Based on what we've heard so far, I think the most likely direction I'm leaning is Kingsley. IF that's correct, I think he's still the starter come playoff time. They definitely want him to win the spot and he's got tremendous talent (of course, so does Morries, but Kingsley's film in college is more consistent than Morris's was).
I think so, yes. They can't (or shouldn't) pay him, Creed, and Thuney. And as much as I love Trey, assuming Thuney heals up appropriately Smith is the least of those three players (no knock on him, the other two are all pro level and he's pro bowl level).
Additionally, centers are markedly cheaper than guards on the market. So this is a situation you can get the better player at a cheaper contract who plays just as valuable a position (arguably more, but I digress). But they definitely know they can't keep them all, hence the interior OL-heavy draft!
I think it could end up being the most important rule change since they altered defensive contact down the field. It's that big a deal. Now, that's muted somewhat because kickoffs consist of only approximately a dozen plays a game.
But given how VAST the changes are that's still huge. A play that was basically a nothingburger is now one in which there should be "real" football every time until some team finds a loophole to mitigate risk. Further, the setup of it encourages ACTUAL scheme, ACTUAL tricks, and ACTUAL advantage with blockers and skill position guys. It's just a huge, huge, huge deal in that it literally adds an extra dozen (ish) legitimate plays per game.
I think with the Chiefs, they have some really intriguing guys who can create yardage on those kickoffs, but like every team it'll be a moving target. In THEORY, this is why you have Dave Toub (and Andy Reid, and Andy Heck) and a theoretical advantage over other teams in terms of figuring out how to scheme a brand-new sort of "offense" (for lack of a better term).
My theory is that one or two teams will have it figured out a little better than the rest of the league early and will end up with a HUGE advantage over the first few weeks, but then other teams will copy what those teams are doing and it'll even out a bit more and come down to execution, superior play callers, and talent (just like the way teams currently get an advantage on offense).
I have no question but I would like to win prizes please. How about this: As a fellow father of 5, excluding the first one, which number child provided the toughest life adjustment?
I agree with Curtis, going from 2 to 3 was shockingly hard. 1 to 2 is really tough as well, but with 3 you start to constantly feel behind on everything and it's quite hectic.
After 3? Heh, no sweat, it's all just a little more of the same!
You both echo my thoughts exactly. I find that’s almost a universal answer among folks with a lot of kids. My 3rd child is the easiest going kid on the planet. He always has been. My wife and I have reflected that raising him might be somewhat like what it was like for Mary and Joseph raising Jesus…but it was still hard as crap once he came along.
I think he has significantly more chance of being a training camp darling then doing nothing than having an actual sizable impact on the field. He has such an uphill battle in terms of learning the game and understanding exactly where to be, and when to do things. The potential difference with him will be special teams. given the rule changes, like I talked about above, there's a significant chance that he could do something big(ish) on an entirely new subset of plays that are new for everyone and not just him. It's the best shot he has!
With Waddle and Jefferson getting massive contracts, and continuing inflation at that position, does that mean the Chiefs only shot at a prestige WR is through the draft for the rest of the Mahomes era?
Yes, the WR position has gotten bonkers that it will be wildly tough to land a legit number 1. I see a few avenues.
First and most obvious is the early draft. No explanation needed, that's the easiest route. Of course, when you pick 30+ every year that's still tough.
Next is blind luck. Some late round pick, a FA who didn't work out elsewhere, etc. It happens!
One underrated way IMO is via trade. When you trade for a veteran already under contract he can come cheaper, as the team you're trading with already dealt with his signing bonus (and the associated cap hit). A good example of this is Metcalf. If the Chiefs traded for him his cap hits the next 2 season would actually be below 20 mil a year, well under his market value. I could see them exploring that route (a vet whose bonuses have been paid out).
How much of year 2 is "make or break" for FAU as a 1st round selection? Any update on his workouts with Tamba? Will we know what we have with FAU by the end of this season?
It's a big deal in the sense that he needs to at least show he can get snaps and contribute. Doesn't need to be a DUDE, just being a "guy" would be a big step forward for him (and would be huge for KC given how thin they are at edge).
If he can't be that in year 2, that's not a great sign. Not a lot of players go from zip to legit contributor after multiple years in the league (it happens, but it's rare). He's a young dude, and while I haven't heard any updates I know he and Karlaftis are working hard with Tamba (who is a terrific model for a guy with FAU's skillset).
At corner i think it's josh Williams. He took a step forward last year and has high end athleticism that raises his ceiling. Nazeeh Johnson is a dark horse purely based on how glowing his coaches and teammates have been about him. And of course, we know they have an above average chance of hitting on the guys they took this year.
At safety, I think it's Conner's role through and through. Reid, Cook (who looks HUGE at practice) and Conner have the potential for a really solid safety group even if you don't factor in Hicks (who I see as more a box guy).
I think it's always dependent on the guy tbh, no matter what he's surrounded with. It certainly can't hurt in terms of tips on how to avoid press, etc, but I think his 3 years in Sarks offense will help just as much!
So in short, I don't think it moves the needle too much but it can a little!
My question is about the 2023 offense. I have rewatched most of the season since the draft, and I was surprised at how many good and decent plays were made by Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney before things went really south. I think the tackle play was a big culprit in the offensive decline between 2022 and 2023. There were several games (MIA, PHIL, GB, both Raiders games) where from rewatching the telecast it felt like Mahomes was moved off the spot so regularly and so quickly that the offense couldn't get deep and everything was squeezed. How much do you think was tackle play? How much receiver play?
Obviously, the drops were horrible, but so were the OL penalties.
Random aside - in rewatching the Lions game, Collingsworth didn't make as much of a deal about Taylor as I remembered - it was still a lot, but it was largely prefaced about Bosa's complaints from the Jags-Chargers wildcard game in 2022 playoffs.
It all works in concert, but worse than the drops (for me) were consistent issues with sight adjustments and route spacing. In addition, Moore in particular didn't look strong enough (his biggest issue as a rookie) to survive contact throughout his routes.
For me, when I've rewatched the protection looked more problematic midway through the season and beyond when teams started realizing they could play the Chiefs a lot more aggressively due to not having a legitimate deep offense. Way more aggressive rushes because they could afford to have a spy or other guys in the box, way more quick routes jumped (leaving mahomes with nowhere to go), things like that.
Smith wasn't that good and Taylor's issues are well documented, but I think it started with the WR room (and not just toney and Moore, to be fair to them!). The entire plan got the offense fell apart and they spent all season recalibrating
I think the hope is Wiley can be a good starting TE. But something to keep in mind is that no matter who it is, the role will change. Nobody can do what kelce does and the way he does it, so the role will have to be different!
There never will be another Kelce. Do you think KC finds someone closer to A tier at WR? Hard to run with average/above average WRs if you do not have an all-timer like Kelce?
Can you write off your trip now that you are answering comments? :)
Was Kelce’s up and down season last year more due to age or injury? How do you anticipate his remaining years playing out? How many more years does he have left in the tank and will he be a chief for life?
He'll be a Chief for life. I think injury was a huge thing last year. He didn't look like himself until the playoffs, really. He got hurt right before the season and then, when the WR room fell apart, had to play way too big a role.
I think he's done after these next 2 years, especially if his fame continues to provide non football options.
1. Worst case is Worthy struggles and Brown doesn't acclimate well to the offense, and in the meantime no one steps up at LT. As a result, offense stays the same as last year or even gets worse. Simultaneously, the losses of Sneed, Gay, and Edward's hurt without young guys stepping in and the defense takes a big step back.
2. I think there's a chance people are overestimating the demise of Buffalo. Their offense looked good down the stretch last year without relying on Diggs, and their young pieces there are intriguing. Baltimore has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, and despite losing Mac I think they'll still be very tough.
The team that spooks me the most is Houston, naturally. They added a lot of sensible talent, Stroud looks legit, and they appear well coached.
This is really saying "over/under 2 Super Bowl for the rest of Mahomes career", and you gotta take the over, right? I think the odds are better that he wins the next two in a row than that he has fewer than 2 for the rest of his career.
I decided to discipline my thinking on this by building a little PowerShell simulation to figure out how good/bad the Chiefs have to be to win 3 more Super Bowls, and it showed that if the Chiefs are, on average, a top 8 team over the next 12 seasons, you'd expect them to win 1.52 Super Bowls over the next 12 seasons. If you assume top 4 for the next 3 seasons, then top 12 for the next 9, you get 1.54 wins on average over the next 12 years. So even 2 more wins is a lot.
It would take a consistently elite team (not just a playoff team, but a true contender year in and year out) to make that possible. Mathematically, what we did over the last 6 seasons is the distribution of a team that has consistently been top 2. I think we're still top 2 this year (and we're not #2). Even if you assume we're a 60% favorite for the next two years, we only four-peat 35% of the time. So maybe I'm falling victim to recency bias, and missing the high probability that a top 2 team will regress to a top 8 team if/when Travis/CJ/Patrick gets injured sometime in the next 3 seasons.
You weirdo. Putting an exhibit sticker on the jar lol. I love it.
hahaha it was the most convenient sticker I had available!
Who do you think will be the starting left tackle for week 1? Do you think the starter in week 1 is likely to still be the starter come playoff time?
Based on what we've heard so far, I think the most likely direction I'm leaning is Kingsley. IF that's correct, I think he's still the starter come playoff time. They definitely want him to win the spot and he's got tremendous talent (of course, so does Morries, but Kingsley's film in college is more consistent than Morris's was).
Is this Trey Smith’s last season with the Chiefs?
I think so, yes. They can't (or shouldn't) pay him, Creed, and Thuney. And as much as I love Trey, assuming Thuney heals up appropriately Smith is the least of those three players (no knock on him, the other two are all pro level and he's pro bowl level).
Additionally, centers are markedly cheaper than guards on the market. So this is a situation you can get the better player at a cheaper contract who plays just as valuable a position (arguably more, but I digress). But they definitely know they can't keep them all, hence the interior OL-heavy draft!
You get to choose one:
tombstone pizzas free for the rest of your life and the chiefs miss the playoffs in 2024
or
a chiefs 3peat this season and no tombstone pizza for 15 years.
Which do you choose?
Good luck.
Haha fortunately, there's so much good pizza in the world and only one chance at a threepeat (for now). So that's an easy one for me to go threepeat!
I'd miss those Tombstones to be sure. But every time I walked by one I'd know that I did my part in NFL history :).
What do you think of the new kickoff rules and how does it impact the Chiefs?
I think it could end up being the most important rule change since they altered defensive contact down the field. It's that big a deal. Now, that's muted somewhat because kickoffs consist of only approximately a dozen plays a game.
But given how VAST the changes are that's still huge. A play that was basically a nothingburger is now one in which there should be "real" football every time until some team finds a loophole to mitigate risk. Further, the setup of it encourages ACTUAL scheme, ACTUAL tricks, and ACTUAL advantage with blockers and skill position guys. It's just a huge, huge, huge deal in that it literally adds an extra dozen (ish) legitimate plays per game.
I think with the Chiefs, they have some really intriguing guys who can create yardage on those kickoffs, but like every team it'll be a moving target. In THEORY, this is why you have Dave Toub (and Andy Reid, and Andy Heck) and a theoretical advantage over other teams in terms of figuring out how to scheme a brand-new sort of "offense" (for lack of a better term).
My theory is that one or two teams will have it figured out a little better than the rest of the league early and will end up with a HUGE advantage over the first few weeks, but then other teams will copy what those teams are doing and it'll even out a bit more and come down to execution, superior play callers, and talent (just like the way teams currently get an advantage on offense).
I have no question but I would like to win prizes please. How about this: As a fellow father of 5, excluding the first one, which number child provided the toughest life adjustment?
I don't have quite that many, but the third child meant we had to go from man-to-man defense to zone. Definitely the third for me.
I agree with Curtis, going from 2 to 3 was shockingly hard. 1 to 2 is really tough as well, but with 3 you start to constantly feel behind on everything and it's quite hectic.
After 3? Heh, no sweat, it's all just a little more of the same!
You both echo my thoughts exactly. I find that’s almost a universal answer among folks with a lot of kids. My 3rd child is the easiest going kid on the planet. He always has been. My wife and I have reflected that raising him might be somewhat like what it was like for Mary and Joseph raising Jesus…but it was still hard as crap once he came along.
Will Rees-Zammit be this year Justin Ross or will he actually make an impact?
I think he has significantly more chance of being a training camp darling then doing nothing than having an actual sizable impact on the field. He has such an uphill battle in terms of learning the game and understanding exactly where to be, and when to do things. The potential difference with him will be special teams. given the rule changes, like I talked about above, there's a significant chance that he could do something big(ish) on an entirely new subset of plays that are new for everyone and not just him. It's the best shot he has!
With Waddle and Jefferson getting massive contracts, and continuing inflation at that position, does that mean the Chiefs only shot at a prestige WR is through the draft for the rest of the Mahomes era?
Enjoy the vacay Seth! And congrats to Tucker!
I will pass along the congratulations!
Yes, the WR position has gotten bonkers that it will be wildly tough to land a legit number 1. I see a few avenues.
First and most obvious is the early draft. No explanation needed, that's the easiest route. Of course, when you pick 30+ every year that's still tough.
Next is blind luck. Some late round pick, a FA who didn't work out elsewhere, etc. It happens!
One underrated way IMO is via trade. When you trade for a veteran already under contract he can come cheaper, as the team you're trading with already dealt with his signing bonus (and the associated cap hit). A good example of this is Metcalf. If the Chiefs traded for him his cap hits the next 2 season would actually be below 20 mil a year, well under his market value. I could see them exploring that route (a vet whose bonuses have been paid out).
How much of year 2 is "make or break" for FAU as a 1st round selection? Any update on his workouts with Tamba? Will we know what we have with FAU by the end of this season?
It's a big deal in the sense that he needs to at least show he can get snaps and contribute. Doesn't need to be a DUDE, just being a "guy" would be a big step forward for him (and would be huge for KC given how thin they are at edge).
If he can't be that in year 2, that's not a great sign. Not a lot of players go from zip to legit contributor after multiple years in the league (it happens, but it's rare). He's a young dude, and while I haven't heard any updates I know he and Karlaftis are working hard with Tamba (who is a terrific model for a guy with FAU's skillset).
With Sneed & Mike Edwards both gone, who do you foresee taking the next step in their development at corner & 3rd safety?
At corner i think it's josh Williams. He took a step forward last year and has high end athleticism that raises his ceiling. Nazeeh Johnson is a dark horse purely based on how glowing his coaches and teammates have been about him. And of course, we know they have an above average chance of hitting on the guys they took this year.
At safety, I think it's Conner's role through and through. Reid, Cook (who looks HUGE at practice) and Conner have the potential for a really solid safety group even if you don't factor in Hicks (who I see as more a box guy).
Do you think Worthy will make a quicker transition to the NFL due to the veteran presence of Hollywood? Hollywood seems to have a similar skill set.
I think it's always dependent on the guy tbh, no matter what he's surrounded with. It certainly can't hurt in terms of tips on how to avoid press, etc, but I think his 3 years in Sarks offense will help just as much!
So in short, I don't think it moves the needle too much but it can a little!
Love this, Seth!
My question is about the 2023 offense. I have rewatched most of the season since the draft, and I was surprised at how many good and decent plays were made by Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney before things went really south. I think the tackle play was a big culprit in the offensive decline between 2022 and 2023. There were several games (MIA, PHIL, GB, both Raiders games) where from rewatching the telecast it felt like Mahomes was moved off the spot so regularly and so quickly that the offense couldn't get deep and everything was squeezed. How much do you think was tackle play? How much receiver play?
Obviously, the drops were horrible, but so were the OL penalties.
Random aside - in rewatching the Lions game, Collingsworth didn't make as much of a deal about Taylor as I remembered - it was still a lot, but it was largely prefaced about Bosa's complaints from the Jags-Chargers wildcard game in 2022 playoffs.
It all works in concert, but worse than the drops (for me) were consistent issues with sight adjustments and route spacing. In addition, Moore in particular didn't look strong enough (his biggest issue as a rookie) to survive contact throughout his routes.
For me, when I've rewatched the protection looked more problematic midway through the season and beyond when teams started realizing they could play the Chiefs a lot more aggressively due to not having a legitimate deep offense. Way more aggressive rushes because they could afford to have a spy or other guys in the box, way more quick routes jumped (leaving mahomes with nowhere to go), things like that.
Smith wasn't that good and Taylor's issues are well documented, but I think it started with the WR room (and not just toney and Moore, to be fair to them!). The entire plan got the offense fell apart and they spent all season recalibrating
What do you think happens after Kelce is retired? They have to lock up a quality receiver long-term at some point right?
I think the hope is Wiley can be a good starting TE. But something to keep in mind is that no matter who it is, the role will change. Nobody can do what kelce does and the way he does it, so the role will have to be different!
There never will be another Kelce. Do you think KC finds someone closer to A tier at WR? Hard to run with average/above average WRs if you do not have an all-timer like Kelce?
Can you write off your trip now that you are answering comments? :)
Was Kelce’s up and down season last year more due to age or injury? How do you anticipate his remaining years playing out? How many more years does he have left in the tank and will he be a chief for life?
He'll be a Chief for life. I think injury was a huge thing last year. He didn't look like himself until the playoffs, really. He got hurt right before the season and then, when the WR room fell apart, had to play way too big a role.
I think he's done after these next 2 years, especially if his fame continues to provide non football options.
I'm way too excited about a threepeat and need to temper expectations some, so...
1. Excluding injuries, what's the worst-case scenario for 2024?
2. With the Bills in cap hell and Baltimore's defense likely to regress, who's our biggest competition in the AFC this year?
Haha I get it!
1. Worst case is Worthy struggles and Brown doesn't acclimate well to the offense, and in the meantime no one steps up at LT. As a result, offense stays the same as last year or even gets worse. Simultaneously, the losses of Sneed, Gay, and Edward's hurt without young guys stepping in and the defense takes a big step back.
2. I think there's a chance people are overestimating the demise of Buffalo. Their offense looked good down the stretch last year without relying on Diggs, and their young pieces there are intriguing. Baltimore has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, and despite losing Mac I think they'll still be very tough.
The team that spooks me the most is Houston, naturally. They added a lot of sensible talent, Stroud looks legit, and they appear well coached.
Predict: Over or under 5 total Superbowls for Mahomes by the time his career is over
This is really saying "over/under 2 Super Bowl for the rest of Mahomes career", and you gotta take the over, right? I think the odds are better that he wins the next two in a row than that he has fewer than 2 for the rest of his career.
I decided to discipline my thinking on this by building a little PowerShell simulation to figure out how good/bad the Chiefs have to be to win 3 more Super Bowls, and it showed that if the Chiefs are, on average, a top 8 team over the next 12 seasons, you'd expect them to win 1.52 Super Bowls over the next 12 seasons. If you assume top 4 for the next 3 seasons, then top 12 for the next 9, you get 1.54 wins on average over the next 12 years. So even 2 more wins is a lot.
It would take a consistently elite team (not just a playoff team, but a true contender year in and year out) to make that possible. Mathematically, what we did over the last 6 seasons is the distribution of a team that has consistently been top 2. I think we're still top 2 this year (and we're not #2). Even if you assume we're a 60% favorite for the next two years, we only four-peat 35% of the time. So maybe I'm falling victim to recency bias, and missing the high probability that a top 2 team will regress to a top 8 team if/when Travis/CJ/Patrick gets injured sometime in the next 3 seasons.
Powershell? You nerd! And...impressive. But you forgot to factor in Playoff Patrick, Andy and Spags. The answer is still "over".
Haha it's not that impressive. I'm too lazy to use coding that isn't pre-built into my Windows PC sometimes haha
This is cool!
Over
I think it's gotta be over at this point. For it to be less he'd need to win at a much lesser rate than he has.
Only wild card is how long he plays.