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deletedMar 18, 2022·edited Mar 18, 2022
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It's definitely a sign that the division is trying to catch up to where the Chiefs are at. Whether they succeeded will remain to be seen, but it's definitely a lot to process.

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FRIDAY!

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founding

Wow.....

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deletedMar 17, 2022·edited Mar 17, 2022
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I'm curious if KC doubles down on RT.

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Get the right tackle to perfect this line and change the offensive philosophy a tad by running the ball more and using play action.

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I am even worried about one Chris Jones, who did precious little in the Bengals debacle. Seems he has issues turning it on when we really need him to, and that OL he was up against had just given up a boatload of sacks in previous games. So, it could be even worse than you describe on the DL.

Veach is going to show his true talent (or lack there of) now, with his back against the wall and his options limited. I don't doubt he can work his way out of the jamb, but he's certainly allowed things to deteriorate relative to the rest of the AFC West. Do you think there is little shot that they bring Ingraham back? That would surely help, and I'm guessing he liked playing for such a family oriented organization.

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founding

And how about pursuing La’el Collins for RT? RT is a big question that just became bigger with our competition signing all these edge rushers.

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founding

Well, there’s that! 😁

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Based on his film I don't agree at all about Jones tbh. He was the only pass rusher (besides Ingram at times) doing anything against the Bengals. He's the reason Burrow was on the run pretty much any time he was on the run. The lack of efficacy elsewhere made it not lead to sacks.

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Thank you Seth. Chiefs Kingdom needed this article.

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It's worth looking at both sides of many arguments, this is one of them!

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The public is panicking - Veach has a tough job and we yet to see player restructuring and where they go from there. So, okay. I just had a panic attack. I admit it.

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hahahaha

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I'd much prefer the Chiefs avoid signing any free agent WRs when they can easily snag one in rounds 1 or 2 of the draft who can be our 3rd option of the future. Same deal with CBs and Safeties -- there's plenty of good DBs in this draft class. But agree, it's time to panic about the DL, since it's traditionally difficult to find an instant impact DE or OLB outside of a top 15 pick. Danielle Hunter would be a game-changer, but, and this may not be a popular opinion, I'd rather hang onto the draft capital we'd need to give up for him and draft a WR like Pickens, London, Jameson, Watson, or Burks. Getting a stud WR on a rookie deal, given how much even mediocre WRs get paid nowadays, feels crucial. My recommendation would be to resign Ingram, sign Hicks, sign Patrick Peterson, and draft a DE or DT in round 1 or 2 (whichever you don't take a WR). Then draft another Safety with one of our 3rd rounders.

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founding

To be fair, those guys weren't taken on Veach's watch. I'm afraid you're as old as I am and remember those names from the gravestones of past Chiefs drafts.

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That's totally fair! I will say that in most of those cases we were looking for our WR1 and we're fortunate to already have our top two options in Kelce and Hill, so finding a guy who's good at 1 thing--whether it's 50/50 balls (London, Burks) or winning with shiftiness out of the slot (Olave)--should be easier than trying find the next Hopkins or Odell. Plus, there has been an incredibly high success rate for WRs in recent classes, and especially in circumstances where a team has a good to great QB (Jefferson, Lamb, Metcalf, Brown, Chase, Waddle, Smith, etc.). Not saying drafting a WR in rounds 1 or 2 will definitely work out--we could draft another lukewarm WR in Hardman. I'm more saying I'd rather spend money elsewhere and gamble on a WR since our offense is already terrific and this is a good WR draft class.

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I agree with this take! Just think there are legit WR2s in this draft. Maybe draft a WR in both the 1st and 2nd round if you want to ensure you get a stud haha. But paying a proven, veteran WR right now is so preposterously expensive that KC should direct their funds elsewhere in my opinion. I'd be okay with KC spending big money on RT for instance. Putting money into the office isn't a bad idea; just don't think the price tag for a proven WR is fair at the moment.

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founding

How do you like the Juju signing?

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deletedMar 18, 2022·edited Mar 18, 2022
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I honestly expect more than 800 and 6...he's good...most of his yards next season will be in the first 8-9 games as defenses adjust...assuming they still try the 7 dropping back philosophy

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I appreciate you talking me down from the ledge. Why haven't they converted Mahomes' money to a signing bonus yet, or extended Tyreek? Is that what's slowing down FA for them, they simply have not made the moves to free up cap space? Or is it all a part of the master plan and I just need to relax? You've talked me off the ledge, for now, but I can still see it from where I am, and retain the right to walk back to it if need be!

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founding

I've read many places that Mahomes contract can't be converted until the first day of the new league started and they have 3 days to complete the deal. Outlined in the CBA.

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Agreed. I think the league year started yesterday, and I hoped they would make the conversion then. I'm impatient, lol.

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founding

Guess the Smith-Shuster deal answers our question about Mahomes contract 🤣

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I've heard that, but have no idea how accurate that is tbh. It would at least explain some of it, but that's a bummer.

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founding

I think Friday is the magic moment. I know a lot of good prospects are now gone but perhaps they have agreements in place that will cascade post-Friday. 🤞

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Extending Tyreek is something I think should've been done by now, but it obviously depends on what the ask is.

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I think they'd keep and tag him if nothing else, THEN trade him (ala Adams) if all else fails in an extension.

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Is nobody concerned about Frank Clark's pending court cases?

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Not that they'll result in that long a suspension, no. I guess we'll see, but I'm guessing it'll be more like 2-4 games.

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"What's with all the negativity? " Kelly's Heroes

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That's potentially a fourth of the season. This whole situation just seems odd to me that they'd keep him. I guess they both know his market wouldn't be good so they're making it work

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founding

Just make those four games the ones he was going to play poorest in.

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Right, in comparison to what it would cost them to just cut him he's "cheap," though that's partly (a lot) a referendum on that contract to begin with.

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I'm also wondering how much of the Chief's lack of moves being the rest of the NFL overpaying so far in Free Agency.

Lets go through some of the players the Chiefs could and/or should have been attempting to sign:

Chris Godwin - franchise tagged so they never got an opportunity to offer, plus not sure they would have been willing to give him $20/mil a year anyway if he did become a free agent

Davante Adams - also tagged, and I again don't think they'd be willing to pay him $25+ mil/year

Von Miller - No way they were gonna pay him $20 mil for 6 years like the Bills. They might have been willing to do $20/3, but even that I'm skeptical of. Plus I'm not sure how Veach feels about paying for a 33 y/o edge rusher.

Randy Gregory - Don't think we would be willing to invest $70 million into a player who can't stay on the field either due to injury or drugs. Plus this last year was the first year he was even a starter.

Chandler Jones - I feel like we could have matched/gone slightly higher than $17/3, but he's also 32 and it's again possible Veach didn't want to commit to a player that old.

Za'Darius Smith - This is the one player I think we missed out on. Could have easily given him $40/4 years (or even a bit more) for a player that is easily superior to Clark and potentially much more. Maybe him being 30 at the start of the season matters that much? Could also be scared away from his back injury, those can be tricky.

Khalil Mack - I feel like I'm just repeating myself, but another past 30 y/o edge rusher whom we're unlikely to commit many dollars too long term. His contract seemed pretty friendly overall but I'm also not sure if Veach wanted to trade picks for him either.

J.C. Jackson - I've never got the impression that Veach is interested in paying top dollar for a CB. Maybe that changes this year or in the future but I never expected us to land him. Kind of a bummer he's in the division but whatever.

Christian Kirk - lmao

Mike Williams - I never thought we'd go after him but I did want to comment another LMAO for this one

At any rate, this is just a long winded way of me saying that it looks like Veach isn't willing to overspend for players, especially if they're over 30, and so if you take players over 30 off the board there aren't many obvious answers left. It's still possible we're still in the mix for Allen Robinson but I think it's wise to be patient until after the draft and see where we're at then. We could also (and I hope we do) still re-sign Ingram which would help I think, though he's ALSO over 30 so who knows!

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I think there's some truth into the overpaying going on around the league, though there have been some really reasonable contracts (the CB's especially) getting doled out there. So it's a mixed bag IMO. I do appreciate a detailed list like this, helps put it in perspective!

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deletedMar 17, 2022·edited Mar 17, 2022
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I think the term "overpaid" is more (in a football context) a discussion on cost/benefit, positional value, and anticipated level of play in a fictitious world with a cap on spending that, while flexible, is something that has to be accounted for.

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Lucky for us Veach is getting a second chance on Zadarius Smith. I hope he goes after him. I'd give that deal the Ravens gave him in a heartbeat

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I'm more concerned about the Chiefs winning in January and February rather than March. That said, feeling a touch unsettled.

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Absolutely. The way last year went gives fans every reason to at least be a bit concerned, despite the deep playoff run. The lack of consistency was at least a little alarming.

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Mar 17, 2022Liked by Seth Keysor

In Veach I trust. He’s done EXACTLY what he said he’d do in each of the last 3 off seasons. Prior to ‘19 he rebuilt the defense. Prior to ‘20 he retained all the key players to “Run it Back”. And last year he overhauled the O-Line.

He may not be doing it on the timeline everyone wants, but I’d MUCH RATHER him be meticulous and get it right, than do it quick and overspend / get it wrong. As far as I know, we are still several months away from any meaningful games.

Do your thing Veach! Keep being a “wonder kid”. (Shout out to Ted Lasso…)

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I like your optimism, and hope you're 110% correct!

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Oh boy… The Tyreek Hill trade just took an enormous bite out of my previous vote of confidence.

I may not be fully on-board the panic train, but I’m definitely standing in the terminal and looking at the ticket prices…

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Indeed, SO much now rides on the draft.

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Mar 17, 2022·edited Mar 30, 2022

My concern is a little different, Seth.

Last off-season, Veach had went after the best LT in the business during the legal tampering period and went toe-to-toe with the 49ers to get him. The end result of the OL was the progression through B-Z after the failure of plan A.

But I think my biggest concern is that Patrick’s contract hasn't been restructured yet. It was a no-brainer move that both sides knew was coming and needed to be done. They likely understood the moves they’d be doing each off-season from the moment they agreed to terms, and yet it wasn’t done in a timely matter.

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They literally can't restructure it (convert the roster bonus to signing bonus) until tomorrow because that's when the roster bonus is supposed to pay out.

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I have seen that nowhere. It was guaranteed the moment he signed the contract so unless there’s something I’m missing, it can be converted into signing bonus whenever. In fact, I even found an article from February suggesting it would be something they’d do before March 18th. If you have a link to someone in the know saying otherwise, I’d be happy to look at it.

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It's something Nate mentioned during a Q&A, from what I'm told. Nate doesn't really guess, but I haven't seen the exact quote so IDK.

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Mar 30, 2022·edited Mar 30, 2022

So I wanted to come back here because

1) it has now been more than 10 days since March 18th and it didn’t happen, so….

2) I just heard Chris Clark of Locked On Chiefs say the exact opposite: because the Roster Bonus becomes a guarantee on the 3rd day of the league year, it can not be converted after that time. It can be converted before, but not after.

I’m going to go with my original belief & confirmation bias. Can I say common sense too? It would seem to be very stupid on the part of Veach & his cap gurus to structure Pat’s contract so that his roster bonuses cannot be converted until the 3rd day of FA, thereby hamstringing the Chiefs’ cap by not being able to convert the roster bonus on or before the day they have to be under the cap and/or the start of FA.

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Yeah, it feels weird to me that they would structure it in a way to where they couldn't. The latter (what Chris said) feels more likely to be accurate.

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It's much easier to build a good IOL than to build a good pass rush. You mention where the chiefs were at this point last year, but are you not remembering how abysmal the defense was to start last year? Veach hasn't shown an ability to acquire DL talent. Ppl point to Trey Smith as a great pick but the Chiefs had Josh Kaindoh graded higher than Smith. I've been a broken record on this, but Veach has generally not invested heavily in key positions, and it's now showing. He's spent 1st/2nd round picks on LBx2, OC, FS, RB, and WR. We have major deficiencies at key positions (edge, CB particularly). We're feeling the repercussions for the 2018 draft and all the wasted picks (+ Clark trade). You can get a day 1 impact starter in the 2nd round at OC...not at edge.

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founding

I'm going to have to disagree with you. Veach heavily invested in the most key position on a team. Chiefs fans can't argue with that decision and we're going to pay for having the best QB in the NFL.

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I'm not sure I understand your point. Just because Veach signed Mahomes to a massive contract doesn't mean he doesn't need to address other key positions. Here's a fun stat: Chiefs gave up a first and 3rd to move up to draft mahomes. They gave up a 1st and 2nd to sign Clark to a massive contract.

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Her point was that Veach has invested heavily in most key positions on the team, which is accurate, though it's worth noting that a few of those heavy investments didn't pan out (problematic). It's hard to find a position they haven't invested heavily in outside of CB.

It's also worth noting that when you reference a major deficiency at CB, that's a brand-new issue, as their CB play has been solid multiple years running (though it's ABSOLUTELY something to examine).

None of this is to state there aren't concerns, just noting that particular issue is a new one.

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That's not how I read it. "Veach heavily invested in the most key position..." implies investment at QB. Positional value is somewhat debatable but if we look at the consensus, it's QB #1 (duh) and then some combination of OT, WR, CB, Edge. Here is how Veach has spent his 1st-3rd round picks:

2018 - 2nd - Speaks

- 3rd - Nnadi, DOD

2019 - 1st - traded for Clark

2nd - Hardman, Thornhill

3rd - Saunders, plus pick for Clark

2020 - 1st - CEH

- 2nd - Gay

- 3rd - Niang

2021 - 1st - Brown trade, got additional 2nd

- 2nd - Bolton, Creed

- 3rd - part of Brown trade

Veach has had or received roughly 14 picks in the 1st 3 rounds. He's used 7 of them on premium positions (but only getting 5 players). None of those 5 players are truly elite at their positions. One is completely out of the league. This is how you get the Chiefs to their aging, top-heavy roster construction with several holes currently, particularly on defense. I'm not the only one that feels this way: https://twitter.com/Matty_KCSN/status/1504560973650214916

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So I think the issue is less with the investment but the results, no? At least that's the way I'm viewing that. Or do you believe that they failed to double down at those same positions and that's part of the issue (of lacking enough investment from you POV)?

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I'd say both. If you're trading 2 picks for Frank, you need to be right and not get 4 underwhelming and expensive years. There was a clear and obvious need for edge last year, and the team talked itself into Jones at DE. That didn't work, thus the trade for Ingram who, while a good player, could've been had for no draft pick compensation. And I like Gay and Bolton, but we've spent consecutive seconds round picks on LBs who don't see the field on 3rd down (if this is a coaching issue, then Veach and Spags need to get on the same page there).

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founding

Actually, the Chiefs surrendered two firsts and a third in return for Patrick.

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And got a first back.

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founding

But bottom line, Chiefs - Mahomes, Bills - 1st, 1st, 3rd.

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I was comparing to the Clark trade. Chiefs have up 2 picks for a player. For mahomes, chiefs gave up 2 picks to move up X number of spots. It's important because drafting the player comes along with the rookie contract, which was instrumental in getting the SB.

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Mar 17, 2022·edited Mar 17, 2022

My point is that,

IMO Veach HAS invested in the positions he and the coaching staff have identified as priorities. Just used PM2 as the most obvious. And dont you think positional value should be evaluated by more than just Veach's draft picks?

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Who has Veach acquired at premium positions where he spent a high draft pick or significant cap space?

Edge=Clark, Speaks

WR=Hardman

CB=nobody really, maybe Breeland

OT=Brown, Niang (3rd round)

He has invested heavily in IOL, LB, and RB. Not exactly the most important positions.

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At WR you forgot about Watkins. That was a huge investment/contract. They also re-signed Hill and Kelce (obvious moves, but ones that involved significant investments) on his watch. Since we're talking about investment level, spending money on retention at the position has to come into play as well.

And in terms of OT, that's a bit of a weird one because until post-2020 he had literally no reason to invest in OT at a premium level. They had a pair of highly-paid stalwarts at the position, it would've been bizarre for them to spend a 1st rounder or another significant investment at OT.

I don't disagree that picking a RB in the 1st round was a bad decision, to be sure.

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I completely agree with the problem in drafting those positions, that's why I mentioned it :)

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Mar 17, 2022·edited Mar 17, 2022

As much as I dislike (read as: think the other AFC West teams got better) the moves of our rivals during FA, I'm not as high on the Raiders signing of Jones. I have not followed him closely over the years, but the big stat they like to throw out is his 10.5 sacks last year. I believe 5 of those came in one game towards the end of the season. Thanks to Seth I know there's more to success than just sacks but that move doesn't scare me as much as some of the other moves by the Chargers and Broncos.

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Yeah, the sack stat doesn't scare me, but he's got consistently good pressure on the QB and his tape (based on a brief look) still looks really good. One of the only people to give Trent Williams any trouble at all last year. :(

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