78 Comments

I will be using any and all of these in the coming weeks, a great synthesis of the facts!

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Appreciate you, and I hope it's useful!

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Seth out here doing the Lord's work. Thank you for this bounty of goodness.

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Because it's a media-based award, my hope is that by getting everything together (and I still didn't get all of the insane stats tbh) will move the needle somewhat? Even a little? even just one voter?

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Hi preacher, this here's a choir!

The defensive stat is indefensible. I don't dislike Spags, but he and veach don't seem to be on the same page regarding scheme.

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I'm an Eagles fan who subscribes because I love watching Mahomes and will always be a fan of Andy Reid. I can't disagree with your assessment. I feel that Mahomes is the Michael Jordan of football: a unique, unprecedented talent who does things every game that no other player could do. He probably needs at least one or two more titles to get to GOAT status by the time his career is done, but that seems like the trajectory. He's the best player in the NFL every year.

That said, even Michael Jordan didn't win MVP every year. It's absurd that he didn't, but there were also some deserving competitors who were close enough in a given season that the desire for MVP variety kicked in. The (biased) case I can make for Hurts would rely on the tangible stats of team record (which obviously counts for something, or you'd see MVPs from sub-500 teams); better ball security by far than the other candidates; and the intangible that Hurts' numbers have suffered a fair bit from Philly having the luxury of taking its foot off the gas in the passing game in several of their victories (even the close ones where they ran to close out the games. Sure, that's a benefit for overall record, but doesn't help in the stats department).

In any case, the injury news this week probably places Hurts out of the picture as a candidate. I don't really see much of a case for the way-too-inconsistent (but still great) Allen, and while Burrow should get some credit for operating behind whatever Cincy's o-line is doing, they'd probably have to finish as the 1 seed for him to vault over the top.

In short, barring a KC collapse down the stretch, it seems like Mahomes's award to lose for all the reasons you cite.

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But don't we look back at the MVP awards that Barkley and Malone won and think they were dumb and given to the wrong player? Just because the NBA voters made mistakes doesn't argue for the NFL voters to make mistakes this year.

That said, if there were a most improved player award, I think it is a close race between Hurts and Tua, and given the Fish's losing streak, I think it would have to go to Hurts. It was only six months ago that the Eagles were kicking the tires on other alternatives, debating whether Minshew might be better, and arguing that this was a prove-it season for Hurts or else the Eagles would package their first round picks to go get a guy in the draft this year. (Seriously, what were the Saints thinking?)

I love how far Hurts has come - it was something like 20 or 24 games ago that they had to completely rejigger the offense because he could not run a typical NFL offense. It was January when the offense looked totally helpless against the Bucs in the wild card game. And now the dude is amazing. It was inconceivable 11 months ago that the Eagles would be where they are today. (Seriously, what were the Titans thinking?) Good on Hurts, and good for the Eagles, and I'd be the first to sign up for an Andy Reid bowl in February. (Fun trivia question - the last coach not named Andy Reid to win a Chiefs-Eagles game was Marty Schottenheimer back in the 1990's)

But for all that, it still has to be Mahomes. Mike Sando said on The Athletic Football show yesterday that the Chiefs had the worst EPA in the league on defense and special teams this season. (It could have been DVOA or another efficiency stat). The offense lost Hill and the offensive line has not lived up to expectations. And yet, the Chiefs are in the mix for the top seed heading into the new year. Mahomes is just better at playing football than anyone else in the league.

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Good points. The rejiggering of the offense for Hurts causes me to reflect on the Chiefs’ need to rejigger their defense to fit their roster.

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I'm hoping they rejigger their DC. Because until that happens, I have little confidence that the player development that needs to happen will be able to happen.

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Two rookie starting CBs. Chris Jones is the only talented pass rusher on the D line. Drafting a RB (CEH) in the first round instead of getting defensive depth. Fire the DC, that is the answer?

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The corners actually haven’t been terrible. They’ve made some mistakes, but the issue with them has been scheme more so than player talent.

With the DL, it’s possible that we just can’t get DL talent. And obviously Karlaftis is a rookie. But in PFF’s rankings, over half the teams in the league have at least 4, 5, or 6 DL/EDGE players in the top 117 in the rankings. The Chiefs (and Rams) are the only teams with only 1 player in that group. Maybe that’s Veach being bad at his job. But I’d bet that coaching has something to do with it, given that players seem to go elsewhere and be at least moderately successful.

Was CEH a bust? Sure. But Willie Gay was drafted in the 2nd, L’Jarius Sneed in the 4th, Mike Danna in the 5th, and Thakarius Keyes in the 7th. When 4/6 picks are defense (Lucas Niang was the other 3rd round pick), it’s hard to say they didn’t try to get defensive depth.

All that to say, I’m already on the record saying we need some better trench players on both lines (particularly EDGE and OT) if we want to be successful as a team. But when our defense is consistently somewhere between historically terrible and below average year after year, it’s got to be time to look at the DC at some point.

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If the coaching is so bad, why is Sneed playing so well? Not to mention some of the other quality defensive backs the Chiefs have seemed to steal and seemed to be coached just fine. Gay and Bolton have issues but overall the LB is vastly improved. I agree the DL needs help, but is it coaching?

The Clark trade wasted a huge amount of draft capital and money. The CEH draft pick was a waste of a first round pick. The draft capital spent on Brown was also a loss. Those are all first round picks that should have been used on the DL because rarely do you get steals in the draft at that position because that is the foundation of a defense.

Chiefs 1st Rounds picks

2018 - no pick

2019 - no pick

2020 - CEH

2021 - no pick

2022 -McDuffie (21) and Karlaftis (30)

It is not a coaching issue, it is a front office issue. The focus now needs to be in the trenches, DL and OT. That is where the draft picks and money need to flow. You have to give the coaches talent to coach. I have no doubt Veach knows that and it will be addressed.

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It’s true that we look back and wonder how anyone else won an MVP during the Jordan era. But hey. Malone and Barkley et al weren’t completely crazy choices, either.

I’ve been astonished at Hurts’s rapid progression. In a year when there was serious doubt that he would emerge as Philly’s answer at QB, that he is in the MVP conversation at all is a bonus. And with his work ethic and commitment, I have zero concerns about him falling off once he gets the long term contract he has shown he deserves. Perhaps an even bigger statement has been made by GM Howie Roseman. Many were ready to run him out of town a couple of years ago. Now it seems clear he’s among the best in the business.

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Hurts definitely merits mention and is a great 2nd place because he does so much, but has more help in many ways. The problem with the others deserve shots at the MVP is Mahomes only has a single MVP. The give others a chance argument happens if he has several. Rodgers and others are given more MVPs even when others deserved consideration. I think this goes to the Kelce/Tyreek bias that they did so much to bolster Mahomes because they were cheat codes. After Mahomes gets 3-4 then give others a chance. Appreciate your comment tho. Jalen will be in the running for several years and will win down the line.

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Hope Jalen gets better fast!

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I concur on the sentiment that MJ didn't win MVP every year, but it's worth noting this year pat will surpass most of his MVP year numbers and likely break Drew Brees yardage record. I think he won't win in other years for reasons you mention I don't think this year should be it though.

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I really appreciate your insight into the situation from a non-biased (at least in terms of KC's side of things) point of view! And I think those arguments you make are some of the better ones for Hurts. I'd throw in the way that his unique skillset allows for them to build a unique and specific offensive attack that's blended perfectly with their talent (something that definitely shouldn't be ignored!).

I do think that barring a massive shift in how things end (Burrow/Allen leading their teams to all W's while others stumble down the stretch) it's mostly a 2-man race between Mahomes and Hurts. One interesting thing is that if Minshew (a decent QB) struggles, that would actually STRENGTHEN Hurts case. Something to watch for.

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I think you’re right about the 2-man race and about the effect that Minshew could have on voters (for Hurts as MVP if he struggles, or against if he succeeds). In almost every sport, the arguments about MVP often boil down to the definition. It could be taken to mean “the best player in the league” (always Mahomes, IMO); or it could be interpreted as “the most important player on the best team” (probably Hurts); or most literally as a kind of WAR recognition (which is probably also Mahomes this year). The main thing working against Mahomes is that the NFL seems most often to go with the “best team” angle. (Whereas Coach of the Year is often synonymous with “most improved team”).

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I can see it now. I'll just share the link to the article, they won't read it, and nothing will be accomplished. Sounds like par for the course with sports arguments.

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I wish MVP voters would spend as much time educating themselves as Seth spent writing this iron clad case for Patrick Levon Mahomes II. It's really a no brainer.

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I think I'll refer to #9 most. I've noticed that people who want to debate MVP choices typically ignore anything closely resembling statistics.

BTW, Seth is Chiefsaholic a CITN subscriber? Thinking a few of us might need to pitch in and renew for him.

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Great minds think alike, Krystal. 😉

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One thought I had was maybe chiefsaholic missed out on the black Friday sale and only had one way to get the 12 bucks for the full subscription.

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NOW I understand your post! By the way, did Frank loan him an uzzi?

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It's pretty obvious who the MVP is.

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And the winner for "Best Argument" goes to...# 9, the eye test! Stats are great, and nobody collects them like Pat, but just his sheer flair and daring as he plays the position on any given Sunday is what separates him from all other QBs. There's a reason the Chiefs are featured in the maximum number of primetime games every season and that is to showcase the premier player in the NFL. No one else plays the position with his level of intellect, confidence and composure so consistently. Pat is must-see TV every week in the NFL just like Jordan was in the NBA; both of them undisputed, generational talents. If you're still not convinced, just watch.

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"the Chiefs are featured in the maximum number of primetime games every season"

That is, until the Chiefs play a Broncos team that is so bad that even the Chiefs weren't enough to keep them from being flexed.

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I could not believe that the NFL scheduled the full five prime time games for the Broncos without seeing how they would perform. Almost like giving a new QB a huge extension before seeing how they play. Oh, wait…. 🥴

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The Broncos are so embarrassingly pathetic, not even the Mahomes Effect could rescue their primetime slot. Kinda heartwarming, isn't it?

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So at minimum, Patrick is definitely the MVP for the networks! 👍😉

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Slam dunk in the epic Dr. J or Jordan or Dominque with some power style.

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I'm really hoping we have a year soon where we won't have to point to Mahomes being able to overcome a terrible defense and serious OL issues as part of his case for MVP.

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I know right? It’s a broken record at this point, especially with the OL.

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Yeah, it’s sickening to think that we have the QB who could have won 4 in a row already if not for a defense and OL that just can’t hold up against good opponents.

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They might go undefeated

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Frankly, put Mahomes on the Eagles and they probably would this year, including getting a SB win. Hurts has certainly been good, but his supporting cast is ridiculously balanced. A good OL, decent running game, and a defense that can compete with anyone.

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Wonderful article Seth!

My only complaint is that #9 doesn't have more gifs to prove your point XD

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Seth, please immediately forward this article to all the MVP selectors! (And have they already voted? I hope not until after game 17.)

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Dec 20, 2022·edited Dec 20, 2022

I agree w/Mr. Edler. WTH Seth? We're out here, paying our 12 bucks a year for quality content, you're mailing #9 in w/no GIFs. INCREDIBLY DISAPPOINTING. (All caps, 2 words, for emphasis) I think you need to shake the vacation sand off and get back in the groove. And again, can't come up w/10 takeaways? Two articles in a row. It's just... well we expect better, that's all. It's disappointing.

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That's ridiculous!

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IKR? How could Seth do this to us?

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As I'm reading this at lunch the headline on the TV tuned to ESPN says "Should Hurts still be the MVP favorite".

Quick answer No.

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Saw the same debate too! It's kinda wrecked how most of the "conversation" discounts pat just because he's been doing it since he came in the league.

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Patrick LAVON Mahomes II. Lavon? Seriously? Who knew!?

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You can thank silky__p for that name.

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