An examination of what Mahomes and the Chiefs do when trailing shows why they're so dangerous in close games.
Yes many times I've felt like PM2 has just elevated his game when they're behind. In turn elevating his teammates level of play..
The EPA comparison charts from 2018 to now are crazy. So glad you and the analytics guys found ways to quantify there is such a thing as a clutch gene. Thanks for another great read.
Great piece. It tells us the story of why we all know that Patrick Mahomes is special and verifies what our eyes tell us. Thanks(and to Ethan and Lyndon as well!).
You didn't touch of the craziest part of the charts. When you look at the 95% confidence intervals Mahomes lower band brushes the upper band of 2nd place. The simple way to say that is in situations where teams are down/expected to pass when 2nd place is playing out of their mind, the best you might ever expect them to play, they are just as good as Mahomes on his worst days.
I love it! I have some family that are Raiders fans (I know, almost had to cut contact with them) who didn't think Mahomes was anything special for all of 2018 and 2019. I'll just have to see what they think of this data, lol.
Thank you for quantifying what I was feeling, I thought no lead was insurmountable with Mahomes at the helm and your work shows why anyone else as MVP is absurd.
THIS is why you're the best, Seth. You take what you believe you see and perceive on the eye test and then set out to confirm what you believed is indeed reality. With a little help from your friends, that's exactly what occurred in this piece. When describing the brilliance of Pat to fans of other teams and even other Chiefs fans, I struggle to quantify just how much better he is than mere mortals. Thanks to you, Ethan and Lyndon, all that's required is a link to the article, making it easy for me. It's greatly appreciated. Merry Christmas to you and your family!
This really just confirms what we see. So much fun. I used to watch the Chiefs when I could, read about them constantly, etc. With Patrick they are now almost mandatory viewing. I keep telling my wife "He's different. It's different. I've never seen anyone do the things he does, and I don't want to miss his next 'What did I just see?' moment."
This is one of the best Christmas Eve gifts I've ever received. And to think... He's. Just. Getting. Started.
This is fascinating, Seth, and I think you guys have broken analytics Twitter if my feed is anything to go by.
One point of skepticism: even a three year sample for Mahomes is probably quite a bit smaller than that for guys like Manning, Brady and the rest of the long-time veterans. I would be interested to know what the best 3-year sample is for some of these players and/or what the n-value is for each of the players in the charts presented here.
I fully expect that Mahomes will still compare well vs other elite QBs, but I do think context matters. Also, since I'm seeing that Ryan Tannehill is now the most productive QB in the NFL, I have to wonder how well he plays in the clutch.
Seth, thanks so much for this data. One question that I need help with...
On the last graph we see how Patrick progressively excels as pass probability increases. His EPA vastly exceeds the others. But back at the other end of the spectrum, lowest pass probability, his EPA is the worst. I would have expected him to still be best or second, third best there too. I clearly do not understand the context of what is happening here. How can Patrick grade out worst at anything? 😉🤔
Great article, as always.
Merry Christmas, Seth, to you and your family.
Amazing, absurd, insane numbers. This is why people are comparing the Chiefs to Michael Myers and Jason Voorhees. Just when they've taken what ought to be a killing shot...here they come again.
And he is all ours!!!! Merry Christmas to everyone! Blessings to all and your families.
Wow, I knew we were witnessing greatness, but this is insane!
1. I had to look at the first chart several times before finding the Chiefs. 2. Petro has been talking about the 6 wins by less than a score a LOT but no one was sure what, if anything, it meant. This was a great article. Thanks
This is the greatest article ever.