Thank you for this, Seth! With all the help they had to give Brown last year, I suspect that Reid & Veach are "looking forward to the challenge" of replacing him. It's not as if he's a genuine "star left tackle."
It'll be quite the needle-threading. Going from him to below average would be quite the dropoff and would result in significantly more help being needed, so they're going to invest something to be sure that doesn't happen IMO, whether it's trading up for a talented rookie or finding a vet who is at least "decent."
I'm not sure you (or I) have a perfect grasp of how much help they sent his way. To MY eye, more or less confirmed by Seth's charting, it was quite a lot of help. And even when they left him on an island, it was well-prepared-for by the previous action, and they didn't count on him for TOO much.
I think they can be as good or slightly better, overall, with a number of different options.
Personally, even with a GREAT left tackle, I think giving your tackles a little extra help, right along, is a net benefit. They'll stay fresher and be less injury-prone. That's important for these athletic, 6'6'', 320-pound giants. Very rare in this world, and the best ones play on the defensive side.
You want those guys to take care of you, but you also need to reciprocate. That was one of the few negative things Geoff Schwartz had to say about Reid. Yes. He CAN do it, but how many times a game is it reasonable to expect that giant to do it? Much easier on his mind and body if he knows he can count on the outside chip, and has a narrower lane to defend.
As far as "lanes clogging up" and lack of "hot routes," I think the extra time gained by hanging in to block and/or chipping forces the defense to EXPAND another beat, and "hot" is another beat later, with "chippers" entering the pattern in areas opened-up for them by the expansion.
There are a ton of pick-and-roll concepts your chippers can exploit. Slow down the pass rusher and pivot away for a catch. Pass rusher can't cover you and get to the quarterback at the same time.
Anyway, my point is that Andy, in the past, was more about getting 5 eligibles into the pattern at the snap, at the expense of some other ways to win plays. I think their issues at offensive tackle have forced them into more of an unstoppable, quick-passing offense that sets up the run and the shot plays by slicing and dicing teams up.
I bet they're pretty confident they can draft somebody at least decent, especially after the clinic they put on during the stretch run. They didn't have to ask more than Brown or Wylie had to give. They gave opponents fits on the ground and in the air with their 3-TE sets, their motion, and their misdirection.
This reminds me of the days when you were charting Donald Stephenson's snaps, and he didn't have a glaring number of losses, but you could see how much they were scheming to help their tackles, and with Stephenson 1-on-1 in space as a very rare change-up, he stole a few wins off surprise factor, alone. Those were horrible offensive lines, but Haley motioned and mis-directed around it in 2010, with Dexter McCluster motioning across the formation all day long. They never should've run him up the middle. He was never the same after he got rolled up under the DL. Dex left and Jamaal right (or vice-versa) gave opponents fits, even though their line was awful. Even after Dex lost that step he had the first part of his rookie year.
Wonderful article Seth, as always! Love the deep dive breakdowns on players. I wish you had time to do it for all 53 on the roster LOL.
This article, and the more I think about it, really leads me to believe they're going to draft an OT this year. It's pretty clear that the amount of help they had to give Brown would be better spent on a rookie learning the ropes, while hoping he can blossom into a star, rather than pay a premium for an above-average tackle who likely has hit his ceiling.
PS - that last gif with Toney 'chipping' (destroying?) the end with just his shoulder was HILARIOUS!
What people miss on that block is that Toney uses his change of direction to complete fool the edge rusher into thinking he's taking the first step toward the sidelines on his route, then he plants his outside foot hard, drives back at the rusher with impeccable timing, and blindsides him, all in half a second, after standing 3 feet away at the snap. Incredible!
This pretty much sums up how I feel about Orlando Brown Junior. I don’t regret the trade, when they lost Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz there was great uncertainty. Reminds me of when they drafted Mecole Hardman because of the things going on with Tyreek Hill. Sometimes in the face of uncertainty boldness is the best move. So I think the trade paid off (obviously, they are Super Bowl champions) but I am deathly afraid signing a good player to a huge contract would cripple them going forward. I tell you, I am more and more impressed with Brett Veach and his administration as every day goes by. Thanks for the review, Seth!
I definitely don't regret the trade either! They got 2 years of cost-controlled quality LT play, and will get (assuming he walks) credit for roughly a 3rd round pick for compensatory picks' sake (though whether they actually get one will depend on what else happens in FA). That's worth a low 1st rounder I think, especially with the way the franchise was poised to contend!
Especially considering that the picks we got back turned into Nick Bolton and Melvin Ingram! 4 years of Bolton + 2 years of OBJ + half a season of Melvin Ingram for a 1st (Odafe Oweh), 3rd (Brandon Stephens), and 4th (Tyler Wallace) and 2022 5th(Montrell Washington, I think)!
A slightly above average T who thinks he's a world beater and expects a world beater contract. Time to move on unless the market completely humbles him and reduces his asking price dramatically. With all the help they give him and with Mahomes elusiveness (which makes all OL look better) I suspect that they can find a comparable replacement for a fraction of the price or a dramatic upgrade for not much more. I'd rather they pay Tunsil 25 than OBJ 21, for example.
Agree with that sentiment. Definitely feel like kc can get a decent replacement in FA, or maybe brown doesn't get his money elsewhere and has to take the kc deal.
I trust in Veach and Andy to make a good decision. We need at least one above average tackle to defend the Superbowl in my opinion. I guess that points to a trade, either for a vet like Tunsil or up in the draft to get a ready to go tackle. Gotta be right about it either way.
Great article. Solidly confirms what most of Chiefskingdom feels about him. Love to have him back, but at the right price. Veach is next level. Thank you.
What do you think of Yosh Nijman of the Packers? He’s likely to cost a R2 pick & $4.6M? He is a solid RT & could play LT in a pinch. That would be about the same price as Wylie, & solve 1 OT issue. He & a draft pick OT could compete for the LT slot w/ the loser going to RT. He played LT when Bakhtiari was out for 6 games for GB.
Bakhtari suffered a knee injury in 2021 & missed the first 5 weeks of the 2022 season. He missed 1 more game due to a lingering issue w/ the knee after Week 6.
If Aaron Rodgers goes to NYJ, the Packers may shift to full rebuild mode. Bakhtari could become available. He won’t be cheap in draft capital or against the cap, but he is truly a top 5 LT.
If the Chiefs wanna save cap space at OT: a draft pick at LT, Lucas Niang at RT & Nijman to swing tackle as insurance on both OT spots makes a lotta sense.
Amen! This cements my thoughts on Brown and not just because they are practically the same as yours, Seth (you add some good takes!). I have only been concerned about paying him elite or market setting money like he wants. The concern is it seems he wants to be paid like the best more than actually being the best and understanding he is not there (probably won't get there either). A slightly above average player who could be overpaid a little due to the circumstances. I appreciate your take that he was better on review than expected. The Cincy game just can't happen....ever...inexcusable unless he was noticeably hurt. Looking forward to a new option. I am fine with him coming back at KC's price or lower if he can't get what he wants on the open market. It is a business.
In Seth’s last post I speculated that perhaps moving on from Orlando and trading up in the draft for a replacement might be a good solution. Is that where Brett is heading? Certainly Orlando may yet re-sign or we grab a free agent but I am excited to see who we might select if the draft is our chosen route.
Does not sound as though there is a surplus of franchise LTs available in this draft but if we just find a slightly flawed choice we will have a version of Orlando at only $4-5M per year for five years (yes, the fifth year will balloon). That is a hell of a victory and allows us to allocate cap to other areas of need.
Lot of “ifs” in this scenario but I have got my popcorn ready!
I don't believe the Chiefs will have to trade up this year to land a tackle of Brown's quality. The end of round one is looking like the sweet spot for big but not overly athletic tackles. That said, Veach will probably be prepared to deal if there's an early run on the position.
You may be correct but I am prepared for a trade up. If not for a LT then for a DE or WR. But as of the moment, LT and perhaps RT are our urgent needs. Selfishly, I am hoping for a trade up. I will be attending the draft and not being a night owl, I would just as soon not be awaiting the 31st pick at midnight! 😉🤞
Good points. I did like what seth said though about they just need to find an average to above average guy who can develop. Maybe the draft is an option but FA might have an affordable dude.
Seth - Did you chart how many times he received help? I think any snap where there is help should be an immediate "Neutral" snap or lower and any loss with help (as long the help didn't actively contribute to the loss) should be seen as a bad loss, almost another category.
You actually nailed it; Any snap with help (barring something weird happening, like needing to hold up another 4-5 seconds in pass pro once the help has totally left) is a neutral at best, generally speaking.
The other issue that it's hard to measure his "help" from Mahomes. How often did Mahomes "save" OBJ from a pressure or sack due to his mobility?
I've always thought that OBJ would be "very good" or excellent only in a run dominant offense, but not in a pass protect offense. Maybe he'll excel with a team like the Raiders or Tennessee - teams that have a power running game and that take the defenses' attention away from the passing game.
I just don't see how a rookie LT could give give that level of protection. But Creed Humphrey, while not a tackle, blew the doors off as a rookie. And Trey Smith wasn't far behind. And last year it was the secondary. So, I'm in over my head at this point.
Nice job, Seth. Also, I've noticed there's almost always a negative tone in the reviews of OBJ. I asked myself why? I then realized it's OBJ himself who sets the tone with his contract aspirations, not (mostly) those doing the reviews. As always, thank you!
It's DEFINITELY concerning as to whether a rookie could come in and be equivalent. They likely could not. But in theory, the hope would be that with a talented guy (they'd likely have to trade up) combined with Heck as a coach, Reid/Mahomes doing their thing, and Joe Thuney next to him he could be at least OK in year 1.
The question is not, could a rookie come in and do as well as Brown on average in year one. The question is, can a rookie come in and do as well as Brown on the average of his first five seasons, and can the Chiefs effectively cover for a rookie during the front end of his learning curve?
That $20M unspent helps us retain our best blocking back (McKinnon) and maybe helps us afford to sign one of the better big-bodied/chipping WRs in the league (MVS's old Green Bay buddy Allen Lazard). Give me those two plus a quality rookie LT any day. We can play 13 personnel with the best of them, and provide TE help, too!
Seth, that is the best rationale I've heard for letting Brown go. You nailed it with the "does the player expand the playbook" test. I have more confidence in Veatch's draft solution(s) than I do paying more money than a player is worth. Best of luck to a classy guy. Brown will find his way.
Great acknowledgement. Brown was big in the playoffs when pat got hurt. Of course it doesn't help that the dude that hurt him was browns assignment. Still he stepped up.
I haven't really been a fan of Brown since game 1 but I was hopeful. I hate losing the 1st rounder for him and only getting 2 years but with Veach in a draft and some other LTs hitting the market, I'm excited for our chance to make something better.
IIRC, because of all of the picks involved, the Chiefs effectively traded a high second round pick for Brown. Here's the summary from when the deal went down:
Chiefs are likely to get R3 compensatory pick in 2024 for losing Brown. Miami loses its R3 pick again next year for tampering w/ Brady, so it’ll be 1 slot higher. An extra top 100 pick is nothing at which to sneeze.
Seth thanks. Love the analysis and numbers. Two things to add last season. Brown held out and missed all the important formation reps well into camp. Came in a little out of shape and was chasing it for the first 4 games. Second poor decision on agent made very late in the game. He's Mahomes good friend but does not show commitment to the team by fairly valuing his talent. Think he should be in around 10th to 15th rather than top 5. Chiefs have to move on and stick with the plan if they are not reasonable.
Agreed, great article. Will be interesting to see what happens
Thank you for this, Seth! With all the help they had to give Brown last year, I suspect that Reid & Veach are "looking forward to the challenge" of replacing him. It's not as if he's a genuine "star left tackle."
It'll be quite the needle-threading. Going from him to below average would be quite the dropoff and would result in significantly more help being needed, so they're going to invest something to be sure that doesn't happen IMO, whether it's trading up for a talented rookie or finding a vet who is at least "decent."
I would be shocked if the answer is not "both".
We really do not have a left tackle backup except Thuney. And I doubt they will put all their eggs in a rookie basket regardless of pedigree.
I'm not sure you (or I) have a perfect grasp of how much help they sent his way. To MY eye, more or less confirmed by Seth's charting, it was quite a lot of help. And even when they left him on an island, it was well-prepared-for by the previous action, and they didn't count on him for TOO much.
I think they can be as good or slightly better, overall, with a number of different options.
Personally, even with a GREAT left tackle, I think giving your tackles a little extra help, right along, is a net benefit. They'll stay fresher and be less injury-prone. That's important for these athletic, 6'6'', 320-pound giants. Very rare in this world, and the best ones play on the defensive side.
You want those guys to take care of you, but you also need to reciprocate. That was one of the few negative things Geoff Schwartz had to say about Reid. Yes. He CAN do it, but how many times a game is it reasonable to expect that giant to do it? Much easier on his mind and body if he knows he can count on the outside chip, and has a narrower lane to defend.
As far as "lanes clogging up" and lack of "hot routes," I think the extra time gained by hanging in to block and/or chipping forces the defense to EXPAND another beat, and "hot" is another beat later, with "chippers" entering the pattern in areas opened-up for them by the expansion.
There are a ton of pick-and-roll concepts your chippers can exploit. Slow down the pass rusher and pivot away for a catch. Pass rusher can't cover you and get to the quarterback at the same time.
Anyway, my point is that Andy, in the past, was more about getting 5 eligibles into the pattern at the snap, at the expense of some other ways to win plays. I think their issues at offensive tackle have forced them into more of an unstoppable, quick-passing offense that sets up the run and the shot plays by slicing and dicing teams up.
I bet they're pretty confident they can draft somebody at least decent, especially after the clinic they put on during the stretch run. They didn't have to ask more than Brown or Wylie had to give. They gave opponents fits on the ground and in the air with their 3-TE sets, their motion, and their misdirection.
This reminds me of the days when you were charting Donald Stephenson's snaps, and he didn't have a glaring number of losses, but you could see how much they were scheming to help their tackles, and with Stephenson 1-on-1 in space as a very rare change-up, he stole a few wins off surprise factor, alone. Those were horrible offensive lines, but Haley motioned and mis-directed around it in 2010, with Dexter McCluster motioning across the formation all day long. They never should've run him up the middle. He was never the same after he got rolled up under the DL. Dex left and Jamaal right (or vice-versa) gave opponents fits, even though their line was awful. Even after Dex lost that step he had the first part of his rookie year.
Wonderful article Seth, as always! Love the deep dive breakdowns on players. I wish you had time to do it for all 53 on the roster LOL.
This article, and the more I think about it, really leads me to believe they're going to draft an OT this year. It's pretty clear that the amount of help they had to give Brown would be better spent on a rookie learning the ropes, while hoping he can blossom into a star, rather than pay a premium for an above-average tackle who likely has hit his ceiling.
PS - that last gif with Toney 'chipping' (destroying?) the end with just his shoulder was HILARIOUS!
LOVED that gif.
Yes, Wilhelm! That was worth watching several times.
I had to look up who that was again cause I couldn’t believe it was a wr 🤣🤣
I laugh every time I see that clip!
Watch Creed become a casualty in the destruction that is Trey Smith. Love these grown man blocks
What people miss on that block is that Toney uses his change of direction to complete fool the edge rusher into thinking he's taking the first step toward the sidelines on his route, then he plants his outside foot hard, drives back at the rusher with impeccable timing, and blindsides him, all in half a second, after standing 3 feet away at the snap. Incredible!
It was phenomenally done!
Just watched it (again) and just noticed that before I saw your comment. Great coaching, great execution.
Couldn’t agree more!
This pretty much sums up how I feel about Orlando Brown Junior. I don’t regret the trade, when they lost Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz there was great uncertainty. Reminds me of when they drafted Mecole Hardman because of the things going on with Tyreek Hill. Sometimes in the face of uncertainty boldness is the best move. So I think the trade paid off (obviously, they are Super Bowl champions) but I am deathly afraid signing a good player to a huge contract would cripple them going forward. I tell you, I am more and more impressed with Brett Veach and his administration as every day goes by. Thanks for the review, Seth!
Some folks call him Seth. :) LOL a little typo there. Quick, change it before he notices! HA
I thought maybe he was transitioning...
Amen X 100!
I definitely don't regret the trade either! They got 2 years of cost-controlled quality LT play, and will get (assuming he walks) credit for roughly a 3rd round pick for compensatory picks' sake (though whether they actually get one will depend on what else happens in FA). That's worth a low 1st rounder I think, especially with the way the franchise was poised to contend!
Especially considering that the picks we got back turned into Nick Bolton and Melvin Ingram! 4 years of Bolton + 2 years of OBJ + half a season of Melvin Ingram for a 1st (Odafe Oweh), 3rd (Brandon Stephens), and 4th (Tyler Wallace) and 2022 5th(Montrell Washington, I think)!
Great bit of info there. Didn't realize how good of a haul it was. Ingram was a good piece when they added him.
A slightly above average T who thinks he's a world beater and expects a world beater contract. Time to move on unless the market completely humbles him and reduces his asking price dramatically. With all the help they give him and with Mahomes elusiveness (which makes all OL look better) I suspect that they can find a comparable replacement for a fraction of the price or a dramatic upgrade for not much more. I'd rather they pay Tunsil 25 than OBJ 21, for example.
Agree with that sentiment. Definitely feel like kc can get a decent replacement in FA, or maybe brown doesn't get his money elsewhere and has to take the kc deal.
I trust in Veach and Andy to make a good decision. We need at least one above average tackle to defend the Superbowl in my opinion. I guess that points to a trade, either for a vet like Tunsil or up in the draft to get a ready to go tackle. Gotta be right about it either way.
Great point. A trade seems like a good option if FA or the draft don't turn up anything
Great article. Solidly confirms what most of Chiefskingdom feels about him. Love to have him back, but at the right price. Veach is next level. Thank you.
What do you think of Yosh Nijman of the Packers? He’s likely to cost a R2 pick & $4.6M? He is a solid RT & could play LT in a pinch. That would be about the same price as Wylie, & solve 1 OT issue. He & a draft pick OT could compete for the LT slot w/ the loser going to RT. He played LT when Bakhtiari was out for 6 games for GB.
I was going to ask the same question. He would definitely be an outside the box solution. I’d love to see a dim breakdown on him.
IDK anything about him tbh. Maybe see if Bakhtiari is available instead.
Has bakhtiari played a full season recently? Seems like he's always hurt.
Bakhtari suffered a knee injury in 2021 & missed the first 5 weeks of the 2022 season. He missed 1 more game due to a lingering issue w/ the knee after Week 6.
If Aaron Rodgers goes to NYJ, the Packers may shift to full rebuild mode. Bakhtari could become available. He won’t be cheap in draft capital or against the cap, but he is truly a top 5 LT.
If the Chiefs wanna save cap space at OT: a draft pick at LT, Lucas Niang at RT & Nijman to swing tackle as insurance on both OT spots makes a lotta sense.
Amen! This cements my thoughts on Brown and not just because they are practically the same as yours, Seth (you add some good takes!). I have only been concerned about paying him elite or market setting money like he wants. The concern is it seems he wants to be paid like the best more than actually being the best and understanding he is not there (probably won't get there either). A slightly above average player who could be overpaid a little due to the circumstances. I appreciate your take that he was better on review than expected. The Cincy game just can't happen....ever...inexcusable unless he was noticeably hurt. Looking forward to a new option. I am fine with him coming back at KC's price or lower if he can't get what he wants on the open market. It is a business.
In Seth’s last post I speculated that perhaps moving on from Orlando and trading up in the draft for a replacement might be a good solution. Is that where Brett is heading? Certainly Orlando may yet re-sign or we grab a free agent but I am excited to see who we might select if the draft is our chosen route.
Does not sound as though there is a surplus of franchise LTs available in this draft but if we just find a slightly flawed choice we will have a version of Orlando at only $4-5M per year for five years (yes, the fifth year will balloon). That is a hell of a victory and allows us to allocate cap to other areas of need.
Lot of “ifs” in this scenario but I have got my popcorn ready!
I don't believe the Chiefs will have to trade up this year to land a tackle of Brown's quality. The end of round one is looking like the sweet spot for big but not overly athletic tackles. That said, Veach will probably be prepared to deal if there's an early run on the position.
You may be correct but I am prepared for a trade up. If not for a LT then for a DE or WR. But as of the moment, LT and perhaps RT are our urgent needs. Selfishly, I am hoping for a trade up. I will be attending the draft and not being a night owl, I would just as soon not be awaiting the 31st pick at midnight! 😉🤞
Good points. I did like what seth said though about they just need to find an average to above average guy who can develop. Maybe the draft is an option but FA might have an affordable dude.
Seth - Did you chart how many times he received help? I think any snap where there is help should be an immediate "Neutral" snap or lower and any loss with help (as long the help didn't actively contribute to the loss) should be seen as a bad loss, almost another category.
You actually nailed it; Any snap with help (barring something weird happening, like needing to hold up another 4-5 seconds in pass pro once the help has totally left) is a neutral at best, generally speaking.
Ok good to know that's how you grade it. Did you keep track of how many times he had help? That would be an interesting tidbit.
I thought about it, but time constraints weren't forgiving :(. So I just made sure to note whether it was happening more often as the year went along!
The other issue that it's hard to measure his "help" from Mahomes. How often did Mahomes "save" OBJ from a pressure or sack due to his mobility?
I've always thought that OBJ would be "very good" or excellent only in a run dominant offense, but not in a pass protect offense. Maybe he'll excel with a team like the Raiders or Tennessee - teams that have a power running game and that take the defenses' attention away from the passing game.
I just don't see how a rookie LT could give give that level of protection. But Creed Humphrey, while not a tackle, blew the doors off as a rookie. And Trey Smith wasn't far behind. And last year it was the secondary. So, I'm in over my head at this point.
Nice job, Seth. Also, I've noticed there's almost always a negative tone in the reviews of OBJ. I asked myself why? I then realized it's OBJ himself who sets the tone with his contract aspirations, not (mostly) those doing the reviews. As always, thank you!
It's DEFINITELY concerning as to whether a rookie could come in and be equivalent. They likely could not. But in theory, the hope would be that with a talented guy (they'd likely have to trade up) combined with Heck as a coach, Reid/Mahomes doing their thing, and Joe Thuney next to him he could be at least OK in year 1.
The question is not, could a rookie come in and do as well as Brown on average in year one. The question is, can a rookie come in and do as well as Brown on the average of his first five seasons, and can the Chiefs effectively cover for a rookie during the front end of his learning curve?
That $20M unspent helps us retain our best blocking back (McKinnon) and maybe helps us afford to sign one of the better big-bodied/chipping WRs in the league (MVS's old Green Bay buddy Allen Lazard). Give me those two plus a quality rookie LT any day. We can play 13 personnel with the best of them, and provide TE help, too!
I like the keep McKinnon idea.
Seth, that is the best rationale I've heard for letting Brown go. You nailed it with the "does the player expand the playbook" test. I have more confidence in Veatch's draft solution(s) than I do paying more money than a player is worth. Best of luck to a classy guy. Brown will find his way.
Great acknowledgement. Brown was big in the playoffs when pat got hurt. Of course it doesn't help that the dude that hurt him was browns assignment. Still he stepped up.
I haven't really been a fan of Brown since game 1 but I was hopeful. I hate losing the 1st rounder for him and only getting 2 years but with Veach in a draft and some other LTs hitting the market, I'm excited for our chance to make something better.
IIRC, because of all of the picks involved, the Chiefs effectively traded a high second round pick for Brown. Here's the summary from when the deal went down:
#Chiefs get
--Orlando Brown
--Second-round pick (No. 58)
--2022 Sixth-round pick
#Ravens get:
--First round pick (No. 31)
--Third-round pick
--Fourth-round pick
--2022 fifth-round pick
Depends on which chart you use. By the newer ones (which I think are more accurate), it was more like a late 1st rounder. Still good by me!
Chiefs are likely to get R3 compensatory pick in 2024 for losing Brown. Miami loses its R3 pick again next year for tampering w/ Brady, so it’ll be 1 slot higher. An extra top 100 pick is nothing at which to sneeze.
Seth thanks. Love the analysis and numbers. Two things to add last season. Brown held out and missed all the important formation reps well into camp. Came in a little out of shape and was chasing it for the first 4 games. Second poor decision on agent made very late in the game. He's Mahomes good friend but does not show commitment to the team by fairly valuing his talent. Think he should be in around 10th to 15th rather than top 5. Chiefs have to move on and stick with the plan if they are not reasonable.