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Interested to see him in preseason and hope he shows out. I appreciate your articles and time investment.

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Appreciate you reading, as ever!

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Jun 6, 2022·edited Jun 6, 2022Liked by Seth Keysor

I am absolutely, positively, definitively ambiguous about this guy. (I believe in clearly defined areas of uncertainty.) But it was cool getting a refresher course in analyzing RB play.

I'll say this: he was certainly drafted by the right team for a RB who is both willing and able to pass-block effectively. There's nothing more important than keeping 15 upright and healthy.

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hahaha I love that first sentence. And I'm fairly ambiguous as well. He has a couple of really valuable skills, BUT it's tough to make a living without a little more at the pro level.

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Jun 7, 2022·edited Jun 7, 2022

😸 I'm glad you liked that first sentence!

BTW I'm a little surprised that no one has called me out for swiping "clearly defined areas of uncertainty" from The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy - the 2nd-funniest book I've read in my life. (Behind only Mark Twain's "Letters From the Earth," although a lot of PJ O'Rourke's stuff comes pretty darn close.)

Geez, did I wander off-topic there or what? Back to our regularly scheduled lunacy....

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I'll be honest, I've never read either sadly :(.

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A guy I knew in high school was an avid fan of HGTTG, but since he demanded everyone call him Dude (pre Big Lebowski), I never took the time to read it.

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😸 Totally understandable! But you can't blame the Guide for that - I don't think that word appears anywhere in any of those books!

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I don't want to be overly negative or provocative, but...CEH has agility? I feel like I don't remember seeing that outside of the time he juked Justin Reid out of his shoes in the 2020 season opener. The only other notable (good) CEH play I can remember is his goal line "bounce" TD against the Steelers, which wasn't really about agility.

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He has exceptional agility, just doesn't have much burst. I think you'd be surprised if you went back and re-watched his snaps how well he moves laterally. Problem is the fact that quick lateral movements don't buy you enough space if you can't win to the edge or to the second level...

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Dumb question, how are we defining these terms? "Agility" = change of direction acceleration and "burst" = linear acceleration? Or is burst more about speed?

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author

That's not a dumb question at all!

As I use them, agility is the ability to move laterally within the phone booth and change directions quickly. Jump steps, jukes, plant and turn, etc. It's a VERY short range thing, basically exclusive to how fast you can change direction or move your feet in that one moment.

Burst/acceleration is your first 2-3 steps AFTER a juke or change of direction. How fast can you get up to your top speed? And what IS that top speed at 2-3 steps?

Does that make sense?

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Okay, that makes some sense. I am actually an astrophysicist (undergrad in physics, PhD in astronomy/astrophysics). In some of my lower-level physics classes I will sometimes mention that when listening to sports people talk about "quick" vs. "fast" (especially in the context of the NFL draft) they are usually talking about acceleration (change of speed and direction) vs. maximum speed. However, this is very basic and I'm not always sure how the more detailed scouting lingo fits into basic physics terms.

So to restate/slightly paraphrase what you're saying, would it be fair to say that:

--- "Agility" is very short-range change-of-direction acceleration

--- "Burst" is a combination of short range acceleration and maximum speed, specifically from a stop or cut?

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Basically, yeah. Though I'd say to be cautious using acceleration at all when talking about agility, as we're sticking strictly with the change of direction (at least I do). Think hopping/cutting from one rushing gap to the next. Then you plant and we're to "burst."

That's a cool background, holy cow, I appreciate you not roasting me for butchering what are surely terms of art in your field!

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It's valid to say "acceleration" when only referring to change of direction! Moving in a circle at constant speed is correctly considered acceleration, even if speed is not changing. (Velocity is speed + direction, so velocity is changing, meaning there is acceleration.)

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Jun 6, 2022Liked by Seth Keysor

Do you know if anyone has ever written in depth about Jamaal Charles? Because he seemed kind of good. At the time.

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Here's Seth's analysis from 13 months ago....

https://mnchiefsfan.substack.com/p/jamaal-charles-belongs-in-the-hall?s=w

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Thanks, BPD. I was just messing w/Seth. I LOVE Jamaal, and still go back and watch some of his highlights on occasion. When I get tired of watching CEH utilize his first round skillz...

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😸 I thought of that right after I posted my comment - "I'll bet Pokey Joe was just getting a little dig at Seth right there." But I decided to leave my comment up in case others haven't seen that....

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That said, I read it again. Because he was soooo great.

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Jun 7, 2022·edited Jun 7, 2022

Like, DUH! 😝

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author

hahahaha

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founding

The Chiefs seem to go through about five running backs a season with injuries and such. So there’s a good chance he gets some looks at some point. If he can hit holes fast enough to exploit light boxes he’ll be a solid addition.

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So Seth, Pacheco only has decent speed @4.37 vs. J Charles game breaking speed @ 4.36. I know, I know game speed.

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author

Correct, on film Pacheco has decent speed vs Charles' game breaking speed :)

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camp body?

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author

I'm guessing he sticks as a ST guy.

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Is it bad that I want to see McKinnon back?

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founding

I’ll take Damien Williams!

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I do too! Seems unlikely, though...

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Unfortunately, he just can't stay healthy. They got a little stretch of health at the end of the year but he was hurt most of the season.

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Jun 13, 2022·edited Jun 13, 2022

I'm happy to say they re-signed McKinnon on Monday. Now if he can just manage to stay healthy...

This move makes me wonder a little bit how confident they really are in Clyde and/or RoJo. The timing of the move - immediately after the latest OTAs - seems somewhat... Interesting.

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I like the depth at a position prone to injuries!

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Jun 7, 2022·edited Jun 7, 2022

Speaking of RB's.... Williams led Chiefs RB's with 57 targets last year, more than all the other RB's combined. Seth, what do you think the chances are that he'll lead them in targets again this season?

Also: Clyde had only 23 targets last year, which strikes me as an absurdly low number. What do you think the chances are that he'll have at least, say, 40 or more this year?

And last: do you think Clyde's low number of targets was more the result of decisions made by Andy, or decisions made by Mahomes?

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Williams is gone, so I'd say the chances are quite low hahaha.

I wish I knew what was going on with Clyde and the passing game. It's one of the weirdest subplots of the 2020 and 2021 seasons. It was hyped as the reason they drafted him.

I'd guess that it's a lack of ability or something they discovered once he was in the building, but the times he HAS been targeted down the field have gone well, so... IDK, it's a mystery!

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Yeesh, I'd forgotten that about Williams! I was kinda looking in a different direction when that news came out. (Real life rudely got in the way of the important things, like my Chiefs fanhood!)

On the offensive side of the ball, I don't know if anything has frustrated me more these past couple of years then the lack of targets for Clyde. We can hope they'll fix that this year. But I'm not particularly confident that they will.

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Jun 8, 2022Liked by Seth Keysor

They're keeping it in their back pocket for when they need to really make a difference. Like in a AFCCG against a nasty QB/WR combo or something...

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Jun 8, 2022Liked by Seth Keysor

Yeah, but that could never really happen, right? 😝

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author

Still hurts!

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I think people are underestimating his speed a little bit. He's very raw and lacks agility for sure but he's definitely very fast and violent in running style. I think the best display of his speed is the long run vs Michigan

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For sure, there's a reason he's a sub- 4.4 guy!

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I am so happy that Jamaal Charles is a Christian, because if I can never manage to hang with him in this life, there's always the next.

Do we pronounce the new spelling eyez-eye-ah? I don't want to butcher it and disrespect the kid.

Hope Isiah has a long and healthy career, but I still have no idea what our running back room is going to look like in terms of production, but I love that this guy can at least block better than someone on our roster.

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author

Man, I wish I knew how to pronounce it!

And I concur, we really don't know what the RB will shape up to be like.

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Ask Nate?

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author

That is not a bad idea.

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Jun 8, 2022·edited Jun 8, 2022

This is off the Pacheco topic but I think it's timely….per Soren, PFF has Orlando Brown as the 28th rated OT in the NFL, and he wants to be paid as if he's the second coming of Willie Roaf.

That's a problem any way you look at it. Thuney has proven he can play well at LT. He's almost certainly better at pass pro than Brown and obviously that's priority #1. And the Chiefs have multiple options for replacing Thuney at LG (which is, after all, the least important position on the field.) Obvious candidates include whoever doesn't win the RT position, but they're not the only options.

A year ago he shot his way out of Baltimore. Now, the way Orlando shot his mouth off on NFL Network, we may be witnessing a repeat performance, whether that's what he intended or not. I doubt that Veach took kindly to the challenge implied in Brown's comments.

FYI: PFF projects him as the 23rd best OT next season, not much of an improvement...

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-2022-offensive-tackle-rankings-tiers

They describe him as a "good but not great starter." Sounds about right.

Meanwhile PFF says Thuney "is the best pass-blocking guard in the NFL."

https://mobile.twitter.com/PFF_Chiefs/status/1478803487286718464

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founding

I think against other than speed rushers he can hold his own. But good food for thought, BPD.

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Jun 9, 2022·edited Jun 9, 2022

You may well be absolutely right about that. But I don't recall seeing or hearing anything along those lines about his time at LT with the Patriots. I know that prior to coming here, he'd allowed just three sacks in his previous 1,733 snaps. (!!!) And I'm almost certain those included all of his snaps at LT. (Still endeavoring to find that info online, but no luck so far.)

Looks as if PFF has that info available but you have to have one of their paid subscription packages in order to access it, which I don't.

We obviously need Seth to do a deep dive on this!

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founding

Oh, I was referring to OBJ.

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Ah.

[set mode=GildaRadner]

Nevermind.

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founding

😁

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author

I don't think the pay thing is commensurate with being the best only, it's also about when you come up for contract, age, availability, trend in level of play, etc.

Thuney sliding into LT for a game or two is not, IMO, proof that he can play well at LT with consistency. And I don't believe we have a viable replacement for him that would be any sort of bet to be even 80% of what he is at LG. I believe you'd be weakening two positions if you did that. If you're going to replace Brown, do it with a tackle.

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Jun 10, 2022·edited Jun 10, 2022

I'm probably wrong here, but I was thinking that Thuney played LT for well over half the 2020 season. That's why his "3 sacks in 1733 snaps" stat grabbed my attention so much.

If you're going to weaken a position, LG is the one to weaken. But I suspect that the $16.7 million saved by trading Brown would buy them a mighty fine LG, with a decent chunk of change left over.

If Thuney really can play LT better than Brown, and they already have or can procure a LG that is 80% of Thuney, then I think my suggestion really does make sense. You weaken yourself somewhat at the least important position in order to improve at the most important OL spot, likely saving some $ in the process. Of course, if Thuney isn't a better LT than Brown then my suggestion makes no sense at all.

And let's not forget that this hypothetical new LG would have a lot of help, with Thuney on his left, Creed on his right, and Andy Heck coaching him up.

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I don't believe he took nearly that many snaps at LT in 2020. Perhaps I'm the one who is wrong, but I believe he took some snaps at RT that season. What he said after he was forced to slide into LT vs CIN was ""I think I had a series or two at right tackle a couple of years back."

Additionally, that 16.7 mil isn't going to buy you anything at LG this year, let alone a good player. You'd absolutely downgrade the position substantially for 2022, and then (barring a stroke of luck) have to pay a fair amount to guarantee yourself good play at the position in future years (maybe nearly as much as Thuney's deal, given how NFL contracts are).

It just seems like an unnecessary bet on multiple things working out when you've got multiple birds in the hand already, right now. At least, that's how I view things in terms of risk mitigation. Thuney is an unknown at LT other than his lack of measurables and a handful (in the big picture) of snaps. LG would almost certainly be downgraded.

To me, if you're going to replace Brown, you need to either get someone in the draft or find someone who has plenty of proven LT tape.

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I'm pretty sure you're right about his limited number of snaps at LT. I'm not sure where I picked up the opposite impression. Maybe he played more LT in college or something, I dunno.

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Could be college for sure! I feel like I remember hearing that as well, but at this point IDK anymore haha. That said, the fact that he was able to jump in like he did was CRAZY impressive.

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Also, I'll be honest, I don't see the issue with Brown's comments on NFL Network. I feel like we put players in this position where we hate it when they say stock, non-answer answers but when they're honest (and he's 100% right this is not a season to go in with a backup LT, as is true every season) we tend to get upset.

If they're bugged by anything I'd guess it's his absence from OTA's, even though they're voluntary.

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I guess we just took his comments differently. To me, when he said "you can't go into the season with a backup LT" he was saying to Veach, "I'm irreplaceable, and you have to sign me no matter how much money I'm demanding." All of which is demonstrably false.

If that's how Veach took it as well, I doubt he was real pleased by that.

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I tend not to read that much into what they say, but that's of course a matter of opinion!

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founding

Hearing his audio quote, I think it was a poor choice of wording, not a throwing-down-the gauntlet. Regardless, I think his play does not warrant top pay (PFF says #28 tackle) and I hope Brett doesn’t blink in the negotiations. If Orlando holds firm to his stated goal of becoming the top-paid LT, he is certainly undeserving of the level of compensation now. And if he looks to maintain that expectation long term without earning it, I feel we need to cut ties soon to avoid being held for ransom.

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Right, he's right at that cusp (IMO the 28th ranked tackle is underrating him given his ability to be just as good against higher level competition as he is against lower level competition, a valuable skill... as well as his development within the offense as the year progressed) where it's tough to know precisely how to proceed.

Might have to let him play out the tag and see what happens. If his ask is already top of the market, there's not a ton of risk there for the team other than potential long-term alienation.

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founding

I love the idea of having him play on the tag. My only fear is that he might refuse to sign and threaten to sit out all or the first 7-8 games. That would certainly announce his true intent to use his leverage at the highest level. Have no guess as to whether that could be in play, but I am nervous that it might.

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He might. Few players are willing to, but he's financially secure and so he could.

That said, he also seems like a legacy guy. I think "left tackle for Patrick Mahomes" is something he wants as his legacy. If he holds out to that extent the odds of him ever sticking in KC long-term aren't high IMO.

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Sorry for more off-topicness but an article at The Athletic today really grabbed my attention as it relates to expectations for KC's D-line.

Most would agree that Chase Young is one of the true young studs among edge rushers. The article's writer described his start so far as a "rousing success." But dig a bit deeper and maybe that's not quite so apparent. This is relevant to the Chiefs because of George Karlaftis, whom I'll get to shortly…

Young's 2nd season was cut short by injury, so in 24 games so far he's averaged just 0.375 sacks/game (9 total) with a <9% pressure rate. There's no doubt he's immensely talented. This just shows how difficult it is for an Edge to make an immediate impact in the NFL.

I doubt that anyone thinks Karlaftis is as talented or naturally gifted as Young is. Yet there are some who seem to imagine

that Karlaftis is going to have a huge immediate impact, not only with his own production but because he'll require double-teams that free up others to do damage. If nothing else, Chase Young's career so far teaches us that we should dial back those expectations quite a bit.

Perhaps Karlaftis will be able to match Young's pressure rate, plus come up with maybe 4 or 5 sacks. I see absolutely no reason to expect more than that. Which means that if the D-line is to improve its pass rush, it's going to come down to the brutally inconsistent Frank Clark to do it. (Yikes.) We know Chris Jones will be Chris Jones, if healthy. We know that the other DT's and Edges will occasionally get pressures and rarely get sacks. That leaves Clark as the only major variable on the D-line.

If he can't show us "good Frank Clark" then Spags once again will have to resort to blitzes to try to generate pressure. And with a whole bunch of very young LB's and DB's in coverage that's a risky proposition at best.

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Counting on rookies to consistently contribute along the DL at anything above an average level is almost always a sucker's bet, sadly. If Karlaftis is able to be consistently average with flashes of above average I'll be happy.

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founding

Definite possibility of a firm maybe on this one

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Perhaps

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