Tyreek is almost a unicorn. Almost... he was not as dependable this year as a man commanding the contract of which you've spoken. I think it is a reasonable consideration.
I'll offer one consideration - the lack of a badass #2 wideout may have made a real impact on Hill's season this year - given that when Watkins was on the field the D could not as easily just focus on TK and TH. Absent that additional threat, the focus on TK and TH could be amplified and then challenge PM to find #3 in the mix. PM's reluctance to target Pringle and Hardman in man coverage in those situations did not go unnoticed by opposing coaches ...
I'm in! In addition I would like to see our coach brutalize defenses by using his massive offensive line as a weapon and run the ball down the throats of our opponents. I would also like to see more true play action and a very limited number of RPO. Let's get another weapon and then use ALL of them...
I have been of the mind that Patrick sorely needs another pro bowl receiver to pair with T ‘n T, so trading Tyreek makes me shudder. One step forward, 1 1/2 back? I am more open to dealing Stone Cold Jones as part of a deep dive into remaking the D-line.
Also thinking one first rounder may be best compensation offered for Tyreek.
Having said all of the above, if Brett assesses that we cannot accommodate Tyreek’s expected salary demands, we may have to take what we can get in the optimal time frame.
I agree with you about Tyreek and about a better #2 WR. I’ve thought about the coaching staff using Hardman for some of Tyreek’s role and switching Tyreek’s role some (even using him as our Renfro). I’ve never designed an NFL offense, but I think our coaches are locked in to what we do rather than what we can do.
I’m really ready to let Stone Cold become a high draft pick.
Yes, about the coaches. We know Andy isn’t going anywhere. Let’s get some new blood in to mix with the gene pool. Player-wise, there is much to love about Chris but Sack Nation needs a Declaration of Independence. A revolution of sorts.
As little as the defense was at fault for that loss, the lack of dominance by the front four against THAT offensive line was maddening. Chris was dominant until the Broncos game, but seemed to go into hiding after that; if he sacks Burrow once, we are likely in the SB. It's not his fault with everything else that went wrong, but MAKE. A. PLAY.
I've seen a lot of people with this take on Jones vs CIN. What I saw was other than Ingram, no one else at all causing pressure all day. While he's wrestling with Burrow, no one else gets anywhere close. And there were multiple times he messed with the pocket and no one else took advantage. It was like watching the start of the season all over again. And people blame Jones, which IMO is in error.
I agree with you and said so, but Chris has to make a sack when his hands are on the quarterback. It is part of my frustration with the game. More stars can shine when Mahomes isn't. My biggest frustration is still the decision to stop running the ball in the second half.
From what I've heard of Joe Cullen, he sounds like the sort of edgy hell-raiser the defensive line needs. Matt House was fantastic, but LB coaches are far more interchangeable than DL.
Offensively, while I mentioned Joe Brady above, my real hope was the Cardinals would fire Kliff Kingsbury late enough that he wouldn't land an NFL OC spot. Not that KK doesn't have his own issues, but he's the sort of thinker we need to shake up the brain trust, if only for a year.
However it's happened, the mind-meld between Andy and Mahomes seems broken, and it's at least partially schematic. If Andy is serious about a 10+ year run with Mahomes, maybe this is the year Clark nudges him to re-think his exclusive reliance on internal promotions on offense. Even if that just means a Nagy return.
Happy to hear about Cullen. It seems that Andy would be a coach-magnet given his reputation and expertise. No salary cap for staff so Clark can fund who they want. Trust they will land some good assistants.
As for players, there are many that look appealing and they all wish to be paid. As scary as the potential salary demands can be, Brett and staff seem to work their own brand of annual cap magic. I wish we could have held onto Ogbah two years ago. Ahh, the off-season! I swear I enjoy it more than the one with real W’s and L’s!
Hill contract talks will be fascinating. Drew Rosenhaus, Hill's agent, is very comfortable with the cocoon built around Tyreek in Chiefs Kingdom, and likely has limited appetite for the timesuck and risk of disturbing. How much of a discount that buys, if any, remains to be seen. Rosenhaus's rep in baseball is that he'll do anything for the last dollar.
Until the 2nd half of the season, I didn't buy the 3rd receiver argument. However, the story that I'd told myself about Andy's evolution beyond his Philly-era aversion to the run game mostly crumbled, so I've switched sides of that argument. Our 3rd option after Hill and Kelce needs to be 6'1 or taller, no matter the 40 time.
Of course I was also hoping (dreaming?!) Andy would bring in Joe Brady to reimagine how to use Hill, Kelce, and Hardman, but it's not happening. Schematic trends come and go, and it's time for Veach to admit Andy has temporarily lost his schematic edge and get back to a more realistic view of roster matchups.
Looking holistically at the offense, I'm not sure Tyreek is as valuable to the Chiefs (or the league) as he was a couple of years ago, but I'd see a 2-yr bridge deal as more likely than a trade this offseason. He is such a unique player that it's difficult to project his decline curve, and combined with his off-field a match could be tough.... esp with the Rams out of first-rounders.
We agree about the necessity of a 3rd receiver; I also thought it was an unnecessary luxury. It seems like a power running scheme, real play action passes and fewer option routes/RPO would be taking advantage of our offensive line as a weapon. We can take advantage of 2 deep safeties and lighter boxes and make them pay when they come up to stop the run. I would like to see Andy give Patrick more discretion on audibles. I think Hardman could be used in a lot of the roles for Tyreek and Tyreek can take more routes like Renfro. I am just throwing out ideas because I have seen the offense regress every year since 2018. I hope EB gets a job because he deserves one, but if that happens, please bring in eyes that are not only familiar with the scheme.
My popcorn is ready. On one hand, Hill can tell himself the story that he gave the Chiefs a discount last time, and has earned the right to go to the mat (create a disruption) to secure the last dollar. Conversely, I've had a sense he's finally turning the corner with his community standing, such that he is less triggering to a certain segment for seize any opportunity to throw stones. He'll never get big money national brand endorsements like Kelce or Michael Thomas, but he's building a nice life for his family in KC and is on course to retire with >$100MM career earnings. Choices!!!
Eh... one thing to remember is that signing Tyreek for "five or six more years" doesn't mean actually tying the team to him for that long by necessity. Even if it's a 5 year deal, those last 2 years will be essentially fake money and easy to get out of if he's no longer performing.
The problem with trading Hill is that it's virtually impossible to get a good net return there. The odds of any player you take with draft picks being even 80% of what he is is miniscule, and you'd need both of them to be at least that in order for the cap savings to make up the difference IMO.
I think people often look at the cap as a "get great players for huge money, get good players for medium money," but the problem is it often doesn't work like that. Generally speaking, you have to overpay for good free agents. And so for me, if you're going to cough up top notch money regardless you may as well spend it on a top notch player.
I have no idea where negotiations are with Hill, but those are just things to consider.
Also, Mahomes' deal won't cost them that much vs the cap. Those guarantee mechanisms, baby!
Counter: Aside from the AFC South, post-Brady, the NFC South is the 2nd most winnable division. They nearly made the playoffs this season.
The Saints have stable front office leadership that's showed great skill in navigating the salary cap. Everyone knew there'd be a catch-up year at some point post-Brees, and they'll presumably have realistic expectations of a new coach. Ownership is supportive and doesn't meddle in football decisions.
You don't have a long-term certainty at QB, but neither does anyone else in your division. I personally like Ian Book a lot if the plan is to take the salary cap medicine in one dose. If you can make peace with Michael Thomas, life gets much easier, otherwise he's a valuable trade chip.
Seems the biggest question is whether they'll offer a 5 or 6-year contract, like Kyle Shanahan got when he took over a mess in San Fran (better cap / worse roster). While EB can certainly argue he deserves the 6th year, my hope is his agent - who has not always served him well - won't overreach if the fit is there.
The Saints are my 2nd team (albeit distant), and this has been debated a bit amongst my family in Louisiana the past couple of weeks, so I may have an unfair edge LOL.
I actually thought cross-division Atlanta was the spot for EB last year, and it was when they instead hired the spawn of Fedex that the light went on for me that EB might actually never get there. The people of NOLA would quickly grow to love him, and my fingers are crossed this somehow happens for both sides. Everyone there expects Dennis Allen along with the existing offensive staff, at least for another year.
With regards to Reid, he's altered his offense a great deal over the years. Now, whether that's something as fundamental as "be willing to play a little smashmouth" is something that remains to be seen. But I expect some adjustments to account for how defenses are playing Mahomes.
Hey, what a cool idea! Let me know how it pans out, I hope you guys all get a chance to connect a little more!
I agree that I've been thrilled with the comments here and the genuinely good dialogue, even when people disagree. It's been a breath of fresh air compared to Twitter/etc.
I think, and I could be wrong here, that a quote from Dwight Schrute is the answer... "there's not always a lesson. Sometimes you just fail."
I think Mahomes got in his own head a bit. Maybe that play to close the half did it, no idea, but he just couldn't shake it off completely. He started to on that final drive, but then those last 2 plays were rough (I think the score had him playing conservatively).
It's at least worth noting that the throw to Hill in OT down the field was a DOT, and had Hill caught it KC has a great chance of winning that game and we'd all be continuing with the "reaper" comments.
I think he was pressing for a while. I wouldn't call it a confidence issue in anyone, just the yips. :(
I agree with getting in his own head. In other words, I believe Mahomes went “on tilt”, in poker terms.
Imagine a great poker player who consistently outperforms others by making tough decisions that bit by bit slide all the chips his way. However, there is so much randomness in poker (and in football, see Kelce/Hill dropping critical passes), that sometimes you get sucked out on and lose a giant pot you should have won. Even the greatest players will start pushing, trying to get back to what they should have had (Mahomes trying to make up for the lost three points at the half by forcing the ball that was tipped early in the third), and they lose more. Then you overcompensate by being too conservative, playing not to lose, and now you’ve lost that edge you had and you’re no longer the “better” player. Poker players can lose their entire bankroll doing this, and the best option is to stop playing and take a break to calm down. Unfortunately for Mahomes (and us), he was in the middle of a fast moving game and couldn’t recover in time.
It also doesn’t help that Mahomes’ coach/mentor Andy Reid is also prone to emotional tilt and he also froze up. Any sane, rational football mind in that moment would have realized you combat those ridiculous three man rushes by either running with McKinnon or even planning some scrambles after the traffic clears out.
I like that poker analogy. And it definitely appeared, with how sped up his process seemed despite the lack of overall pressure, that he was simultaneously pressing AND looking somewhat conservative. I wonder how he would've responded in years past and not after a year in which he's been drilled to take what is there, etc. He might've just started freelancing like crazy like he would have in 2018, which ironically might've been the best thing to do here.
Well said. Every great player in every sport gets stuck in his/her own head at times. Happened to Brady, Tiger, MJ and anyone else ever mentioned in their orbit.
To my eye, the magic of Mahomes' reaching the MVP level so quickly - w/o the flurry of INTs and overthrows we were warned by pundits to expect in his first 1-3 years - was the symbiosis between him and the staff, and how mistakes never seemed to compound. I'm not sure exactly what role was played by whom, but it was special, and it was visible.
What was so disappointing to me in this instance was that there was no obvious adjustment by coaches in the moment to help him out of his head. That mirrored previous instances when the passing game has sputtered this season and the response has been to "mash the pedal" even harder. Maybe it wouldn't have made a difference, but for all he puts into being great 365 days/yr, I just can't help feeling he deserves better from the coaching staff.
I feel from Patrick's words, he puts the responsibility all on his shoulders, the coaches should do things to ease that responsibility and make it easier to just go out and perform.
And just like in the SB last year, they put everything on HIS shoulders. Other people are being paid, especially coaches, to shoulder the challenges. Too much has been left on the plate of a 26 year old. Add the bullying tactics of our offensive line, and 2nd half play calling exceeded terrible. Too many "run" plays are RPOs. Guess who has the pressure place on him? Hint: he's 26 years old...
That disappointment in the staff to help him out when he needed it is shared by me, and also my disappointment in Hill/Kelce (who both dropped tough but catchable passes) to step in and make a huge play when he needed their support.
There's a line from an old Harry Chapin song back in the 70's - a tame and toothless tabbly can't produce a lion's roar. In this case, it felt like the opposite. We have a fire-breathing dragon and we asked him to be careful. It is wild that asking him to play carefully is what makes him feel frantic.
The play with Pringle over the middle is the one that caught me, because that play sure looks designed for the Pringle/Kelce routes to be the first read as the middle defender is put into conflict. For everyone critical of Reid/Bieniemy and the play-calling, this is exactly the kind of play call we wanted. Day 1 install type play with an easy read and an easy throw to get back into rhythm.
In hindsight, of course we can wish they had run the ball more, but I don't think it really stands up to analysis. From 21-3 until 21-24, they ran the ball more often than they passed it on first down. The pick by Hill was on an RPO where Mahomes made a bad read and throw. The two drops came on second (and third) with six yards to go. We probably could have run on second down, but I'd rather give Mahomes two looks on second and six than risk an unsuccessful run and face say third and four with only one shot. All of those situations called for balance and that is what the team did - running just over half the time.
For the first time in his career, Mahomes came up small in a play-off game. It is still shocking to write those words, and it is bitterly disappointing because the bracket had opened up wide for us after surviving Buffalo.
I'm not sure the pick by Hill was an actual RPO, I think it was a screen. BUT, I agree it was a very poor read.
I totally agree with you on the ball being better off with Mahomes on 2nd and 6/etc the vast majority of the time. I think in this particular instance, given the way the defense was playing things combined with the way Mahomes was playing, giving him a mental break and taking what was there (going even beyond "balance") would have been the superior decision, at least for a drive or two.
And I totally agree on the disappointment after things opening up so well for KC!
Mays and Tice on the Athletic's podcast called the Hill interception an RPO, but that was in their postgame pod where they had only seen it live. I have not rewatched yet; this one needed a little more settling for me. But I believe you.
And I think you are exactly right about the nuances of the game and play calling. As much as Mahomes feels automatic, he is an actual person and maybe needed a mental break. My guess is after five years together, Reid and Bieniemy have such utter confidence in Mahomes - I know as a fan, I always expect his next play to be brilliant. He had never seemed to give an inch mentally in five years.
As the Bengals were coming back, I was sitting on the couch (ok, pacing the living room) feeling sorry for their fans. I thought it would be better for them to just lose by 30 the way it looked like it was heading and go into the offseason appreciating a great run than to think they had a shot just to be reaped and have their heart cut out of their chests just when they thought they might be able to do it. Because for that entire 90 minutes, I expected the very next play to be the one where it clicked back into gear and they were going to resume doing terrible things to that secondary.
If I was feeling that, a thousand miles away having never actually met them, how much more were Reid and Bieniemy thinking that, having lived and breathed with this guy for five years? I am sure they have a Henne package of plays that are easer reads and easier throws and just put less on the QB than what they give Mahomes. It probably would have behooved them to call a couple Henne plays in there. But how could they have known it in real time?
Interesting, I trust Nate and Robert completely and so they could be right and I'm wrong! It looked like a screen call to me given the setup, but Nate's forgotten more about offensive design than I'll ever know hahaha. GREAT podcast.
And man, you say it really well in terms of the "what the crap just happened" feeling and how unbelievable it was when things never snapped back into focus.
Even after all the bad that happened in the 2nd half, when KC won the coin toss I genuinely assumed it was over. I can't imagine how much more surprising it was for the coaches!
Great job on this. It just seems like Mahomes had a very bad half at the worst time possible, and nobody could bring him out of it. It happens sometimes. It sucks, but it happens. That's what I think I've come to at this point.
Well done as usual, Seth. I forced myself to go through this as part of moving on! In this case, for me, you confirmed what I saw: PM inexplicably getting shook, and AR not making adjustments to take what was offered and get a chance for a reset. Any small change could have swung this one, which is what makes it so hard to swallow. The only thing I'm uneasy about is PM's mindset - as this is now on every coach's radar. It's a vulnerability that is out there from early season performance and now repeated in the big game. He's got the throws, the moves, the mental game (reading and manipulating the field), but the emotional part came back to bite him, for reasons he only knows. This may be a hard fix because of that fact. Hopefully just a relapse that he'll get past.
Now, I have to jump the gun and look ahead, because ... I can't help myself! A few observations that I'm certain you'll be covering soon:
- The AFC will be much improved - featuring QBs and O's that rival our own
- I'm concerned that the current formula of dominant O with average D may not stand up in the new competitive world we're in. To what degree do we need to reload on O to keep up?
- I believe (as I think you suggest above) that the inability to replace Watkins made a season-long difference for PM and the O, and in Veach's comments, have not heard that as a priority (he's rightly started with D-line, which could and should be a make-over)
- Out of curiosity, I wonder if the O schemes are more complex than necessary, given the weapons we have. I ask because it seems to take a long time to work new players in, and if we infuse some new talent, would like to see things adapt quickly (seems to me that other teams can do this move quickly than we do). We have seen rookie WRs and new additions make immediate impact around the league, but it seems to take a couple of years for KC to get them into the line-up.
That's enough for now - and as always, fact check me on the observations from my lyin' eyes!
The AFC West with its new coaching lineup should also be more competitive, even if ARod doesn't head for the rockies (r at least more stable / lower drama). Our sense of invincibility in the division - and the luxury to not have to be so beholden to division matchups in roster construction - is effectively gone.
I'm more confident in the front office (and ownership) than the coaching staff at this point, and expect we'll see new pass catchers even if we aren't mentioned for every top target. Veach went after JuJu last offseason, which I'd considered impossible amidst the OL re-make. Noah Gray was drafted to play the X role Sammy vacated, and for whatever reason didn't produce. Cutting a 5th rounder isn't common, but it also wouldn't shock me if they didn't get what they hoped for.
In general, I expect much more aggressive bottom-of-roster/PS churn than was feasible due to COVID the past couple of years. And continuation of the 2nd chance strategy with signings like Josh Gordon and Arnette.
I'm talking more about character risk than talent risk when I say 2nd chances. My belief is this roster is already maxed out in terms of the number of guys to whom the Chiefs security department has to devote time daily, ala Dale Carter in his day. I'm all for 2nd chances, and if you can separate the signal from the noise there's an edge to be had that few franchises can grab like the Chiefs. Tyreek and Kelce are in their own way both examples that worked out very well for both parties. Still, Chiefs Kingdom already has another emotional chapter coming up in April (or thereabout) as the book is closed on last year's tragedy, and my hope is that we'll give ourselves a bit of room to breathe rather than piling on new risks or distractions.
I’m hoping you’re correct - I do admire Veach’s aggressiveness and hope we get the essential bump in talent to counter the advancements going on across the division and conference
I think it'll be interesting to see where the division goes. It's worth noting that a lot of Denver's success defensively has been due to Fangio as of recently, so I wouldn't assume they'll continue to be good there. Of course, the hope for them is that they'll finally somehow take advantage of all the weapons on offense, which they'll need at least average QB play to do!
LAC are going to be a tough out, to be sure, and we'll see what the Raiders do.
It's interesting to me re. the mental aspect, because he's bounced back from tough plays and in tough moments a million times before.
I definitely think improving the defense will be the first priority. It's been "OK" with some spurts of a lot worse and some spurts of a lot better, but it sure would be nice to add more talent there and look for consistency.
Mahomes needs to take a page out of other QB's and hold some off the books practices with whomever Veach brings in this offseason. And maybe some behavioral therapy.
On that last play of the first half, I'm still not certain why he didn't roll out and run the touchdown in with all the defense congregated on the left side of the field. I don't buy the "it wasn't the play call" excuse as Mahomes improvises regularly.
I think he was trying to get rid of the ball quickly and avoid running the clock out. If I were a betting man, I don't think he even considered the possibility that Hill would cut inside rather than heading for the SL and either scoring or getting out of bounds.
Mahomes has caught almost all the flak there, but Hill shouldn't have cut back.
I am good with the conclusions but want to make this observation. In the first half, the run game or a pass to a RB out of the backfield was used effectively mixed in to the play calling.
SECOND HALF ADVANTAGE NOT USED Vs 3 man front. The second half, this wasn't true despite the fact that the Chiefs were facing largely a 2 deep secondary and a 3 man front. The run game, which advanced the ball extremely effectively in the first half, should have been a complete focus of the offense until the Bengals made an in-game-flow adjustment.
MISCUE BEFORE THE HALF: I am completely disturbed by the pass call to the flat to Hill just before the half. it should have been a pass to the end-zone or better yet, a run play called. Either it's complete or incomplete. then clock Management would not matter. As it was, the clock expired. This was a stupid play to call. and is one of those things that a critique of Andy Reid in the past(Clock Mgmt) came back to bite us. Or ditto if it was Eric Bieniemy who was calling the plays.
Even if the play-caller decided a run would allow the 5 seconds to expire, the pass would work. Either a TD or incomplete stopping the clock. A Field Goal could then be kicked. As it stands, this was a horrible play that took 3 points off the board if not 6.
A run play would have been do or die. No time outs. I guess I still have more faith in Mahomes than the O line.
But DID Mahomes actually call the play? Or just make a poor decision? He was supposed to hit something quick over the middle and just didn't do it.
I wonder how many times we've seen Tyreek become a decoy to suck two defenders away from the action. Unfortunately, in this case (and others), Mahomes forced it to him anyway.
Thanks for the analysis Seth. I definitely was hoping they would run the ball more in the second half. They were having success and it was obvious Mahomes was affected by the looks he was given. I know scrambling and "school-yard" type plays are a part of his game, but, it seems to me that some of his poorer performances involve his "happy feet." He creates a lot of pressure by moving out of clean pockets. I have always thought that Rodgers was a master of avoiding pressure with more subtle moves forward/backward within the pocket. I am not sure if Mahomes just does not trust the line, but, I bet it would be easier for them to block if he didn't bail on the pressure so quickly.
Rodgers has gone back and forth with similar issues throughout his career. It's a matter of harnessing the good but not overdoing it (ie only going when necessary). I agree, whenever he has a performance that is subpar for him it often involves happy feet.
Thanks Seth. We will likely never know why Patrick got so jittery in the 2nd half. Trying too hard not to lose rather than playing to win? I don't know. What I do know is that when he began his 'sped up processing' it was readily apparent, to even the most casual fan. AR/EB should have immediately changed up the play calling to take some pressure off him and calm him down. We could have run them out of those light boxes and made the later throws much easier. It would have taken so little to have won that game after the start that they had. Fantastic opportunity lost.
My biggest fear is that these problems, rare though they are, won't get fixed unless those with the power to correct them do an honest assessment of the issues with their eyes wide open and their egos checked at the door.
AR has long taken the hit as a poor game manager, starting w clock management - my concern is that he (and EB) don't seem to be in the moment when in-game adjustments need to be made. It may be that they are just too committed to their game-plans. As Seth reminds us, the game is really about match-ups and those who are most nimble with adjusting where required during games are more likely to win in close games.
I think it is really hard to have the right play call and position groups on the field AND manage the game. For instance, the silly timeout AR took in the first half. That cost us a chance to open the playbook at the 1 yard line with :09 left in the half. For all of the (correct) points about Patrick getting sped up, apparently AR/EB did too. The running lanes were easily available AND we were protecting a lead. This is the classic Andy Reid game for which he has been criticized since Philly. Eagles fans weren't wrong; hopefully, Andy and Clark will address this.
Someone wrote me an email asking if Reid is more of a brief-writing attorney rather than a trial lawyer, and it's a good comparison. He's not TERRIBLE in the moment, but is slower to react than the best are in part because of his trust in his prep (I believe).
It's tough to know where that balance lies in trusting the process/prep (when you're one of the best to ever do it in that aspect) and knowing when to pivot. I think he should lean towards pivoting a little faster.
Do you think that a different OC may help him with that slower reaction or is he so in charge of that aspect, that another OC may not make a difference?
I think EB has done a nice job overall, and the reality is it's always going to be Reid's offense. I think EB can help push things though, as he's a voice in the room that is valued.
It was strange to see given how often he's come through in similar (or even much worse) situations.
And yes, an honest assessment as to how to help him in those moments (perhaps protecting leads isn't as much his forte as gaining them or coming from behind) needs to be done!
Great job as always Seth. You mentioned something very briefly in the Times Ours podcast which I have been thinking about as well - maybe it’s time to stop doing so many RPOs. Just seems like these didn’t work as well this year, particularly when we ran the ball. I imagine it’s a huge undertaking in researching the success rate for the full season, but I would be curious. Maybe it’s better for our o-line when they know they are running?
I think the RPOs need to be mostly scrapped. 1) They do not allow linemen to go downfield and crush the second level in case a handoff is made. 2) Defenses are defending them very well. 3) It is too tempting to Patrick to pass when he needs to hand off (that is on him, but please know his mentality).
I have come to think the RPO is where the innovation we are used to is being spent. Please, let's move on from them...
I think they should be a feature of the offense, but not a predominant methodology. That said, they should continue to utilize play action consistently given the advantage it brings.
Generally speaking, OL treat RPO's like a run play (that's how you can ID them usually, watch the line!). I don't have a good grasp on the success rate, but I do think that being bound to the limited route and run concepts that go through them may be a bit of a hindrance when using them too frequently.
Thanks, Seth for another season of wonderful breakdowns of the Chiefs! I think myself and all Chiefs fans had assumed that Mahomes was infallible and would never have a bad game or even half and we are now astonished to learn that he is indeed human. However, I place much more blame on Reid/ Bieniemy for the play calling in the 2nd half than I do on Mahomes bad play. I love throwing the ball but when a defense is completely daring you to run the ball and you have a lead and using clock is beneficial..... then run it down their throat! It's really hard to throw the ball into 8 man coverage in the NFL. I really thought the Chiefs had moved past all the early season offensive struggles with shell coverage and had learned to take what the defense gives them. I am definitely going to gift a subscription of Chief in the North Newsletter to Andy Reid and also Bieinemy... Hopefully they will read it!!!!! Thanks Seth- I can't wait for the NFL draft to start dreaming about next season!
Thanks so much for the kind words! I've been absolutely thrilled to keep this site going and can't thank you enough for your support.
I agree that we never saw that coming from Mahomes, and also that at a certain point the coaching staff needs to try to adjust to what they're seeing (which is not only just the way CIN is playing, but the way Mahomes is having some struggles). Give him a break on at least one drive or so and at least see if you can grind out a few first downs while he mentally resets.
Tyreek is almost a unicorn. Almost... he was not as dependable this year as a man commanding the contract of which you've spoken. I think it is a reasonable consideration.
I'll offer one consideration - the lack of a badass #2 wideout may have made a real impact on Hill's season this year - given that when Watkins was on the field the D could not as easily just focus on TK and TH. Absent that additional threat, the focus on TK and TH could be amplified and then challenge PM to find #3 in the mix. PM's reluctance to target Pringle and Hardman in man coverage in those situations did not go unnoticed by opposing coaches ...
I'm in! In addition I would like to see our coach brutalize defenses by using his massive offensive line as a weapon and run the ball down the throats of our opponents. I would also like to see more true play action and a very limited number of RPO. Let's get another weapon and then use ALL of them...
I have been of the mind that Patrick sorely needs another pro bowl receiver to pair with T ‘n T, so trading Tyreek makes me shudder. One step forward, 1 1/2 back? I am more open to dealing Stone Cold Jones as part of a deep dive into remaking the D-line.
Also thinking one first rounder may be best compensation offered for Tyreek.
Having said all of the above, if Brett assesses that we cannot accommodate Tyreek’s expected salary demands, we may have to take what we can get in the optimal time frame.
I agree with you about Tyreek and about a better #2 WR. I’ve thought about the coaching staff using Hardman for some of Tyreek’s role and switching Tyreek’s role some (even using him as our Renfro). I’ve never designed an NFL offense, but I think our coaches are locked in to what we do rather than what we can do.
I’m really ready to let Stone Cold become a high draft pick.
Yes, about the coaches. We know Andy isn’t going anywhere. Let’s get some new blood in to mix with the gene pool. Player-wise, there is much to love about Chris but Sack Nation needs a Declaration of Independence. A revolution of sorts.
As little as the defense was at fault for that loss, the lack of dominance by the front four against THAT offensive line was maddening. Chris was dominant until the Broncos game, but seemed to go into hiding after that; if he sacks Burrow once, we are likely in the SB. It's not his fault with everything else that went wrong, but MAKE. A. PLAY.
👍🤜🤛😩
I've seen a lot of people with this take on Jones vs CIN. What I saw was other than Ingram, no one else at all causing pressure all day. While he's wrestling with Burrow, no one else gets anywhere close. And there were multiple times he messed with the pocket and no one else took advantage. It was like watching the start of the season all over again. And people blame Jones, which IMO is in error.
I agree with you and said so, but Chris has to make a sack when his hands are on the quarterback. It is part of my frustration with the game. More stars can shine when Mahomes isn't. My biggest frustration is still the decision to stop running the ball in the second half.
From what I've heard of Joe Cullen, he sounds like the sort of edgy hell-raiser the defensive line needs. Matt House was fantastic, but LB coaches are far more interchangeable than DL.
Offensively, while I mentioned Joe Brady above, my real hope was the Cardinals would fire Kliff Kingsbury late enough that he wouldn't land an NFL OC spot. Not that KK doesn't have his own issues, but he's the sort of thinker we need to shake up the brain trust, if only for a year.
However it's happened, the mind-meld between Andy and Mahomes seems broken, and it's at least partially schematic. If Andy is serious about a 10+ year run with Mahomes, maybe this is the year Clark nudges him to re-think his exclusive reliance on internal promotions on offense. Even if that just means a Nagy return.
Happy to hear about Cullen. It seems that Andy would be a coach-magnet given his reputation and expertise. No salary cap for staff so Clark can fund who they want. Trust they will land some good assistants.
As for players, there are many that look appealing and they all wish to be paid. As scary as the potential salary demands can be, Brett and staff seem to work their own brand of annual cap magic. I wish we could have held onto Ogbah two years ago. Ahh, the off-season! I swear I enjoy it more than the one with real W’s and L’s!
Sack Nation needs the other "half" of what was supposed to be an elite duo to be at least above average, and Clark hasn't been that unfortunately.
Hill contract talks will be fascinating. Drew Rosenhaus, Hill's agent, is very comfortable with the cocoon built around Tyreek in Chiefs Kingdom, and likely has limited appetite for the timesuck and risk of disturbing. How much of a discount that buys, if any, remains to be seen. Rosenhaus's rep in baseball is that he'll do anything for the last dollar.
Until the 2nd half of the season, I didn't buy the 3rd receiver argument. However, the story that I'd told myself about Andy's evolution beyond his Philly-era aversion to the run game mostly crumbled, so I've switched sides of that argument. Our 3rd option after Hill and Kelce needs to be 6'1 or taller, no matter the 40 time.
Of course I was also hoping (dreaming?!) Andy would bring in Joe Brady to reimagine how to use Hill, Kelce, and Hardman, but it's not happening. Schematic trends come and go, and it's time for Veach to admit Andy has temporarily lost his schematic edge and get back to a more realistic view of roster matchups.
Looking holistically at the offense, I'm not sure Tyreek is as valuable to the Chiefs (or the league) as he was a couple of years ago, but I'd see a 2-yr bridge deal as more likely than a trade this offseason. He is such a unique player that it's difficult to project his decline curve, and combined with his off-field a match could be tough.... esp with the Rams out of first-rounders.
We agree about the necessity of a 3rd receiver; I also thought it was an unnecessary luxury. It seems like a power running scheme, real play action passes and fewer option routes/RPO would be taking advantage of our offensive line as a weapon. We can take advantage of 2 deep safeties and lighter boxes and make them pay when they come up to stop the run. I would like to see Andy give Patrick more discretion on audibles. I think Hardman could be used in a lot of the roles for Tyreek and Tyreek can take more routes like Renfro. I am just throwing out ideas because I have seen the offense regress every year since 2018. I hope EB gets a job because he deserves one, but if that happens, please bring in eyes that are not only familiar with the scheme.
Yeah, Drew R ain't gonna take a discount unless Hill forces him to, haha.
My popcorn is ready. On one hand, Hill can tell himself the story that he gave the Chiefs a discount last time, and has earned the right to go to the mat (create a disruption) to secure the last dollar. Conversely, I've had a sense he's finally turning the corner with his community standing, such that he is less triggering to a certain segment for seize any opportunity to throw stones. He'll never get big money national brand endorsements like Kelce or Michael Thomas, but he's building a nice life for his family in KC and is on course to retire with >$100MM career earnings. Choices!!!
Eh... one thing to remember is that signing Tyreek for "five or six more years" doesn't mean actually tying the team to him for that long by necessity. Even if it's a 5 year deal, those last 2 years will be essentially fake money and easy to get out of if he's no longer performing.
The problem with trading Hill is that it's virtually impossible to get a good net return there. The odds of any player you take with draft picks being even 80% of what he is is miniscule, and you'd need both of them to be at least that in order for the cap savings to make up the difference IMO.
I think people often look at the cap as a "get great players for huge money, get good players for medium money," but the problem is it often doesn't work like that. Generally speaking, you have to overpay for good free agents. And so for me, if you're going to cough up top notch money regardless you may as well spend it on a top notch player.
I have no idea where negotiations are with Hill, but those are just things to consider.
Also, Mahomes' deal won't cost them that much vs the cap. Those guarantee mechanisms, baby!
Counter: Aside from the AFC South, post-Brady, the NFC South is the 2nd most winnable division. They nearly made the playoffs this season.
The Saints have stable front office leadership that's showed great skill in navigating the salary cap. Everyone knew there'd be a catch-up year at some point post-Brees, and they'll presumably have realistic expectations of a new coach. Ownership is supportive and doesn't meddle in football decisions.
You don't have a long-term certainty at QB, but neither does anyone else in your division. I personally like Ian Book a lot if the plan is to take the salary cap medicine in one dose. If you can make peace with Michael Thomas, life gets much easier, otherwise he's a valuable trade chip.
Seems the biggest question is whether they'll offer a 5 or 6-year contract, like Kyle Shanahan got when he took over a mess in San Fran (better cap / worse roster). While EB can certainly argue he deserves the 6th year, my hope is his agent - who has not always served him well - won't overreach if the fit is there.
The Saints are my 2nd team (albeit distant), and this has been debated a bit amongst my family in Louisiana the past couple of weeks, so I may have an unfair edge LOL.
I actually thought cross-division Atlanta was the spot for EB last year, and it was when they instead hired the spawn of Fedex that the light went on for me that EB might actually never get there. The people of NOLA would quickly grow to love him, and my fingers are crossed this somehow happens for both sides. Everyone there expects Dennis Allen along with the existing offensive staff, at least for another year.
Yeah, I think there might've been a blessing in disguise for him there, them going another direction. Payton left them high and dry.
Amen to that!
I appreciate you reading!
With regards to Reid, he's altered his offense a great deal over the years. Now, whether that's something as fundamental as "be willing to play a little smashmouth" is something that remains to be seen. But I expect some adjustments to account for how defenses are playing Mahomes.
Yes - the subscribers/comments here are intelligent, articulate compared to almost all other sites and I sincerely hope it stays that way:)
Hey, what a cool idea! Let me know how it pans out, I hope you guys all get a chance to connect a little more!
I agree that I've been thrilled with the comments here and the genuinely good dialogue, even when people disagree. It's been a breath of fresh air compared to Twitter/etc.
I think, and I could be wrong here, that a quote from Dwight Schrute is the answer... "there's not always a lesson. Sometimes you just fail."
I think Mahomes got in his own head a bit. Maybe that play to close the half did it, no idea, but he just couldn't shake it off completely. He started to on that final drive, but then those last 2 plays were rough (I think the score had him playing conservatively).
It's at least worth noting that the throw to Hill in OT down the field was a DOT, and had Hill caught it KC has a great chance of winning that game and we'd all be continuing with the "reaper" comments.
I think he was pressing for a while. I wouldn't call it a confidence issue in anyone, just the yips. :(
Appreciate you as ever!
Maybe he got the "twisties" like they get in gymnastics
We’ll said
Thanks Susan!
I agree with getting in his own head. In other words, I believe Mahomes went “on tilt”, in poker terms.
Imagine a great poker player who consistently outperforms others by making tough decisions that bit by bit slide all the chips his way. However, there is so much randomness in poker (and in football, see Kelce/Hill dropping critical passes), that sometimes you get sucked out on and lose a giant pot you should have won. Even the greatest players will start pushing, trying to get back to what they should have had (Mahomes trying to make up for the lost three points at the half by forcing the ball that was tipped early in the third), and they lose more. Then you overcompensate by being too conservative, playing not to lose, and now you’ve lost that edge you had and you’re no longer the “better” player. Poker players can lose their entire bankroll doing this, and the best option is to stop playing and take a break to calm down. Unfortunately for Mahomes (and us), he was in the middle of a fast moving game and couldn’t recover in time.
It also doesn’t help that Mahomes’ coach/mentor Andy Reid is also prone to emotional tilt and he also froze up. Any sane, rational football mind in that moment would have realized you combat those ridiculous three man rushes by either running with McKinnon or even planning some scrambles after the traffic clears out.
I like that poker analogy. And it definitely appeared, with how sped up his process seemed despite the lack of overall pressure, that he was simultaneously pressing AND looking somewhat conservative. I wonder how he would've responded in years past and not after a year in which he's been drilled to take what is there, etc. He might've just started freelancing like crazy like he would have in 2018, which ironically might've been the best thing to do here.
Well said. Every great player in every sport gets stuck in his/her own head at times. Happened to Brady, Tiger, MJ and anyone else ever mentioned in their orbit.
To my eye, the magic of Mahomes' reaching the MVP level so quickly - w/o the flurry of INTs and overthrows we were warned by pundits to expect in his first 1-3 years - was the symbiosis between him and the staff, and how mistakes never seemed to compound. I'm not sure exactly what role was played by whom, but it was special, and it was visible.
What was so disappointing to me in this instance was that there was no obvious adjustment by coaches in the moment to help him out of his head. That mirrored previous instances when the passing game has sputtered this season and the response has been to "mash the pedal" even harder. Maybe it wouldn't have made a difference, but for all he puts into being great 365 days/yr, I just can't help feeling he deserves better from the coaching staff.
I feel from Patrick's words, he puts the responsibility all on his shoulders, the coaches should do things to ease that responsibility and make it easier to just go out and perform.
And just like in the SB last year, they put everything on HIS shoulders. Other people are being paid, especially coaches, to shoulder the challenges. Too much has been left on the plate of a 26 year old. Add the bullying tactics of our offensive line, and 2nd half play calling exceeded terrible. Too many "run" plays are RPOs. Guess who has the pressure place on him? Hint: he's 26 years old...
That disappointment in the staff to help him out when he needed it is shared by me, and also my disappointment in Hill/Kelce (who both dropped tough but catchable passes) to step in and make a huge play when he needed their support.
Good points
I was due for one!
There's a line from an old Harry Chapin song back in the 70's - a tame and toothless tabbly can't produce a lion's roar. In this case, it felt like the opposite. We have a fire-breathing dragon and we asked him to be careful. It is wild that asking him to play carefully is what makes him feel frantic.
The play with Pringle over the middle is the one that caught me, because that play sure looks designed for the Pringle/Kelce routes to be the first read as the middle defender is put into conflict. For everyone critical of Reid/Bieniemy and the play-calling, this is exactly the kind of play call we wanted. Day 1 install type play with an easy read and an easy throw to get back into rhythm.
In hindsight, of course we can wish they had run the ball more, but I don't think it really stands up to analysis. From 21-3 until 21-24, they ran the ball more often than they passed it on first down. The pick by Hill was on an RPO where Mahomes made a bad read and throw. The two drops came on second (and third) with six yards to go. We probably could have run on second down, but I'd rather give Mahomes two looks on second and six than risk an unsuccessful run and face say third and four with only one shot. All of those situations called for balance and that is what the team did - running just over half the time.
For the first time in his career, Mahomes came up small in a play-off game. It is still shocking to write those words, and it is bitterly disappointing because the bracket had opened up wide for us after surviving Buffalo.
I'm not sure the pick by Hill was an actual RPO, I think it was a screen. BUT, I agree it was a very poor read.
I totally agree with you on the ball being better off with Mahomes on 2nd and 6/etc the vast majority of the time. I think in this particular instance, given the way the defense was playing things combined with the way Mahomes was playing, giving him a mental break and taking what was there (going even beyond "balance") would have been the superior decision, at least for a drive or two.
And I totally agree on the disappointment after things opening up so well for KC!
Mays and Tice on the Athletic's podcast called the Hill interception an RPO, but that was in their postgame pod where they had only seen it live. I have not rewatched yet; this one needed a little more settling for me. But I believe you.
And I think you are exactly right about the nuances of the game and play calling. As much as Mahomes feels automatic, he is an actual person and maybe needed a mental break. My guess is after five years together, Reid and Bieniemy have such utter confidence in Mahomes - I know as a fan, I always expect his next play to be brilliant. He had never seemed to give an inch mentally in five years.
As the Bengals were coming back, I was sitting on the couch (ok, pacing the living room) feeling sorry for their fans. I thought it would be better for them to just lose by 30 the way it looked like it was heading and go into the offseason appreciating a great run than to think they had a shot just to be reaped and have their heart cut out of their chests just when they thought they might be able to do it. Because for that entire 90 minutes, I expected the very next play to be the one where it clicked back into gear and they were going to resume doing terrible things to that secondary.
If I was feeling that, a thousand miles away having never actually met them, how much more were Reid and Bieniemy thinking that, having lived and breathed with this guy for five years? I am sure they have a Henne package of plays that are easer reads and easier throws and just put less on the QB than what they give Mahomes. It probably would have behooved them to call a couple Henne plays in there. But how could they have known it in real time?
Interesting, I trust Nate and Robert completely and so they could be right and I'm wrong! It looked like a screen call to me given the setup, but Nate's forgotten more about offensive design than I'll ever know hahaha. GREAT podcast.
And man, you say it really well in terms of the "what the crap just happened" feeling and how unbelievable it was when things never snapped back into focus.
Even after all the bad that happened in the 2nd half, when KC won the coin toss I genuinely assumed it was over. I can't imagine how much more surprising it was for the coaches!
Great job on this. It just seems like Mahomes had a very bad half at the worst time possible, and nobody could bring him out of it. It happens sometimes. It sucks, but it happens. That's what I think I've come to at this point.
I don't think you're off there tbh.
Well done as usual, Seth. I forced myself to go through this as part of moving on! In this case, for me, you confirmed what I saw: PM inexplicably getting shook, and AR not making adjustments to take what was offered and get a chance for a reset. Any small change could have swung this one, which is what makes it so hard to swallow. The only thing I'm uneasy about is PM's mindset - as this is now on every coach's radar. It's a vulnerability that is out there from early season performance and now repeated in the big game. He's got the throws, the moves, the mental game (reading and manipulating the field), but the emotional part came back to bite him, for reasons he only knows. This may be a hard fix because of that fact. Hopefully just a relapse that he'll get past.
Now, I have to jump the gun and look ahead, because ... I can't help myself! A few observations that I'm certain you'll be covering soon:
- The AFC will be much improved - featuring QBs and O's that rival our own
- I'm concerned that the current formula of dominant O with average D may not stand up in the new competitive world we're in. To what degree do we need to reload on O to keep up?
- I believe (as I think you suggest above) that the inability to replace Watkins made a season-long difference for PM and the O, and in Veach's comments, have not heard that as a priority (he's rightly started with D-line, which could and should be a make-over)
- Out of curiosity, I wonder if the O schemes are more complex than necessary, given the weapons we have. I ask because it seems to take a long time to work new players in, and if we infuse some new talent, would like to see things adapt quickly (seems to me that other teams can do this move quickly than we do). We have seen rookie WRs and new additions make immediate impact around the league, but it seems to take a couple of years for KC to get them into the line-up.
That's enough for now - and as always, fact check me on the observations from my lyin' eyes!
Thanks - ‘sir’ is not something I hear very often!!
The AFC West with its new coaching lineup should also be more competitive, even if ARod doesn't head for the rockies (r at least more stable / lower drama). Our sense of invincibility in the division - and the luxury to not have to be so beholden to division matchups in roster construction - is effectively gone.
I'm more confident in the front office (and ownership) than the coaching staff at this point, and expect we'll see new pass catchers even if we aren't mentioned for every top target. Veach went after JuJu last offseason, which I'd considered impossible amidst the OL re-make. Noah Gray was drafted to play the X role Sammy vacated, and for whatever reason didn't produce. Cutting a 5th rounder isn't common, but it also wouldn't shock me if they didn't get what they hoped for.
In general, I expect much more aggressive bottom-of-roster/PS churn than was feasible due to COVID the past couple of years. And continuation of the 2nd chance strategy with signings like Josh Gordon and Arnette.
I'm talking more about character risk than talent risk when I say 2nd chances. My belief is this roster is already maxed out in terms of the number of guys to whom the Chiefs security department has to devote time daily, ala Dale Carter in his day. I'm all for 2nd chances, and if you can separate the signal from the noise there's an edge to be had that few franchises can grab like the Chiefs. Tyreek and Kelce are in their own way both examples that worked out very well for both parties. Still, Chiefs Kingdom already has another emotional chapter coming up in April (or thereabout) as the book is closed on last year's tragedy, and my hope is that we'll give ourselves a bit of room to breathe rather than piling on new risks or distractions.
I think they missed on their first few choices at the other WR spot, so they got a little stuck.
I’m hoping you’re correct - I do admire Veach’s aggressiveness and hope we get the essential bump in talent to counter the advancements going on across the division and conference
I think it'll be interesting to see where the division goes. It's worth noting that a lot of Denver's success defensively has been due to Fangio as of recently, so I wouldn't assume they'll continue to be good there. Of course, the hope for them is that they'll finally somehow take advantage of all the weapons on offense, which they'll need at least average QB play to do!
LAC are going to be a tough out, to be sure, and we'll see what the Raiders do.
It's interesting to me re. the mental aspect, because he's bounced back from tough plays and in tough moments a million times before.
I definitely think improving the defense will be the first priority. It's been "OK" with some spurts of a lot worse and some spurts of a lot better, but it sure would be nice to add more talent there and look for consistency.
Still sad. That said, shared this article to Facebook. Trying to make you some money so you can insulate the kitchen a little better.
haha we've needed it this winter!
Mahomes needs to take a page out of other QB's and hold some off the books practices with whomever Veach brings in this offseason. And maybe some behavioral therapy.
On that last play of the first half, I'm still not certain why he didn't roll out and run the touchdown in with all the defense congregated on the left side of the field. I don't buy the "it wasn't the play call" excuse as Mahomes improvises regularly.
I think he was trying to get rid of the ball quickly and avoid running the clock out. If I were a betting man, I don't think he even considered the possibility that Hill would cut inside rather than heading for the SL and either scoring or getting out of bounds.
Mahomes has caught almost all the flak there, but Hill shouldn't have cut back.
I am good with the conclusions but want to make this observation. In the first half, the run game or a pass to a RB out of the backfield was used effectively mixed in to the play calling.
SECOND HALF ADVANTAGE NOT USED Vs 3 man front. The second half, this wasn't true despite the fact that the Chiefs were facing largely a 2 deep secondary and a 3 man front. The run game, which advanced the ball extremely effectively in the first half, should have been a complete focus of the offense until the Bengals made an in-game-flow adjustment.
MISCUE BEFORE THE HALF: I am completely disturbed by the pass call to the flat to Hill just before the half. it should have been a pass to the end-zone or better yet, a run play called. Either it's complete or incomplete. then clock Management would not matter. As it was, the clock expired. This was a stupid play to call. and is one of those things that a critique of Andy Reid in the past(Clock Mgmt) came back to bite us. Or ditto if it was Eric Bieniemy who was calling the plays.
Even if the play-caller decided a run would allow the 5 seconds to expire, the pass would work. Either a TD or incomplete stopping the clock. A Field Goal could then be kicked. As it stands, this was a horrible play that took 3 points off the board if not 6.
I don't disagree with any of that!
Well, it turns out Mahomes himself called the play. But it was still a play-calling error.
A run play would have been do or die. No time outs. I guess I still have more faith in Mahomes than the O line.
But DID Mahomes actually call the play? Or just make a poor decision? He was supposed to hit something quick over the middle and just didn't do it.
I wonder how many times we've seen Tyreek become a decoy to suck two defenders away from the action. Unfortunately, in this case (and others), Mahomes forced it to him anyway.
You pass it into the end zone. Complete, great. incomplete, it stops the clock, then Butker gets a FGA.
I must have misread this sentence: "it should have been a pass to the end-zone or better yet, a run play called."
unlike you, I don't think the run play uses 5 seconds. If it fails, immediately call T/O and kick FG.
No time outs left.
The juxtaposition of the halves was just bizarre. I still don't understand it. I really hope the missed opportunity doesn't haunt us into the future.
It is haunting me still as well.
It'll always be a missed opportunity, but in 10 years we may barely remember it!
Thanks for the analysis Seth. I definitely was hoping they would run the ball more in the second half. They were having success and it was obvious Mahomes was affected by the looks he was given. I know scrambling and "school-yard" type plays are a part of his game, but, it seems to me that some of his poorer performances involve his "happy feet." He creates a lot of pressure by moving out of clean pockets. I have always thought that Rodgers was a master of avoiding pressure with more subtle moves forward/backward within the pocket. I am not sure if Mahomes just does not trust the line, but, I bet it would be easier for them to block if he didn't bail on the pressure so quickly.
Rodgers has gone back and forth with similar issues throughout his career. It's a matter of harnessing the good but not overdoing it (ie only going when necessary). I agree, whenever he has a performance that is subpar for him it often involves happy feet.
Thanks Seth. We will likely never know why Patrick got so jittery in the 2nd half. Trying too hard not to lose rather than playing to win? I don't know. What I do know is that when he began his 'sped up processing' it was readily apparent, to even the most casual fan. AR/EB should have immediately changed up the play calling to take some pressure off him and calm him down. We could have run them out of those light boxes and made the later throws much easier. It would have taken so little to have won that game after the start that they had. Fantastic opportunity lost.
My biggest fear is that these problems, rare though they are, won't get fixed unless those with the power to correct them do an honest assessment of the issues with their eyes wide open and their egos checked at the door.
Aka: "Schottenheimer's" affliction
I like your take.
Appreciate it!
AR has long taken the hit as a poor game manager, starting w clock management - my concern is that he (and EB) don't seem to be in the moment when in-game adjustments need to be made. It may be that they are just too committed to their game-plans. As Seth reminds us, the game is really about match-ups and those who are most nimble with adjusting where required during games are more likely to win in close games.
I think it is really hard to have the right play call and position groups on the field AND manage the game. For instance, the silly timeout AR took in the first half. That cost us a chance to open the playbook at the 1 yard line with :09 left in the half. For all of the (correct) points about Patrick getting sped up, apparently AR/EB did too. The running lanes were easily available AND we were protecting a lead. This is the classic Andy Reid game for which he has been criticized since Philly. Eagles fans weren't wrong; hopefully, Andy and Clark will address this.
Someone wrote me an email asking if Reid is more of a brief-writing attorney rather than a trial lawyer, and it's a good comparison. He's not TERRIBLE in the moment, but is slower to react than the best are in part because of his trust in his prep (I believe).
It's tough to know where that balance lies in trusting the process/prep (when you're one of the best to ever do it in that aspect) and knowing when to pivot. I think he should lean towards pivoting a little faster.
Do you think that a different OC may help him with that slower reaction or is he so in charge of that aspect, that another OC may not make a difference?
I think EB has done a nice job overall, and the reality is it's always going to be Reid's offense. I think EB can help push things though, as he's a voice in the room that is valued.
It was strange to see given how often he's come through in similar (or even much worse) situations.
And yes, an honest assessment as to how to help him in those moments (perhaps protecting leads isn't as much his forte as gaining them or coming from behind) needs to be done!
Great job as always Seth. You mentioned something very briefly in the Times Ours podcast which I have been thinking about as well - maybe it’s time to stop doing so many RPOs. Just seems like these didn’t work as well this year, particularly when we ran the ball. I imagine it’s a huge undertaking in researching the success rate for the full season, but I would be curious. Maybe it’s better for our o-line when they know they are running?
I think the RPOs need to be mostly scrapped. 1) They do not allow linemen to go downfield and crush the second level in case a handoff is made. 2) Defenses are defending them very well. 3) It is too tempting to Patrick to pass when he needs to hand off (that is on him, but please know his mentality).
I have come to think the RPO is where the innovation we are used to is being spent. Please, let's move on from them...
I think they should be a feature of the offense, but not a predominant methodology. That said, they should continue to utilize play action consistently given the advantage it brings.
Generally speaking, OL treat RPO's like a run play (that's how you can ID them usually, watch the line!). I don't have a good grasp on the success rate, but I do think that being bound to the limited route and run concepts that go through them may be a bit of a hindrance when using them too frequently.
Thanks, Seth for another season of wonderful breakdowns of the Chiefs! I think myself and all Chiefs fans had assumed that Mahomes was infallible and would never have a bad game or even half and we are now astonished to learn that he is indeed human. However, I place much more blame on Reid/ Bieniemy for the play calling in the 2nd half than I do on Mahomes bad play. I love throwing the ball but when a defense is completely daring you to run the ball and you have a lead and using clock is beneficial..... then run it down their throat! It's really hard to throw the ball into 8 man coverage in the NFL. I really thought the Chiefs had moved past all the early season offensive struggles with shell coverage and had learned to take what the defense gives them. I am definitely going to gift a subscription of Chief in the North Newsletter to Andy Reid and also Bieinemy... Hopefully they will read it!!!!! Thanks Seth- I can't wait for the NFL draft to start dreaming about next season!
Thanks so much for the kind words! I've been absolutely thrilled to keep this site going and can't thank you enough for your support.
I agree that we never saw that coming from Mahomes, and also that at a certain point the coaching staff needs to try to adjust to what they're seeing (which is not only just the way CIN is playing, but the way Mahomes is having some struggles). Give him a break on at least one drive or so and at least see if you can grind out a few first downs while he mentally resets.