Thank you for this, Seth! With all the help they had to give Brown last year, I suspect that Reid & Veach are "looking forward to the challenge" of replacing him. It's not as if he's a genuine "star left tackle."
Wonderful article Seth, as always! Love the deep dive breakdowns on players. I wish you had time to do it for all 53 on the roster LOL.
This article, and the more I think about it, really leads me to believe they're going to draft an OT this year. It's pretty clear that the amount of help they had to give Brown would be better spent on a rookie learning the ropes, while hoping he can blossom into a star, rather than pay a premium for an above-average tackle who likely has hit his ceiling.
PS - that last gif with Toney 'chipping' (destroying?) the end with just his shoulder was HILARIOUS!
This pretty much sums up how I feel about Orlando Brown Junior. I don’t regret the trade, when they lost Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz there was great uncertainty. Reminds me of when they drafted Mecole Hardman because of the things going on with Tyreek Hill. Sometimes in the face of uncertainty boldness is the best move. So I think the trade paid off (obviously, they are Super Bowl champions) but I am deathly afraid signing a good player to a huge contract would cripple them going forward. I tell you, I am more and more impressed with Brett Veach and his administration as every day goes by. Thanks for the review, Seth!
A slightly above average T who thinks he's a world beater and expects a world beater contract. Time to move on unless the market completely humbles him and reduces his asking price dramatically. With all the help they give him and with Mahomes elusiveness (which makes all OL look better) I suspect that they can find a comparable replacement for a fraction of the price or a dramatic upgrade for not much more. I'd rather they pay Tunsil 25 than OBJ 21, for example.
I trust in Veach and Andy to make a good decision. We need at least one above average tackle to defend the Superbowl in my opinion. I guess that points to a trade, either for a vet like Tunsil or up in the draft to get a ready to go tackle. Gotta be right about it either way.
Great article. Solidly confirms what most of Chiefskingdom feels about him. Love to have him back, but at the right price. Veach is next level. Thank you.
What do you think of Yosh Nijman of the Packers? He’s likely to cost a R2 pick & $4.6M? He is a solid RT & could play LT in a pinch. That would be about the same price as Wylie, & solve 1 OT issue. He & a draft pick OT could compete for the LT slot w/ the loser going to RT. He played LT when Bakhtiari was out for 6 games for GB.
Amen! This cements my thoughts on Brown and not just because they are practically the same as yours, Seth (you add some good takes!). I have only been concerned about paying him elite or market setting money like he wants. The concern is it seems he wants to be paid like the best more than actually being the best and understanding he is not there (probably won't get there either). A slightly above average player who could be overpaid a little due to the circumstances. I appreciate your take that he was better on review than expected. The Cincy game just can't happen....ever...inexcusable unless he was noticeably hurt. Looking forward to a new option. I am fine with him coming back at KC's price or lower if he can't get what he wants on the open market. It is a business.
In Seth’s last post I speculated that perhaps moving on from Orlando and trading up in the draft for a replacement might be a good solution. Is that where Brett is heading? Certainly Orlando may yet re-sign or we grab a free agent but I am excited to see who we might select if the draft is our chosen route.
Does not sound as though there is a surplus of franchise LTs available in this draft but if we just find a slightly flawed choice we will have a version of Orlando at only $4-5M per year for five years (yes, the fifth year will balloon). That is a hell of a victory and allows us to allocate cap to other areas of need.
Lot of “ifs” in this scenario but I have got my popcorn ready!
Seth - Did you chart how many times he received help? I think any snap where there is help should be an immediate "Neutral" snap or lower and any loss with help (as long the help didn't actively contribute to the loss) should be seen as a bad loss, almost another category.
I just don't see how a rookie LT could give give that level of protection. But Creed Humphrey, while not a tackle, blew the doors off as a rookie. And Trey Smith wasn't far behind. And last year it was the secondary. So, I'm in over my head at this point.
Nice job, Seth. Also, I've noticed there's almost always a negative tone in the reviews of OBJ. I asked myself why? I then realized it's OBJ himself who sets the tone with his contract aspirations, not (mostly) those doing the reviews. As always, thank you!
Seth, that is the best rationale I've heard for letting Brown go. You nailed it with the "does the player expand the playbook" test. I have more confidence in Veatch's draft solution(s) than I do paying more money than a player is worth. Best of luck to a classy guy. Brown will find his way.
I haven't really been a fan of Brown since game 1 but I was hopeful. I hate losing the 1st rounder for him and only getting 2 years but with Veach in a draft and some other LTs hitting the market, I'm excited for our chance to make something better.
Seth thanks. Love the analysis and numbers. Two things to add last season. Brown held out and missed all the important formation reps well into camp. Came in a little out of shape and was chasing it for the first 4 games. Second poor decision on agent made very late in the game. He's Mahomes good friend but does not show commitment to the team by fairly valuing his talent. Think he should be in around 10th to 15th rather than top 5. Chiefs have to move on and stick with the plan if they are not reasonable.
Agreed, great article. Will be interesting to see what happens
Thank you for this, Seth! With all the help they had to give Brown last year, I suspect that Reid & Veach are "looking forward to the challenge" of replacing him. It's not as if he's a genuine "star left tackle."
Wonderful article Seth, as always! Love the deep dive breakdowns on players. I wish you had time to do it for all 53 on the roster LOL.
This article, and the more I think about it, really leads me to believe they're going to draft an OT this year. It's pretty clear that the amount of help they had to give Brown would be better spent on a rookie learning the ropes, while hoping he can blossom into a star, rather than pay a premium for an above-average tackle who likely has hit his ceiling.
PS - that last gif with Toney 'chipping' (destroying?) the end with just his shoulder was HILARIOUS!
Couldn’t agree more!
This pretty much sums up how I feel about Orlando Brown Junior. I don’t regret the trade, when they lost Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz there was great uncertainty. Reminds me of when they drafted Mecole Hardman because of the things going on with Tyreek Hill. Sometimes in the face of uncertainty boldness is the best move. So I think the trade paid off (obviously, they are Super Bowl champions) but I am deathly afraid signing a good player to a huge contract would cripple them going forward. I tell you, I am more and more impressed with Brett Veach and his administration as every day goes by. Thanks for the review, Seth!
A slightly above average T who thinks he's a world beater and expects a world beater contract. Time to move on unless the market completely humbles him and reduces his asking price dramatically. With all the help they give him and with Mahomes elusiveness (which makes all OL look better) I suspect that they can find a comparable replacement for a fraction of the price or a dramatic upgrade for not much more. I'd rather they pay Tunsil 25 than OBJ 21, for example.
I trust in Veach and Andy to make a good decision. We need at least one above average tackle to defend the Superbowl in my opinion. I guess that points to a trade, either for a vet like Tunsil or up in the draft to get a ready to go tackle. Gotta be right about it either way.
Great article. Solidly confirms what most of Chiefskingdom feels about him. Love to have him back, but at the right price. Veach is next level. Thank you.
What do you think of Yosh Nijman of the Packers? He’s likely to cost a R2 pick & $4.6M? He is a solid RT & could play LT in a pinch. That would be about the same price as Wylie, & solve 1 OT issue. He & a draft pick OT could compete for the LT slot w/ the loser going to RT. He played LT when Bakhtiari was out for 6 games for GB.
Amen! This cements my thoughts on Brown and not just because they are practically the same as yours, Seth (you add some good takes!). I have only been concerned about paying him elite or market setting money like he wants. The concern is it seems he wants to be paid like the best more than actually being the best and understanding he is not there (probably won't get there either). A slightly above average player who could be overpaid a little due to the circumstances. I appreciate your take that he was better on review than expected. The Cincy game just can't happen....ever...inexcusable unless he was noticeably hurt. Looking forward to a new option. I am fine with him coming back at KC's price or lower if he can't get what he wants on the open market. It is a business.
In Seth’s last post I speculated that perhaps moving on from Orlando and trading up in the draft for a replacement might be a good solution. Is that where Brett is heading? Certainly Orlando may yet re-sign or we grab a free agent but I am excited to see who we might select if the draft is our chosen route.
Does not sound as though there is a surplus of franchise LTs available in this draft but if we just find a slightly flawed choice we will have a version of Orlando at only $4-5M per year for five years (yes, the fifth year will balloon). That is a hell of a victory and allows us to allocate cap to other areas of need.
Lot of “ifs” in this scenario but I have got my popcorn ready!
Seth - Did you chart how many times he received help? I think any snap where there is help should be an immediate "Neutral" snap or lower and any loss with help (as long the help didn't actively contribute to the loss) should be seen as a bad loss, almost another category.
I just don't see how a rookie LT could give give that level of protection. But Creed Humphrey, while not a tackle, blew the doors off as a rookie. And Trey Smith wasn't far behind. And last year it was the secondary. So, I'm in over my head at this point.
Nice job, Seth. Also, I've noticed there's almost always a negative tone in the reviews of OBJ. I asked myself why? I then realized it's OBJ himself who sets the tone with his contract aspirations, not (mostly) those doing the reviews. As always, thank you!
Seth, that is the best rationale I've heard for letting Brown go. You nailed it with the "does the player expand the playbook" test. I have more confidence in Veatch's draft solution(s) than I do paying more money than a player is worth. Best of luck to a classy guy. Brown will find his way.
I haven't really been a fan of Brown since game 1 but I was hopeful. I hate losing the 1st rounder for him and only getting 2 years but with Veach in a draft and some other LTs hitting the market, I'm excited for our chance to make something better.
Seth thanks. Love the analysis and numbers. Two things to add last season. Brown held out and missed all the important formation reps well into camp. Came in a little out of shape and was chasing it for the first 4 games. Second poor decision on agent made very late in the game. He's Mahomes good friend but does not show commitment to the team by fairly valuing his talent. Think he should be in around 10th to 15th rather than top 5. Chiefs have to move on and stick with the plan if they are not reasonable.