Looking at the different WR tiers, where I'd rank the players reviewed, and discussing how I'd approach the draft from a weapons acquisition standpoint if I were Brett Veach
I LOVE edge rushers who have a "motor" like his. Reminds me of Tambi Hali or Jared Allen. I'll take that trait over long arms and guys like Frank Clark who's motor only works 1/3 of the time all day long.
Based on the info you just gave me, the career yardage leader was one of the first two WRs selected 13 out of 33 years (39%), despite the fact that those players were drafted onto teams that were really bad. You're talking two guys vs THE FIELD, and they are coming out on top 39% of the time? That's actually really impressive.
Good eye; that was my first comment. I subscribed in September, after I decided to give the Time's Ours podcast a second chance and found it much improved from the early days. Seth was always good on there, but it seemed to me like the others took awhile to find their groove (the Time Sours jokes...). I also used to listen to Lock On Chiefs, but I only really enjoyed the episodes with Seth on. Turns out I'm just a pretty big fan of Seth's work.
I wasn't advocating for trading up to get a top 2 WR. I am very much against doing that. That's just a really impressive hit rate, and everything you just mentioned as risks and reasons not to go all in for a top WR adds to just how striking it is that the hit rate is so high for the first two WRs selected in the draft.
The data they are using is a bit thin, regardless of what we decide to glean from it. Why only look at the career yards leader from each group? Seems a bit arbitrary. In the 2001 draft, Reggie Wayne was the 6th WR taken, and Steve Smith was the 11th. Steve Smith had 14,731 career yards to Reggie Wayne's 14,345. By only looking at the top guy, Reggie Wayne isn't included in the dataset at all. It doesn't matter that he only had 2.6% fewer yards, and it doesn't take into account that he played two fewer years. I'm not familiar enough with Soren and Kurtis to know if they are big data guys or not, but I would prefer to work from a dataset that is much more robust than this if I plan on drawing any meaningful conclusions from it.
Thank you for welcoming me into the comments section!
ya. I stopped doing mocks. exercise in utility but impossible to predict what's on Veach's board. I have two players that I would trade up to get(Olave and Jameson). It wouldn't hurt them to take the path of standing pat and taking a WR(as long as the other picks focus on defense that is). Thanks for your hard work!
So I'm just here to yell at you in the comments and the only way I can do that with sincerity is to yell at you before I read the article. Really, Seth, do better. 'kay, now Ima go read what you wrote.
The final chapter of this did not disappoint. Bravo! If you are reading this cause it’s unlocked for all and also because Seth really hates money? What are you waiting for? Hammer that subscribe.
New subscriber and I really enjoyed the series, Seth. It was nice to get your fresh impressions on the class, as there's a fair amount of groupthink out there at this point. You do a great job of marrying your analysis to the raw numbers and making sure that play on the field justifies the hype around certain prospects. Enjoyed the snippets of video to help illustrate your explanations too (I guess you could say I like the cut of your gif)
Great summary and I completely agree with the tiers and thoughts on how to apply the information. Now if all those draft picks don’t burn a hole in Veach’s pocket…
I'm so curious what'll happen with them. We know they have a limited number of first round guys. If one of them slips to a spot they can grab it wouldn't surprise me if they made a move. To me, giving up more than a 3rd and change would be a mistake barring one of the elite edge guys inexplicably falling.
This was GOLD. Great write up. I'm intrigued by Metchie, now. Here's where I would add a caveat to your conclusions specifically on the double-down approach. If I got a Metchie or a Pickens or even a Tolbert in the early 2nd round, I wouldn't necessarily double down on WR - I'd look real hard at TE to see if there's better value there than what drops to you in the 2nd/3rd rounds at WR. While we won't replace Kelce in '23, a new TE replenishes the ball-catcher group and still accounts for JuJu and Hardman being gone next year. Again - great write-up!
I'm all for trading up to 15 or 18 to grab Olave or Williams. It would cost a 3rd & maybe a 7th but would give them a 1A WR, IMHO. Veatch likes to trade up to get HIS GUY... so let's go get him!
I've been working through the roster, locks and existing fringe players to make the 53 and came up with 7-12 open roster spots. I was happy to find that many of the WRs you feel fit our needs were similar to mine and they also matched your tiers. I'm down to Pickens, Metchie and Tolbert as reasonable expectations.
I LOVE edge rushers who have a "motor" like his. Reminds me of Tambi Hali or Jared Allen. I'll take that trait over long arms and guys like Frank Clark who's motor only works 1/3 of the time all day long.
Let’s find this year’s DK Metcalf. This makes me more on board with defense in R1 and then WR in 2-3.
Based on the info you just gave me, the career yardage leader was one of the first two WRs selected 13 out of 33 years (39%), despite the fact that those players were drafted onto teams that were really bad. You're talking two guys vs THE FIELD, and they are coming out on top 39% of the time? That's actually really impressive.
Good eye; that was my first comment. I subscribed in September, after I decided to give the Time's Ours podcast a second chance and found it much improved from the early days. Seth was always good on there, but it seemed to me like the others took awhile to find their groove (the Time Sours jokes...). I also used to listen to Lock On Chiefs, but I only really enjoyed the episodes with Seth on. Turns out I'm just a pretty big fan of Seth's work.
I wasn't advocating for trading up to get a top 2 WR. I am very much against doing that. That's just a really impressive hit rate, and everything you just mentioned as risks and reasons not to go all in for a top WR adds to just how striking it is that the hit rate is so high for the first two WRs selected in the draft.
The data they are using is a bit thin, regardless of what we decide to glean from it. Why only look at the career yards leader from each group? Seems a bit arbitrary. In the 2001 draft, Reggie Wayne was the 6th WR taken, and Steve Smith was the 11th. Steve Smith had 14,731 career yards to Reggie Wayne's 14,345. By only looking at the top guy, Reggie Wayne isn't included in the dataset at all. It doesn't matter that he only had 2.6% fewer yards, and it doesn't take into account that he played two fewer years. I'm not familiar enough with Soren and Kurtis to know if they are big data guys or not, but I would prefer to work from a dataset that is much more robust than this if I plan on drawing any meaningful conclusions from it.
Thank you for welcoming me into the comments section!
Hey, I appreciate that. It's so important to blend the two!
Hey, big same! This whole process has made it a lot more interesting for me. Now, I'm ready to be hurt haha.
Thank you Seth for all of this, really well done and I agree with your conclusions. 2 more sleeps and we'll see, can't wait.
It's an exciting time, thanks for following along!
ya. I stopped doing mocks. exercise in utility but impossible to predict what's on Veach's board. I have two players that I would trade up to get(Olave and Jameson). It wouldn't hurt them to take the path of standing pat and taking a WR(as long as the other picks focus on defense that is). Thanks for your hard work!
You're just mad he has you in tier 6. Bah dumb pah!
Veach said: “As far as what to believe, I wouldn’t believe anything.” Right now? Not Mad, just knowlegable enough to know what I don't know.
Coda! Thanks VERY much for this. I can now confidently root for Jalen Tolbert, someone we should be able to snare without giving up the farm! 🥰👍
I would love to see it!
SETH YOU IDIOT!!
So I'm just here to yell at you in the comments and the only way I can do that with sincerity is to yell at you before I read the article. Really, Seth, do better. 'kay, now Ima go read what you wrote.
The final chapter of this did not disappoint. Bravo! If you are reading this cause it’s unlocked for all and also because Seth really hates money? What are you waiting for? Hammer that subscribe.
JUST PUTTING THIS HERE BEFORE SOMEONE TELLS ME I PUT TIER 3 TWICE!!!!
3a/3b - seems legit to me. 👍 Great review Seth, much appreciated
Dangit, how did it not occur to me to do that????
Because attorneys are notoriously horrible at compromising?
....
Well, you're not wrong.
Years of experience working with all sorts of attorney referral partners. Litigators are the Rambos of the legal world!
New subscriber and I really enjoyed the series, Seth. It was nice to get your fresh impressions on the class, as there's a fair amount of groupthink out there at this point. You do a great job of marrying your analysis to the raw numbers and making sure that play on the field justifies the hype around certain prospects. Enjoyed the snippets of video to help illustrate your explanations too (I guess you could say I like the cut of your gif)
Thanks again and apologies for the dad joke there
Hey, thanks Berg! And it says a lot about me that I laughed out loud at that joke...
Great summary and I completely agree with the tiers and thoughts on how to apply the information. Now if all those draft picks don’t burn a hole in Veach’s pocket…
I'm so curious what'll happen with them. We know they have a limited number of first round guys. If one of them slips to a spot they can grab it wouldn't surprise me if they made a move. To me, giving up more than a 3rd and change would be a mistake barring one of the elite edge guys inexplicably falling.
Have enjoyed this a lot. The wait is almost over. Will be fun to watch
This was GOLD. Great write up. I'm intrigued by Metchie, now. Here's where I would add a caveat to your conclusions specifically on the double-down approach. If I got a Metchie or a Pickens or even a Tolbert in the early 2nd round, I wouldn't necessarily double down on WR - I'd look real hard at TE to see if there's better value there than what drops to you in the 2nd/3rd rounds at WR. While we won't replace Kelce in '23, a new TE replenishes the ball-catcher group and still accounts for JuJu and Hardman being gone next year. Again - great write-up!
I'm all for trading up to 15 or 18 to grab Olave or Williams. It would cost a 3rd & maybe a 7th but would give them a 1A WR, IMHO. Veatch likes to trade up to get HIS GUY... so let's go get him!
I've been working through the roster, locks and existing fringe players to make the 53 and came up with 7-12 open roster spots. I was happy to find that many of the WRs you feel fit our needs were similar to mine and they also matched your tiers. I'm down to Pickens, Metchie and Tolbert as reasonable expectations.