Patrick Mahomes' 3rd down dominance should make him the MVP frontrunner

Mahomes continues to be the outlier on the game's most important down

Throughout the course of his career, Patrick Mahomes has been different from other quarterbacks. Different in style. Different in early success. Just… Different.

Almost nowhere has that difference been more stark than on third down.

Seth Keysor @RealMNchiefsfan

Patrick Mahomes is legitimately different on third down. And by different, I mean better. I wrote about this a little while back, and you should read it as you count the hours until kickoff.

theathletic.comWhy Patrick Mahomes’ remarkable success on third-and-long is not a coincidenceThird down is considered the most important down in football, and the Chiefs’ QB is a master at converting even the low-percentage chances.

To make a long story short, since becoming a starter Mahomes has outperformed every other quarterback on the down that separates offenses from success or failure on a given drive. And frankly, it hasn’t been that close. As I wrote for The Athletic, Mahomes has consistently thrown deeper, been more successful, and avoided mistakes more frequently on third down than anyone else.

People think of Mahomes running around and performing magic tricks on 3rd down, and while that’s sometimes true, it often looks like the above play. Mahomes reads defenses quickly and and accurately, so he’s able to drop back, confirm where the open spot will be, and fire for what looks like an easy play. But if it were easy, everyone would do it. It’s not, so they don’t.

This sort of success above everyone else isn’t supposed to be sustainable. But in 2020, Mahomes has set himself apart in a crowded MVP field by continuing to be the best quarterback in the league when it matters most.

I gathered 15 quarterbacks’ 3rd down statistics (starting with the top performers in ESPN’s QBR and then adding some other notable quarterbacks). Most require no explanation (completion percentage, touchdowns, interceptions, sacks taken, passer rating, first downs rushed for, yards per attempt). A couple others might be more unfamiliar.

Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A): this is a similar stat to yards per attempt, but factors in touchdowns and interceptions.

Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play): This statistic basically gauges how much more likely a team is to score after a given play (so the higher the number, the better it is), and factors in scrambling and sacks taken as well as all the other statistics normally tracked for a quarterback. It’s the most comprehensive stat we have.

The MVP candidates this year are almost universally regarded as Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers. Generally speaking, Wilson is the favorite among analysts. And perhaps that makes sense. Wilson, after all, leads the league in touchdown passes (26, to Mahomes’ 21) and is 5th in yards (trailing Mahomes in that category). He also has demonstrated multiple times the most dangerous deep ball in the NFL and is a spectacular player.

But an examination of what is happening on 3rd down shows that Mahomes is so far separate from Wilson on there that it makes it difficult to argue that Wilson has been more valuable to his team’s success than Mahomes.

(Note: EPA/Play is courtesy of rbsdm.com, an absolutely tremendous site set up by Ben Baldwin, an analytics wizard who does great work in the area).

Let’s talk numbers, dealing with the whole Mahomes vs Wilson debate first. The numbers are ugly for Wilson on third down. He’s barely completing half of his throws and has as many interceptions as touchdowns, while averaging about a third of Mahomes’ AY/A and (despite his reputation as an athletic quarterback) only running for a pair of first downs compared to Mahomes’ 7. Most importantly, Mahomes’ EPA/Play is in an entirely different stratosphere.

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In short, Mahomes is not just better than Wilson on 3rd down, but Wilson is markedly worse than any other quarterback who is in the MVP conversation, and many who aren’t. While that shouldn’t be the only factor taken into consideration, such a large gap on 3rd down weighs heavily against Wilson when compared to Mahomes.

Mahomes’ performance on third downs is something close to absurd because of his combination of ability to read defenses, extend plays, decisiveness, athleticism, and arm strength to test windows and drive the ball where others might not be able to.

This is a 3rd and 14 conversion where Mahomes sets things up by first understanding that Mecole Hardman is on an island against a defender and will be running right to the sticks. He keeps his eyes on the middle of the field to prevent the defenders in that area from drifting towards Hardman. He then fires the ball down the field from the opposite hash, putting heat on it to arrive quickly.

That speed of the ball is important. Given the length of the throw going across the field, the defender who is over the top of Hardman would be able to drive on and contest any throw that had less “sauce” on it. As it is, he arrives the moment the ball is caught. Take one or two miles per hour off that throw and it’s incomplete or perhaps even picked off. While it’s not one of the throws people stare at slack-jawed, it’s one that few quarterbacks can make successfully.

When comparing Mahomes the group we’re looking at here, the only two quarterbacks who come close to his performance on 3rd down are Brady and Rodgers. And “close” is a relative term. Brady hasn’t run for nearly as many first downs, and his Y/A and AY/A are much lower than Mahomes. Additionally, his EPA/play is closer to Josh Allen than Mahomes.

Really, the only competition on 3rd down to Mahomes is Rodgers, who has long been considered the king of 3rd down (at least, prior to Mahomes taking over the league). And even he trails Mahomes in every category, with the exception that Mahomes took one more sack than Rodgers.

There’s no consistent answer for Mahomes on 3rd down. If you get pressure, he’s able to drift away long enough to buy time for locating an open receiver.

The Jets’ Quinnen Williams starts to get some movement up front here, and in theory that should speed up Mahomes’ process. It doesn’t, though, as he calmly just moves away long enough for Kelce to gain his inevitable separation, and the Chiefs convert.

Mahomes is also more than capable of seeing where defenses are leaving a mismatch presnap and adjusting, such as this 3rd and 5 conversion (well, touchdown) to Tyreek Hill.

Mahomes saw before the snap that the Jets were playing with a single safety deep, which left the cornerback on an island alone with Hill. Mahomes audibled and went right to Hill after holding the safety with his eyes, which resulted in six points for Kansas City.

And of course, even if the defense does absolutely everything right, there’s a chance Mahomes snaps his fingers and turns everything into dust.

There’s no rational reason the Jets don’t “win” this play and force the Chiefs to try a field goal or perhaps even punt (if the defenders are able to sack Mahomes on the play). Their intial coverage is good and they get heavy pressure right out of the gate. These are snaps that kill drives.

Except it didn’t. Mahomes extended the play running left, and then threw one of the most hilariously anticipatory throws of the season, putting the ball in front of Hardman (who made a nice catch in his own right). This play resulted in the Chiefs getting a yard short of the first down marker, and would have been a first down had the pursuing defender not made a miracle shoestring tackle.

The drive ended on the following play (we can talk about the wisdom of a delayed handoff on 4th and short another day), but this play demonstrates why Mahomes is so far and away beyond any other quarterback. No situation is untenable, no efforts are enough, and 3rd and long means as little to him as 3rd and 5.

There are a lot of reasons Patrick Mahomes should be the frontrunner for Most Valuable Player. But dominating third down, the money down for quarterbacks, makes it an easy decision.