Earlier this week, I told someone I fully expected this game to have very low numbers of happy feet, missed shots, and potential INTs. He looked calm, the most comfortable in the pocket he's looked all season. Without a couple fluky INTs and barely missing Worthy deep and this is a excellent performance.
When you said the pass to Worthy could’ve been a TD with more air under it, I almost jumped up and screamed, “Vindication!” Which would have scared my cats, and nobody wants to deal with that mess.
I’ve noticed Patrick’s deep passes are often thrown on a lower trajectory (example: the long TD to Rice that cleared the CB’s hand by about an inch). With speed guys (especially ones that track the ball well) it’s always better to give the ball extra air- they’ll run under it and, since it’s dropping almost straight down, it’s harder for the DB to make a play on it.
Agree, like early Russel Wilson -- he threw a great deep ball for speedy receivers. High and far, allowing them to track it and use their speed to their advantage.
I commented here on Monday how well I thought Mahomes played despite his stats being rather unimpressive, so I'm gratified to read that Seth shares this opinion.
I think another point worth making is that on a handful of incompletions, Mahomes was throwing to a spot, i.e., to where his receivers were supposed to be. Mahomes possibly could have just placed the ball right on them, but given that the team was playing with a lead, I suspect he chose to be stubborn about his aiming point. I can just imagine the QB using the post-game film session to educate his receivers on how sharper routes will lead to successful receptions that give them room to run.
Maybe I'm imagining things, but I'm hoping these early season misses will help his receivers later on.
Oh I'm sure the receivers are gonna hear about it!
I think the win rate by Bosa as a pass rusher has a lot to do with QBR. Usually, they have it figured out to the point where they're pretty confident he'll run himself out of the plays they have cooked up, late in the game. I don't think anybody's better than the Chiefs at making a play look like something that the defense is primed to defeat, only it's something else.
They'll motion a speed guy across the formation all game long, snapping it before, at, and after the mesh point, and run it up the gut or play-action pass off of it. For 3 quarters. And then in the 4th, it's a shovel pass to the motioning speedster and they pick up the 1st down.
Any time you face a team with edge rushers like San Fran has, your victory - if you earn one - is bound to look ugly. KC saved money on WRs, and they're trying to solve OL with a succession of 2nd-day and 3rd-day draft picks. This strategy entails growing pains for the young tackles and the veteran QB.
They would be much better, too, if they had the same WR group for more than a week at a stretch. Very trying for the QB. They will be stronger in the end for it, I think. But it's been tough slogging for Mahomes, losing Brown, Rice, Schuster, and now they've lost Skyy "Almost Man" Moore!
Yes. Worthy's getting open on the regular. Mahomes needs time to properly connect with him when he does. I think that's what they're up against, now, is setting Mahomes up with time to take those shots. They're really close, but they need a better or maybe more "1st-read" option(s).
When that first read isn't there, and you're playing against the 49ers, it's already an off-schedule play. I'm not sure I want Mahomes following the progression because against San Fran, you can't trust your protections.
Maybe Mahomes should have seen the open guys on the other side of the field. I just think that for long-term health and success, he's playing it just about right, and it looks a lot like happy feet. But is it happy feet when it's justified? It seemed like on a few of his throws, he was tempting fate, with the pass rush so close to him from his blind side.
I'm hoping that Hopkins allows Mahomes to really get the quick passing game cooking. Between that and the running game, they're going to be able to start capitalizing on their speed, because they're going to be able to buy Mahomes more time. Defenses will have to play the short stuff more aggressively, or KC's just going to run them over and dominate time of possession.
I didn't think he played bad either (although I was frustrated by the missed shot to Worthy and the interception 2 plays later). People who are beating him up are basing it on statistics more than game flow. I do really hope that he gets on a statistical heater; those big numbers are a ton of fun!
Watching last night's "The Franchise" episode (go watch if you haven't!) put into perspective how incredible the Chief's record is, all things considered. No team has lost as many pieces, and adjusted well enough to win. No GM is making such cost-effective, impactful decisions. Even if the guys we've brought lately aren't stars - they're either incredibly smart, experienced, or familiar with our culture, or all of the above.
Shanahan lost two receivers and couldn't adjust, period. Give him a week, and he'll get a good scheme. Reid, Spags, and Mahomes? Anything can happen, they'll adjust, and they'll beat you on the fly, week to week, quarter to quarter. Patrick has executed a different offense, personnel-speaking, every week. He knows the pieces are there, though. At this point, idc about stats, age, or anything - DHop is GOING to help, if he stays healthy. Like Mahomes, Nuk's best production in 23-24 comes from 4th quarter. We are going to be peaking come playoffs. We do have a chance.
This game felt like a vintage Mahomes performance. 4 mind-boggling plays. Idk if I'll ever forget Mahomes running Mustapha over. Box score be damned, if you watched that game, you can't tell me he's having a terrible year. You just can't.
Last year, they looked bad and beatable. This year, they look bad and unbeatable. Everything we're seeing is what it takes to be a dynasty.
This episode was so good. I've missed the player highlights with this season's episodes being shorter, but they spend time with Bryan Cook in this one.
Great perspective, Seth. Looking forward to some more shot plays. As you and others have focused on: why at this point do we still have PM not putting more air under the long balls? It seems like this must have been a long term focus by now, but still a weakness (for a guy with very few weaknesses). Thoughts on this? Do you think he is not being coached daily on this, given the desire to reinvigorate the long game? Also, hoping they show up big this week against the hated Raiders, for whom this might as well be their Superbowl.
Seth is so astute and perceptive that it's dicey to go against his thinking. Besides, the fanboy populations here also reacts poorly when one does.
But to me, if we laud Mahomes when his stats are great, we have to boo and hiss when they are poor. And they are truly poor. True, had the Worthy pss gone good it would have changed his stats. But then again, a few weeks ago a Kelce 40 yarder was called back because of a penalty. We can play the "it would have been if only..." game for every player.
The reality is that stats matter when they are this terrible. And they are not bad. They are terrible.
I'd argue the only stats that matter are 6-0... Yes, he's absolutely been mortal this year in the first 3 quarters and it would be nice to see that improve and start blowing some of these lesser teams out, but he literally has the #1 QBR in the 4th quarter (Per ESPN & FTF on Fox)
When its winning time he's the best we / this league has ever seen.
When you're mortal for 3 quarters is that what $50 million a year buys? True, 6-0, now 7-0, is wonderful, but these are scary wins. And yes, they've had injuries at critical skills positions, but that happens to a lot of teams. The Chiefs have done well in the toughest part of their schedule, and DHop can make a big difference, but these have been very very dicey wins. The ravens of game 1 will not be he Ravens of game 18.
His career has been sublime, but its concernign ehn one throws so many interceptions. True, some are tips, which is the O-line's fault, but all those thigns are part of the game. My simple point here is that Seth seems a bit too benign about what has been happening, even if his analysses are amogn the most thoughtful out there.
To be fair, and to only mildly undermine my view, the O line has been much worse than people perceive. Mahomes seems to be running all over the place far too often. I know we praise Veach a lot, he makes well above average draft decisions, but how many years does it take to have a very good LT to protect your mot important player? Even going back to O. Brown, he was good, but hardly someone to protect the crown jewels (and on the right, Jawaan Taylro is the planet's most overpaid RT).
I feel like everyone's data on Jawaan Taylor is a year behind haha last year he struggled, and it was very public because of the way the announcers dunked on him about it. But this year he's been great! Which is a lucky thing because he's not going anywhere with that contract. Haha
If having a good O-line was easy, every team would have one... Keeping Chris Jones, extending Creed and paying Mahomes means Veach can't go out and pick a premier LT off the excellent LT tree so to speak; so he's done what he could do via the draft at a very expensive position. Would you rather not have Worthy and taken a shot at a LT at that spot instead??? (I wouldn't) Morris is coming around and I'd wager by next year Kingsley Suamataia will beat him out and stick because of his talent. Taylor is a good RT and getting better in our system now that refs aren't intentionally trying to ruin him.
AND I really hope they keep/extend Trey and Thuney - Veach has a lot moving pieces to deal with and has done an outstanding job over many years.
I agree with most of your comment. My disagreement is with what many think -- that NFL salaries are normal. Veach is paid something like $7 million a year. That's a lot of money. The salaries other than Mahomes, Taylor and Thuney are about $140 million. That is a lot of money. If they can't find a great LT to protect their most important pllayer, then even Veach, who clearly is excellent, has failed. MAhomes has to scramble way too often, and its not just happy feet. We forget that these guys used to make $100K and have second jobs off season. So the salaries have exploded, but for most, not the performance.
We sometimes think these guys deserve that they are paid. Some aren't. Taylor, for example, is mediocre. And I disagree that it was the refs fault. There are many many profesisons and businesses where if you're being watched, you better get it right. And for $20 million a year, Taylor is risible.
This box score/Passer Rating must be driving the Mahomes truthers crazy. "He's having a bad season!" they huff.
But when the greatest QB we've ever seen is 6-0 and the stats look bad, you'd be wise to question the stats, not the GOAT. Passer rating is a notoriously poor way of capturing QB performance, which is skewed heavily by INTs, but completely ignores both Sacks and QB rushing yards. And with Mahomes having 8 picks in 6 games, it's worth noting that there are three kinds of interceptions - arm punts (i.e. interceptions on deep shot plays, especially on 3rd and long), semi-fumbles (i.e. off the hands of receivers or when the QB is hit while throwing, or when the pass is batted down at the line of scrimmage) and blunders (i.e. balls where the QB just tries to force a pass that isn't there, and yes, Mahomes has had a few).
This year, by my memory, he's had three blunders, all when the Chiefs had a lead and were trying to put the game away. And at least one of the blunders was kind of an arm punt. The other 5 were arm punts and semi-fumbles. The difference between the three is striking, because blunders are what bad QBs do, with no redeeming value. Semi-fumbles are mostly about how good the defense is (or how bad your receivers are), and you just gotta shrug your shoulders and move on. And arm-punts have minimal cost compared to the other two, and are part of the cost of doing business with a QB who works the deep part of the field.
If we abolished tbe Passer Rating in favor modern stats like EPA, it would be clear that this wasn't a bad game for Mahomes. He had one semi-fumble, one arm punt, and otherwise, took great care of the football against a tough defense with a very thin receiving corps. And whatever mistakes he made with his arm, he made up for with his legs. Take your shallow, box score analysis elsewhere, Mahomes Truthers!
Great review as usual, I see I was also a victim of the moment. I thought Mahomes made enough plays to keep the game out of reach and that's Mahomes greatest quality, finding a way in clutch moments.
QQ - During the review process have you noticed Mahomes' passes have had less touch? To my eye for some reason this year he seems to be throwing less touch passes, both in the seems and the flats. I always admired how he maintained his accuracy with his touch passes even on the move.
Also seems unlikely he will end the season underwater on that measure. But, it could be good news if they improve in the red zone by dramatically increasing rushing TDs.
I as well believe he'll turn that ratio around eventually. Long down field throws are risky, but they help the running game and shorter routes open up by keeping people deep or thinking we're going deep.
As Xavier gets better at adjusting to the ball and going up and fighting for the ball at this level of play, fewer interceptions are expected and it's no worse than a 4th down punt if everyone knows it could be intercepted and plays accordingly.
One part of the game vs SF which I didn't even realize while I was watching live but noticed it on the replay was how KC got the ball with over 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter and they slowly drove the ball down the field, capping the drive with a TD, leaving only 3 minutes and change left of the clock. Such a great drive to salt the game away.
What a great way to start a morning. Thx Seth for again digging past the emotions and presenting a fair take. It sure looks like the team is starting to solidify around the adjusted strategy required after losing WR1, WR2 and RB1.
Earlier this week, I told someone I fully expected this game to have very low numbers of happy feet, missed shots, and potential INTs. He looked calm, the most comfortable in the pocket he's looked all season. Without a couple fluky INTs and barely missing Worthy deep and this is a excellent performance.
A "couple of fluky ints" taken off the board would save anyone, as would a way-off 70 yard pass save anyone.
When you said the pass to Worthy could’ve been a TD with more air under it, I almost jumped up and screamed, “Vindication!” Which would have scared my cats, and nobody wants to deal with that mess.
I’ve noticed Patrick’s deep passes are often thrown on a lower trajectory (example: the long TD to Rice that cleared the CB’s hand by about an inch). With speed guys (especially ones that track the ball well) it’s always better to give the ball extra air- they’ll run under it and, since it’s dropping almost straight down, it’s harder for the DB to make a play on it.
Agree, like early Russel Wilson -- he threw a great deep ball for speedy receivers. High and far, allowing them to track it and use their speed to their advantage.
I commented here on Monday how well I thought Mahomes played despite his stats being rather unimpressive, so I'm gratified to read that Seth shares this opinion.
I think another point worth making is that on a handful of incompletions, Mahomes was throwing to a spot, i.e., to where his receivers were supposed to be. Mahomes possibly could have just placed the ball right on them, but given that the team was playing with a lead, I suspect he chose to be stubborn about his aiming point. I can just imagine the QB using the post-game film session to educate his receivers on how sharper routes will lead to successful receptions that give them room to run.
Maybe I'm imagining things, but I'm hoping these early season misses will help his receivers later on.
Oh I'm sure the receivers are gonna hear about it!
I think the win rate by Bosa as a pass rusher has a lot to do with QBR. Usually, they have it figured out to the point where they're pretty confident he'll run himself out of the plays they have cooked up, late in the game. I don't think anybody's better than the Chiefs at making a play look like something that the defense is primed to defeat, only it's something else.
They'll motion a speed guy across the formation all game long, snapping it before, at, and after the mesh point, and run it up the gut or play-action pass off of it. For 3 quarters. And then in the 4th, it's a shovel pass to the motioning speedster and they pick up the 1st down.
Any time you face a team with edge rushers like San Fran has, your victory - if you earn one - is bound to look ugly. KC saved money on WRs, and they're trying to solve OL with a succession of 2nd-day and 3rd-day draft picks. This strategy entails growing pains for the young tackles and the veteran QB.
They would be much better, too, if they had the same WR group for more than a week at a stretch. Very trying for the QB. They will be stronger in the end for it, I think. But it's been tough slogging for Mahomes, losing Brown, Rice, Schuster, and now they've lost Skyy "Almost Man" Moore!
Yes. Worthy's getting open on the regular. Mahomes needs time to properly connect with him when he does. I think that's what they're up against, now, is setting Mahomes up with time to take those shots. They're really close, but they need a better or maybe more "1st-read" option(s).
When that first read isn't there, and you're playing against the 49ers, it's already an off-schedule play. I'm not sure I want Mahomes following the progression because against San Fran, you can't trust your protections.
Maybe Mahomes should have seen the open guys on the other side of the field. I just think that for long-term health and success, he's playing it just about right, and it looks a lot like happy feet. But is it happy feet when it's justified? It seemed like on a few of his throws, he was tempting fate, with the pass rush so close to him from his blind side.
I'm hoping that Hopkins allows Mahomes to really get the quick passing game cooking. Between that and the running game, they're going to be able to start capitalizing on their speed, because they're going to be able to buy Mahomes more time. Defenses will have to play the short stuff more aggressively, or KC's just going to run them over and dominate time of possession.
I didn't think he played bad either (although I was frustrated by the missed shot to Worthy and the interception 2 plays later). People who are beating him up are basing it on statistics more than game flow. I do really hope that he gets on a statistical heater; those big numbers are a ton of fun!
Watching last night's "The Franchise" episode (go watch if you haven't!) put into perspective how incredible the Chief's record is, all things considered. No team has lost as many pieces, and adjusted well enough to win. No GM is making such cost-effective, impactful decisions. Even if the guys we've brought lately aren't stars - they're either incredibly smart, experienced, or familiar with our culture, or all of the above.
Shanahan lost two receivers and couldn't adjust, period. Give him a week, and he'll get a good scheme. Reid, Spags, and Mahomes? Anything can happen, they'll adjust, and they'll beat you on the fly, week to week, quarter to quarter. Patrick has executed a different offense, personnel-speaking, every week. He knows the pieces are there, though. At this point, idc about stats, age, or anything - DHop is GOING to help, if he stays healthy. Like Mahomes, Nuk's best production in 23-24 comes from 4th quarter. We are going to be peaking come playoffs. We do have a chance.
This game felt like a vintage Mahomes performance. 4 mind-boggling plays. Idk if I'll ever forget Mahomes running Mustapha over. Box score be damned, if you watched that game, you can't tell me he's having a terrible year. You just can't.
Last year, they looked bad and beatable. This year, they look bad and unbeatable. Everything we're seeing is what it takes to be a dynasty.
Well said. And thanks for the Franchise reminder.
This episode was so good. I've missed the player highlights with this season's episodes being shorter, but they spend time with Bryan Cook in this one.
Great perspective, Seth. Looking forward to some more shot plays. As you and others have focused on: why at this point do we still have PM not putting more air under the long balls? It seems like this must have been a long term focus by now, but still a weakness (for a guy with very few weaknesses). Thoughts on this? Do you think he is not being coached daily on this, given the desire to reinvigorate the long game? Also, hoping they show up big this week against the hated Raiders, for whom this might as well be their Superbowl.
I completely agree they need to take more deep shots with Worthy. That will open up the field so much.
Also, can you do a deep dive on Justin Reid?
Seth is so astute and perceptive that it's dicey to go against his thinking. Besides, the fanboy populations here also reacts poorly when one does.
But to me, if we laud Mahomes when his stats are great, we have to boo and hiss when they are poor. And they are truly poor. True, had the Worthy pss gone good it would have changed his stats. But then again, a few weeks ago a Kelce 40 yarder was called back because of a penalty. We can play the "it would have been if only..." game for every player.
The reality is that stats matter when they are this terrible. And they are not bad. They are terrible.
I'd argue the only stats that matter are 6-0... Yes, he's absolutely been mortal this year in the first 3 quarters and it would be nice to see that improve and start blowing some of these lesser teams out, but he literally has the #1 QBR in the 4th quarter (Per ESPN & FTF on Fox)
When its winning time he's the best we / this league has ever seen.
When you're mortal for 3 quarters is that what $50 million a year buys? True, 6-0, now 7-0, is wonderful, but these are scary wins. And yes, they've had injuries at critical skills positions, but that happens to a lot of teams. The Chiefs have done well in the toughest part of their schedule, and DHop can make a big difference, but these have been very very dicey wins. The ravens of game 1 will not be he Ravens of game 18.
And if you remove all the "only Mahomes" plays over his career he regresses to the mean.
His career has been sublime, but its concernign ehn one throws so many interceptions. True, some are tips, which is the O-line's fault, but all those thigns are part of the game. My simple point here is that Seth seems a bit too benign about what has been happening, even if his analysses are amogn the most thoughtful out there.
To be fair, and to only mildly undermine my view, the O line has been much worse than people perceive. Mahomes seems to be running all over the place far too often. I know we praise Veach a lot, he makes well above average draft decisions, but how many years does it take to have a very good LT to protect your mot important player? Even going back to O. Brown, he was good, but hardly someone to protect the crown jewels (and on the right, Jawaan Taylro is the planet's most overpaid RT).
I feel like everyone's data on Jawaan Taylor is a year behind haha last year he struggled, and it was very public because of the way the announcers dunked on him about it. But this year he's been great! Which is a lucky thing because he's not going anywhere with that contract. Haha
If having a good O-line was easy, every team would have one... Keeping Chris Jones, extending Creed and paying Mahomes means Veach can't go out and pick a premier LT off the excellent LT tree so to speak; so he's done what he could do via the draft at a very expensive position. Would you rather not have Worthy and taken a shot at a LT at that spot instead??? (I wouldn't) Morris is coming around and I'd wager by next year Kingsley Suamataia will beat him out and stick because of his talent. Taylor is a good RT and getting better in our system now that refs aren't intentionally trying to ruin him.
AND I really hope they keep/extend Trey and Thuney - Veach has a lot moving pieces to deal with and has done an outstanding job over many years.
I agree with most of your comment. My disagreement is with what many think -- that NFL salaries are normal. Veach is paid something like $7 million a year. That's a lot of money. The salaries other than Mahomes, Taylor and Thuney are about $140 million. That is a lot of money. If they can't find a great LT to protect their most important pllayer, then even Veach, who clearly is excellent, has failed. MAhomes has to scramble way too often, and its not just happy feet. We forget that these guys used to make $100K and have second jobs off season. So the salaries have exploded, but for most, not the performance.
We sometimes think these guys deserve that they are paid. Some aren't. Taylor, for example, is mediocre. And I disagree that it was the refs fault. There are many many profesisons and businesses where if you're being watched, you better get it right. And for $20 million a year, Taylor is risible.
This box score/Passer Rating must be driving the Mahomes truthers crazy. "He's having a bad season!" they huff.
But when the greatest QB we've ever seen is 6-0 and the stats look bad, you'd be wise to question the stats, not the GOAT. Passer rating is a notoriously poor way of capturing QB performance, which is skewed heavily by INTs, but completely ignores both Sacks and QB rushing yards. And with Mahomes having 8 picks in 6 games, it's worth noting that there are three kinds of interceptions - arm punts (i.e. interceptions on deep shot plays, especially on 3rd and long), semi-fumbles (i.e. off the hands of receivers or when the QB is hit while throwing, or when the pass is batted down at the line of scrimmage) and blunders (i.e. balls where the QB just tries to force a pass that isn't there, and yes, Mahomes has had a few).
This year, by my memory, he's had three blunders, all when the Chiefs had a lead and were trying to put the game away. And at least one of the blunders was kind of an arm punt. The other 5 were arm punts and semi-fumbles. The difference between the three is striking, because blunders are what bad QBs do, with no redeeming value. Semi-fumbles are mostly about how good the defense is (or how bad your receivers are), and you just gotta shrug your shoulders and move on. And arm-punts have minimal cost compared to the other two, and are part of the cost of doing business with a QB who works the deep part of the field.
If we abolished tbe Passer Rating in favor modern stats like EPA, it would be clear that this wasn't a bad game for Mahomes. He had one semi-fumble, one arm punt, and otherwise, took great care of the football against a tough defense with a very thin receiving corps. And whatever mistakes he made with his arm, he made up for with his legs. Take your shallow, box score analysis elsewhere, Mahomes Truthers!
His QBR rating (which takes far more into consideration) was a very good 80 for this game. You are vindicated!
👍🤩
To be fair one should also consider near INTs, where the defender dropped the pass. Going from memory there have been fewer of those this year.
Great review as usual, I see I was also a victim of the moment. I thought Mahomes made enough plays to keep the game out of reach and that's Mahomes greatest quality, finding a way in clutch moments.
QQ - During the review process have you noticed Mahomes' passes have had less touch? To my eye for some reason this year he seems to be throwing less touch passes, both in the seems and the flats. I always admired how he maintained his accuracy with his touch passes even on the move.
The elephant in the room is that no QB has ever won a Super Bowl while throwing more interceptions than touchdowns in the regular season.
Ben Roethlisberger did win one while throwing 17 regular season touchdowns and 15 interceptions.
That said, Mahomes doing thing's never done before is common.
Also seems unlikely he will end the season underwater on that measure. But, it could be good news if they improve in the red zone by dramatically increasing rushing TDs.
I as well believe he'll turn that ratio around eventually. Long down field throws are risky, but they help the running game and shorter routes open up by keeping people deep or thinking we're going deep.
As Xavier gets better at adjusting to the ball and going up and fighting for the ball at this level of play, fewer interceptions are expected and it's no worse than a 4th down punt if everyone knows it could be intercepted and plays accordingly.
Fewer QB pressures would help as well.
One part of the game vs SF which I didn't even realize while I was watching live but noticed it on the replay was how KC got the ball with over 9 minutes left in the 4th quarter and they slowly drove the ball down the field, capping the drive with a TD, leaving only 3 minutes and change left of the clock. Such a great drive to salt the game away.
Such a statement drive.
I haven't re-watched the game, my memory was we ran it most of the time and seemed like we just imposed our will and iced it - is that accurate?
That’s sure what happened today! 😉
What a great way to start a morning. Thx Seth for again digging past the emotions and presenting a fair take. It sure looks like the team is starting to solidify around the adjusted strategy required after losing WR1, WR2 and RB1.