Yes many times I've felt like PM2 has just elevated his game when they're behind. In turn elevating his teammates level of play..
The EPA comparison charts from 2018 to now are crazy. So glad you and the analytics guys found ways to quantify there is such a thing as a clutch gene. Thanks for another great read.
Great piece. It tells us the story of why we all know that Patrick Mahomes is special and verifies what our eyes tell us. Thanks(and to Ethan and Lyndon as well!).
You didn't touch of the craziest part of the charts. When you look at the 95% confidence intervals Mahomes lower band brushes the upper band of 2nd place. The simple way to say that is in situations where teams are down/expected to pass when 2nd place is playing out of their mind, the best you might ever expect them to play, they are just as good as Mahomes on his worst days.
I love it! I have some family that are Raiders fans (I know, almost had to cut contact with them) who didn't think Mahomes was anything special for all of 2018 and 2019. I'll just have to see what they think of this data, lol.
Thank you for quantifying what I was feeling, I thought no lead was insurmountable with Mahomes at the helm and your work shows why anyone else as MVP is absurd.
Rodgers is playing at SUCH a high level as well that I won't be irate if he wins, but Mahomes (IMO) does the most when the "plan" on offense isn't succeeding.
THIS is why you're the best, Seth. You take what you believe you see and perceive on the eye test and then set out to confirm what you believed is indeed reality. With a little help from your friends, that's exactly what occurred in this piece. When describing the brilliance of Pat to fans of other teams and even other Chiefs fans, I struggle to quantify just how much better he is than mere mortals. Thanks to you, Ethan and Lyndon, all that's required is a link to the article, making it easy for me. It's greatly appreciated. Merry Christmas to you and your family!
You're very, very kind to say that. I believe all analysis should be a search as to what really is going on, whether it confirms prior notions or not! I would've written about it had it turned out there was no discernable difference.
This really just confirms what we see. So much fun. I used to watch the Chiefs when I could, read about them constantly, etc. With Patrick they are now almost mandatory viewing. I keep telling my wife "He's different. It's different. I've never seen anyone do the things he does, and I don't want to miss his next 'What did I just see?' moment."
You should try grasping that fact after having been a Chiefs fan for 50 years! All those horrible QB's (I'm looking at you Todd Blackledge)! Now, if I live long enough, I get to watch my team have the GOAT & win SOME SUPER BOWLS!!
This is fascinating, Seth, and I think you guys have broken analytics Twitter if my feed is anything to go by.
One point of skepticism: even a three year sample for Mahomes is probably quite a bit smaller than that for guys like Manning, Brady and the rest of the long-time veterans. I would be interested to know what the best 3-year sample is for some of these players and/or what the n-value is for each of the players in the charts presented here.
I fully expect that Mahomes will still compare well vs other elite QBs, but I do think context matters. Also, since I'm seeing that Ryan Tannehill is now the most productive QB in the NFL, I have to wonder how well he plays in the clutch.
I'm glad you brought that up! Ethan actually went back and looked at the best 3 year stretch of many of those guys, and the results are still Mahomes in a landslide.
Additionally, keep in mind that in many ways Mahomes is HINDERED by utilizing the first 3 years of his career as opposed to his entire career. Most great QBs (actually, all but Marino that I've seen) are much, much better statistically after their first few seasons. So in a time where Mahomes should be at his worst, he's outperforming the best 3 year stretch of anyone in the last couple of decades.
With regards to Tannehill, check out the 2020 chart. They're 10th in EPA per dropback when trailing, and well behind KC.
Seth, thanks so much for this data. One question that I need help with...
On the last graph we see how Patrick progressively excels as pass probability increases. His EPA vastly exceeds the others. But back at the other end of the spectrum, lowest pass probability, his EPA is the worst. I would have expected him to still be best or second, third best there too. I clearly do not understand the context of what is happening here. How can Patrick grade out worst at anything? 😉🤔
I had the same thought, and here is the story that seems plausible to me, without access to the underlying data. When pass probability is at its lowest, Mahomes and the Chiefs are probably more likely to throw than anybody else on the list. The pass probability is based on score, time left, field position, etc., but it is across all teams. And so a team is going to be less surprised by the Chiefs throwing than the average team. And that would mean Mahomes had less of an element of surprise than any other QB on the list.
My extreme example is from the Monday night game a couple of weeks ago: Lamar Jackson comes hobbling in during the last couple of minutes for a fourth down with the Ravens down three. The Ravens are a running team; their quarterback still had the cotton ball on his arm where the IV needle had been. It sure felt like 99% probability that the Ravens were running there. So when they didn't, the Browns defense was exposed, and they gave up a massive touchdown.
Mahomes never gets that opportunity. In the same situation, where for the Ravens it was 99-1 probability for run/pass, it is closer to 50/50 for the Chiefs. And so the opposing defense won't sell out nearly as much, and the opportunity for the massive big play isn't there in the same way.
Generally, speaking, when you're talking about "run the clock out" situations, I think you're seeing the Chiefs dink and dunk their way to not really increasing their likelihood of scoring as they try to get the game to end.
Amazing, absurd, insane numbers. This is why people are comparing the Chiefs to Michael Myers and Jason Voorhees. Just when they've taken what ought to be a killing shot...here they come again.
1. I had to look at the first chart several times before finding the Chiefs. 2. Petro has been talking about the 6 wins by less than a score a LOT but no one was sure what, if anything, it meant. This was a great article. Thanks
Yes many times I've felt like PM2 has just elevated his game when they're behind. In turn elevating his teammates level of play..
The EPA comparison charts from 2018 to now are crazy. So glad you and the analytics guys found ways to quantify there is such a thing as a clutch gene. Thanks for another great read.
Glad you enjoyed it, he's a thrill to watch, analyze, and write about!
Great piece. It tells us the story of why we all know that Patrick Mahomes is special and verifies what our eyes tell us. Thanks(and to Ethan and Lyndon as well!).
Those guys are awesome.
You didn't touch of the craziest part of the charts. When you look at the 95% confidence intervals Mahomes lower band brushes the upper band of 2nd place. The simple way to say that is in situations where teams are down/expected to pass when 2nd place is playing out of their mind, the best you might ever expect them to play, they are just as good as Mahomes on his worst days.
Right???? I didn't want to get too deep into confidence intervals, etc, but that's an exceptional point!
I love it! I have some family that are Raiders fans (I know, almost had to cut contact with them) who didn't think Mahomes was anything special for all of 2018 and 2019. I'll just have to see what they think of this data, lol.
Denial, as they say, ain't just a river in Egypt.
Thank you for quantifying what I was feeling, I thought no lead was insurmountable with Mahomes at the helm and your work shows why anyone else as MVP is absurd.
Rodgers is playing at SUCH a high level as well that I won't be irate if he wins, but Mahomes (IMO) does the most when the "plan" on offense isn't succeeding.
THIS is why you're the best, Seth. You take what you believe you see and perceive on the eye test and then set out to confirm what you believed is indeed reality. With a little help from your friends, that's exactly what occurred in this piece. When describing the brilliance of Pat to fans of other teams and even other Chiefs fans, I struggle to quantify just how much better he is than mere mortals. Thanks to you, Ethan and Lyndon, all that's required is a link to the article, making it easy for me. It's greatly appreciated. Merry Christmas to you and your family!
You're very, very kind to say that. I believe all analysis should be a search as to what really is going on, whether it confirms prior notions or not! I would've written about it had it turned out there was no discernable difference.
This really just confirms what we see. So much fun. I used to watch the Chiefs when I could, read about them constantly, etc. With Patrick they are now almost mandatory viewing. I keep telling my wife "He's different. It's different. I've never seen anyone do the things he does, and I don't want to miss his next 'What did I just see?' moment."
Every game is an opportunity to see throws that most quarterbacks will never, ever complete.
This is one of the best Christmas Eve gifts I've ever received. And to think... He's. Just. Getting. Started.
The fact that he's signed on to be a Chief for the next DECADE is still something I can't get used to.
You should try grasping that fact after having been a Chiefs fan for 50 years! All those horrible QB's (I'm looking at you Todd Blackledge)! Now, if I live long enough, I get to watch my team have the GOAT & win SOME SUPER BOWLS!!
This is fascinating, Seth, and I think you guys have broken analytics Twitter if my feed is anything to go by.
One point of skepticism: even a three year sample for Mahomes is probably quite a bit smaller than that for guys like Manning, Brady and the rest of the long-time veterans. I would be interested to know what the best 3-year sample is for some of these players and/or what the n-value is for each of the players in the charts presented here.
I fully expect that Mahomes will still compare well vs other elite QBs, but I do think context matters. Also, since I'm seeing that Ryan Tannehill is now the most productive QB in the NFL, I have to wonder how well he plays in the clutch.
I'm glad you brought that up! Ethan actually went back and looked at the best 3 year stretch of many of those guys, and the results are still Mahomes in a landslide.
https://twitter.com/EthanCDouglas/status/1342253607861760001
Additionally, keep in mind that in many ways Mahomes is HINDERED by utilizing the first 3 years of his career as opposed to his entire career. Most great QBs (actually, all but Marino that I've seen) are much, much better statistically after their first few seasons. So in a time where Mahomes should be at his worst, he's outperforming the best 3 year stretch of anyone in the last couple of decades.
With regards to Tannehill, check out the 2020 chart. They're 10th in EPA per dropback when trailing, and well behind KC.
Seth, thanks so much for this data. One question that I need help with...
On the last graph we see how Patrick progressively excels as pass probability increases. His EPA vastly exceeds the others. But back at the other end of the spectrum, lowest pass probability, his EPA is the worst. I would have expected him to still be best or second, third best there too. I clearly do not understand the context of what is happening here. How can Patrick grade out worst at anything? 😉🤔
I had the same thought, and here is the story that seems plausible to me, without access to the underlying data. When pass probability is at its lowest, Mahomes and the Chiefs are probably more likely to throw than anybody else on the list. The pass probability is based on score, time left, field position, etc., but it is across all teams. And so a team is going to be less surprised by the Chiefs throwing than the average team. And that would mean Mahomes had less of an element of surprise than any other QB on the list.
My extreme example is from the Monday night game a couple of weeks ago: Lamar Jackson comes hobbling in during the last couple of minutes for a fourth down with the Ravens down three. The Ravens are a running team; their quarterback still had the cotton ball on his arm where the IV needle had been. It sure felt like 99% probability that the Ravens were running there. So when they didn't, the Browns defense was exposed, and they gave up a massive touchdown.
Mahomes never gets that opportunity. In the same situation, where for the Ravens it was 99-1 probability for run/pass, it is closer to 50/50 for the Chiefs. And so the opposing defense won't sell out nearly as much, and the opportunity for the massive big play isn't there in the same way.
Generally, speaking, when you're talking about "run the clock out" situations, I think you're seeing the Chiefs dink and dunk their way to not really increasing their likelihood of scoring as they try to get the game to end.
Great article, as always.
Merry Christmas, Seth, to you and your family.
Merry Christmas!
Amazing, absurd, insane numbers. This is why people are comparing the Chiefs to Michael Myers and Jason Voorhees. Just when they've taken what ought to be a killing shot...here they come again.
They can't be killed!
And he is all ours!!!! Merry Christmas to everyone! Blessings to all and your families.
Merry Christmas!
Wow, I knew we were witnessing greatness, but this is insane!
Feels like every time we peel back another layer about Mahomes' stats it gets nuttier.
1. I had to look at the first chart several times before finding the Chiefs. 2. Petro has been talking about the 6 wins by less than a score a LOT but no one was sure what, if anything, it meant. This was a great article. Thanks
Thanks for reading!
This is the greatest article ever.
He's so easy to write good articles about!