How Clyde Edwards-Helaire mattered in his first start

Little differences don't move the stats sheet much, but add up over the course of a game.

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Running backs don’t matter, etc.

The narrative about running backs has shifted so much over the course of the last half-dozen years that the above statement has become widely accepted. What it really means is that over the course of a season, efficiency stats largely aren’t affected by what running back a team has. That’s partly because passing the ball is so much more efficient overall, partly because there are so many competent running backs in the pros, and partly because “success” running the ball often depends more on scheme and blocking than the individual.

That said, the collective stats over the course of an entire season don’t necessarily reflect what happens in individual situations. That’s the nature of statistical analysis, and although the general numbers matter a great deal, some of the ways a talented running back can affect an individual game has gotten lost in the conversation.

Which brings me to Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the Chiefs rookie running back.

I’ve written extensively here about Edwards-Helaire here, discussing how his skillset is perfect to contribute to the Chiefs immediately, as well as how his lateral agility is freakish when broken down.

On his first night as a Chief, Edwards-Helaire demonstrated those traits in spades. But he also demonstrated how a superior talent at running back, even if it doesn’t move the needle in a big way statistically over the course of the season (that’s been demonstrated to me repeatedly by people much smarter than me), DOES matter. Let’s take a look at a few situations Edwards-Helaire moved the needle for Kansas City against the Texans.

Early in the 3rd quarter, Kansas City faced 2nd down with 3 yards to go. The Chiefs elected to run the ball to try and gain a quick first down, but the blocking didn’t hold up. Bad news? Well, no.

Watch what happens with the initial blocking. Because the Texans do a decent job moving down the line, the gap isn’t really there. Despite having no real space to run through, Edwards-Helaire is able to, ahem, make something out of nothing.

He runs through a pair of defenders (balance through contact is truly one of the most important traits for a runner) that meet him at the line of scrimmage, shaking free of what should be a stop at the line of scrimmage. He then makes a nice cut outside, showing off his lateral agility and burst for an extra 5-6 yards. What should have been a stop for no gain becomes 11 yards.

Again, EPA per play isn’t going to reflect what “could have” happened, and it’s going to get balanced out by stuffs at the goal line having a negative value (which is something we all saw as the game moved along), which means that in the overall statistical picture this snap is small potatoes. But it was the difference between 3rd down and a fresh set of options, and it was manufactured out of nothing.

Passing the ball is always going to be more efficient than running, especially for the Chiefs. But making plays happen where other runners would fail is how a running back can matter.

Edwards-Helaire’s first career touchdown shows another example of turning “meh” into “whoa,” though this one came on a play that obviously impacted the stats sheet a great deal more. Everything we know about analytics tells us that running the ball on 1st and 10 is a terrible idea, in part because of how many things need to go right for a run play to work. However, with a superior talent like Edwards-Helaire, the list of things that need to go right decreases dramatically.

(Please note I’m still in favor of KC throwing the ball pretty much every time on 1st and 10, for the record)

Once again, look at where the first contact (and potential contact) occur here. There’s a linebacker looking to fill the gap here, and Edwards-Helaire does a nice job pressing towards the right side of the line as far as he can in order to get the linebacker moving that direction. It doesn’t entirely work, but does get the linebacker to a spot where he can’t line up square on Edwards-Helaire once he cuts back. The intelligence to press and then the balance through contact to shrug off the tackle attempt without losing speed is impressive.

What he does after that goes beyond just impressive, though. He’s met in the open field by safety Justin Reid, who on paper is a significantly quicker athlete. Edwards-Helaire doesn’t care much about paper, though, and puts move on Reid that is best described as “filthy.” His surprising burst thereafter does the rest, and the Chiefs put up 6 points.

Again, this isn’t about whether CEH had a certain yards per carry or another general statistic, it’s about situational football and making an impact in little moments. It’s at least worth noting that the Chiefs didn’t have a 3-and-out drive until late in the 4th quarter, and the work CEH put in was part of that.

A final example came to close out the game. After a failed onside kick by Houston with the Chiefs leading 31-20, the game was essentially over with 2:31 left to play. However, the Texans did still possess a pair of timeouts, and so in theory a stop would mean they had some sort of snowball’s chance in hades. This is the sort of situation the Chiefs didn’t necessarily close out strong in recent history.

Edwards-Helaire’s first run was a 4-yard gain on the stats sheet, but every yard was earned and it accomplished a great deal more than simply moving the ball 4 yards.

Edwards-Helaire is met almost immediately by defenders pursuing down the line, as well as an edge defender that does a good job controlling the edge once the middle of the line gets stymied. Edwards-Helaire should get stopped at the line of scrimmage here, but instead cuts back with that lateral agility and falls forward through contact for 4 yards.

Again, by statistical measures that play doesn’t matter much. But situationally gaining 4 yards here matters a great deal, allowing them to remain on the ground killing clock (and forcing Houston to burn precious timeouts).

The next run sealed the game for the Chiefs.

J.J. Watt (who was terrorizing the Chiefs offensive line in a way that shouldn’t get overlooked) manages to get immediate penetration here, but he loses his balance (perhaps tripping over Reiter as he comes through). Despite that, he’s right in CEH’s lap as he gets the ball. In order to keep the play from being ruined, Edwards-Helaire has to put on the brakes and immediately change direction. He then locates where a hole has opened up on the cutback and bursts through it. The strong finish over the top of a secondary defender finishes the run.

Edwards-Helaire’s 125 yards and touchdown aren’t what made him matter against the Texans. The reality is on a per-play basis the Chiefs may have averaged more than that had they handed the ball off a little less and thrown it more.

But again, it’s not the total yardage or even necessarily his efficiency that made him matter. Rather, it was situational football and individual plays. Converting a 3rd and short. Manufacturing yards out of nothing to prevent the team from being put in a worse situation. Closing strong to help ensure a win. Those little things aren’t going to matter as much in the aggregate when stats are counted at the end of the year, but to win individual games they absolutely do.

One thing to watch moving forward will be that they continue to lean on Mahomes and don’t get away from what makes them a dominant offense (again, the more Mahomes throws on early downs, the better). The run game is always going to be too inconsistent and not explosive enough to match the passing game (for example, see the multiple plays in which the blocking made it impossible for CEH to create anything at all, especially at the goal line). The Chiefs are at their best throwing the ball 70% of the time or so, depending on how many defenders opponents line up in the box.

But Edwards-Helaire’s excellent start will give the Chiefs an edge on a few extra plays per game, which will in turn lead to more opportunities for the league’s best offense. It will also force teams to re-think any strategy of leaving light boxes and daring the Chiefs to run. Which is bad news for a league that already lacked answers for Mahomes and company.