What's wrong with Mahomes? Actually, absolutely nothing. Reviewing Weeks 6 and 7 and busting narratives

People are talking like Mahomes hasn't been excellent when, in fact, he has

At a certain point, the expectations surrounding Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense were bound to become so outsized that failure (or perceived failure) is inevitable.

Over the last week, I’ve had countless people ask me what’s “wrong” with a Chiefs offense that is the best in the league by Football Outsiders’ efficiency metrics (the best metri I’m aware of in terms of team stats that account for every snap, opponent and game situation). Further, I’ve had people asking me what’s “wrong” with Mahomes after a pair of games in which he (combined) completed 73.5% of his throws at a clip of 9.88 adjusted yards per attempt (which would lead the league by a solid margin) while throwing 3 touchdowns and no interceptions.

To be fair to people asking questions, Mahomes did only throw for a 225 and 200 yards in those games, and there weren’t many “big plays” to look back on where he did something mind-bending as we’ve come to expect. I mean, there were some.

This throw went underappreciated in the moment, in part due to an excellent catch by Hardman (we’ve been trained to believe that if the receiver makes a great catch it’s not a great throw, which is silly). Mahomes rolls out left by design on this play, but due to some miscommunication up front there’s pressure on him quickly. With no time to reset given the defender bearing down on him, Mahomes makes one of his patented “shortstop to first” throws 30 yards in the air to Hardman, who hauls it in.

Throws like this weren’t the rule in the last two weeks, though, which has (along with the less-than-eye-popping stats) led to some people asking what’s wrong with Mahomes. The answer, when one looks at things that actually track quarterback play (accuracy, pocket presence, going through reads, not missing open players, making plays when things break down) is “absolutely nothing.”

Charting every dropback by Mahomes for things that chart these actual reflections of quarterback play (check out the Week 1 review of Mahomes for an explanation of each thing charted and why), it quickly becomes apparent that Mahomes made almost no mistakes in the last two weeks. Like, very nearly literally zero.

Mahomes vs Buffalo

Mahomes vs Denver

The Buffalo and Denver games presented some different game situations (we’ll talk more extensively about Denver, which was a very odd game in general), but there was a running theme throughout both of them. That theme was Mahomes playing with almost no mistakes, taking what the defense gave him, and ensuring that games the Chiefs were already controlling stayed that way.

Both the Bills and the Broncos played Kansas City as “safely” as they could, trying to take away deep routes and consistently allowing space underneath to operate. Both teams, while they did so in a variety of ways, appeared to be trying to utilize the new “playbook to beat Mahomes,” which is to rarely blitz and to send guys back into coverage while hoping to get pressure with 3 or 4, while doing whatever it takes to prevent big plays.

This methodology can work if Mahomes gets caught up looking down the field for targets that are well covered. But it also leads to easy shorter gains.

On both of these plays, the defense is already backpedaling at the snap, hoping to stop the Chiefs’ speedy weapons from running past them. The Chiefs have consistently tried to run a very vertical offense this season, and as teams have adjusted (and as the line has struggled and been in flux, along with Mahomes’ own pocket presence occasionally failing him) that’s been harder to do. The last two weeks, the Chiefs have made adjustments of their own, and it’s resulted in easy, non-memorable yards.

Perhaps the most important thing to note in both games is the “happy feet” snaps, or lack thereof. As I wrote after the Raiders game (in which Mahomes had 7 “happy feet” snaps that resulted in 4 missed shots being charter), Mahomes has been too quick to bail out on pockets at times this season even when the protection is there, as he and the offensive line have taken turns failing to execute against pass rushes. It’s made shaky pass protection look worse than it already was.

Against the Bills and Broncos, that issue was (almost) non-existent. Mahomes did have one 3rd down against Buffalo that was killed by him bailing out too early and missing an open Byron Pringle, but beyond that he generally hung in the pocket and delivered whether there was pressure or not (and against Denver, the pressure was definitely there early). Andy Reid has helped by initiating more moving pockets and short, quick reads. And by and large it’s worked.

It’s worth noting that against the Bills, the Chiefs were running the ball with exceptional efficiency and had control of the game throughout. On the occasions where more was needed to move the ball, Mahomes did what was necessary.

With 4:24 remaining in the 4th quarter and the Chiefs leading 23-17, Mahomes faced a 3rd and 12 that needed to be converted to help put the game on ice. It was time for creation, and Mahomes responded on a play where his initial reads weren’t available. He dragged the play out in a way we’ve seen time and again, then found Pringle (someone who is earning more looks, as I wrote about here) for a huge first down.

It should be noted that a few plays later, facing 3rd and 7 on the Bills’ 27-yard-line, Mahomes scrambled for a first down that effectively ended the game. That sort of play doesn’t pop on the box score, but has massive implications for a win vs a loss. In fact, Mahomes saved multiple plays against the Bills, creating yards or operating under pressure.

On this touchdown to Kelce, you can see Mahomes ALMOST bail out of the pocket as it starts to collapse around him. Instead, though, he resets and makes a more subtle move inside to buy himself a moment. There’s pressure coming from the other direction, but that doesn’t stop him from continuing to survey and finding Kelce for what ends up being a touchdown.

This sort of snap is important, especially within the context of what Mahomes was struggling with at times this season. After several weeks where he had happy feet much more often than is normal for him, Mahomes appears to be settling down even when the pressure is there (which it has been, it’s just been much less noticeable other than a few times).

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The Denver game is an interesting one to break down statistically. It featured several signature Mahomes moments, to be sure.

However, this was a quieter game overall for Mahomes. Perhaps it’s that lack of statistical production that led to people questioning whether he’s playing well, or the (totally lacking context) stat that the Chiefs were 0/8 on third down against Denver, a marked difference from their usual efficiency on third down.

However, when one considers the actual game flow and what occurred on third down, things snap into focus regarding Mahomes. One of those failed third downs came on this play, in which Clyde Edwards-Helaire dropped what would have been a touchdown on a phenomenal created play by Mahomes.

It’s worth noting what a difference this one drop made for Mahomes’ stat line, even utilizing more “advanced” measures like expected points and QBR. However, it wasn’t a poor play by him, it was in fact an excellent play that Edwards-Helaire wasn’t ready for (it seems like every receiver has at least one “holy crap that surprised me” drop with Mahomes. Hopefully he’s got that out of the way now).

Another “failed” third down against Denver was Mahomes’ scramble for about 4.8 yards. This led to a 4th and short conversion (a touchdown run by Darrel Williams). So neither of those failed third downs were the result of bad quarterback play. In fact, both were good plays by Mahomes.

Additionally, the way the Denver game played out has to be taken into account when discussing statistics. The Chiefs ran 11 passing plays on drives prior to their 4th drive. When that drive began, thanks to touchdowns by both special teams and the defense, the Chiefs led 24-9 and the game was effectively over already. Further, one of those drives ended on the very first play when Nick Keizer fumbled away a solid gain.

In other words, the Chiefs had two drives that really mattered against the Broncos, scoring a touchdown on one of them. There just wasn’t enough of a competitive game there to gauge anything about the offense, and they spent the rest of the day running plays they’ve utilized repeatedly (with one exception on a nifty throw across the line to Kelce).

All of this is a long road to a short thought: When looking at pocket presence, accuracy, making plays when necessary, avoiding mistakes, and making big-time throws, Mahomes has been very good over the last two weeks. What’s been happening is much more a demonstration of how game situation can overall team opponents can alter a quarterback’s statistics, and why utilizing those states to gauge play in single (or several) games is foolish.

So take a deep breath, know that Mahomes has been great, and go be the “well actually” person the next time someone says he hasn’t been as good as of late.