Looking at the Chiefs offensive data a little closer (and finding good news)

Some data that matches the film is worth looking at to discuss how the Chiefs current offensive situation is unusual... and very fixable.

All right, let’s talk about the Chiefs offense one more time. I swear, it’ll be worth it.

One my primary goals in this job, from the time I started it, is to take all of you with me as I try to gather as much information as I possibly can about this beautiful, chaotic, wonderful sport. The more I learn about the game, the more I see how much MORE there still is to learn and the more I love watching it play out every Sunday (or Thursday, or Monday… Or Saturday in the playoffs. Look, you know what I meant!). And my hope is to bring you with me while I do that.

Because there are so many moving, interconnected parts in football, it can be quite difficult to know the “why” behind things that occur. There’s a lot of nuance into why individual plays fail. It can be schematic (a poor play design), playcalling (poor play timing or attacking the defense incorrectly), execution by many players, execution by just ONE player, the other team just making a terrific play… it’s hard to separate all of those things and try to come up with just One Thing that is The Reason things went wrong on a play. And that just gets harder when you’re talking about hundreds of plays.

Anyways, we’ve talked a lot about the offense struggling a bit this year relative to its norm and how I’d look into making some tweaks. But some really interesting data was unearthed yesterday that I think provides some context into what is going wrong for the Chiefs. Normally, I stick with the film. But numbers can help provide some context and, in combination with film, lead us to some decent conclusions.

(Before we start, here’s a reminder; The Chiefs offense is still very good and has largely gotten in its own way rather than being stopped outright. So when we talk about “struggles,” it’s important to keep that in context. Just worth remembering as a fanbase that has been more than a little spoiled as of late!)

It started with a typical Patrick Mahomes chart, with him at the top right of a measure gauging quarterback play… followed by a few charts where he (gasp) was NOT at his usual top right. I know, I was shocked too.

But we’ll get to that “not upper right” chart shortly. First, here’s the chart Mahomes is (correctly) at the top right, and one that demonstrates the same thing film does this year; That Mahomes remains in a class completely by himself in tough situations.

(NOTE- this chart, and two others we’ll be using here, was created by

Judah Fortgang

, who provides excellent statistical analysis and is worth a follow. You can find him on Substack by clicking his name, and you can find him on Twitter here. The data is PFF’s, and they two are worth a follow)

We’ll talk about what this chart means in just a moment, because I think it has some valuable information. But this information, combined with a few other charts that look at similar data (you know, the ones where Mahomes is NOT in the top right), led me down a path that matches up with the film quite well and answers (I think) the “chicken or egg” question about the Chiefs’ offense not being as good as the last several years along with how fixable things are.

Let’s talk some data on the offense, how it matches up with my own charting, and how I think it leads us right back to a “the Chiefs are going to be just fine” place.