed” drive.

First failed drive

This drive ended with a turnover on downs, but it’s worth noting that on one of the most pivotal plays of the drive (3rd and short), Jerick McKinnon was unable to win a 1x1 in space when Mahomes got him the ball into the flat with room to move.

This is the exact sort of “take what’s there” throw people have been clamoring for from Mahomes, and it resulted in a tackle just short of the sticks. The 4th down play call (a rollout that the Packers saw coming immediately) had literally zero chance of success the moment the ball was snapped, and the drive ended.

Second failed drive

This is the infamous “Mahomes didn’t throw to Kelce” drive. And it’s quite true that the Chiefs could’ve advanced the ball past midfield and more with a throw to Kelce on 1st down. However, on 2nd down, Mahomes delivered a dart to Kelce across the middle of the field that would have put the ball in close to the same spot on the field, and Kelce dropped what should have been an easy catch with room to run.

Then, on 3rd down, Tyreek Hill slipped on his route as the ball was being thrown, and a potential conversion (the placement of the ball was good had Hill not slipped) didn’t come through.

So while one can bemoan Mahomes’ aggressive first down play on this drive, he made a read and throw that should have erased it the very next play, and a drop killed that. Then his most reliable receiver couldn’t keep his feet, and the Chiefs were forced to punt.

Third failed drive

This drive ended quickly, but didn’t need to. On 3rd and 1, Derrick Gore was given the ball on what should have been a conversion, but wasn’t. Watch the line here vs Gore’s movement.

This is one of those plays where the runner gets greedy and doesn’t trust blocking that is there. Gore should have followed the pulling Joe Thuney into the middle of the line, where Trey Smith and Creed Humphrey had created a pocket that he should have been able to submarine into for a relatively easy first down.

Instead, Gore cut back outside. This put the pressure on Byron Pringle to win a block on the line against an edge defender, which was a predictable failure. It also allowed other defenders to detach from their blocks (which weren’t designed for that cut) and swarm. The run was stuffed for a loss, and the drive ended.

Fourth failed drive

This drive started deep in the Packers’ territory and should have ended in points. It didn’t, and was a huge part of the fanbase’s frustration with the offense. However, it’s worth noting that once again Mahomes took what the defense gave him on 3rd and goal, and gave his running back a chance to win a 1x1 with an advantage.

This should be a touchdown. The Chiefs had utilized a rub route to slow down the linebacker, and Williams has an angle to the end zone. However, his lack of explosion (and a great burst from the linebacker) cause that angle to get partially erased as the play develops.

Williams still has just enough of an angle to where if he gets low and dives towards the pylon he has a decent shot at getting to the end zone or so close that a 4th down “go for it” call seems easy. However, he doesn’t get low and instead just leans into contact from the linebacker, losing the physicality battle and getting knocked out well over a yard shy of the goal line.

Fifth failed drive

(This is time-consuming, no? Do you see why people don’t want to really break down what occurred? Because it’s HARD. It takes a lot of time and energy to gather all the evidence and present it. Which is why narratives are so difficult to overcome, and persist.)

This drive failed first with a drop by Josh Gordon on what should have been a first down, then on 3rd and 4 Andrew Wylie got beat on one of the few genuinely poor snaps by the offensive line all day. He was beaten quickly and inside to the point that there wasn’t much room for Mahomes to make a play.

Sixth failed drive

This drive ended quickly, but it was once again not a Mahomes issue. Rather, he made a nice read against the coverage and gave Travis Kelce a timing throw that they’ve completed approximately a million times.

One could argue that the ball should have been placed farther outside, but this pass was put on Kelce’s numbers and was there a moment after he’d turned. Again, it’s something they’ve done numerous times as teammates, and Kelce just couldn’t haul it in. It was a frustrating day for Kelce that he was fortunately able to vindicate with a big play late.

Seventh failed drive

Yet ANOTHER drive that was killed by a drop, this one being Mecole Hardman on 3rd down. It was yet another quick “take what the defense gives you” read by Mahomes that didn’t convert through something he couldn’t control.

Eighth failed drive

This is one of the few drives that could perhaps be laid at Mahomes’ feet, as he just barely missed Tyreek Hill down the field and then didn’t find McKinnon on a checkdown on 3rd down.

Here we are

We’ve gone through the game in excruciating detail, but that’s what is necessary when combating bad narratives. One has to parse through things at almost a play-by-play level to demonstrate that “untruth” of something. And the reality is that, despite the national discourse that’s REALLY reacting to the two prior weeks of Mahomes’ play, he was quite solid on Sunday and addressed the two major issues that had been plaguing him in previous weeks. It was simply a bad day for nearly everyone else, and a day where the bad timing of poor execution by others on the offense against a defense that played very well led to a poor day of production.

That said, seeing Mahomes play much more like himself was encouraging. And if that continues, I don’t believe it’s likely the rest of the offense continues to fail at crucial moments. We’ll see what the Raiders game holds, but the Mahomes we saw Sunday was a very different player than the Mahomes we saw in previous weeks. Everyone just missed it.

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