For most of the season Kansas City has been the only team to stop Kansas City. And Sunday, those execution errors resurfaced along with some failure of in-game strategy.
Great rationale as always Seth. This GAME! THIS PARTICULAR GAME!!!! I hope the team can put it behind them easier than us fans are because it is KILLING ME! I'd have rather lost 44-13 I think than play John Dorsey (cuda/wuda/shuda) for the past two days.
I agree with you on all points (as I often do). I hope they eliminate the coverage errors and missed tackles on defense and the drops on offense because I do not expect them to learn anything from this and change their tactics on either side of the ball, despite the huge cost this loss likely had. A bye in the playoffs is gold.
Great analysis once again. I actually think this defeat happening now might be a blessing in disguise. Better to have these errors happen now than in the playoffs.
I was watching with my mom who isn't a football fan. And even she was asking why we didn't let them score on that last drive. She got BIG mad at them. It was funny, despite the frustration
I'm afraid this is who Andy Reid is. His game management has always been questionable. That Hitchens quote frustrates me because they were only planning on letting them score when it was so obvious that Cincy shouldn't score. With tactical decisions, you need to be one step ahead of your opponent. Reid has always been this way. I wonder if anyone has ever looked at Reid's propensity for conservative playcalling in the second ha...oh my goodness!
Appreciate the analysis, as always. One point I'd like to play coach's advocate on–the decision to not let the Bengals score. Things actually worked out quite well until the penalty on 4th down. The Chiefs stopped them and would have had the ball with a chance to get a field goal to win. The stop was quite impressive (and despite Tony Romo's musing, we can be fairly certain the Bengals were indeed trying to score) and the defense isn't getting any love for it. If that penalty on 4th down doesn't happen, I wonder if we're even having a conversation about the option to "freeway." What do you think?
What you said!!! So damn frustrating on so many plays and so many levels. Add all this to why Spags never decided to double team the record setting receiver previously discussed *steam coming out of ears* Thanks
I was screaming at the TV to let them score as soon as they got the first down at the one. But that whole sequence reminded me of the Raiders game in which the refs were determined to give the Raiders as many downs as necessary to get the winning score. That may have to to do with the aggressive form of man coverage Spags teaches but those ticky tack penalties seem to get called much more often against the Chiefs than their opponents. A conspiracy theorist might say the Shield had a plan for the playoffs and brought in a ringer ref to make it happen. Not that I personally would ever suspect such a thing.
In real time I was made at Ward for not diving at Chase's feet. Watching this gif, I'm mad at him for not flying to the football. You can't just assume someone else is going to make the tackle. Grrr.
The coaching decisions are made much easier by proper execution. Burrow was good, but also got help from his receivers. Had Hill and Kelce each made another catch, our coaches would likely not have been put in excruciating situations. If the defense makes tackles (it looked like a combination of lack of focus, under estimating their opponent and at times lack of effort), a different discussion would be had. It is clear that this coaching staff needed to be placed in this situation, so maybe there is sunlight behind the clouds currently engulfing us. Hopefully, we will be laughing about this on February 13th about 9 P.M. But getting guys healthy and keeping them that way just got harder. Also, and I'm struggling to let this go: Chiefs coaches and players, please insulate yourselves from bad officiating. 4 stops on 3rd and 4th downs turned into points for the Bengals. 6 total 1st downs from Chiefs penalties. They had too much impact on the outcome. Don't let them! Andy, put the hammer down like you did in Vegas (where you succeeded on a fake punt with the lead) (go for it on 4th and 6, PLEASE)!
We both acknowledge that the 4th and 6th was a close call, but I come down on the other side and think the decision to punt was sound. I agree with your analysis by and large but would add just a couple of points which I think point in the other direction.
First, the Chiefs I think are pretty clearly the more talented, well-rounded team. Any given Sunday, and all that, and Cincy clearly has some amazing offensive skill position players. But it makes sense as the "better team" to play a lower variance style than when facing a talent discrepancy. If we had played against Carolina the way they played against us last year, we would think our coaches had lost it. That is definitely a more extreme example, but I think this is an important point in the broader context of the game.
Second, it is relatively early in the game - still in the third quarter - and the one thing that the Bengals had not done all game is sustain drives. There was zero reason to believe that the offense would only have the ball one more time. I was driving home from out of town, so I listened to Mitch's radio broadcast. I sat down to watch the game Sunday night, even knowing the outcome, and I didn't believe they would only get the ball one more time even though I knew the outcome.
Given that, I think there is every tendency to trust the defense. Except for a couple ridiculous plays, the defense had played pretty well. The defensive line was clearly winning over and over again. Chris Jones was a beast the whole game (as usual) and it sure felt like the entire defensive line was contributing with pressures.
The Cincy offensive skill players give them a puncher's chance in any game, but the correct strategy facing that opponent is not to get into the center of the ring and trade haymakers. Offensively, we didn't try to counter 70 yard touchdowns with forcing the ball down the field, but were patient and ruthlessly efficient.
I think the offensive game plan was pretty much perfectly calibrated to the game on the field. The defensive game plan was to throw haymakers; that I do not understand in the slightest, especially as we got deeper into the game.
I think the "let them score" scenario is right but the timing is wrong. The time to let them score was on first and goal from the one (maybe 2nd and goal). By the time you get to 3rd down you have to assume they will kick a field goal on 4th and therefore you have to try to stop them. Then on 4th down you have to try to stop them because you've already held them 3 downs and the pressure is on the offense.
Again, I think let them score is correct but I think you have to do it on 1st down when the clock is over 2 minutes and you have 2 timeouts.
Although I don't believe the NFL "fixes" games, I believe they do what they can to maximize revenue for the league and for certain entities in Vegas, including coaching the refs on how they'd like a game to play out and instructing them to do what they can to make it so.
I heard from a "source" that big money had come in on the Chiefs over 12.5 wins for the season. I think that may have played a part in how this game turned out.
That being said, sometimes this goes against you and sometimes it's in your favor. It's part of being in the NFL, and Reid knows this. Just so happened that Sunday was not their day.
I’m still not in full agreement that the zero blitz on 3rd and 27 was a “terrible” decision. If you were asked before knowing the outcome of the play what you would rather have between these two options then what would you say:
1. Play deep coverage thus making it easy for Cincinnati to pick up 10-15 yards to get into field goal range.
2. Play an aggressive blitz requiring Burrow to throw up a long jump ball roughly 1.5 seconds after the snap, resulting in having to punt to the Chiefs in a tie game with 3 minutes left if it’s incomplete.
Keeping Cincinnati out of field goal range there would have been HUGE, especially since they only had one time out left. That means the Chiefs would only have to move the ball about 40 yards with a few runs sprinkled in to basically ice the game with a field goal of their own. Yes I know Chase is really good, but he’s not the creator incarnate. Even Hill as good as he is dropped a pass right in his bread basket earlier; Chase making that 30 yard catch was a low probability play, you can’t assume otherwise and ignore the benefit of the higher probability of keeping points off the board.
Great rationale as always Seth. This GAME! THIS PARTICULAR GAME!!!! I hope the team can put it behind them easier than us fans are because it is KILLING ME! I'd have rather lost 44-13 I think than play John Dorsey (cuda/wuda/shuda) for the past two days.
I agree with you on all points (as I often do). I hope they eliminate the coverage errors and missed tackles on defense and the drops on offense because I do not expect them to learn anything from this and change their tactics on either side of the ball, despite the huge cost this loss likely had. A bye in the playoffs is gold.
Great analysis once again. I actually think this defeat happening now might be a blessing in disguise. Better to have these errors happen now than in the playoffs.
I was watching with my mom who isn't a football fan. And even she was asking why we didn't let them score on that last drive. She got BIG mad at them. It was funny, despite the frustration
I'm afraid this is who Andy Reid is. His game management has always been questionable. That Hitchens quote frustrates me because they were only planning on letting them score when it was so obvious that Cincy shouldn't score. With tactical decisions, you need to be one step ahead of your opponent. Reid has always been this way. I wonder if anyone has ever looked at Reid's propensity for conservative playcalling in the second ha...oh my goodness!
https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/12/22/14050720/is-chiefs-coach-andy-reid-too-conservative-testing-narratives
REALLY hoping Reid and his coaches are having THIS conversation…
Appreciate the analysis, as always. One point I'd like to play coach's advocate on–the decision to not let the Bengals score. Things actually worked out quite well until the penalty on 4th down. The Chiefs stopped them and would have had the ball with a chance to get a field goal to win. The stop was quite impressive (and despite Tony Romo's musing, we can be fairly certain the Bengals were indeed trying to score) and the defense isn't getting any love for it. If that penalty on 4th down doesn't happen, I wonder if we're even having a conversation about the option to "freeway." What do you think?
What you said!!! So damn frustrating on so many plays and so many levels. Add all this to why Spags never decided to double team the record setting receiver previously discussed *steam coming out of ears* Thanks
I was screaming at the TV to let them score as soon as they got the first down at the one. But that whole sequence reminded me of the Raiders game in which the refs were determined to give the Raiders as many downs as necessary to get the winning score. That may have to to do with the aggressive form of man coverage Spags teaches but those ticky tack penalties seem to get called much more often against the Chiefs than their opponents. A conspiracy theorist might say the Shield had a plan for the playoffs and brought in a ringer ref to make it happen. Not that I personally would ever suspect such a thing.
In real time I was made at Ward for not diving at Chase's feet. Watching this gif, I'm mad at him for not flying to the football. You can't just assume someone else is going to make the tackle. Grrr.
The coaching decisions are made much easier by proper execution. Burrow was good, but also got help from his receivers. Had Hill and Kelce each made another catch, our coaches would likely not have been put in excruciating situations. If the defense makes tackles (it looked like a combination of lack of focus, under estimating their opponent and at times lack of effort), a different discussion would be had. It is clear that this coaching staff needed to be placed in this situation, so maybe there is sunlight behind the clouds currently engulfing us. Hopefully, we will be laughing about this on February 13th about 9 P.M. But getting guys healthy and keeping them that way just got harder. Also, and I'm struggling to let this go: Chiefs coaches and players, please insulate yourselves from bad officiating. 4 stops on 3rd and 4th downs turned into points for the Bengals. 6 total 1st downs from Chiefs penalties. They had too much impact on the outcome. Don't let them! Andy, put the hammer down like you did in Vegas (where you succeeded on a fake punt with the lead) (go for it on 4th and 6, PLEASE)!
We both acknowledge that the 4th and 6th was a close call, but I come down on the other side and think the decision to punt was sound. I agree with your analysis by and large but would add just a couple of points which I think point in the other direction.
First, the Chiefs I think are pretty clearly the more talented, well-rounded team. Any given Sunday, and all that, and Cincy clearly has some amazing offensive skill position players. But it makes sense as the "better team" to play a lower variance style than when facing a talent discrepancy. If we had played against Carolina the way they played against us last year, we would think our coaches had lost it. That is definitely a more extreme example, but I think this is an important point in the broader context of the game.
Second, it is relatively early in the game - still in the third quarter - and the one thing that the Bengals had not done all game is sustain drives. There was zero reason to believe that the offense would only have the ball one more time. I was driving home from out of town, so I listened to Mitch's radio broadcast. I sat down to watch the game Sunday night, even knowing the outcome, and I didn't believe they would only get the ball one more time even though I knew the outcome.
Given that, I think there is every tendency to trust the defense. Except for a couple ridiculous plays, the defense had played pretty well. The defensive line was clearly winning over and over again. Chris Jones was a beast the whole game (as usual) and it sure felt like the entire defensive line was contributing with pressures.
The Cincy offensive skill players give them a puncher's chance in any game, but the correct strategy facing that opponent is not to get into the center of the ring and trade haymakers. Offensively, we didn't try to counter 70 yard touchdowns with forcing the ball down the field, but were patient and ruthlessly efficient.
I think the offensive game plan was pretty much perfectly calibrated to the game on the field. The defensive game plan was to throw haymakers; that I do not understand in the slightest, especially as we got deeper into the game.
I think the "let them score" scenario is right but the timing is wrong. The time to let them score was on first and goal from the one (maybe 2nd and goal). By the time you get to 3rd down you have to assume they will kick a field goal on 4th and therefore you have to try to stop them. Then on 4th down you have to try to stop them because you've already held them 3 downs and the pressure is on the offense.
Again, I think let them score is correct but I think you have to do it on 1st down when the clock is over 2 minutes and you have 2 timeouts.
Although I don't believe the NFL "fixes" games, I believe they do what they can to maximize revenue for the league and for certain entities in Vegas, including coaching the refs on how they'd like a game to play out and instructing them to do what they can to make it so.
I heard from a "source" that big money had come in on the Chiefs over 12.5 wins for the season. I think that may have played a part in how this game turned out.
That being said, sometimes this goes against you and sometimes it's in your favor. It's part of being in the NFL, and Reid knows this. Just so happened that Sunday was not their day.
I’m still not in full agreement that the zero blitz on 3rd and 27 was a “terrible” decision. If you were asked before knowing the outcome of the play what you would rather have between these two options then what would you say:
1. Play deep coverage thus making it easy for Cincinnati to pick up 10-15 yards to get into field goal range.
2. Play an aggressive blitz requiring Burrow to throw up a long jump ball roughly 1.5 seconds after the snap, resulting in having to punt to the Chiefs in a tie game with 3 minutes left if it’s incomplete.
Keeping Cincinnati out of field goal range there would have been HUGE, especially since they only had one time out left. That means the Chiefs would only have to move the ball about 40 yards with a few runs sprinkled in to basically ice the game with a field goal of their own. Yes I know Chase is really good, but he’s not the creator incarnate. Even Hill as good as he is dropped a pass right in his bread basket earlier; Chase making that 30 yard catch was a low probability play, you can’t assume otherwise and ignore the benefit of the higher probability of keeping points off the board.