Insanity: trying to beat the Chiefs with the blitz is a non-starter
As the Ravens showed Monday night, attempting to rattle Patrick Mahomes by sending extra defenders is a sure way to get torched in 2020
“The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.” -Albert Einstein (probably not really him, but still)
“And how is that working out for you?” -Dr. Phil
“WHY????” -Sergeant Terry Jeffords
The Baltimore Ravens had a game plan, and through thick and thin they decided to stick with it. Well, mostly thin.
Before we start, there’s some history here. In 2018, Mahomes’ first year as a starter, zero blitzes (with no safety over the top and the line of scrimmage loaded with defenders) gave him significant problems. The Patriots, Broncos, and Ravens all saw success against Mahomes stacking the line of scrimmage and making him guess who was actually rushing. Sometimes it was four, but often it was five or more. The point was that Mahomes had trouble figuring out pre-snap who was coming and dealing with the immediate pressure if the protection calls failed.
Fast forward to last night. The Ravens are a team built around aggressive blitz packages and trusting their secondary on the back end, often with man coverage. They played Mahomes and Andy Reid similarly to how they did two years ago.
The thing is, this isn’t two years ago. And Patrick Mahomes is light-years better as a quarterback than he was midway through 2018.
On the very first drive of the game, the Ravens showed their first pressure package on 2nd and 9. They send five pass rushers after stacking the line of scrimmage, while dropping another into the shallow portion of the field. Again, the idea is to confuse Mahomes and either collect the sack or force him into a poor decision.
Neither of those things happen, though. Instead, Mahomes immediately and calmly goes right to the vulnerable matchup created by this call, a lone defender who doesn’t have outside leverage against Kelce. It’s an easy pitch and catch for a first down.
This should have served as a warning shot for the Ravens that things are different for Mahomes in 2020 than they were in 2018. One would think his blistering 2019 performance against them (another multiple-touchdown performance with over 300 yards) would’ve given them notice.
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But the Ravens had a plan, and they stuck to it, trying the entire night to confuse Mahomes by stacking the line of scrimmage. They tried sending extra guys, they tried dropping extra guys into coverage. None of it mattered.
On this 2nd and long in the 2nd quarter, the Ravens try to confuse Mahomes’ reads by dropping multiple defenders who were at the line and sending a blitz from farther back. Once again, Mahomes knows exactly where to go with the throw once the ball is snapped, and the Chiefs pick up an easy first down.
Throughout the night Mahomes destroyed the Ravens blitz attempts, calling out protections that allowed him to have time and throwing where the defense was weak. It was a master class in how to beat an aggressive defense pre-snap, and a stunning demonstration for the entire NFL world as to how far Mahomes has come mentally as a quarterback.
On this “gotta have it” 3rd and 5 in the 4th quarter (during the very brief time the game almost turned into a contest), the Ravens continued to bang their head against a brick wall by sending yet another aggressive blitz towards Mahomes, this time trying to delay it around the left side of the line in hopes of disguising the pressure. In a repetition of what he’d done all night, Mahomes watched the rushers come… and calmly flipped the ball to mismatch (a secondary defender trying to come across the field on Edwards-Helaire) created by the aggressive look.
Mahomes’ was mentally 1 step ahead of the Ravens throughout the night, as was Andy Reid, who dialed up a number of blitz-beating screen designs on the night.
The Ravens seemed ill-prepared for Reid’s legendary screen prowess, which is almost remarkable in its hubris. However, that’s a similar feel to their expectation that Mahomes would be beaten mentally by looks he’s long become accustomed to torching. It was insanity as a game plan, particularly when it was shown right out of the gate that it wouldn’t work. Mahomes just isn’t the same player he was a few years ago, at least mentally.
Physically? He’s just as good, and maybe even better. And that’s the second piece of insanity in trying to beat Mahomes with aggressive pressure. Even if you get a free rusher, he’s so absurdly good at buying extra time that the vulnerability in coverage might not be worth it.
The Ravens actually “win” on this blitz initially, getting that coveted free rusher with a straight shot at Mahomes and taking away his first read momentarily (from what I can tell with the broadcast angle, it’s Watkins underneath). This should be a sack or a forced throw into coverage.
Instead, Mahomes buys an extra split second by moving up and to his right and fires a “are you kidding?” ball across his body while being hit to Hill. First down.
Imagine how disheartening this is for a defense. You get the call “right” on a quarterback who has been beating you mentally all game, and it still doesn’t matter. And Mahomes wasn’t just doing this with his arm, either. In the 4th quarter he showed yet another problem with rushing him aggressively, particularly while utilizing man coverage.
Here, the Ravens again stack the line (remember that definition of insanity we were talking about?) but only send four, trying once against to confuse Mahomes’ read after the snap. It’s likely someone blew a contain assignment here, but tough to say with certainty. Baltimore gets a little push along the interior, but it’s irrelevant as Mahomes immediately recognizes he has a wide open field to scramble for the first down. This was a backbreaking 3rd and 10 conversion, and signaled the end of a miniature comeback for the Ravens.
Mahomes broke the Ravens’ pressure packages with his pre-and-post-snap reads repeatedly. He broke them with his physical ability repeatedly. And sometimes, he used both.
This was a brilliant play call on 3rd and 15 designed to take advantage of the Ravens’ aggressive secondary. The route combination of Hardman (out and up) and Hill (crossing the field) forces Baltimore’s secondary to make a choice. Cornerback Marcus Peters, who loves trying to jump routes, thinks he has an opportunity to take the ball from Mahomes.
The problem is that’s precisely what the hope is on this play, as it leads to Hardman being wide open down the field. All Mahomes has to do is buy enough time for the route to clear, which Mahomes does by drifting back and to his left away from the rush, knowing Kelce’s chip on the left side should keep that rush contained from the edge. The end result is the same as so many other plays Monday night: a huge gain for the Chiefs.
The Ravens had a game plan against Kansas City, and they did their best to stick with it. The problem is that plan was flawed from the start.
Some teams (like the 49ers and Chargers) have shown that with a top-notch secondary and exceptional pass rush from the front four, Mahomes and the Chiefs can be slowed down. But trying to generate pressure through aggressive blitz packages, or trying to confuse Mahomes by stacking the line of scrimmage, went by the wayside a while ago.
It will be interesting to see what Bill Belichick cooks up for Reid and Mahomes this upcoming Sunday. But I can virtually guarantee it won’t be the things he’s tried in the past. As the Ravens showed last night, trying the things that worked on Mahomes in 2018 is foolish, and doing it for an entire game is insanity.
I left this comment on the other article. You must break down the Hardman to CEH to Mahomes to CEH screen pass. It will make the most beautiful GIF of all time. I need your analysis even if it's just "WOW".
Too many words in your title, Seth. Should have went with, "Insanity: trying to beat the Chiefs". 😉