I felt like maybe I was overly optimistic about Karlaftis (who I expect to replace what we got from Melvin Ingram), but then I saw this PFF projection:
"Getting after the quarterback in 2022, Karlaftis is projected to have 52.7 pressures (12.4% pressure percentage) and 8.9 sacks (2.1% sack percentage) on 425 pass-rushing snaps. That number would have been good for 22nd among edge defenders in 2021.
As a run defender, Karlaftis is projected to have 15 stops on 250 run-defense snaps. That number isn’t quite as good as his pass-rush numbers, as it would have ranked 32nd among edge defenders last season.
Of first-round edge rushers only the No. 2 overall pick, Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson, was projected to have more sacks in 2022 (9.4). Hutchinson was also the only player with a higher projected pressure and sack percentages (13.4% and 2.2%)."
That is easily better than what we could've projected to get out of Ingram, and helps explain why the Chiefs front office seems to be in no hurry to bring in another edge rusher to take snaps away from Karlaftis.
I don't think you can compare a single game outcome in which the offensive line was completely reshuffled and reconstituted for the biggest game of the season to a projection over a 17 Game season. Statistics are very bad at predicting individual events (too much variance and randomness), but very good at predicting larger sets of events like a season (where the variance and randomness has time to cancel each other out).
Watching the play you mentioned made me wish the Chiefs had had him for the Eagles game last year when literally no one on the team showed that much discipline, range, and tackling ability.
Yep. That’s the game. I’m hoping Veach doesn’t leave any Hitchens/Niemann/Sorensen equivalents on the roster, thereby forcing Spags to play the young guys or roll with 8 players on defense.
I have to admit, after the 2018 draft I was fearful of what Brett Veach was going to bring to the table as a GM. My fears really weren't assuaged until last year and now, with this class, I'm afraid I'm becoming a Veach fanboy. And nobody wants to see that.
hahaha I definitely am trying to keep my "we'll see" hat on with this draft class, because it's a very unusual thing for me to really like this many players' film.
It'll be interesting, though it's worth noting that while they brought in 3 CB's in the draft (and Lonnie Johnson) they lost 2 guys with significant snap counts, so the there are still spots for the taking!
It got me thinking, not only about Veach, but GMs in general. In most peoples opinion, Veachs' last two drafts have been outstanding - particularly in comparison to his first few drafts! Okay, I can see him getting lucky and having one outstanding draft, but two in a row? Maybe Veach, like some of our players, is just getting better, and growing into the GM job.
Which brings up a question: I know it's a little bit off what you normally do, but would you ever consider writing an article about what makes a good GM? I think it was the Athletic (or ESPN?) that did a recent article on ranking the GM's, but I don't believe I've ever seen an article on what qualities go into making a good GM in professional football. What do teams look for when they hire someone for that job? Obviously you have to have a nose for talent, but is that pretty much it? How important is the financial and contract stuff? I know Dorsey was a guy that could judge talent but despite that he was let go apparently because of his inability to handle cap issues. Anyway, given the outstanding analysis you give to player evaluations, it would be great to see something like that for GMs!
Veach hasn't had a lot of first-round draft choices to work with. IMO he has done more than just plug holes at a lower value positions. He was able to add high quality players at these positions. Yes I would prefer Higgins over CEH, but you can always find examples of a better player taken later by another team than the player you took. How about the reverse of that? I'm pretty sure other teams are kicking themselves for not picking several of last year's and this year's Chiefs players when they had the chance.
I think it's been recognized by most analysts over the last few years that the majority of players Veach drafted are considered higher draft choices than where Veach picked them, and therefore better value. To be able to do that consistently when you are always picking at the bottom end of the draft rounds is really a credit to Veach.
True, the jury is still out on whether he can build and sustain a complete roster, but the team over the last few years, at least on paper, has gotten better. I don't know how the Chiefs work the draft. Maybe Andy Reid and Spags have a lot more influence on who we pick, but at least from what they say, most of the credit (and I assume blame) for the draft belongs to Veach.
I’m shocked! Shocked, I tell you! To learn that Seth doesn’t have immediate access to All-22 film from Fayetteville State! Actually, one of the draftnicks on the Athletic Football Show said there is a whole underground economy in college coach’s film and that getting stuff from smaller schools can require certain ethical compromises that none of us would want an ordained minister and prosecutorial attorney to make.
Seventh round picks are all long shot gambles, but this kid looks like a reasonable bet. If he hits as well as Fenton did (I know, totally different players and skill sets. Just overall level of success) then he’s a huge win.
Something went haywire at substack - no one can tell me what it was - and I've been completely locked out of the site for a few days even though I showed up as a paid subscriber in their records. I finally convinced them to completely delete me as a user and let me start fresh with a different email address.
And voila I'm back! (I'm absolutely certain that all of you were deeply concerned about this.) Anyway it will be nice to start getting my daily dose of Seth and conversation again!
Just reread the article since it's been a few days... That first video clip of the WR falling ignominiously to the turf several yards down field was pretty entertaining! I'd forgotten about that one....
I felt like maybe I was overly optimistic about Karlaftis (who I expect to replace what we got from Melvin Ingram), but then I saw this PFF projection:
https://chiefswire.usatoday.com/2022/05/23/kansas-city-chiefs-george-karlaftis-pff-sack-pressure-run-stop-projections-2022/
"Getting after the quarterback in 2022, Karlaftis is projected to have 52.7 pressures (12.4% pressure percentage) and 8.9 sacks (2.1% sack percentage) on 425 pass-rushing snaps. That number would have been good for 22nd among edge defenders in 2021.
As a run defender, Karlaftis is projected to have 15 stops on 250 run-defense snaps. That number isn’t quite as good as his pass-rush numbers, as it would have ranked 32nd among edge defenders last season.
Of first-round edge rushers only the No. 2 overall pick, Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson, was projected to have more sacks in 2022 (9.4). Hutchinson was also the only player with a higher projected pressure and sack percentages (13.4% and 2.2%)."
That is easily better than what we could've projected to get out of Ingram, and helps explain why the Chiefs front office seems to be in no hurry to bring in another edge rusher to take snaps away from Karlaftis.
I don't think you can compare a single game outcome in which the offensive line was completely reshuffled and reconstituted for the biggest game of the season to a projection over a 17 Game season. Statistics are very bad at predicting individual events (too much variance and randomness), but very good at predicting larger sets of events like a season (where the variance and randomness has time to cancel each other out).
Watching the play you mentioned made me wish the Chiefs had had him for the Eagles game last year when literally no one on the team showed that much discipline, range, and tackling ability.
Yep. That’s the game. I’m hoping Veach doesn’t leave any Hitchens/Niemann/Sorensen equivalents on the roster, thereby forcing Spags to play the young guys or roll with 8 players on defense.
I have to admit, after the 2018 draft I was fearful of what Brett Veach was going to bring to the table as a GM. My fears really weren't assuaged until last year and now, with this class, I'm afraid I'm becoming a Veach fanboy. And nobody wants to see that.
I can neither confirm nor deny the veracity of this report.
Both you guys are disgusting!
We're just givers that way, right BPD?
hahaha I definitely am trying to keep my "we'll see" hat on with this draft class, because it's a very unusual thing for me to really like this many players' film.
That's the beautiful thing about film, there are no credits/debits for positional value or opportunity cost!
That is precisely what I like about it! It just says what it says, and we project as best we can and see what happens!
I have a feeling DeAndre Baker won't be on the team after training camp.
It'll be interesting, though it's worth noting that while they brought in 3 CB's in the draft (and Lonnie Johnson) they lost 2 guys with significant snap counts, so the there are still spots for the taking!
Sneed, Fenton, Johnson, Baker, McDuffie, Watson and Williams with Chiefs usually keeping 6 CBs. I just don't think Baker fits their system well.
The Sean Smith comparison stood out to me....I'll take that any day of the week for a 7th rounder
Right, that's more the "ceiling" idea to be sure. Any time you can grab "traits" guys in later rounds, I think it's a good call.
My thoughts...and hopes....exactly
Can’t wait to see him play!
Really good article, as usual Seth.
It got me thinking, not only about Veach, but GMs in general. In most peoples opinion, Veachs' last two drafts have been outstanding - particularly in comparison to his first few drafts! Okay, I can see him getting lucky and having one outstanding draft, but two in a row? Maybe Veach, like some of our players, is just getting better, and growing into the GM job.
Which brings up a question: I know it's a little bit off what you normally do, but would you ever consider writing an article about what makes a good GM? I think it was the Athletic (or ESPN?) that did a recent article on ranking the GM's, but I don't believe I've ever seen an article on what qualities go into making a good GM in professional football. What do teams look for when they hire someone for that job? Obviously you have to have a nose for talent, but is that pretty much it? How important is the financial and contract stuff? I know Dorsey was a guy that could judge talent but despite that he was let go apparently because of his inability to handle cap issues. Anyway, given the outstanding analysis you give to player evaluations, it would be great to see something like that for GMs!
The Chiefs have a different view of positional value, and how to translate it into a draft board, than many/most franchises. Eg, CEH over Tee Higgins.
Veach has effectively plugged holes at lower value positions, but the jury is still out whether he can built and sustain a complete roster.
Maybe a different view is better.
Veach hasn't had a lot of first-round draft choices to work with. IMO he has done more than just plug holes at a lower value positions. He was able to add high quality players at these positions. Yes I would prefer Higgins over CEH, but you can always find examples of a better player taken later by another team than the player you took. How about the reverse of that? I'm pretty sure other teams are kicking themselves for not picking several of last year's and this year's Chiefs players when they had the chance.
I think it's been recognized by most analysts over the last few years that the majority of players Veach drafted are considered higher draft choices than where Veach picked them, and therefore better value. To be able to do that consistently when you are always picking at the bottom end of the draft rounds is really a credit to Veach.
True, the jury is still out on whether he can build and sustain a complete roster, but the team over the last few years, at least on paper, has gotten better. I don't know how the Chiefs work the draft. Maybe Andy Reid and Spags have a lot more influence on who we pick, but at least from what they say, most of the credit (and I assume blame) for the draft belongs to Veach.
Nice to have in-depth analysis on late round picks. I like his chances of adding depth to the team.
All I heard was Charvarious Ward 2.0
I’m shocked! Shocked, I tell you! To learn that Seth doesn’t have immediate access to All-22 film from Fayetteville State! Actually, one of the draftnicks on the Athletic Football Show said there is a whole underground economy in college coach’s film and that getting stuff from smaller schools can require certain ethical compromises that none of us would want an ordained minister and prosecutorial attorney to make.
Seventh round picks are all long shot gambles, but this kid looks like a reasonable bet. If he hits as well as Fenton did (I know, totally different players and skill sets. Just overall level of success) then he’s a huge win.
One quick question maybe I missed it in the article how does he play the ball does he get his head around when on deep balls.
Something went haywire at substack - no one can tell me what it was - and I've been completely locked out of the site for a few days even though I showed up as a paid subscriber in their records. I finally convinced them to completely delete me as a user and let me start fresh with a different email address.
And voila I'm back! (I'm absolutely certain that all of you were deeply concerned about this.) Anyway it will be nice to start getting my daily dose of Seth and conversation again!
Just reread the article since it's been a few days... That first video clip of the WR falling ignominiously to the turf several yards down field was pretty entertaining! I'd forgotten about that one....
I predict a 99-yard pick six and two postseason interceptions. :)