Love your work! Not that I would normally ask but given the magnitude of that game and how it will live on as one of the greatest games ever played could you chart Josh Allen as well. That dude is no Mahomes but dang he played lights out as well. Would love to see your charts and comparison on the duel.
That's a really good question! I don't think I'll have time this week, but I'm interested enough to maybe go for it. If I do find the time (I would have to give up writing another article this week though) I'll post the results in the comments here!
Definitely an off season article. Not somthing that should take away from writing about the current week like how Joe Burrow's ears could be bleeding by how fired up you got everyone. GET LOUD ARROWHEAD!!
Ugh, it was a dumb thing tbh. Burrow commented months ago that SEC stadiums are louder than pro stadiums. I QT'd it (it was re-circulating a bit) with some version of "hey Chiefs fans Burrow doesn't think you're loud," which I felt was silly enough to be fun with just a twinge of truth.
Bengals fans got very, very angry with me for what they felt was me misquoting him. Though the quote was in the QT, so...
I also had the same question. Is the national narrative right? “Allen played at the same level as Mahomes?” My eye test from being at the game and my thought that the Bills defense are widely considered the best against the pass in the league makes me think it is not true.
Same here. While I'd not want to detract from all the awesome Chiefs content at this most exciting time of the year, I'd be interested to see how you chart Allen in comparison. My impression in just the live game action was that Allen played a great game but didn't have (or need to have) the same level of impossibly spectacular plays that Mahomes made. That's not at all to detract from an incredibly talented QB playing a great game, but the KC defense made it too easy on him at times IMO.
My first impression after the game was something like “Mahomes clearly did a bit more than Allen on the passing front, but Allen does have that running back aspect of his game where they can run draws to get multiple first downs per game, so maybe that evened it out.” Then I remembered that Mahomes was a beast on the ground this game as well with more yards than Allen along with first downs and a touchdown. Without even considering the talent differential in defenses faced Mahomes was slightly better. Add in the defense talent level and the performance by Mahomes was transcendent.
I just rewatched (and in condensed- which really makes the dichotomy b/w the two teams stand out. And I say “teams” b/c KCs defense was actually crazy stout) and I think you’re going to be surprised… I remember the game as a “toe to toe” “blow for blow” but it really wasnt… And then I looked at the stats (3rd down conversion, 4th down att, punts, share of the yds/car/rec/TD, drive summary, etc) and its kind of miraculous that game wound up like it did in the end.
Chiefs played near perfect (minus some DB issues that I doubt occur with 🍯🦡). Bills definitely did not. And the Bills were 13 seconds from winning.
I agree but mostly because I saw something that indicated that Josh Allen had a higher PFF grade, I don't know what goes into their grades, but I've very curious how he would grade out with your system.
Seth, one thing that stuck out to me on that final play is how we rarely we see Mahomes do those kind of lob, back shoulder type throws to receivers. At least in my memory, it’s not something the Chiefs rely on and instead rely on scheming someone more traditionally open. I think there may have been a pass like that to Pringle in the Steelers game but it wasn’t in tight coverage like this one.
It’s something Burrow and Chase did to us a bunch, I wonder if the Chiefs will dial up more of those plays in the future? Seems like a powerful option when you have solid chemistry between QB and receiver (or in this case, TE).
Seth and company mentioned that on the Time's Yours podcast yesterday. I think it was Nate who said he heard from Andy Reid - that is indeed a new wrinkle that we saved for the playoffs, it would seem. Who knew Kelce could perform a 270 degree spin, and retain his balance and composure to haul in a TD catch like that? Not the Bills, clearly! LOL
Kelce is excellent at those types of plays, but the remaining Chiefs receivers aren't a great fit for them (despite Hill's ball skills he's a body catcher, and the rest are inconsistent). I think you'll see more of them the more receivers show they can do that. The Pringle TD early was one like that in a way (not back shoulder, but throw up for him to grab it).
I don't watch any NFL games besides the Chiefs so I didn't fully appreciate how special Mahomes (and Allen) are. For reasons, I watched the Vikings-Bears 'highlights' from week 18. Dalton and Cousins - woof! It was shocking to see 4th down plays that don't convert (Blake Bell and the coaches are so glad we won). Even the highlight throws were bad.
As you show - Sunday night's game was extra special. Seemed a lot like the Rams and the AFC champ games from '18 except this time the Chiefs won!!
That's one thing interesting about Mahomes. If he stays in KC another 15 years then we'll get so spoiled with greatness that it'll be really tough to adjust to whoever follows him. It's already difficult to watch utterly feeble QBs like, say Carson Wentz, after you're used to watching Mahomes.
Yeah, Manning to Luck is another example. Even Bledsoe to Brady. I just personally think that Mahomes will be the GOAT (even if he falls well short of Brady's number of rings) and it will be hard to watch his successor because of that.
The "throw to the window" snapshot was great. How often does Mahomes do this or attempt this in a game? How often do other QBs do this? How common is this type of throw? Thx
Follow-up: On an historical basis, when did this type of throw originate? Was Lenny doing this in his prime? Was this part of the west coast schemes from Walsh? Was Montana or Elway or Manning doing this? I realize that this is beyond what you do as you specialize in the Chiefs, but I find this fascinating since you pointed it out. Maybe someone else will know.
I feel like the first time I noticed QB's doing this intentionally and well regularly was Kurt Warner and Steve Young. I don't think either of those guys get recognized for how incredibly accurate they were. I'm sure people were doing it before then but those two were the first ones that stood out dramatically to me
Throwing guys open is something Mahomes does tremendously well and consistently. It varies by QB, but only the best generally do it consistently and this sort of throw (placing it on a rope while throwing them open) is rare.
Thank you for another great write up. I especially appreciated how you showed that this happened against a defense that was playing well, and executing their plan. So much of what I've heard about this game is how bad the defenses played. The chiefs D could have played better, but they were missing a couple of important pieces. Anyway, glad to see credit given where it is due. Both QB's were historically amazing, and Mahomes in particular did this against top level competition.
If you add the level of competition and the stakes, I think this is the best game he has ever played. That is saying A LOT! If Tom Brady was our quarterback, the Bills would be in the AFCCG.
IMO they need to not have trash-tier refs, respect Chase downfield and ensure he's doubled when needed, stay aggressive on offense throughout and don't treat a 2 score lead as if it's safe.
I went back and read the article(s) after the last game which might give some insight. Seth titled them Self Inflected, Part 2 and Self Inflected Part 3...Besides a different set of referees, Spags needs to get over his stubborn self, adjust for Jamarr Chase and Chiefs need to quit shooting themselves in the foot. Because I Do NOT want to be reading a Self Inflicted, Part 4 newsletter come Monday!!💛❤
Great column to celebrate an amazing performance for the ages. Hate to inject this into the discussion, but what would this column say if we had come up short in the final '13'? Maybe the kick lands at the 10 forcing a reception - and pins us with 7 sec instead of 13 - then we focus on how many Bills were open up the middle etc- With a win there is little to no media focus on defense - and to your point, we know we can be burned by Burrows if we're not fully on our game. Hoping to see Mathieu and Fenton back!
The charting would still be the same on my end! That's one advantage to doing it this way, it doesn't matter about the W or the L. It's all about how the guy plays.
Gotcha. Generally speaking following a win I'll talk about the why of that, and with a loss the why of that. So odds are we'd be talking about miscommunication on th eback end.
I knew he had multiple reads but 16 seems crazy. Zero missed shots. Only 1 happy feet!! Your analysis is always eye opening and backs the Perfect Game narrative. I will never take PM2 for granted. And watching him find Josh Allen after the game reminds me that not everything he does that's special can be charted.
The sheer little kid "that's not fair" frustration is so obvious on the 3rd down overtime conversion to Kelce. He guesses right goes full speed to the roll out, and Pat throws around him anyway. He just throws his arms down and jumps up and down. The next step for a kid would have been t flop on the ground and freak out! :) It really wasn't fair and thank God 15's on our team!
I continue to wonder if that early-season slump was essential to what's happening now. We all know the narrative was over-blown, but I think it's fair to say if a team had to pick between out-of-structure Mahomes and in-structure Mahomes, it was an easy choice: while in-structure Mahomes has been very good, out-of-structure Mahomes has been generational. That he adjusted so drastically (and so quickly!) and is now performing at an elite level both inside and outside of structure? Just, sheesh, man.
I think NFL defenses did a nice job adjusting and other than bad turnover luck the slump wasn't nearly as long as the national narrative (just my opinion, of course! He was bound to have a stretch of bad luck and came out of it as good or better than ever, which is promising.
All those Jets & Giants fans had to have someone nearby in which to invest their emotions. Now they’re angry and protecting their overblown egos. JMO
"Blue Oyster Cult: The Reaper" in the back ground EVERY TIME Mahomes gets introduced from now on. You heard it here first. :)
Good call ... but you only heard it here first if you didn't see it posted by me yesterday in the Athletic comments!!! More cowbell!!!
True! (Guitar did here), I will say that one had a second life after SNLs immortal More Cowbell skit!
I won't tell.
You guys know that the lyric to that is "don't fear the reaper" right???
And we don't have to! :)
But everyone else should!
Ha!
Don't fear the Reaper?.....not really the right message 😅🤣😂
YES!
Love your work! Not that I would normally ask but given the magnitude of that game and how it will live on as one of the greatest games ever played could you chart Josh Allen as well. That dude is no Mahomes but dang he played lights out as well. Would love to see your charts and comparison on the duel.
That's a really good question! I don't think I'll have time this week, but I'm interested enough to maybe go for it. If I do find the time (I would have to give up writing another article this week though) I'll post the results in the comments here!
Might be an offseason project.
Definitely an off season article. Not somthing that should take away from writing about the current week like how Joe Burrow's ears could be bleeding by how fired up you got everyone. GET LOUD ARROWHEAD!!
Man, Bengals fans were MAD that quote tweeted that old quote of his to use for that purpose.
??? I missed the memo on this. Could you explain?
Basically Seth tweeted an old tweet of Burrows saying how sec stadiums get louder than any nfl stadium. Bengals fans got all in a tissy about it.
WHO DEY? Why, they're the fans who are way too easy to troll.
Ugh, it was a dumb thing tbh. Burrow commented months ago that SEC stadiums are louder than pro stadiums. I QT'd it (it was re-circulating a bit) with some version of "hey Chiefs fans Burrow doesn't think you're loud," which I felt was silly enough to be fun with just a twinge of truth.
Bengals fans got very, very angry with me for what they felt was me misquoting him. Though the quote was in the QT, so...
Thanks for the clarification. Why are so many sports fans so prickly? No “fun” deed goes unpunished.
I had the same question. Please bookmark for offseason. Nothing like a lull in the calendar than be reminded of this game ;)
I also had the same question. Is the national narrative right? “Allen played at the same level as Mahomes?” My eye test from being at the game and my thought that the Bills defense are widely considered the best against the pass in the league makes me think it is not true.
I'm excited to find out!
Same here. While I'd not want to detract from all the awesome Chiefs content at this most exciting time of the year, I'd be interested to see how you chart Allen in comparison. My impression in just the live game action was that Allen played a great game but didn't have (or need to have) the same level of impossibly spectacular plays that Mahomes made. That's not at all to detract from an incredibly talented QB playing a great game, but the KC defense made it too easy on him at times IMO.
My first impression after the game was something like “Mahomes clearly did a bit more than Allen on the passing front, but Allen does have that running back aspect of his game where they can run draws to get multiple first downs per game, so maybe that evened it out.” Then I remembered that Mahomes was a beast on the ground this game as well with more yards than Allen along with first downs and a touchdown. Without even considering the talent differential in defenses faced Mahomes was slightly better. Add in the defense talent level and the performance by Mahomes was transcendent.
I'm curious what it looks like overall. It wouldn't surprise me if Allen created me plays/yards but also had a few more mistakes in there.
Great idea for offseason content!
I love this idea! Maybe a whole off season “grim reaper” series of vanquished foes (assuming we keep winning), since I’m sure Burrow will play well
I just rewatched (and in condensed- which really makes the dichotomy b/w the two teams stand out. And I say “teams” b/c KCs defense was actually crazy stout) and I think you’re going to be surprised… I remember the game as a “toe to toe” “blow for blow” but it really wasnt… And then I looked at the stats (3rd down conversion, 4th down att, punts, share of the yds/car/rec/TD, drive summary, etc) and its kind of miraculous that game wound up like it did in the end.
Chiefs played near perfect (minus some DB issues that I doubt occur with 🍯🦡). Bills definitely did not. And the Bills were 13 seconds from winning.
Want to echo this. Would love to see how the two compared in what by all accounts appears to have been one of the greatest QB duels of all time.
I agree but mostly because I saw something that indicated that Josh Allen had a higher PFF grade, I don't know what goes into their grades, but I've very curious how he would grade out with your system.
Seth, one thing that stuck out to me on that final play is how we rarely we see Mahomes do those kind of lob, back shoulder type throws to receivers. At least in my memory, it’s not something the Chiefs rely on and instead rely on scheming someone more traditionally open. I think there may have been a pass like that to Pringle in the Steelers game but it wasn’t in tight coverage like this one.
It’s something Burrow and Chase did to us a bunch, I wonder if the Chiefs will dial up more of those plays in the future? Seems like a powerful option when you have solid chemistry between QB and receiver (or in this case, TE).
Seth and company mentioned that on the Time's Yours podcast yesterday. I think it was Nate who said he heard from Andy Reid - that is indeed a new wrinkle that we saved for the playoffs, it would seem. Who knew Kelce could perform a 270 degree spin, and retain his balance and composure to haul in a TD catch like that? Not the Bills, clearly! LOL
Kelce is excellent at those types of plays, but the remaining Chiefs receivers aren't a great fit for them (despite Hill's ball skills he's a body catcher, and the rest are inconsistent). I think you'll see more of them the more receivers show they can do that. The Pringle TD early was one like that in a way (not back shoulder, but throw up for him to grab it).
I don't watch any NFL games besides the Chiefs so I didn't fully appreciate how special Mahomes (and Allen) are. For reasons, I watched the Vikings-Bears 'highlights' from week 18. Dalton and Cousins - woof! It was shocking to see 4th down plays that don't convert (Blake Bell and the coaches are so glad we won). Even the highlight throws were bad.
As you show - Sunday night's game was extra special. Seemed a lot like the Rams and the AFC champ games from '18 except this time the Chiefs won!!
That's one thing interesting about Mahomes. If he stays in KC another 15 years then we'll get so spoiled with greatness that it'll be really tough to adjust to whoever follows him. It's already difficult to watch utterly feeble QBs like, say Carson Wentz, after you're used to watching Mahomes.
Or you can be like Green Bay, and go from Favre to Rodgers. It's not likely, but it's happened before.
Yeah, Manning to Luck is another example. Even Bledsoe to Brady. I just personally think that Mahomes will be the GOAT (even if he falls well short of Brady's number of rings) and it will be hard to watch his successor because of that.
It's definitely weird watching non-elite QB's and offenses. Feels like a bizarre form of torture.
The "throw to the window" snapshot was great. How often does Mahomes do this or attempt this in a game? How often do other QBs do this? How common is this type of throw? Thx
Follow-up: On an historical basis, when did this type of throw originate? Was Lenny doing this in his prime? Was this part of the west coast schemes from Walsh? Was Montana or Elway or Manning doing this? I realize that this is beyond what you do as you specialize in the Chiefs, but I find this fascinating since you pointed it out. Maybe someone else will know.
I feel like the first time I noticed QB's doing this intentionally and well regularly was Kurt Warner and Steve Young. I don't think either of those guys get recognized for how incredibly accurate they were. I'm sure people were doing it before then but those two were the first ones that stood out dramatically to me
Throwing guys open is something Mahomes does tremendously well and consistently. It varies by QB, but only the best generally do it consistently and this sort of throw (placing it on a rope while throwing them open) is rare.
Thank you for another great write up. I especially appreciated how you showed that this happened against a defense that was playing well, and executing their plan. So much of what I've heard about this game is how bad the defenses played. The chiefs D could have played better, but they were missing a couple of important pieces. Anyway, glad to see credit given where it is due. Both QB's were historically amazing, and Mahomes in particular did this against top level competition.
I'm very glad you enjoyed it!
Mahomes was freaking incredible. It's hard to overstate how much he willed this team to victory.
It was absurd to watch, then re-watch!
Is it just me, or does Pat throw a hook in the sidearm throw in your second clip? It's like a golfer hooking a ball left to go around a tree.
It may be optical illusion caused by camera & player motion, but I swear that thing is hooking left.
I... THINK it's an illusion?? But man...
I get so wrapped up in emotion during the game. These articles help me afterward to be more discerning. I appreciate you, Seth
Thanks Susan, that's the goal! I usually miss pretty much everything in the emotion of the moment as well.
If you add the level of competition and the stakes, I think this is the best game he has ever played. That is saying A LOT! If Tom Brady was our quarterback, the Bills would be in the AFCCG.
If anyone else had been the QB I think KC loses there.
I would be interested in your thoughts on what KC needs to do this time to win against the Bengals. Keep me busy while I wait for Sunday afternoon 😁
IMO they need to not have trash-tier refs, respect Chase downfield and ensure he's doubled when needed, stay aggressive on offense throughout and don't treat a 2 score lead as if it's safe.
No trash tier refs👏👏
I went back and read the article(s) after the last game which might give some insight. Seth titled them Self Inflected, Part 2 and Self Inflected Part 3...Besides a different set of referees, Spags needs to get over his stubborn self, adjust for Jamarr Chase and Chiefs need to quit shooting themselves in the foot. Because I Do NOT want to be reading a Self Inflicted, Part 4 newsletter come Monday!!💛❤
Great column to celebrate an amazing performance for the ages. Hate to inject this into the discussion, but what would this column say if we had come up short in the final '13'? Maybe the kick lands at the 10 forcing a reception - and pins us with 7 sec instead of 13 - then we focus on how many Bills were open up the middle etc- With a win there is little to no media focus on defense - and to your point, we know we can be burned by Burrows if we're not fully on our game. Hoping to see Mathieu and Fenton back!
The charting would still be the same on my end! That's one advantage to doing it this way, it doesn't matter about the W or the L. It's all about how the guy plays.
Roger that … but more thinking how we would size up the D performance
Gotcha. Generally speaking following a win I'll talk about the why of that, and with a loss the why of that. So odds are we'd be talking about miscommunication on th eback end.
This all right here.
Planning on publishing that tomorrow or Friday!
I knew he had multiple reads but 16 seems crazy. Zero missed shots. Only 1 happy feet!! Your analysis is always eye opening and backs the Perfect Game narrative. I will never take PM2 for granted. And watching him find Josh Allen after the game reminds me that not everything he does that's special can be charted.
Just as Brady sought out Patrick after their AFC Championship.
Thanks Krystal! And that was a cool moment for sure.
The sheer little kid "that's not fair" frustration is so obvious on the 3rd down overtime conversion to Kelce. He guesses right goes full speed to the roll out, and Pat throws around him anyway. He just throws his arms down and jumps up and down. The next step for a kid would have been t flop on the ground and freak out! :) It really wasn't fair and thank God 15's on our team!
I'd be ticked.
I continue to wonder if that early-season slump was essential to what's happening now. We all know the narrative was over-blown, but I think it's fair to say if a team had to pick between out-of-structure Mahomes and in-structure Mahomes, it was an easy choice: while in-structure Mahomes has been very good, out-of-structure Mahomes has been generational. That he adjusted so drastically (and so quickly!) and is now performing at an elite level both inside and outside of structure? Just, sheesh, man.
I think NFL defenses did a nice job adjusting and other than bad turnover luck the slump wasn't nearly as long as the national narrative (just my opinion, of course! He was bound to have a stretch of bad luck and came out of it as good or better than ever, which is promising.
Fantastic article Seth!
With the quick pocket decisions, he's Tom Brady 2.0 with the added ability to accurately throw on the run.
Go Chiefs!