Great read and good perspective! I had a conversation with my 23 yr old son after the game (he’s away in the Army) and I told him they just are who they are this year. Turnovers and penalties. While he has been a Chiefs fan since birth (he didn’t have a choice) he hasn’t had the years of pain I’ve experienced. As we wrapped up the hour long conversation we both felt a little better knowing we’ve seen two Super Bowl wins in the last four years and still have the best QB on the planet! Who knows what will happen the remainder of this year, but accepting who they are will make the rest of the season a more enjoyable experience. Appreciate your work!
As bad as this team has seemed at times this season, there isn't a single team in the league that I would feel like we just flat out don't have a shot at beating them, and I'm still grateful for that. Ask the fans of the other AFC West teams if they can say the same. I can easily see this team getting hot at the right moment and going on another championship run or I could see them losing in the first round
This is great Seth. It does take a lot of needless pressure off of a fan by not pretending our team is what it's not. We're spoiled. Instead of assuming we'll be great like I did in Mahomes 2020, I can approach this like Smith 2017 (if we make the playoffs), only with a great QB. What an uncertain year.
I would like to talk about mahomes. I love him, I've been a Chiefs fan since 1975-1976. He needs a coach to work on fundamentals.?Always throwing a 10 yard out at receivers feet. Overthrowing, underthrowing in every game. The off schedule throws are great. I'm talking about normal throws for normal tree routes. I wonder if Andy is coaching his play making abilities out of him. He is missing to many plays, I feel. Make it make sense to me.
I wouldn't have expected that. It drives me crazy to see Patrick hit 40-50 yard throws on a dime and then throw a 10 yard out and it's literally at the feet of the back/receiver and they can't advance the ball. I'm not picking, just.., if we were winning I wouldn't say anything. Your writing yesterday hit home with me. You could do good as a therapist...lol. Really though. Thanks Seth.
Several of those throws are on purpose because the play is dead, but I do agree he can miss those seemingly easy swing passes or check downs at times and its frustrating.
None of the throws I'm referring to were dead. Every single one of them were either caught off the ground or bounced off the ground, with an open receiver.
I don't even want to get started on #74 Taylor. If I could fly a drone into the huddle, I would pick him up and fly him back to Jacksonville. This is humor, but all fans know what I mean.
I went to the game yesterday expecting a loss. When it was 14-0, I accepted who we are. As the game wore on, I was happy with the fight on both sides of the ball (the defense was great). After the Bills gave us almost two minutes to work with at the end of the game, I still had my doubts. Mahomes to Rice (awesome). Mahomes to Kelce, Kelce to Toney! Wait, I saw the flag and didn't allow myself to full celebration mode, but could only think it was encroachment on the defense. For the first time in my life, I saw offsides on the offense (and am still angry, yes, about the call being made). However, anger or not, this play is the epitome of this team this year. Thank you for the reference to the '13-'16 offenses, that will help temper my expectations and hold me in the acceptance stage. Very good work, again!
I get that my comment doesn’t line up with the point of the story but I still have to say it. It feels more and more like the issue has been coaching. Geoff Schwartz made a great point on his podcast. He said that when it’s someone different every week as opposed to just the same or two guys, it means the offense stinks. He didn’t come out and say that it’s coaching but I feel like it’s the coaching. It’s easy to say the WR room just sucks but most of their issues have more to do with a lack of discipline than a lack of talent. Drops, fumbles, lining up incorrectly, running the wrong routes, missing assignments, really dumb penalties. These are things that could have, and should have, been coached out of them by now. And they haven’t. I’m sure it’s much more nuanced than that but it’s so wild to see what new and inventive ways they can sabotage themselves
My thought on this is that the coaching staff has been picked through a good amount over the last half-dozen years, and we may see some of the results. Andy does his thing and trusts others to do theirs, and if there are guys in the building over their head, etc, that could be a problem.
That said, things like drops are generally a talent issue, not a coaching issue. It's not like they're not coached on these fundamentals and install. Same with fumbles and penalties. Guys are taught the right way to play. I think the WR room is bereft of talent and we're seeing the results.
THAT said, I do think a tighter leash is needed on assistant coaches.
I think in retrospect pairing a first time WR coach with a group of mostly young receivers that doesn’t have a veteran leader was a mistake. But Andy tries to give his younger coaches breadth of experience to maximize their long term potential. It’s what Mike Holmgren did for him and is a big reason why his coaching tree is so prolific. It’s a process that has worked before but circumstances conspired against it this time.
As usual I agree with you on most everything. I’m of the opinion that Kelce isn’t very healthy and Mahomes may not be either. Having been a Chiefs fan for over 50 years the most concerning thing for me is the future. We have some tough contracts on the board and many to resign or get younger. The last few years have been great but would love to see this thing not fall apart. This offseason will have many changes I think
I agree with Soren: Andy needs to make an example of Toney by cutting him immediately. Then he needs to go into the WR room and say, "Sloppy isn't what we do here. Sloppy isn't what we are here. Every one of you had better tighten up his game or you could easily be next. Soon."
That’s fine to say, but Toney might be the second best WR that we have. It’s definitely not MVS. And it’s not Skyy Moore. Justin Watson? Richie James? I’d probably rather have Toney than any of those guys. But he needs to be a #3 or #4 rather than a top 2 WR on the team.
Andy needs to do something extreme if he is to have any chance of getting these WR's to be more focused. Cutting Toney would fit that bill nicely. His absence from the team would be no big loss.
Unlike Rashee Rice (who was blocking downfield as he should have been) Toney was absolutely lollygagging bigtime on that play. Otherwise he never would have been so easy for Kelce to find with that lateral. Sloppy. We don't need that kind of crap on this team.
As frustrating as that moment was - we lost that game for 60 min worth of penalties, drops and mis-cues - hard to single out KT IMO when it applies to the entire O! The issue is ‘sloppy IS what we’ve been doing’ all year - (sorry - had to get that out!)
Seth, you are almost exactly where I am at this point. I hope they can make the playoffs and make some noise. Win the SB; wonderful but not expecting it. But for me, I am mostly asking Santa for another West Division title and I will be…satisfied? Less sad? Whatever.
But living in front range Colorado, winning the West and not losing to the Donkeys in the playoffs will get me at least in a good place to begin the off season. Yeah…that is my “Acceptance”.
My biggest fear going into the year was losing in the playoffs to the Bengals. That has now been replaced by the Donkeys winning the west. The boogeyman from the past has been reanimated. Oh the humanity!
I've taken the same path to a similar conclusion. We are the reigning SUPER BOWL CHAMPION. And we get the "NO ONE BELIEVES IN US" chip on our shoulders. It seems like these two things should not go together. But here we are. Us against the world (including the refs), having been written off for dead, with 4 games left in the season to pull together and prove something to each other, and win out. Then, is there any team in the AFC playoffs that scares you? Me neither!
I won't be surprised if this team loses in the first playoff game. And I won't be surprised if this team gets healthy and makes it to the Super Bowl. And if we get there, we are 2-1 against unstoppable NFC juggernauts. If we get healthy, are you betting against this team - who has only lost games in which we beat outselves? I'm not! LFG!
I wish I could share your unbrided optimism. Unfortunately this team's play has made that an utter impossibility. You're right about one thing: losing in the first round of the playoffs is definitely not out of the question.
Hey, BPD! Glad to see you! Maybe I was missing you in the comment section, but I hadn't seen you around and was worried you'd taken a turn for the worse after your stroke. how's your health? Hope you're well, besides this team giving us all endless heartburn haha
Thanks for being interested! I had a scare a few weeks ago but right now I'm functioning as well as I have at any time since my stroke. I'm one of the "lucky" ones among stroke victims. I can still think and talk and walk (badly!) and more or less take care of myself.
Sadly, BPD, not even making the playoffs is not out of the question. The fact that this is hardly even mentioned in the local media gives proof to the prevalence of the denial step of Seth’s process. We have indeed become incredibly spoiled to the point of entitled.
I mean...it's not *impossible*. But I'd take the odds of us winning all 4 over the odds of us going 1-3. I put the odds on 4-0 at around 35% (90% chance of beating the Patriots, 80% chance of beating the Chargers and Raiders, 60% chance of beating the Bengals = 0.9*0.8*0.8*0.6 = 34.56%).
If we win the last 4, I estimate our chances of winning the bye at around 60%, because what we need is to go 4-0, while the Ravens go 2-2 or worse, and the Dolphins go 3-1 or worse. And the Dolphins and Ravens play each other.
But don't take my word for it, let's do some math. Say the Dolphins have a 70% chance of beating the Jets, a 40% chance of beating the Cowboys, a 50% chance of beating the Ravens, and a 60% chance of beating the Bills. That's a 91.6% chance of losing at least one.
Meanwhile, say the Ravens have a 60% chance to beat the Jags, 40% chance to beat the 49ers, 50% chance to beat the Dolphins, and 70% chance to beat the Steelers. Their probability of losing at least 2 games is 61.4%.
0.916*0.614 = 0.562 or 56.2%. But the odds are better than that, because the head-to-head game means that the Dolphins or Ravens are guaranteed to have at least one loss. I'm not quite good enough at statistics to calculate that part, but I know it improves the probability significantly...
Based on your math, the odds of us getting the bye are about 15-20%. Its a little bit possible! Anyway, gives us something to dream about until the next loss.
Yep, my estimate is about 20%. It's definitely not out of reach. And if we take care of business down the homestretch and win the last 4, it's still more likely than not.
Totally agree. This team could get hot. Any team can go several games without crucial penalties and turnovers. And of course a first round loss is not out of the question.
Sorry Seth. I appreciate your view, but I am firmly in the anger phase and doubt I will move soon. If it was just a case of being outplayed or out talented, I might be able to move on. That just isn't the case. These very simple and fundamental errors are infuriating. I might expect some of these mistakes by high school teams, but I sure don't expect them out of professionals. My gosh, how hard is it to line up on sides?!?! When you see the same mistakes, and drops, happening over and over again, well it battles me. The drop rate is insanely high. The stupid penalties are insanely high. It is depressing to see what could be, but only to see what is.
Thanks for letting me vent. It helps but doesn't change where I am.
Meh. They're still mostly healthy and leading the division. I suppose it's frustrating not to see their "A" game, week in and week out. But you and I both see the up-side, and that's a lot more encouraging than seeing us steal games with a small number of big plays, but get outplayed for 3 quarters.
Yeah, Jawaan Taylor's gotten a lot of penalties. But this is the most exciting O-Line to watch in years. The "loss" of Donovan Smith has pushed rookie Wanya Morris onto the field, and that kid can motor. They haven't had a LT who could reach block on zone runs since Eric Fisher, and he never had the C/OG play to really capitalize.
They're getting closer to the kind of O-Line CEH was built for. So much fun to watch. I'm not angry. I wish they'd gel, and we'd get to see them play a complete game in all 3 phases. But I love the "work in progress" throughout the season, especially on a team with as good of fundamentals and as many new parts.
I saw a clip from Orlovsky were he reviewed all of Toneys snaps against the Bills. He was lined up off sides each time. Wish they would have called it earlier.
Wish even more that Andy and Embree had seen it during practice and corrected it. I genuinely feel we need a strong ex-WR to replace Embree and coach the many failings we see out of the players.
I like this take.
Took me long enough to get there...
Great read and good perspective! I had a conversation with my 23 yr old son after the game (he’s away in the Army) and I told him they just are who they are this year. Turnovers and penalties. While he has been a Chiefs fan since birth (he didn’t have a choice) he hasn’t had the years of pain I’ve experienced. As we wrapped up the hour long conversation we both felt a little better knowing we’ve seen two Super Bowl wins in the last four years and still have the best QB on the planet! Who knows what will happen the remainder of this year, but accepting who they are will make the rest of the season a more enjoyable experience. Appreciate your work!
As bad as this team has seemed at times this season, there isn't a single team in the league that I would feel like we just flat out don't have a shot at beating them, and I'm still grateful for that. Ask the fans of the other AFC West teams if they can say the same. I can easily see this team getting hot at the right moment and going on another championship run or I could see them losing in the first round
Sometimes love hurts....
This is great Seth. It does take a lot of needless pressure off of a fan by not pretending our team is what it's not. We're spoiled. Instead of assuming we'll be great like I did in Mahomes 2020, I can approach this like Smith 2017 (if we make the playoffs), only with a great QB. What an uncertain year.
I would like to talk about mahomes. I love him, I've been a Chiefs fan since 1975-1976. He needs a coach to work on fundamentals.?Always throwing a 10 yard out at receivers feet. Overthrowing, underthrowing in every game. The off schedule throws are great. I'm talking about normal throws for normal tree routes. I wonder if Andy is coaching his play making abilities out of him. He is missing to many plays, I feel. Make it make sense to me.
His accuracy percentage is one of the best in the league FWIW.
I wouldn't have expected that. It drives me crazy to see Patrick hit 40-50 yard throws on a dime and then throw a 10 yard out and it's literally at the feet of the back/receiver and they can't advance the ball. I'm not picking, just.., if we were winning I wouldn't say anything. Your writing yesterday hit home with me. You could do good as a therapist...lol. Really though. Thanks Seth.
hahaha appreciate you! And I definitely understand how maddening those throws are (and I agree they're related to footwork for what that's worth!).
Several of those throws are on purpose because the play is dead, but I do agree he can miss those seemingly easy swing passes or check downs at times and its frustrating.
None of the throws I'm referring to were dead. Every single one of them were either caught off the ground or bounced off the ground, with an open receiver.
I don't even want to get started on #74 Taylor. If I could fly a drone into the huddle, I would pick him up and fly him back to Jacksonville. This is humor, but all fans know what I mean.
He’s only on the hook for $60 million over the next 3 years
🤮🤮🤮🤮🤮😤😤😤😤😤💩💩💩💩💩.
🙄
And oh yeah Seth, I do love how you have watched me go thru all 5 phases and made it a great story. Lol
I went to the game yesterday expecting a loss. When it was 14-0, I accepted who we are. As the game wore on, I was happy with the fight on both sides of the ball (the defense was great). After the Bills gave us almost two minutes to work with at the end of the game, I still had my doubts. Mahomes to Rice (awesome). Mahomes to Kelce, Kelce to Toney! Wait, I saw the flag and didn't allow myself to full celebration mode, but could only think it was encroachment on the defense. For the first time in my life, I saw offsides on the offense (and am still angry, yes, about the call being made). However, anger or not, this play is the epitome of this team this year. Thank you for the reference to the '13-'16 offenses, that will help temper my expectations and hold me in the acceptance stage. Very good work, again!
I heard the ref say encroachment and started to celebrate. That is ALWAYS against the defense. Right?
Man, that's a lot of what I experienced at that game as well!
I get that my comment doesn’t line up with the point of the story but I still have to say it. It feels more and more like the issue has been coaching. Geoff Schwartz made a great point on his podcast. He said that when it’s someone different every week as opposed to just the same or two guys, it means the offense stinks. He didn’t come out and say that it’s coaching but I feel like it’s the coaching. It’s easy to say the WR room just sucks but most of their issues have more to do with a lack of discipline than a lack of talent. Drops, fumbles, lining up incorrectly, running the wrong routes, missing assignments, really dumb penalties. These are things that could have, and should have, been coached out of them by now. And they haven’t. I’m sure it’s much more nuanced than that but it’s so wild to see what new and inventive ways they can sabotage themselves
Agree totally on the coaching. Week after week guys don’t do the basics - that’s on coaching
My thought on this is that the coaching staff has been picked through a good amount over the last half-dozen years, and we may see some of the results. Andy does his thing and trusts others to do theirs, and if there are guys in the building over their head, etc, that could be a problem.
That said, things like drops are generally a talent issue, not a coaching issue. It's not like they're not coached on these fundamentals and install. Same with fumbles and penalties. Guys are taught the right way to play. I think the WR room is bereft of talent and we're seeing the results.
THAT said, I do think a tighter leash is needed on assistant coaches.
This season is Brett Veach's first (and so far only) major fail when it comes to roster construction.
I think in retrospect pairing a first time WR coach with a group of mostly young receivers that doesn’t have a veteran leader was a mistake. But Andy tries to give his younger coaches breadth of experience to maximize their long term potential. It’s what Mike Holmgren did for him and is a big reason why his coaching tree is so prolific. It’s a process that has worked before but circumstances conspired against it this time.
As usual I agree with you on most everything. I’m of the opinion that Kelce isn’t very healthy and Mahomes may not be either. Having been a Chiefs fan for over 50 years the most concerning thing for me is the future. We have some tough contracts on the board and many to resign or get younger. The last few years have been great but would love to see this thing not fall apart. This offseason will have many changes I think
First Dee Ford. Now Toney. Who will be the next Chief to line up so carelessly that he costs his team a crucial game?
I agree with Soren: Andy needs to make an example of Toney by cutting him immediately. Then he needs to go into the WR room and say, "Sloppy isn't what we do here. Sloppy isn't what we are here. Every one of you had better tighten up his game or you could easily be next. Soon."
That’s fine to say, but Toney might be the second best WR that we have. It’s definitely not MVS. And it’s not Skyy Moore. Justin Watson? Richie James? I’d probably rather have Toney than any of those guys. But he needs to be a #3 or #4 rather than a top 2 WR on the team.
Andy needs to do something extreme if he is to have any chance of getting these WR's to be more focused. Cutting Toney would fit that bill nicely. His absence from the team would be no big loss.
Unlike Rashee Rice (who was blocking downfield as he should have been) Toney was absolutely lollygagging bigtime on that play. Otherwise he never would have been so easy for Kelce to find with that lateral. Sloppy. We don't need that kind of crap on this team.
As frustrating as that moment was - we lost that game for 60 min worth of penalties, drops and mis-cues - hard to single out KT IMO when it applies to the entire O! The issue is ‘sloppy IS what we’ve been doing’ all year - (sorry - had to get that out!)
I still hold out hope for Toney. Optimistic fool, maybe...
I’m there with you. He had a great SB.
Can't agree with that entirely. He had ONE great play in SB. That doesn't mean he had a "great game."
I understand the sentiment, I really do. But the cupboard is BARE, and that messes with the ability to do that.
And IDK if with that WR room making them think they could be cut would help. Often we treat this like it's high school ball, and it's just not.
So for me I don't know if the (potential) juice is worth the (certain) squeeze.
Seth, you are almost exactly where I am at this point. I hope they can make the playoffs and make some noise. Win the SB; wonderful but not expecting it. But for me, I am mostly asking Santa for another West Division title and I will be…satisfied? Less sad? Whatever.
But living in front range Colorado, winning the West and not losing to the Donkeys in the playoffs will get me at least in a good place to begin the off season. Yeah…that is my “Acceptance”.
My concern, Obscure, is that we may find ourselves behind the Donks! That would be hell …
My biggest fear going into the year was losing in the playoffs to the Bengals. That has now been replaced by the Donkeys winning the west. The boogeyman from the past has been reanimated. Oh the humanity!
I've taken the same path to a similar conclusion. We are the reigning SUPER BOWL CHAMPION. And we get the "NO ONE BELIEVES IN US" chip on our shoulders. It seems like these two things should not go together. But here we are. Us against the world (including the refs), having been written off for dead, with 4 games left in the season to pull together and prove something to each other, and win out. Then, is there any team in the AFC playoffs that scares you? Me neither!
I won't be surprised if this team loses in the first playoff game. And I won't be surprised if this team gets healthy and makes it to the Super Bowl. And if we get there, we are 2-1 against unstoppable NFC juggernauts. If we get healthy, are you betting against this team - who has only lost games in which we beat outselves? I'm not! LFG!
I wish I could share your unbrided optimism. Unfortunately this team's play has made that an utter impossibility. You're right about one thing: losing in the first round of the playoffs is definitely not out of the question.
Hey, BPD! Glad to see you! Maybe I was missing you in the comment section, but I hadn't seen you around and was worried you'd taken a turn for the worse after your stroke. how's your health? Hope you're well, besides this team giving us all endless heartburn haha
Yeah, BPD, how are you? I just mentioned to my wife I noticed you were away for several games.
Thanks for being interested! I had a scare a few weeks ago but right now I'm functioning as well as I have at any time since my stroke. I'm one of the "lucky" ones among stroke victims. I can still think and talk and walk (badly!) and more or less take care of myself.
You're a part of our community, and we care about you, the person, even if we disagree with your opinions sometimes haha
Glad to hear that you have dodged the worst possibilities post-stroke. Keep recovering, bro!
Sadly, BPD, not even making the playoffs is not out of the question. The fact that this is hardly even mentioned in the local media gives proof to the prevalence of the denial step of Seth’s process. We have indeed become incredibly spoiled to the point of entitled.
I mean...it's not *impossible*. But I'd take the odds of us winning all 4 over the odds of us going 1-3. I put the odds on 4-0 at around 35% (90% chance of beating the Patriots, 80% chance of beating the Chargers and Raiders, 60% chance of beating the Bengals = 0.9*0.8*0.8*0.6 = 34.56%).
If we win the last 4, I estimate our chances of winning the bye at around 60%, because what we need is to go 4-0, while the Ravens go 2-2 or worse, and the Dolphins go 3-1 or worse. And the Dolphins and Ravens play each other.
But don't take my word for it, let's do some math. Say the Dolphins have a 70% chance of beating the Jets, a 40% chance of beating the Cowboys, a 50% chance of beating the Ravens, and a 60% chance of beating the Bills. That's a 91.6% chance of losing at least one.
Meanwhile, say the Ravens have a 60% chance to beat the Jags, 40% chance to beat the 49ers, 50% chance to beat the Dolphins, and 70% chance to beat the Steelers. Their probability of losing at least 2 games is 61.4%.
0.916*0.614 = 0.562 or 56.2%. But the odds are better than that, because the head-to-head game means that the Dolphins or Ravens are guaranteed to have at least one loss. I'm not quite good enough at statistics to calculate that part, but I know it improves the probability significantly...
Based on your math, the odds of us getting the bye are about 15-20%. Its a little bit possible! Anyway, gives us something to dream about until the next loss.
Yep, my estimate is about 20%. It's definitely not out of reach. And if we take care of business down the homestretch and win the last 4, it's still more likely than not.
FWIW ESPN analytics gives the Chiefs a 15% chance of getting the #1 seed.
Totally agree. This team could get hot. Any team can go several games without crucial penalties and turnovers. And of course a first round loss is not out of the question.
Sorry Seth. I appreciate your view, but I am firmly in the anger phase and doubt I will move soon. If it was just a case of being outplayed or out talented, I might be able to move on. That just isn't the case. These very simple and fundamental errors are infuriating. I might expect some of these mistakes by high school teams, but I sure don't expect them out of professionals. My gosh, how hard is it to line up on sides?!?! When you see the same mistakes, and drops, happening over and over again, well it battles me. The drop rate is insanely high. The stupid penalties are insanely high. It is depressing to see what could be, but only to see what is.
Thanks for letting me vent. It helps but doesn't change where I am.
Meh. They're still mostly healthy and leading the division. I suppose it's frustrating not to see their "A" game, week in and week out. But you and I both see the up-side, and that's a lot more encouraging than seeing us steal games with a small number of big plays, but get outplayed for 3 quarters.
Yeah, Jawaan Taylor's gotten a lot of penalties. But this is the most exciting O-Line to watch in years. The "loss" of Donovan Smith has pushed rookie Wanya Morris onto the field, and that kid can motor. They haven't had a LT who could reach block on zone runs since Eric Fisher, and he never had the C/OG play to really capitalize.
They're getting closer to the kind of O-Line CEH was built for. So much fun to watch. I'm not angry. I wish they'd gel, and we'd get to see them play a complete game in all 3 phases. But I love the "work in progress" throughout the season, especially on a team with as good of fundamentals and as many new parts.
I saw a clip from Orlovsky were he reviewed all of Toneys snaps against the Bills. He was lined up off sides each time. Wish they would have called it earlier.
Wish even more that Andy and Embree had seen it during practice and corrected it. I genuinely feel we need a strong ex-WR to replace Embree and coach the many failings we see out of the players.
I don't know enough about Embree to have an opinion but damn I wish they would have caught it in practice.